Floor & Decor
FND
$56.79
-2.86%
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. is a specialty retailer in the hard surface flooring market, offering tile, wood, laminate, and natural stone products along with installation accessories. As a leading player in the home improvement industry, it differentiates itself by targeting professional installers, commercial businesses, and DIY customers with an everyday low-price model. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate a challenging housing market, with recent news highlighting sensitivity to interest rate cuts following geopolitical developments, while revenue growth has decelerated and margins face pressure.…
FND
Floor & Decor
$56.79
FND 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Floor & Decor's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $54.64 and implied upside of -3.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$54.64
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-3.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$37 - $75
Analyst target range
Floor & Decor is covered by 22 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' (mean rating 2.61 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is strong buy). The average price target is $54.32, implying 4.4% downside from the current price of $56.79. The distribution shows 1 buy, 10 holds, and 11 sells (or equivalent), indicating a bearish tilt. The target range spans from a low of $37.00 to a high of $75.00. The high target of $75.00 assumes a recovery in housing demand and margin expansion, while the low target of $37.00 prices in continued revenue decline and margin compression. The wide spread ($38) reflects high uncertainty. Recent ratings from major firms (Evercore, Mizuho, Citigroup, Wells Fargo) are mostly neutral, with Guggenheim and Piper Sandler more bullish. No recent upgrades or downgrades are noted, suggesting analysts are waiting for clearer signs of a turnaround.
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Bulls vs Bears: FND Investment Factors
Floor & Decor presents a mixed picture: the stock has bounced from its 52-week low and trades at a forward P/E below its historical average, but revenue is stagnant, margins are compressing, and analyst consensus is a hold with a price target below the current price. The bull case hinges on a housing market recovery driven by Fed rate cuts, which could reignite demand for hard surface flooring. The bear case centers on continued revenue weakness and margin pressure, which could push the stock toward the low analyst target of $37.00. The single most important tension is whether the recent bounce is a sustainable reversal or a dead cat bounce within a longer downtrend. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger given the fundamental deterioration and bearish analyst sentiment.
Bullish
- Recent price bounce from 52-week low: The stock has rallied 33% from its 52-week low of $42.64 to the current $56.79, suggesting potential bottom-fishing and a shift in sentiment. This bounce, combined with a 13.4% one-month gain, indicates short-term momentum that could extend if housing data improves.
- Forward P/E below historical average: The forward P/E of 26.18x is below the 5-year average trailing P/E of ~40x, implying the stock is relatively cheap by its own history. If the company delivers the expected earnings growth, valuation could expand, offering upside.
- Positive free cash flow generation: FND generated $105.45 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, providing a cushion for debt service and potential reinvestment. Positive FCF reduces the risk of financial distress and supports a modest FCF yield of 1.55%.
- Analyst high target implies 32% upside: The highest analyst price target is $75.00, representing 32% upside from the current price. While the consensus is hold, the high target suggests that some analysts see significant recovery potential if housing demand rebounds.
Bearish
- Revenue stagnation and margin compression: Revenue in Q1 2026 was $1.152 billion, down 0.73% YoY, and net margin fell from 5.20% in Q2 2025 to 3.45% in Q1 2026. This combination of top-line stagnation and shrinking profitability signals deteriorating fundamentals.
- Consensus hold with downside to average target: The average analyst price target is $54.32, implying 4.4% downside from the current price. With 11 sell ratings and only 1 buy, the analyst community is predominantly bearish, reflecting skepticism about near-term recovery.
- High PEG ratio indicates overvaluation: The PEG ratio of 62.88x is extremely elevated, meaning the current P/E is not justified by expected earnings growth. This suggests the stock is overvalued relative to its growth prospects, making it vulnerable to multiple compression.
- Elevated debt-to-equity and beta: Debt-to-equity of 1.51 indicates moderate leverage, while a beta of 1.584 means the stock is 58% more volatile than the market. In a rising rate environment or economic downturn, this leverage amplifies downside risk.
