Instacart
CART
$48.28
-0.23%
Maplebear, operating as Instacart, is a grocery-focused delivery marketplace that connects consumers with local grocers and couriers through its on-demand app, operating in the software-services industry. As the dominant player in North American online grocery delivery with approximately 600,000 shoppers and 1,800 retail partners, Instacart leverages its platform to gather valuable consumer data and attract CPG advertisers. The current investor narrative centers on the company's accelerating revenue growth, expanding advertising business, and improving profitability, driven by its recent acquisition of Instaleap and strong Q4 2025 earnings that beat revenue expectations.…
CART
Instacart
$48.28
Related headlines
CART 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Instacart's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $62.76 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$62.76
15 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
15
covering this stock
Price Range
$39 - $63
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. Recent ratings include multiple Buy ratings from Jefferies (upgraded from Hold), Benchmark, Needham, Stifel, and Cantor Fitzgerald, while Wells Fargo maintains Equal Weight. The average EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $4.70, with a range of $4.46 to $4.86, and average revenue estimate of $5.63 billion. The implied upside from the current price of $48.39 to the average target (not explicitly provided) can be estimated using the forward P/E of 10.2x and EPS of $4.70, suggesting a target of ~$48, near the current price, indicating limited upside.
The target range from analyst estimates implies a low of $45.50 (using low EPS and low P/E) and a high of $49.60 (using high EPS and high P/E), a relatively narrow spread of about 9%, suggesting strong conviction. The high target assumes continued revenue growth and margin expansion, while the low target factors in potential competitive pressures from DoorDash and Amazon. Recent upgrades from Jefferies and consistent Buy ratings from multiple firms indicate positive sentiment, though the stock's price already reflects much of the optimism.
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CART Technical Analysis
The stock is in a strong uptrend, with a 1-year price change of -8.26% but a significant recovery from its 52-week low of $32.73 to the current price of $48.39, now trading at 90.4% of its 52-week range. This positioning near the high end suggests bullish momentum, though the negative 1-year return indicates the stock is still recovering from earlier losses. The current price is 48.4% above the 52-week low and 9.6% below the 52-week high of $53.50, reflecting a recovery that has yet to fully retrace prior highs.
Short-term momentum is strongly positive, with 1-month and 3-month price changes of +17.42% and +23.29%, respectively, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 1-month gain of 4.07%. This acceleration in momentum diverges from the negative 1-year trend, suggesting a potential trend reversal or mean reversion rather than a temporary pullback. The relative strength over 1-month is +13.35% versus the S&P 500, confirming strong near-term outperformance.
Key support lies near the 52-week low of $32.73, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $53.50. A breakout above $53.50 would signal a new uptrend and could target higher levels, while a breakdown below $32.73 would indicate renewed weakness. With a beta of 0.751, the stock is less volatile than the market, meaning it tends to move less than the S&P 500, which may appeal to risk-averse investors but also implies less upside in strong market rallies.
Beta
0.75
0.75x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-36.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$33-$54
Price range past year
Annual Return
+0.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CART Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +17.1% | +1.0% |
| 3m | +22.1% | +7.9% |
| 6m | +18.2% | +8.5% |
| 1y | +0.6% | +20.1% |
| ytd | +10.0% | +9.9% |
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CART Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing steadily, with Q4 2025 revenue of $992 million, up 12.3% year-over-year from $883 million in Q4 2024. The multi-quarter trend shows acceleration from 7.4% YoY growth in Q2 2025 to 12.3% in Q4 2025, driven by the Transaction segment ($698 million) and Advertising & Other ($294 million). The advertising business is a key growth driver, contributing 29.6% of total revenue and benefiting from the platform's valuable consumer data.
The company is profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $81 million and a net margin of 8.2%, though this is down from 16.8% in Q4 2024. Gross margin remains strong at 71.9% in Q4 2025, slightly below the 75.2% in Q4 2024, but still high for the industry. Operating margin improved to 14.0% in Q4 2025 from 17.6% in Q4 2024, indicating some margin compression due to higher operating expenses, but the company remains solidly profitable.
Balance sheet is strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.014, indicating minimal leverage, and a current ratio of 2.40, providing ample liquidity. Free cash flow was $172 million in Q4 2025, and trailing twelve-month FCF reached $911 million, giving a FCF yield of approximately 7.8% based on the current market cap. ROE is 17.8%, reflecting efficient use of equity, though the company has been aggressively repurchasing shares, with $1.114 billion in buybacks in Q4 2025 alone.
Quarterly Revenue
$992000000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+12.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
71.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$911000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CART Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, we lead with the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 26.3x, while the forward P/E is 10.2x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. The large gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that analysts anticipate a sharp increase in EPS, likely driven by margin expansion and share buybacks.
Compared to the industry average (not provided), the stock's P/S ratio of 3.14x is below the sector median for software-services companies, which often trade at higher multiples. However, the EV/Sales of 2.82x and EV/EBITDA of 17.0x suggest a moderate valuation relative to growth. The PEG ratio of 22.2x indicates the stock is priced for high growth, but the forward P/E of 10.2x appears cheap if earnings materialize.
Historically, the trailing P/E of 26.3x is near the lower end of its range over the past two years, where it has traded between 5x and 35x. The current P/E is below the 35.5x seen in Q4 2025, suggesting the stock is relatively cheaper now. However, the P/B ratio of 4.67x is above the historical average, indicating the market is pricing in strong future returns on equity.
PE
26.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -14x~291x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
