Church & Dwight
CHD
$98.07
-1.06%
Church & Dwight is a leading global producer of baking soda and a diversified household and personal products company, with brands including Arm & Hammer, OxiClean, Batiste, and TheraBreath. It holds a strong market position as a value-oriented consumer staples player, with its top brands accounting for roughly 70% of sales and profits, and derives about 80% of revenue from the U.S. market. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain growth through brand innovation and strategic acquisitions, such as the recent addition of Touchland hand sanitizer, while navigating a challenging consumer environment with modest revenue growth and margin pressures.…
CHD
Church & Dwight
$98.07
CHD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Church & Dwight's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $103.47 and implied upside of +5.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$103.47
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+5.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$77 - $115
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 19 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 2.24 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $102.95, implying approximately 5.0% upside from the current price of $98.07. The distribution shows a bullish tilt, with recent ratings from Wells Fargo (Overweight), RBC Capital (Outperform), and Evercore ISI (In Line), while JP Morgan and UBS maintain Neutral, and Barclays is Underweight. The target range spans from a low of $77.00 to a high of $115.00, representing a wide spread of $38, indicating significant uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target of $115 assumes successful margin expansion and market share gains, while the low target of $77 prices in potential competitive pressures or a recessionary impact on consumer spending. Recent analyst actions have been largely reaffirmations, with no major upgrades or downgrades in the past three months, suggesting a stable but cautious outlook.
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Bulls vs Bears: CHD Investment Factors
Church & Dwight presents a mixed picture: strong profitability, cash flow, and a defensive profile are offset by flat revenue growth and a premium valuation. The bull case rests on margin expansion, successful acquisitions (e.g., Touchland), and brand strength sustaining earnings growth. The bear case centers on stagnant top-line growth, potential multiple compression, and underperformance relative to the broader market. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull case given the company's consistent earnings and low beta, but the key tension is whether revenue growth can reaccelerate—if it remains flat, the premium P/E may contract, eroding returns.
Bullish
- Strong Brand Portfolio and Pricing Power: Top brands like Arm & Hammer, OxiClean, and Batiste account for ~70% of sales, providing pricing power and resilience. Gross margin improved to 46.4% in Q1 2026 from 45.8% in Q4 2025, indicating effective cost management.
- Consistent Profitability and Cash Flow: Net margin of 14.7% in Q1 2026 and TTM free cash flow of $1.067B demonstrate strong earnings quality. ROE of 18.4% is well above the industry average, reflecting efficient capital use.
- Defensive Characteristics with Low Beta: Beta of 0.467 makes CHD significantly less volatile than the market, appealing during economic uncertainty. The stock has a 52-week range of $81.33–$106.04, providing a clear support level.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with Upside: 19 analysts rate it a Buy with an average target of $102.95, implying ~5% upside from $98.07. The high target of $115 suggests potential for ~17% gain if margin expansion and market share gains materialize.
Bearish
- Flat Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.469B was essentially flat YoY (0.15% growth), following a trend of low single-digit growth. This raises concerns about market maturity and ability to drive organic expansion.
- Premium Valuation vs. Peers: Trailing P/E of 27.6x is a 25% premium to the industry average of ~22x. While justified by strong ROE, flat revenue growth makes the premium vulnerable to compression.
- Underperformance vs. S&P 500: 1-year price change of +7.18% significantly lagged the S&P 500's +18.35%, with a relative strength of -17.28%. This persistent underperformance may continue if growth remains tepid.
- Wide Analyst Target Range: Analyst targets range from $77 to $115, a $38 spread indicating high uncertainty. The low target implies ~21% downside from current levels, reflecting risks from competitive pressures or recession.
CHD Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +7.18%, though it has underperformed the S&P 500's 18.35% gain. The current price of $98.07 sits at 82.5% of its 52-week range ($81.33–$106.04), indicating it is closer to the highs but not overextended, suggesting moderate bullish momentum without extreme overvaluation. The 52-week low of $81.33 and high of $106.04 define the range, and the stock's beta of 0.467 implies it is significantly less volatile than the market, making it a defensive holding. Short-term momentum shows a 1-month change of +0.68% and a 3-month change of +1.23%, both positive but decelerating compared to the 6-month change of +8.23%, signaling a potential loss of near-term upside momentum. The 1-month relative strength vs. SPY is 0.37%, indicating slight outperformance, but the 1-year relative strength is -17.28%, confirming persistent underperformance. The stock is currently trading near the middle of its recent range, with support at the 52-week low of $81.33 and resistance at the 52-week high of $106.04. A breakout above $106.04 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $81.33 could indicate a bearish reversal. With a beta of 0.467, the stock is 53% less volatile than the S&P 500, appealing for risk-averse investors.
