Fox Corporation
FOXA
$57.62
+1.43%
Fox Corporation operates in the entertainment industry, primarily through its cable networks (Fox News, Fox Business, sports channels) and television segment (Fox broadcast network, local stations, and ad-supported streaming platform Tubi). As a focused media company following the sale of most entertainment assets to Disney in 2019, Fox distinguishes itself by its heavy reliance on live news and sports, with nearly all revenue tied to the pay-TV bundle. The current investor narrative centers on Fox's transformative $22 billion acquisition of Roku, announced in June 2026, which has sparked intense debate about the strategic merits, debt burden, and potential dilution, causing significant stock volatility. Additionally, the market is watching how Fox navigates cord-cutting headwinds and leverages its streaming assets.…
FOXA
Fox Corporation
$57.62
Related headlines
FOXA 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Fox Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $70.81 and implied upside of +22.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$70.81
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+22.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$53 - $112
Analyst target range
Fox is covered by 18 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' (mean rating 2.05 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is strong buy). The average target price is $70.81, implying approximately 22.9% upside from the current price of $57.62. The distribution shows a bullish lean, with the majority of analysts rating it a buy or outperform. Recent ratings actions include an upgrade from Seaport Global (Neutral to Buy) in February 2026 and an upgrade from Wolfe Research (Peer Perform to Outperform) in July 2026, indicating improving sentiment.
The target price range spans from a low of $52.60 to a high of $112.00, a spread of $59.40, reflecting high uncertainty. The high target of $112.00 assumes the Roku acquisition will be transformative, driving significant revenue synergies and multiple expansion. The low target of $52.60 suggests downside risk if the deal fails to deliver or if cord-cutting accelerates. The wide dispersion indicates a lack of consensus on the acquisition's outcome. The recent downgrades from Barclays and Wells Fargo (both maintaining Equal Weight) suggest caution, while the upgrades from Seaport and Wolfe signal optimism. Overall, the analyst community is cautiously optimistic but divided on the stock's prospects.
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Bulls vs Bears: FOXA Investment Factors
FOXA presents a classic value-versus-risk debate. On the bull side, the stock is deeply undervalued on P/E (10.39x) and EV/EBITDA (6.73x) relative to peers, generates strong free cash flow ($2.36B TTM), and has analyst support with a $70.81 average target. On the bear side, revenue is declining (-8.63% YoY), the Roku acquisition adds massive debt and execution risk, and the stock suffered a 24.9% weekly crash on deal news. The single most important tension is whether the Roku acquisition will create long-term value or destroy shareholder equity. If synergies materialize and debt is managed, the stock could re-rate significantly; if not, further downside toward the 52-week low of $48.34 is possible. Currently, the bear case has slightly stronger evidence given the immediate financial strain and market skepticism, but the deep valuation provides a margin of safety.
Bullish
- Deep Value on P/E and EV/EBITDA: FOXA trades at a trailing P/E of 10.39x and EV/EBITDA of 6.73x, representing a 53% discount to the Communication Services sector average P/E of ~22x. This low multiple suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism, leaving room for upside if the Roku acquisition delivers synergies.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: TTM free cash flow is $2.362 billion, yielding ~9.9% at the current market cap. This robust cash generation provides a cushion to service the debt from the $22 billion Roku acquisition and supports the current dividend yield of 1.16%.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with 22.9% Upside: The average analyst target price is $70.81, implying 22.9% upside from $57.62. With 18 analysts covering and a mean rating of 2.05 (Buy), the Street sees value despite near-term uncertainty.
- Recent Upgrades Signal Improving Sentiment: Seaport Global upgraded from Neutral to Buy in February 2026 and Wolfe Research upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform in July 2026. These upgrades suggest that some analysts believe the Roku acquisition risk is overstated.
Bearish
- Declining Revenue and Earnings Pressure: Q3 FY2026 revenue fell 8.63% YoY to $3.994B, driven by a 20.7% drop in the Television segment. Net income declined from $346M to $166M YoY, and net margin halved to 4.16%, reflecting deal-related costs and core business weakness.
- Massive Debt from Roku Acquisition: The $22 billion Roku acquisition will significantly increase FOXA's debt load. Current debt-to-equity is 0.62, but post-deal leverage could rise sharply, straining the balance sheet and potentially leading to credit rating downgrades.
- Stock Plunged 24.9% in One Week on Deal Fears: On June 19, 2026, FOXA stock sank 24.9% in a single week after the Roku acquisition announcement, reflecting investor panic over debt and dilution. The stock remains 24.6% below its 52-week high of $76.39.
- Cord-Cutting Headwinds Threaten Core Business: FOXA's revenue is heavily tied to the pay-TV bundle, which is in secular decline. The 20.7% drop in Television segment revenue in Q3 underscores the structural pressure, and the Roku acquisition may not fully offset these losses.
FOXA Technical Analysis
Fox's stock is in a clear downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +2.18% significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +18.35%. The current price of $57.62 sits at 75.5% of its 52-week range ($48.34 - $76.39), indicating it is closer to the low end, which often suggests a value opportunity but also reflects persistent selling pressure. The stock has recovered from its 52-week low of $48.34 set on June 23, 2026, but remains well below the high of $76.39 from January 2026.
Short-term momentum shows a sharp divergence: the 1-month change is +12.28%, while the 3-month change is -11.45%. This indicates a strong recent bounce from the June lows, but the intermediate trend remains negative. The 1-month relative strength vs. SPY is +11.97%, suggesting the stock is outperforming the market in the very near term, yet the 3-month relative strength is -16.12%, confirming the longer-term weakness. The stock's beta of 0.55 implies it is less volatile than the market, but the recent 24.9% weekly drop in June highlights event-driven risk.
