ConocoPhillips
COP
$134.26
-1.08%
ConocoPhillips is a US-based independent exploration and production company with operations spanning Alaska, the Lower 48, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa, including substantial integrated LNG activities. As one of the world's largest independent E&P firms, it distinguishes itself through a diversified global asset base, a disciplined capital allocation framework, and a strong focus on shareholder returns. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to capitalize on elevated oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply management, while also executing on long-term growth projects like the Willow field in Alaska, which is expected to significantly boost free cash flow by 2029. Additionally, the stock's strong performance and positive analyst sentiment reflect optimism about its capacity to sustain production growth and return capital to shareholders.…
COP
ConocoPhillips
$134.26
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy COP Today?
Based on the analysis, COP is rated as a Buy. The stock offers a compelling risk-reward with a forward PE of 14.1x, which is attractive for an E&P company with a strong free cash flow yield. The analyst consensus is a Buy with an average target price of $145.33, implying an 8.2% upside. The company's disciplined capital allocation and the Willow project provide a clear path to growth, making it a solid addition to a diversified portfolio.
Sign up to view all
COP 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish on COP, driven by its attractive valuation, strong free cash flow, and positive analyst sentiment. The stock has shown robust momentum, but the recent revenue decline and dependence on oil prices introduce uncertainty. The medium confidence reflects the volatility in commodity markets. If oil prices remain stable or rise, COP is likely to outperform. However, a sharp decline in oil prices could quickly change the outlook. The AI would upgrade its stance to high confidence if oil prices stabilize above $75 and COP reports consistent earnings growth. Conversely, a downgrade would occur if oil prices fall below $65 or if the Willow project faces significant delays.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ConocoPhillips's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $145.33 and implied upside of +8.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$145.33
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+8.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$126 - $189
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $126.00 to a high of $189.00, indicating a wide dispersion of expectations. The low target suggests a potential downside of 6.15% from the current price, possibly pricing in a decline in oil prices or operational setbacks. The high target implies a significant upside of 40.77%, likely assuming sustained high oil prices, successful execution of growth projects like Willow, and multiple expansion. The wide range (63-point spread) highlights uncertainty in the commodity price outlook and the company's ability to deliver on its long-term plans. Recent ratings have been predominantly positive, with upgrades from Roth Capital (from Neutral to Buy) and reaffirmations of Overweight from Morgan Stanley and Barclays, indicating a constructive sentiment among analysts.
Drowning in data?
Find the real signal!
Bulls vs Bears: COP Investment Factors
ConocoPhillips presents a balanced risk-reward profile. The bull case is supported by a strong uptrend, reasonable valuation, and positive analyst sentiment, with the Willow project offering a clear long-term growth catalyst. However, the bear case highlights revenue volatility, dependence on oil prices, and geopolitical risks that could undermine performance. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the low PE, high free cash flow, and constructive analyst outlook. The most critical tension is the sustainability of oil prices: if they remain elevated, COP could outperform, but a sharp decline would likely lead to significant downside. Investors should monitor oil price trends and the progress of the Willow project as key determinants of the investment thesis.
Bullish
- Strong Uptrend with 40% 1-Year Gain: COP is trading at $134.26, up 40.19% over the past year, and sits near its 52-week high of $137.42. This momentum is supported by a 16.7% gain in the last month alone, indicating robust investor confidence and positive market sentiment.
- Attractive Valuation with Low PE: The trailing PE is 14.72x and forward PE is 14.12x, which is reasonable for an E&P company. This valuation is supported by a net margin of 13.6% and a strong free cash flow of $15.38 billion TTM, providing a solid earnings base.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with High Target: With 24 analysts, the consensus is a Buy (mean rating 1.64) and the average target price is $145.33, implying an 8.2% upside from the current price. The high target of $189 suggests a potential 40.8% upside, reflecting optimism about growth projects and oil prices.
- Willow Project to Boost FCF by 2029: The Willow field in Alaska is expected to generate an incremental $7 billion in annual free cash flow by 2029. This long-term growth catalyst could significantly enhance shareholder returns and support the stock's premium valuation.
Bearish
- Recent Revenue Decline in Q1 2026: Q1 2026 revenue was $16.054 billion, down 2.45% YoY from $16.458 billion. This decline, despite a sequential recovery from Q4 2025's $13.308 billion, indicates vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations and potential production disruptions.
- High Valuation Near 52-Week High: At $134.26, the stock is only 2.3% below its 52-week high of $137.42, leaving limited upside if oil prices stabilize. The stock's 1-month gain of 16.7% suggests it may be overextended in the short term, risking a pullback.
- Dependence on Oil Prices: COP's earnings are highly sensitive to crude oil prices. A decline in oil prices could significantly impact revenue and profitability, as seen in the Q4 2025 revenue drop to $13.308 billion when oil prices likely weakened.
- Geopolitical Risks in Key Regions: Operations in the Middle East and other volatile regions expose COP to geopolitical disruptions. Recent events like Iran firing on ships in the Strait of Hormuz highlight the risk of supply disruptions that could negatively impact operations or increase costs.
COP Technical Analysis
ConocoPhillips is in a strong uptrend, with the stock price at $134.26 as of September 4, 2026, representing a 40.19% gain over the past year. The current price is near the top of its 52-week range, sitting at 97.7% of the range between the low of $85.57 and the high of $137.42, indicating robust momentum and bullish sentiment. This positioning near the highs suggests the stock is being driven by positive fundamentals and market tailwinds, though it also implies potential overextension in the short term.
Beta
0.13
0.13x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$86-$137
Price range past year
Annual Return
+40.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | COP Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +16.7% | -0.4% |
| 3m | +14.6% | +4.2% |
| 6m | +14.7% | +13.7% |
| 1y | +40.2% | +19.0% |
| ytd | +38.8% | +12.9% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
COP Fundamental Analysis
ConocoPhillips' revenue trajectory shows a mixed picture: the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reported revenue of $16.054 billion, a 2.45% decline year-over-year from $16.458 billion in Q1 2025. However, this decline follows a period of volatility, with Q4 2025 revenue at $13.308 billion, Q3 2025 at $14.969 billion, and Q2 2025 at $13.979 billion, indicating sequential growth in the latest quarter. The revenue dip in Q1 2026 is likely due to lower commodity prices or production disruptions, but the company's diversified portfolio and cost management have helped maintain profitability. The multi-quarter trend shows a rebound from the Q4 2025 trough, suggesting a recovery in production or pricing, which is a positive signal for the investment case.
Quarterly Revenue
$16.1B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-2.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
46.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$15.4B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is COP Overvalued?
Given that ConocoPhillips is profitable with a trailing net income of $2.183 billion in Q1 2026, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE is 14.72x, while the forward PE is 14.12x, indicating that the market expects earnings to grow slightly, as the forward multiple is lower. This narrow gap suggests modest growth expectations, which is typical for a mature E&P company. The stock's valuation appears reasonable relative to its earnings power, especially considering the current commodity price environment.
PE
14.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 6x~20x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include moderate debt levels with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, which is manageable but could become burdensome if oil prices fall. The company's net margin of 13.6% and operating margin of 19.2% are solid, but revenue declined 2.45% YoY in Q1 2026, indicating sensitivity to commodity prices. Free cash flow is strong at $15.38 billion TTM, but the payout ratio of 50% suggests a commitment to dividends that could strain cash flows during downturns. Additionally, the negative PEG ratio (-0.79) implies expected earnings contraction, which could pressure the stock if realized.