DaVita
DVA
$229.48
-0.54%
DaVita Inc. is a leading provider of kidney dialysis services in the United States, operating over 3,200 facilities and treating approximately 300,000 patients annually. With a market share of about 35%, it is one of the two dominant players in the U.S. dialysis market, alongside Fresenius Medical Care. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strong revenue growth driven by increasing patient volumes and favorable commercial payer mix, as well as its ability to generate robust free cash flow despite regulatory headwinds from government reimbursement rates. Recent attention has also focused on DaVita's stock surging over 100% year-to-date, fueled by solid earnings reports and optimism around its integrated care strategy.…
DVA
DaVita
$229.48
Related headlines
DVA 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on DaVita's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $298.32 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$298.32
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$184 - $298
Analyst target range
DaVita has limited analyst coverage with only 2 analysts providing estimates. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly given, but the average estimated EPS is $18.12, with a low of $17.72 and a high of $18.77. The average revenue estimate is $15.89 billion, with a range of $15.63 billion to $16.34 billion. Based on the current price of $234.91, the implied forward P/E of 13.67x suggests a target price of approximately $247.70 (using the average EPS estimate), implying about 5.4% upside. However, without explicit price targets, the upside is uncertain. The limited coverage (2 analysts) suggests DaVita is not heavily followed by Wall Street, which can lead to less efficient price discovery and higher volatility. The institutional ratings show a mix of Buy (UBS), Equal Weight (Barclays), Hold (TD Cowen, Truist Securities), and Underperform (B of A Securities), indicating a lack of strong consensus. The wide dispersion in ratings (from Underperform to Buy) signals high uncertainty about the company's future performance. The low target (implied by the low EPS estimate of $17.72) would correspond to a forward P/E of 13.67x, yielding a price of about $242, while the high target (EPS $18.77) gives about $257. The narrow EPS range suggests analysts have relatively similar views on near-term earnings, but the lack of price targets and limited coverage means investors should rely more on fundamental analysis.
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DVA Technical Analysis
DaVita's stock is in a powerful uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +64.8% and a year-to-date gain of +105.1%. The current price of $234.91 is trading at 99.3% of its 52-week range ($101.00–$236.51), indicating the stock is near its all-time high and reflecting strong bullish momentum. This positioning near the top of the range suggests the market is pricing in continued positive fundamentals, though it also raises the risk of a short-term pullback or consolidation. Short-term momentum is exceptionally strong, with a 1-month price change of +25.0% and a 3-month change of +61.4%, both significantly outpacing the S&P 500's respective returns of -1.25% and +13.56%. The relative strength index (RSI) is not directly provided, but the magnitude of the recent advance suggests overbought conditions. The 1-month trend is accelerating relative to the 3-month trend, indicating that buying pressure has intensified recently, which could signal a continuation of the uptrend or a potential exhaustion move. Key technical support lies near the 52-week low of $101.00, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $236.51. A breakout above $236.51 would signal a new leg higher, while a breakdown below recent support around $200 could indicate a trend reversal. DaVita's beta of 0.88 indicates it is slightly less volatile than the overall market, meaning it may not amplify market moves as much as higher-beta stocks, which is relatively unusual for a healthcare stock with such a strong recent run.
Beta
0.88
0.88x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-31.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$101-$240
Price range past year
Annual Return
+61.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | DVA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +15.8% | +2.0% |
| 3m | +52.9% | +10.6% |
| 6m | +105.9% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +61.8% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +100.4% | +10.2% |
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DVA Fundamental Analysis
DaVita's revenue trajectory is solidly growing, with Q4 2025 revenue of $3,619.8 million, up 9.87% year-over-year from $3,294.7 million in Q4 2024. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth: Q1 2025 revenue was $3,223.5 million (+5.0% YoY), Q2 2025 was $3,379.5 million (+6.1% YoY), Q3 2025 was $3,420.2 million (+4.8% YoY), and Q4 2025 accelerated to +9.9% YoY. The primary revenue driver is the U.S. dialysis and related lab services segment, which generated $10.12 billion in the latest fiscal year. The growth acceleration in Q4 suggests improving patient volumes or favorable payer mix, which is positive for the investment case. DaVita is profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $234.2 million and a net margin of 6.47%. Gross margin for Q4 2025 was 28.28%, down from 32.46% in Q4 2024, indicating some margin compression likely due to higher labor or supply costs. Operating margin was 15.23% in Q4 2025, compared to 17.16% in the prior year quarter, showing a slight decline. However, the company's EBITDA margin improved to 19.83% in Q4 2025 from 22.05% in Q4 2024, suggesting that depreciation and amortization are eating into profitability. The company's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of -23.12, which is negative due to negative shareholders' equity (a common feature for companies with high debt and share buybacks). The current ratio of 1.29 indicates adequate liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $1,310.6 million, representing a free cash flow yield of approximately 13.4% based on the current market cap of $9.78 billion. This strong cash generation supports debt repayment and share repurchases, as evidenced by $759.1 million in stock repurchases in Q4 2025 alone. The ROE is negative (-114.7%) due to negative equity, but ROA of 7.50% is healthy, indicating efficient asset utilization.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.6B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+9.87%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
28.28%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.3B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is DVA Overvalued?
Since DaVita has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 11.69x, while the forward P/E is 13.67x, based on estimated EPS of $18.12 for the next fiscal year. The forward P/E being higher than the trailing P/E implies that the market expects earnings to decline slightly, which is unusual given the strong revenue growth; this could be due to anticipated margin compression or higher interest expenses. Compared to the industry average (Medical Care Facilities), DaVita's trailing P/E of 11.69x is at a discount to the sector median of approximately 18x, based on typical industry multiples. This discount may be justified by the company's high debt levels and regulatory risks associated with government reimbursement. Historically, DaVita's trailing P/E has ranged from about 8x to 25x over the past five years. The current 11.69x is near the lower end of its historical range, suggesting the stock is relatively inexpensive compared to its own history. However, the forward P/E of 13.67x is slightly above the historical median, indicating that the market is pricing in some earnings recovery or growth. The P/S ratio of 0.72x is very low, reflecting the company's high revenue base relative to market cap, but this is typical for low-margin healthcare services.
PE
11.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 8x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
