Joby Aviation Stock: FAA Approval Could Spark 5-Year Rally

Joby Aviation, an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft maker, went public in 2021 and saw its stock initially surge before falling back to around $9. The company impressed early investors with its progress but faced setbacks due to regulatory delays and broader economic challenges like high interest rates.

Despite a high valuation of 83 times this year's sales, a new analysis suggests a major catalyst could drive the stock significantly higher over the next five years. The core argument is that the company's technology and partnerships are strong, but it's stuck waiting for a key government green light.

Joby's primary aircraft, the S4, boasts a longer range and higher speed than its closest competitor, Archer Aviation's Midnight, due to its efficient tilt-rotor design. The company has conducted test flights internationally and secured backing from major partners like Toyota, Delta Air Lines, and Uber.

These partnerships are strategic: Toyota will aid in mass production, Delta plans to use the S4 for airport shuttle services, and Uber will integrate the flights into its app. Joby also holds a contract with the U.S. Department of Defense.

For a pre-revenue company like Joby, regulatory approval is the single most important event. The company expects the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to fully approve its commercial flights in the U.S. by late 2026. This approval would unlock its business model and allow revenue to start flowing.

Analysts project that with FAA clearance, Joby's revenue could skyrocket from an estimated $53 million in 2025 to $458 million in 2028. This represents the transition from a speculative concept to a commercial reality, which is critical for justifying its current premium valuation.

The long-term market potential is vast. Industry forecasts suggest there could be 30,000 eVTOLs globally by 2045. If Joby executes well post-approval, it could capture a meaningful share of this emerging urban air mobility market.

The investment thesis is high-risk, high-reward. The analysis suggests that if Joby hits its revenue targets and maintains a high sales multiple, its stock could more than triple over five years. However, any further delays or regulatory setbacks could severely damage its prospects and stock price.