Carnival Corporation
CCL
$26.61
-0.82%
Carnival Corporation is the world's largest cruise company, operating nearly 100 ships across a portfolio of brands including Carnival Cruise Lines, Princess Cruises, and Holland America. As the dominant player in the leisure industry, Carnival commands a significant market share and benefits from strong brand recognition and scale. The current investor narrative centers on the company's record quarterly performance in early 2026, tempered by cautious guidance amid geopolitical and fuel cost pressures, while the stock has pulled back from its 52-week high, creating debate about whether the sell-off presents a value opportunity or signals fundamental headwinds.…
CCL
Carnival Corporation
$26.61
Related headlines
CCL 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Carnival Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $34.59 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$34.59
10 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
10
covering this stock
Price Range
$21 - $35
Analyst target range
Carnival is covered by 10 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The average EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $3.80, with a range of $3.74 to $3.88, while revenue estimates average $32.09 billion. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly provided, but the institutional ratings show a majority of 'Buy' or 'Overweight' ratings from firms like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Stifel, with only Truist Securities at 'Hold'. The average target price is not directly given, but using the forward P/E of 10.19x and estimated EPS of $3.80 implies a target of ~$38.70, suggesting approximately 44% upside from the current price of $26.83. The high target (using high EPS of $3.875 and forward P/E of 10.19x) would be ~$39.50, while the low target (low EPS $3.74) would be ~$38.10. The tight range of EPS estimates ($3.74–$3.88) indicates strong analyst conviction on earnings. Recent upgrades include Morgan Stanley moving from Equal Weight to Overweight in March 2026, signaling positive sentiment. The wide spread between current price and implied target suggests the market is pricing in more risk than analysts, possibly due to fuel cost and geopolitical uncertainties.
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CCL Technical Analysis
Carnival's stock is in a downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -7.8%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +20.6% gain. The current price of $26.83 sits at 39.4% of its 52-week range ($23.45–$34.03), near the lower end, suggesting the stock is closer to value territory but also reflecting persistent selling pressure. The 52-week low of $23.45 provides a key support level, while the high of $34.03 represents resistance. Over the past month, Carnival has gained 3.2%, outperforming the S&P 500's 4.1% gain on a relative basis (relative strength -0.8), indicating a potential short-term bounce. However, the 3-month change of -4.1% and 6-month change of -16.5% show that the longer-term trend remains bearish, with the stock failing to sustain rallies. The divergence between the positive 1-month momentum and negative 1-year trend could signal a temporary mean-reversion bounce within a broader downtrend. The 52-week low of $23.45 is a critical support; a break below would likely accelerate selling, while a move above the 52-week high of $34.03 would signal a trend reversal. Carnival's beta of 2.32 indicates it is 132% more volatile than the market, meaning larger price swings and higher risk for position sizing.
Beta
2.32
2.32x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-29.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$23-$34
Price range past year
Annual Return
-7.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CCL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -8.8% | +1.0% |
| 3m | -7.2% | +7.9% |
| 6m | -11.8% | +8.5% |
| 1y | -7.2% | +20.1% |
| ytd | -13.9% | +9.9% |
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CCL Fundamental Analysis
Carnival's revenue trajectory shows solid growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $6.165 billion, up 6.1% year-over-year, though decelerating from the 28.9% growth in Q3 2025. The company's revenue is driven by its Cruise segment ($2.142 billion) and Tour & Other ($4.023 billion), with the latter benefiting from Alaska tours. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue peaking in Q3 2025 at $8.153 billion, then declining seasonally, but the YoY growth rate has moderated from 28.9% to 6.1%, indicating a normalization post-pandemic. The company is profitable, with Q1 2026 net income of $258 million and EPS of $0.19, compared to a loss of $78 million in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin improved to 36.1% from 35.2% a year earlier, while operating margin expanded to 9.8% from 9.3%, reflecting cost controls and operating leverage. However, net margin remains thin at 4.2%, typical for the capital-intensive cruise industry. Carnival's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.28, indicating significant leverage, but free cash flow generation is strong at $697 million in Q1 2026, up from $318 million a year ago. The current ratio of 0.32 is low, suggesting liquidity risk, but the company's ability to generate operating cash flow ($1.263 billion) and positive FCF provides a cushion. ROE of 22.5% is robust, reflecting efficient use of equity despite high debt.
Quarterly Revenue
$6.2B
2026-02
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
36.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$3.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CCL Overvalued?
Since Carnival has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 12.35x, while the forward P/E is 10.19x, implying the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests an anticipated 21% earnings increase, which aligns with analyst estimates. Compared to the leisure industry average (not provided), Carnival's P/E of 12.35x appears reasonable given its growth trajectory, but without industry data, we note the stock trades at a discount to its own historical peaks. Historically, Carnival's P/E has ranged from negative (during losses) to over 40x in Q1 2026. The current trailing P/E of 12.35x is near the lower end of its historical range over the past two years, where it has been as low as 3.0x in Q3 2024 and as high as 42.2x in Q1 2026. This suggests the stock is trading at a discount to its recent valuation, potentially reflecting market concerns about fuel costs and guidance. The PEG ratio of 0.31 indicates the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate, supporting the value thesis.
PE
12.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -100x~52x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
