Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.
COKE
$180.74
-0.94%
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. is the largest independent Coca-Cola bottler in the United States, responsible for distributing, marketing, and manufacturing a wide range of nonalcoholic beverages, including sparkling drinks like Coca-Cola and still beverages such as bottled water, teas, coffees, and sports drinks. As a key player in the non-alcoholic beverage industry, the company holds a unique position as a publicly traded bottler with exclusive territorial rights, giving it a competitive moat in its operating regions. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust revenue growth driven by price increases and volume gains, coupled with expanding margins and strong free cash flow generation, which have fueled a significant stock price appreciation of over 61% in the past year. Recent attention also focuses on the company's ability to navigate inflationary pressures and maintain profitability in a challenging consumer environment.…
COKE
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.
$180.74
COKE 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Insufficient analyst coverage available. Only one analyst covers the stock, and no consensus recommendation or target price is provided. This limited coverage implies that COKE is a small-cap or mid-cap stock with less institutional interest, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. Investors should rely more on fundamental analysis and technical levels rather than analyst sentiment. The lack of a target range means there is no clear upside or downside consensus, and the stock may be more susceptible to company-specific news and broader market moves.
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Bulls vs Bears: COKE Investment Factors
COKE presents a mixed picture: strong revenue growth (16.88% YoY), expanding margins (operating margin 12.86%), and robust free cash flow ($662.1M TTM) support the bull case, while the negative equity (-4.06 D/E), recent price weakness (-4.54% 1-month), and limited analyst coverage are key concerns. The bull case currently has stronger evidence due to the accelerating revenue and margin expansion, but the negative equity from buybacks is a significant financial risk. The most important tension is whether the forward P/E of 4.55x reflects genuine earnings growth potential or is a misleading artifact of one-time items; resolution of this will determine the stock's trajectory.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Revenue grew 16.88% YoY in Q1 2026 to $1.847 billion, accelerating from 9.0% in Q4 2025, driven by price increases and volume gains in the Nonalcoholic Beverage segment.
- Expanding Operating Margins: Operating margin improved to 12.86% in Q1 2026 from 12.01% a year ago, reflecting operating leverage and cost control, with TTM operating margin at 13.15%.
- Robust Free Cash Flow: TTM free cash flow stands at $662.1 million, providing ample liquidity for debt reduction, share buybacks, and dividends, with a payout ratio of only 15.2%.
- Low Valuation on Forward P/E: Forward P/E of 4.55x is a deep discount to the trailing P/E of 19.78x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth, potentially due to one-time items or margin expansion.
Bearish
- Negative Equity from Buybacks: Debt-to-equity of -4.06 and negative ROE of -77.1% result from aggressive share repurchases, which increase financial risk and could limit future borrowing capacity.
- Recent Price Pullback: The stock has declined 4.54% in the past month and 4.92% in the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500, indicating near-term selling pressure or profit-taking.
- Limited Analyst Coverage: Only one analyst covers the stock with no consensus recommendation or target price, leading to less efficient price discovery and potential for sharp moves on news.
- High Trailing P/E vs. History: Trailing P/E of 19.78x is near the upper end of its five-year range (8x-28x), suggesting limited upside if earnings growth disappoints or multiples contract.
COKE Technical Analysis
COKE is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +61.58%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 20.92%. The current price of $177.01 sits at 56.5% of its 52-week range ($110.00 to $219.65), indicating the stock is in the middle of its range after a pullback from the highs. This positioning suggests the stock is not overextended but has room to move higher if momentum resumes, though it is below the midpoint of the range, reflecting recent weakness. Short-term momentum is negative, with a 1-month price change of -4.54% and a 3-month change of -4.92%, contrasting sharply with the strong 1-year trend. This divergence signals a corrective phase or profit-taking after the prior rally, as the stock has pulled back from its 52-week high of $219.65. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 is also negative over 1-month (-5.14%) and 3-month (-11.21%), confirming underperformance in the near term. The 52-week low of $110.00 provides strong support, while the 52-week high of $219.65 is the key resistance level. A breakout above $219.65 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $110.00 would be a bearish reversal. The stock's beta of 0.534 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the market, meaning it tends to move less than the S&P 500, which may appeal to risk-averse investors but also implies lower upside in strong market rallies.
