AutoNation
AN
$205.97
+3.77%
AutoNation is the second-largest automotive dealer in the United States, operating over 240 dealerships, 52 collision centers, and 25 AutoNation USA used-vehicle stores across 20 states, primarily in Sunbelt metropolitan areas. The company generates nearly half its revenue from new-vehicle sales, with additional contributions from used vehicles, parts, service, and auto financing. As a dominant player in the fragmented auto retail industry, AutoNation benefits from scale and geographic diversification. The current investor narrative centers on margin resilience amid a cyclical downturn in new-vehicle sales, with attention on the company's ability to sustain profitability through its parts and service segment and its capital allocation strategy, including share buybacks.…
AN
AutoNation
$205.97
Related headlines
AN 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on AutoNation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $242.46 and implied upside of +17.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$242.46
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+17.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$202 - $300
Analyst target range
AutoNation is covered by 12 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.86 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $242.25, implying 19.0% upside from the current price of $203.54. The distribution shows a bullish tilt, with firms like Barclays (Overweight), Citigroup (Buy), and Morgan Stanley (Overweight) maintaining positive ratings. The target range spans from a low of $202.00 to a high of $300.00. The high target of $300 assumes significant margin expansion or multiple re-rating, potentially driven by a recovery in new-vehicle sales or higher-margin service growth. The low target of $202.00 is near the current price, suggesting downside risk from continued revenue contraction or margin compression. The spread between low and high ($98) is wide, indicating high uncertainty about the company's future performance. Recent ratings have been stable, with no downgrades in the past six months, reinforcing the positive consensus.
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AN Technical Analysis
AutoNation's stock is in a range-bound consolidation phase, trading 11.1% below its 52-week high of $228.92 and 15.3% above its 52-week low of $176.62. The 1-year price change of -0.87% reflects a sideways trend, underperforming the S&P 500's 20.92% gain over the same period. The current price of $203.54 sits at 88.9% of the 52-week range, suggesting the stock is closer to the upper end but not yet challenging resistance. Short-term momentum shows a divergence: the 1-month change of +5.25% indicates a recent bounce, while the 3-month change of +2.65% is more subdued. This contrasts with the 6-month decline of -5.29%, suggesting the stock may be attempting to reverse its medium-term downtrend. The relative strength index (not provided) would be useful, but the price action near the 50-day moving average (not given) could confirm a shift. The 52-week high of $228.92 acts as key resistance; a breakout above this level would signal a resumption of the longer-term uptrend. Support lies near the 52-week low of $176.62, and a breakdown below that could indicate further downside. With a beta of 0.745, AutoNation is less volatile than the market, meaning it tends to move less than the S&P 500, which may appeal to risk-averse investors but also limits upside in strong markets.
Beta
0.74
0.74x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-21.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$177-$229
Price range past year
Annual Return
+2.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +9.4% | +0.4% |
| 3m | +1.5% | +5.5% |
| 6m | -3.9% | +8.4% |
| 1y | +2.0% | +18.9% |
| ytd | -0.2% | +9.6% |
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AN Fundamental Analysis
AutoNation's revenue trajectory shows a mild contraction, with Q1 2026 revenue of $6.552 billion down 2.07% year-over-year from $6.690 billion in Q1 2025. The multi-quarter trend reveals deceleration: revenue peaked at $7.213 billion in Q4 2024 and has since declined sequentially. New-vehicle sales, the largest segment at $3.011 billion in Q1 2026, are under pressure from rising interest rates and inventory normalization, while the parts and service segment ($1.221 billion) provides a more stable, higher-margin revenue stream. The company remains profitable, with Q1 2026 net income of $205.4 million and a net margin of 3.13%, down from 2.62% in Q1 2025 but up from 1.24% in Q2 2025. Gross margin improved to 17.52% in Q1 2026 from 18.23% a year earlier, indicating some pricing power. Operating margin of 4.81% is healthy for the auto retail industry, though it has compressed from 5.02% in Q1 2025. AutoNation's balance sheet shows elevated leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.35 and a current ratio of 0.84, indicating reliance on debt financing. Free cash flow was negative $34.2 million in Q1 2026, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow is -$104 million, driven by working capital outflows and capital expenditures. Return on equity (ROE) of 27.7% is strong, but the high debt levels amplify financial risk.
Quarterly Revenue
$6.6B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-2.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
17.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-104000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is AN Overvalued?
Since AutoNation has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 11.96x, while the forward P/E is 8.37x, implying the market expects earnings to grow. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests an anticipated earnings recovery, as the forward multiple is 30% lower. Compared to the industry average (not provided), AutoNation's P/E of 11.96x appears reasonable for an auto dealer, though it may trade at a discount to the broader market. The P/S ratio of 0.28x is low, reflecting the company's thin margins typical of auto retail. Historically, AutoNation's trailing P/E has ranged from 4.01x (Q3 2022) to 21.69x (Q2 2025). The current 11.96x is near the middle of this range, suggesting the stock is neither overvalued nor undervalued relative to its own history. The PEG ratio of 12.03x indicates that the market expects modest earnings growth, as the P/E is high relative to the growth rate.
PE
12.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~13x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