Key support is at the 52-week low of $48.34, a break below which could signal further downside toward the $45 area. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $76.39; a breakout above that level would indicate a reversal of the downtrend. The stock's beta of 0.55 means it is 45% less volatile than the S&P 500, which may appeal to risk-averse investors but also limits upside participation in rallies. The wide gap between the 52-week high and low ($28.05) reflects high uncertainty, likely driven by the Roku acquisition news.
Beta
0.55
0.55x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-35.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$48-$76
Price range past year
Annual Return
+2.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FOXA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +12.3% | -0.5% |
| 3m | -11.4% | +4.9% |
| 6m | -20.0% | +9.7% |
| 1y | +2.2% | +18.4% |
| ytd | -21.9% | +9.0% |
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FOXA Fundamental Analysis
Fox's revenue trajectory has been uneven, with the most recent quarter (Q3 FY2026, ended March 31, 2026) reporting $3.994 billion, a decline of 8.63% year-over-year. This follows a pattern of fluctuating quarterly revenues: Q2 FY2026 had $5.182 billion, Q1 FY2026 had $3.738 billion, and Q4 FY2025 had $3.287 billion. The year-over-year decline in Q3 was driven by a 20.7% drop in the Television segment ($2.197 billion vs. $2.770 billion a year ago), partially offset by a 3.6% increase in Cable Network Programming ($1.741 billion vs. $1.680 billion). The revenue decline raises concerns about the core business's growth prospects, especially as cord-cutting accelerates.
Fox is profitable, with net income of $166 million in Q3 FY2026, though this is down from $346 million in the same quarter last year. Gross margin improved to 37.56% from 29.99% a year ago, driven by a favorable mix shift toward higher-margin cable networks. Operating margin was 20.06%, down from 25.43% in Q4 FY2025 but up from 17.39% in Q3 FY2025. Net margin fell to 4.16% from 7.92% a year ago, impacted by a $565 million loss from other income/expenses (likely related to the Roku acquisition costs). The company's profitability remains solid, but margins are compressing due to deal-related charges.
Fox maintains a strong balance sheet with a current ratio of 2.91 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.62, indicating manageable leverage. Free cash flow (TTM) is $2.362 billion, providing ample liquidity. However, the $22 billion Roku acquisition will significantly increase debt; the company had $3.601 billion in cash at the end of Q3. Return on equity (ROE) is 18.92%, reflecting efficient capital use, but this may decline post-acquisition. The free cash flow yield (FCF/price) is approximately 9.9%, suggesting the stock is cheap on a cash flow basis, but the acquisition could pressure future FCF.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-8.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
37.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.4B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FOXA Overvalued?
Since Fox has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 10.39x, while the forward P/E is 9.94x, implying the market expects earnings to grow slightly. The gap between trailing and forward P/E is narrow, suggesting limited near-term earnings growth expectations. The PEG ratio of 0.18x indicates the stock is cheap relative to its growth rate, but this is based on estimated EPS growth that may be distorted by the Roku acquisition.
Compared to the Communication Services sector, Fox's trailing P/E of 10.39x is well below the industry average of approximately 22x (based on sector data), representing a 53% discount. This discount is likely justified by Fox's declining revenue and the uncertainty surrounding the Roku deal. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.73x is also below the sector average of around 12x, reinforcing the value perception. However, the market is pricing in significant execution risk.
Historically, Fox's trailing P/E has ranged from roughly 5x to 34x over the past three years. The current 10.39x is near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its own history. The P/B ratio of 1.99x is also below the historical average of about 1.7x. This low valuation implies the market is skeptical about Fox's ability to generate growth from the Roku acquisition and may be pricing in a worst-case scenario.
PE
10.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~31x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: FOXA's core business is under pressure, with Q3 FY2026 revenue declining 8.63% YoY and net income falling from $346M to $166M. The Television segment, which accounts for over half of revenue, dropped 20.7% YoY, indicating structural challenges from cord-cutting. The $22 billion Roku acquisition will dramatically increase debt; current debt-to-equity is 0.62, but post-deal leverage could exceed 2.0x, straining free cash flow ($2.36B TTM) and potentially leading to dividend cuts or equity dilution. Net margin compressed to 4.16% from 7.92% a year ago, partly due to $565M in other expenses related to the deal.
Market & Competitive Risks: FOXA trades at a 53% discount to the sector average P/E, but this low valuation may be a value trap if the Roku acquisition fails to generate expected returns. The stock's beta of 0.55 suggests lower market correlation, but the 24.9% weekly drop in June shows event-driven volatility. Competitive threats include streaming giants like Netflix and Disney, which have superior scale and content libraries. Regulatory risk is moderate, but the Murdoch family's controlling stake could lead to governance concerns. Recent news highlights that Netflix walked away from a similar Roku deal, suggesting strategic discipline that FOXA may lack.
Worst-Case Scenario: If the Roku acquisition leads to severe integration problems, debt covenant breaches, or a prolonged advertising downturn, FOXA could fall to its 52-week low of $48.34 or below. Analyst low target is $52.60, implying a 8.7% downside from $57.62. In a worst-case scenario, the stock could retest the $45 area, representing a 22% loss from current levels. The historical max drawdown of -35.9% suggests that a decline to $37 is possible under extreme stress, but the most realistic worst case is a 15-20% drop to the $46-49 range.
