SpaceX Stock Crashes: Buy the Dip or Wait?
💡 Key Takeaway
SpaceX's post-IPO slump mirrors historical patterns, and with valuation still high and lockups looming, patience may be wiser than buying now.
What Happened: SpaceX's IPO Hype Fades
SpaceX (SPCX) went public at $135 per share on June 12, and within days, the stock soared to a record high of $211.39 on June 16. However, the euphoria was short-lived. The stock has since slumped back to around $140, erasing most of its early gains.
The initial surge was driven by a low float—less than 5% of shares were offered—and intense market hype. At its peak, SpaceX's market cap reached $2.64 trillion, which was 141 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. Even though revenue grew 33% in 2025, the valuation was unsustainable.
As the IPO buzz faded, investors began to focus on the company's steep losses and aggressive spending plans. The hasty acquisition of xAI, which houses AI assets like Grok and X, right before the IPO raised red flags. Before the acquisition, SpaceX was profitable thanks to Starlink, but now the losses from AI and space divisions are wiping out those profits.
Elon Musk has ambitious targets, claiming SpaceX could generate over $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. Analysts are more conservative, projecting $155 billion by 2028, which would still be a remarkable 103% CAGR from 2025. But hitting $1 trillion would require massive new catalysts.
Currently, SpaceX trades at 39 times this year's sales, which is still high but down from the peak. However, upcoming lockup expirations and the historical pattern of hot IPOs suggest the stock could face further pressure.
Why It Matters: Valuation and Lockup Risks
SpaceX's valuation remains a key concern. At 39 times sales, it's still expensive compared to established aerospace and tech companies. The company's losses are expected to intensify as it ramps up AI investments, which could weigh on the stock.
The upcoming lockup expirations are another critical factor. When insiders and early investors are allowed to sell their shares, it often leads to increased supply and downward pressure on the stock. This has happened with many hot IPOs, including Meta, Alibaba, and Snowflake.
Historically, stocks that surge on IPO hype tend to underperform in the months following their debut. SpaceX's current slump is consistent with this pattern. The question is whether it will find a bottom or continue to decline.
For investors, the key is to watch for signs of stabilization, such as the stock holding above its IPO price or the company showing progress toward profitability. Until then, the risk of further downside remains.
If you're considering buying SpaceX, it's important to weigh the potential long-term growth against the near-term risks. The company has a strong business in Starlink and space launches, but the AI venture is a wild card.
Source: The Motley Fool
Analysis generated by Bobby AI quantitative model, reviewed and edited by our research team. This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Bobby Insight
Avoid buying SpaceX now; wait for the lockup expiry and a clearer valuation reset.
The stock is still expensive at 39x sales, and history shows that hot IPOs often continue to slide. Lockup expirations will add selling pressure. Patience is key.
What This Means for Me
