The Hartford
HIG
$140.26
+2.64%
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. is a diversified property and casualty insurer, group benefits provider, and asset manager operating primarily in the United States. As a well-established player in the insurance industry, it is recognized for service excellence and sustainability, competing with peers like Travelers and Chubb. The current investor narrative centers on the company's consistent underwriting profitability, strong capital returns via buybacks and dividends, and its ability to navigate a competitive pricing environment while maintaining margin discipline.…
HIG
The Hartford
$140.26
HIG 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on The Hartford's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $148.95 and implied upside of +6.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$148.95
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+6.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$135 - $165
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 20 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 2.26 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $149.05, implying 6.3% upside from the current price of $140.26. The consensus leans bullish, with a majority of analysts rating the stock as Overweight or Outperform. The target price range spans from a low of $135.00 to a high of $165.00. The high target of $165.00 assumes continued underwriting discipline and potential multiple expansion, while the low target of $135.00 reflects concerns about pricing pressure or catastrophe losses. Recent ratings actions show a mix: Piper Sandler downgraded from Overweight to Neutral on July 15, 2026, while Wells Fargo and Mizuho maintained Overweight and Outperform ratings, respectively. The spread between the low and high targets is $30, or 21.4% of the average target, indicating moderate uncertainty among analysts.
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Bulls vs Bears: HIG Investment Factors
HIG presents a mixed picture: strong capital returns, low valuation, and a solid balance sheet are bullish, but decelerating revenue growth, margin volatility, and limited upside near the 52-week high are bearish. The bull case currently has slightly stronger evidence due to the attractive valuation and analyst support, but the key tension is whether the company can maintain underwriting profitability and revenue growth in a maturing pricing cycle. If growth stabilizes or margins improve, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, the low growth may keep the stock range-bound.
Bullish
- Strong Capital Returns: HIG has a payout ratio of 15.98% and a dividend yield of 1.58%, supported by $5.82 billion in trailing free cash flow. The company has been consistently returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, which is attractive for income-oriented investors.
- Low Valuation with PEG of 0.36: The forward P/E of 10.1x is well below the industry average of 15x, and the PEG ratio of 0.36 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth. This provides a margin of safety and potential for multiple expansion.
- Strong Balance Sheet and Liquidity: With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23 and a current ratio of 17.65, HIG has a very strong balance sheet. The low leverage and high liquidity reduce financial risk and provide flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and investments.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with 6.3% Upside: The average analyst target price is $149.05, implying 6.3% upside from the current price of $140.26. The consensus recommendation is Buy, with a mean score of 2.26 (1=Strong Buy), indicating broad analyst support.
Bearish
- Decelerating Revenue Growth: Revenue growth slowed to 6.1% YoY in Q1 2026 from 7.3% in Q4 2025 and 6.9% in Q3 2025. This deceleration suggests that the pricing cycle may be maturing, which could pressure future earnings.
- Volatile Net Margins: Net margin dropped to 11.8% in Q1 2026 from 15.5% in Q4 2025, though it improved from 9.3% a year ago. This volatility indicates that profitability can be impacted by catastrophe losses or reserve adjustments.
- Near 52-Week High, Limited Upside: At $140.26, HIG is trading at 97.1% of its 52-week high of $144.50. The stock has limited near-term upside potential, and the 6.3% analyst target upside is modest, suggesting the stock may be fairly valued in the near term.
- Low Beta Limits Outperformance Potential: With a beta of 0.47, HIG is significantly less volatile than the market. While this provides downside protection, it also means the stock may underperform in strong bull markets, limiting capital appreciation.
HIG Technical Analysis
The Hartford is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 14.7% over the past year and currently trading at $140.26, which is 97.1% of its 52-week range ($120.33–$144.50). This positioning near the high end of the range suggests strong momentum but also implies that the stock may be approaching overbought territory, warranting caution for new entries. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with a 1-month gain of 8.2% and a 3-month gain of 0.3%, indicating a recent pickup in buying pressure. The 1-month relative strength versus the S&P 500 is +7.9%, confirming that HIG is outperforming the broader market in the near term. However, the 3-month relative strength is -4.4%, suggesting that the longer-term trend has been less impressive. Key support lies near the 52-week low of $120.33, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $144.50. A breakout above $144.50 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $120.33 could indicate a trend reversal. With a beta of 0.47, HIG is significantly less volatile than the market, making it a lower-risk holding that may underperform in strong bull markets but offer downside protection.
Beta
0.47
0.47x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-12.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$120-$145
Price range past year
Annual Return
+14.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HIG Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +8.2% | -0.5% |
| 3m | +0.3% | +4.9% |
| 6m | +8.2% | +9.7% |
| 1y | +14.7% | +18.4% |
| ytd | +2.3% | +9.0% |
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HIG Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been steady but decelerating. In Q1 2026, revenue was $7.226 billion, up 6.1% year-over-year, compared to 7.3% growth in Q4 2025 and 6.9% in Q3 2025. The company's core P&C and group benefits segments are driving growth, though the pace is slowing as pricing cycles mature. Net income for Q1 2026 was $856 million, with a net margin of 11.8%, down from 15.5% in Q4 2025 but up from 9.3% in Q1 2025. Gross margin improved to 44.7% in Q1 2026 from 41.3% a year earlier, reflecting better underwriting results. Operating margin was 14.6%, below the 19.3% in Q4 2025 but above the 11.5% in Q1 2025, indicating some volatility in profitability. The balance sheet is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23 and a current ratio of 17.65, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $5.82 billion, providing substantial capacity for dividends and share repurchases. ROE is 20.2%, well above the industry average, reflecting efficient capital use.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
44.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$5.8B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is HIG Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 10.2x, and the forward P/E is 10.1x, implying minimal growth expectations from the market. The gap between trailing and forward P/E is negligible, suggesting that analysts expect earnings to remain relatively flat. Compared to the industry average P/E of approximately 15x, HIG trades at a 32% discount, reflecting its slower growth profile and mature market position. This discount may be justified given the company's moderate revenue growth and competitive pressures. Historically, HIG's trailing P/E has ranged from 6x to 14x over the past five years. The current 10.2x is near the middle of that range, indicating that the stock is fairly valued relative to its own history. The PEG ratio of 0.36 suggests that the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate, though this should be interpreted cautiously given the low growth expectations.
PE
10.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 6x~15x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: HIG's net margin declined to 11.8% in Q1 2026 from 15.5% in Q4 2025, indicating earnings volatility. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.23, but its reliance on underwriting profitability means that adverse loss development or catastrophe events could pressure earnings. Revenue growth decelerated to 6.1% YoY, suggesting that the pricing cycle may be peaking, which could lead to margin compression if competition intensifies.
Market & Competitive Risks: HIG trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x, a 32% discount to the industry average of 15x, which already prices in low growth expectations. However, if the market re-rates insurance stocks lower due to macro headwinds or sector rotation, HIG could see further multiple compression. The stock's beta of 0.47 provides some insulation from market volatility, but it also means limited upside in strong markets. The recent downgrade by Piper Sandler highlights competitive pricing risks.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a severe scenario, a combination of catastrophe losses, reserve deficiencies, and a hard market turn could cause earnings to fall sharply. The 52-week low of $120.33 represents a 14.2% downside from the current price. If the stock were to revisit that level, an investor could lose approximately 14.2% from the current price of $140.26. The analyst low target of $135.00 implies a 3.7% downside, but a more adverse outcome could push the stock lower.