FND Technical Analysis
Floor & Decor is in a sustained downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -29.04% and the current price of $56.79 representing 61.5% of its 52-week range ($42.64 low to $92.405 high). Trading near the lower end of the range suggests bearish sentiment and potential value opportunity, but also risk of further downside if fundamentals deteriorate. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 significantly, with relative strength of -47.39% over the past year. Short-term momentum shows a mixed picture: the 1-month price change is +13.40%, indicating a recent bounce, while the 3-month change is +5.03%, suggesting deceleration from the longer-term downtrend. This divergence could signal a temporary pullback within a larger downtrend or the beginning of a reversal, but the 6-month change of -25.35% confirms persistent weakness. The beta of 1.584 implies 58.4% more volatility than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves. The 52-week low of $42.64 provides key support, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $92.405. A breakout above $92.405 would signal a major trend reversal, while a breakdown below $42.64 could accelerate selling. The stock's high beta means it is likely to move more than the market in either direction, requiring careful risk management.
Beta
1.58
1.58x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-51.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$43-$92
Price range past year
Annual Return
-29.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FND Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +13.4% | -0.5% |
| 3m | +5.0% | +4.9% |
| 6m | -25.3% | +9.7% |
| 1y | -29.0% | +18.4% |
| ytd | -9.8% | +9.0% |
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FND Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been relatively flat to slightly declining, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting $1.152 billion, down 0.73% year-over-year. Over the past four quarters, revenue has ranged from $1.107 billion to $1.214 billion, showing stagnation. The company's revenue segments are dominated by Tile ($275M) and Installation Materials & Tools ($248M), with Wood ($83M) and Natural Stone ($50M) contributing less. The lack of growth is a concern, especially in a cyclical home improvement sector. Profitability remains positive but under pressure: net income in Q1 2026 was $39.7 million, with a net margin of 3.45%, down from 5.20% in Q2 2025. Gross margin has fluctuated, with the latest quarter at 44.04%, down from 43.87% in Q2 2025 but up from 38.45% in Q4 2025. Operating margin was 4.55% in Q1 2026, indicating tight profitability. The company is profitable but margins are compressing, which could be due to cost inflation or competitive pricing. Balance sheet health is mixed: debt-to-equity is 1.51, indicating moderate leverage, and the current ratio is 1.33, suggesting adequate liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) is $105.45 million, positive but declining from prior periods. ROE is 8.66%, reasonable but not exceptional. The company generates enough cash to fund operations but relies on debt for growth, as seen in capital expenditures of $63.4 million in Q1 2026. The FCF yield is approximately 1.55%, which is low, indicating the stock is not cheap on a cash flow basis.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
44.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$105450000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FND Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 32.75x, while the forward P/E is 26.18x, implying the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward suggests a 20% expected earnings increase, which is optimistic given recent revenue stagnation. Compared to the home improvement industry average P/E (not provided, but typically around 20-25x), Floor & Decor trades at a premium. Its P/S ratio of 1.45x is below the industry average of ~1.5x, but the P/E premium may be justified by its niche position and professional customer base. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from 20x to 69x over the past five years. The current 32.75x is near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is relatively cheap compared to its own history. However, the PEG ratio of 62.88x indicates that the current P/E is very high relative to expected earnings growth, implying the market may be overpaying for modest growth prospects.
PE
32.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 20x~69x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: FND's revenue has been flat to declining, with Q1 2026 revenue down 0.73% YoY, and net margin shrinking from 5.20% to 3.45% over the past year. The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.51, indicating moderate leverage, and interest expense of $3.18 million in Q1 2026 consumes a portion of operating income. Free cash flow of $105.45 million is positive but declining, and capital expenditures of $63.4 million in Q1 2026 suggest ongoing investment needs. If revenue continues to stagnate, fixed costs could further compress margins, leading to earnings disappointment.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 1.584 implies high sensitivity to market movements, and its 1-year relative strength of -47.39% versus the S&P 500 indicates persistent underperformance. Valuation risk is elevated: the trailing P/E of 32.75x is a premium to the home improvement industry average of ~20-25x, and the PEG ratio of 62.88x suggests the market is pricing in unrealistic growth. Recent news about an Iran ceasefire reviving Fed rate cut hopes could benefit FND as a rate-sensitive stock, but any delay in cuts would reverse this tailwind. Competitive pressure from larger home improvement retailers could also erode market share.
Worst-Case Scenario: If revenue continues to decline and margins compress further, the stock could fall to the analyst low target of $37.00, representing a 35% decline from the current price of $56.79. This scenario would be triggered by a prolonged housing downturn, higher interest rates, or a recession that reduces consumer spending on home improvement. The 52-week low of $42.64 is a key support level; a break below that could accelerate selling toward $37.00. In this adverse scenario, an investor could lose approximately 35% of their investment.
