Anthropic IPO: $1.3 Trillion Valuation and What It Means for AI Stocks

Anthropic, the AI company behind the Claude models, has taken a major step toward going public. In its latest draft prospectus, the company and some existing investors plan to sell 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each. That would raise $57.75 billion to $64.35 billion for the company and selling shareholders.

Additionally, Anthropic has lined up a separate $26 billion private placement with seven tech heavyweights, including Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, and Taiwan Semiconductor. Including that placement, the total amount raised could reach $90.4 billion, surpassing the $85.7 billion raised by SpaceX earlier this year.

Based on fully diluted shares, the IPO range implies a valuation of roughly $1.19 trillion to $1.32 trillion, or up to $1.41 trillion including the private placement. That's about 32% to 46% higher than Anthropic's private valuation in May, but below the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion speculated earlier.

Anthropic generated $17.0 billion in revenue in the third quarter, up 47% from the second quarter. Annualized, that's about $68 billion, putting the IPO at roughly 19 to 21 times sales. The company swung back to a $567 million operating loss in the third quarter after a brief profit in the second.

The roadshow is underway, and shares could start trading on the Nasdaq as soon as late next week. The final price could be above, within, or below the range, depending on demand.

Anthropic's IPO is the first major test of AI valuations since the recent tech sell-off. Its reception could set the tone for other AI companies hoping to go public and influence investor sentiment across the sector.

The involvement of Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, and TSMC as cornerstone investors signals strong confidence in Anthropic's technology and business model. These companies are also among Anthropic's largest suppliers and partners, which could deepen conflicts of interest but also strengthens the AI ecosystem.

At 20 times annualized sales, Anthropic isn't cheap, but it's more reasonable than the $2 trillion figure floated earlier. If the company maintains its hyper-growth trajectory, today's multiple could look much lower in hindsight. However, growth like this rarely lasts, and the return to operating losses is a reminder that profitability isn't guaranteed.

For Alphabet and Amazon, which already own stakes in Anthropic, the IPO will provide a public market price for their holdings, potentially unlocking value. The IPO could also boost demand for AI infrastructure, benefiting chipmakers like Nvidia and TSMC.

Overall, a successful IPO could reignite enthusiasm for AI stocks, while a weak debut might dampen sentiment further. Investors should watch the final pricing and first-day trading closely.