Beta
0.47
0.47x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-17.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$81-$106
Price range past year
Annual Return
+1.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CHD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.7% | -0.5% |
| 3m | +1.2% | +4.9% |
| 6m | +8.2% | +9.7% |
| 1y | +1.1% | +18.4% |
| ytd | +18.7% | +9.0% |
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CHD Fundamental Analysis
Revenue in the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) was $1.469 billion, essentially flat year-over-year with a growth rate of 0.15%, following a pattern of low single-digit growth over the past year. The prior four quarters showed revenues of $1.644B (Q4 2025), $1.586B (Q3 2025), $1.506B (Q2 2025), and $1.467B (Q1 2025), indicating a slight deceleration from the 2.7% YoY growth in Q2 2025. The Specialty Products Division contributed $77.7 million in revenue, but no segment breakdown is available for the core consumer business. The flat growth suggests the company is facing mature market headwinds, making cost control and acquisitions critical for future expansion. Net income in Q1 2026 was $216.3 million, with a net margin of 14.7%, up from 8.7% in Q4 2025 but down from 15.0% in Q1 2025. Gross margin improved to 46.4% from 45.8% in Q4 2025, while operating margin was 19.8%, reflecting stable profitability. The company has been consistently profitable, with EPS of $0.91 in Q1 2026 versus $0.89 a year ago, indicating modest earnings growth. The balance sheet is healthy: debt-to-equity is 0.55, and the current ratio is 1.07, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) is $1.067 billion, providing ample coverage for dividends and capital expenditures. ROE is 18.4%, reflecting efficient capital use, and the company generates strong operating cash flow ($174.8M in Q1 2026). The FCF yield is approximately 5.2% based on market cap, supporting a sustainable dividend.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.5B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
46.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CHD Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 27.58x, while the forward P/E is 24.23x, implying the market expects earnings growth of about 14% over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests moderate growth expectations. Compared to the household & personal products industry average P/E of approximately 22x (based on sector data), Church & Dwight trades at a 25% premium, reflecting its strong brand portfolio and consistent profitability. The premium is partially justified by its superior ROE of 18.4% versus industry averages, but the flat revenue growth raises questions about sustainability. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from 22x to 39x over the past five years. The current 27.6x is near the midpoint of that range, suggesting it is neither overvalued nor undervalued relative to its own history. The PEG ratio of 1.01 indicates the stock is fairly priced relative to its earnings growth rate, though growth is modest.
PE
27.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 22x~39x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Church & Dwight's primary financial risk is its reliance on modest revenue growth to justify its premium valuation. With Q1 2026 revenue growth of just 0.15% YoY, any further deceleration could pressure the stock. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55 is manageable, but interest expense of $24M per quarter consumes a portion of operating income. The net margin of 14.7% is healthy but could be squeezed if input costs rise or pricing power wanes. Free cash flow of $1.067B provides a cushion, but the payout ratio of 39% leaves limited room for dividend increases if growth stalls.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 0.467 suggests low market correlation, but its premium P/E of 27.6x (vs. industry 22x) makes it vulnerable to valuation compression if investor sentiment shifts toward value or if growth disappoints. Competitive pressures from private labels and larger players like Procter & Gamble could erode market share. The stock's 1-year relative strength of -17.28% vs. the S&P 500 indicates persistent underperformance, which may continue if the company fails to reignite growth. Regulatory risks are moderate given the consumer staples nature, but any adverse changes in trade policy could impact input costs.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a recessionary environment, consumer spending on premium brands could decline, leading to revenue contraction and margin pressure. If earnings disappoint and the P/E multiple contracts to the low end of its historical range (~22x), the stock could fall to the analyst low target of $77. From the current price of $98.07, this represents a potential loss of approximately 21.5%. The 52-week low of $81.33 provides a nearer-term downside of about 17%, but a severe downturn could push the stock below that level.