Beta
0.53
0.53x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-24.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$110-$220
Price range past year
Annual Return
+59.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | COKE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.6% | -0.5% |
| 3m | -5.0% | +4.9% |
| 6m | +19.3% | +9.7% |
| 1y | +59.3% | +18.4% |
| ytd | +20.6% | +9.0% |
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COKE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been growing steadily, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting $1.847 billion, up 16.88% year-over-year from $1.580 billion in Q1 2025. This marks an acceleration from the prior quarter's 9.0% growth (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024), driven by the Nonalcoholic Beverage segment which contributed $1.834 billion in revenue. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent growth, with Q2 2025 revenue of $1.856 billion (+3.3% YoY) and Q3 2025 of $1.888 billion (+6.9% YoY), indicating a broad-based recovery. The company is highly profitable, with net income of $111.6 million in Q1 2026, up from $103.6 million in Q1 2025, representing a net margin of 6.04%. Gross margin has remained stable around 39.4% in Q1 2026, compared to 39.7% in Q1 2025, while operating margin improved to 12.86% from 12.01% a year ago, reflecting operating leverage. The company's profitability is solid, with trailing twelve-month net income of $578.5 million and a net margin of 7.89%, which is healthy for the beverage industry. The balance sheet shows a negative equity position (debt-to-equity of -4.06) due to share repurchases and debt, but the company generates strong free cash flow of $142.2 million in Q1 2026 and $662.1 million on a trailing twelve-month basis. The current ratio of 1.26 indicates adequate liquidity, and the company's ability to generate cash internally is evident from its operating cash flow of $205.3 million in Q1 2026. However, the negative ROE of -77.1% is a concern, driven by the negative equity, but this is largely a result of aggressive share buybacks rather than operational issues.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.8B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+16.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
39.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$662108000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is COKE Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 19.78x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 4.55x, implying the market expects substantial earnings growth in the coming year. This large gap suggests that analysts anticipate a sharp increase in earnings, possibly due to one-time items or a recovery in profitability. Compared to the industry average (Beverages - Non-Alcoholic), the trailing P/E of 19.78x is at a premium to the sector median of approximately 22x (based on available data), but the forward P/E of 4.55x is a deep discount, indicating the market is pricing in a dramatic earnings surge. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from around 8x to 28x over the past five years, with the current 19.78x near the middle of that range. The P/E was as low as 8.1x in Q3 2022 and as high as 28.7x in Q4 2023, so the current level is not extreme. The PEG ratio of 1.87 suggests the stock is fairly valued relative to its earnings growth rate, though this depends on the accuracy of growth estimates.
PE
19.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 8x~29x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: The company's negative equity (debt-to-equity of -4.06) and negative ROE (-77.1%) are red flags, stemming from aggressive share repurchases that have eroded equity. While free cash flow is strong ($662.1M TTM), the debt burden could become problematic if cash flow declines or interest rates rise. The current ratio of 1.26 is adequate but not robust, and the net margin of 7.89% is healthy but could compress if input costs rise. Revenue concentration in the Nonalcoholic Beverage segment (99% of revenue) adds operational risk if consumer preferences shift away from carbonated drinks.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's trailing P/E of 19.78x is above the five-year median, leaving it vulnerable to multiple compression if growth slows. With a beta of 0.534, it is less sensitive to macro swings, but the recent underperformance relative to the S&P 500 (-5.14% 1-month relative strength) suggests sector rotation away from defensive names. Competitive threats from private-label beverages and changing consumer tastes toward healthier options could pressure volumes. The lack of analyst coverage (only 1 analyst) means the stock may be mispriced or overlooked, increasing information asymmetry risk.
Worst-Case Scenario: A combination of slowing revenue growth (e.g., below 5%), margin compression from rising costs, and a market downturn could drive the stock to its 52-week low of $110.00, representing a 37.9% decline from the current price of $177.01. This scenario would likely involve a recession hitting consumer spending and a re-rating of the P/E to historical lows near 8x, implying a price around $110 based on TTM EPS of ~$9.00.
