Howmet Aerospace
HWM
$250.72
-1.88%
Howmet Aerospace Inc. is a leading provider of engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries, specializing in high-performance components such as investment castings, seamless rings, fastening systems, and forged wheels. The company operates as a critical supplier within the aerospace supply chain, holding a strong market position as a key partner to major jet engine and airframe manufacturers. The current investor narrative is driven by robust demand from the ongoing commercial aerospace recovery, evidenced by recent strategic acquisitions like Brunner Manufacturing to expand its industrial fastener business, alongside a focus on margin expansion and operational efficiency as reflected in its recent financial performance.…
HWM
Howmet Aerospace
$250.72
HWM 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Howmet Aerospace's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $325.94 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$325.94
15 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
15
covering this stock
Price Range
$201 - $326
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is robust with 15 firms providing estimates, and the institutional sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, as evidenced by recent reiterated 'Buy' or 'Outperform' ratings from firms like BTIG, RBC Capital, B of A Securities, and Goldman Sachs. The average target price implied by the estimated EPS of $8.59 and a forward PE of 42.92x is approximately $368.70, which suggests a substantial implied upside of over 40% from the current price of $258.25, indicating strong consensus optimism. The target range, derived from estimated EPS lows and highs of $8.29 to $8.87, implies a price range of roughly $356 to $381; the high end assumes continued execution on growth and margin targets, while the low end likely factors in potential macroeconomic or execution risks, though the relatively tight EPS range signals strong analyst conviction in the near-term earnings trajectory.
HWM Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained, powerful uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +51.83%, significantly outperforming the SPY's +28.21% gain. As of the latest close at $258.25, the stock is trading at approximately 92% of its 52-week range ($165.51 to $280.74), positioning it near its highs, which signals strong momentum but also raises the risk of overextension and potential for a pullback. Recent momentum shows a notable divergence: the stock gained +9.19% over the past month, yet it is down -1.63% over the past three months, indicating a recent sharp rally that has recovered from a mid-quarter consolidation phase, as seen in the price data where it fell from ~$262 in late February to ~$227 in late March before surging to ~$273 in May. The stock's beta of 1.191 indicates it is about 19% more volatile than the broader market, which is a relevant consideration for risk management, especially given its proximity to the 52-week high of $280.74, which now serves as immediate technical resistance; a decisive breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the bull run, while a failure could lead to a test of support near the 52-week low area.
Beta
1.19
1.19x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-15.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$166-$281
Price range past year
Annual Return
+45.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HWM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +4.7% | +5.4% |
| 3m | -3.6% | +10.9% |
| 6m | +27.7% | +11.0% |
| 1y | +45.2% | +28.1% |
| ytd | +18.4% | +11.4% |
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HWM Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is robust and accelerating, with Q4 2025 revenue of $2.17 billion representing a 14.65% year-over-year increase, continuing a multi-quarter trend of sequential growth from $1.94B in Q1 to $2.17B in Q4. The Engine Products segment, at $1.17 billion for the period, is the primary growth driver, underscoring the company's leverage to the aerospace upcycle. Profitability is strong and margins are expanding, with Q4 net income of $372 million and a gross margin of 31.5%, up from 28.6% in the year-ago quarter; the operating margin also improved to 25.8% from 24.2% a year ago, demonstrating effective cost control and operating leverage. The balance sheet is healthy with a solid current ratio of 2.13 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57, while the company generates substantial cash, evidenced by trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.21 billion and a strong return on equity of 28.17%, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital and the ability to internally fund growth and shareholder returns.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.2B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.14%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.31%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is HWM Overvalued?
Given the company's substantial net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is elevated at 54.93x, while the forward PE is lower at 42.92x, indicating the market is pricing in significant earnings growth expectations for the coming year. Compared to the provided industry average PE of 22x (implied from the historical context data showing the stock's own historical range), Howmet's current trailing PE of 54.93x represents a massive 150% premium, which is likely justified by its superior growth trajectory, margin expansion, and leading position in a recovering aerospace cycle. Historically, the stock's own PE ratio has expanded dramatically from a low of around 23.6x at the end of 2021 to the current 54.93x, placing it near the top of its multi-year valuation band; this suggests the market has already priced in a very optimistic outlook, leaving limited room for multiple expansion and increasing sensitivity to any earnings disappointment.
PE
54.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 22x~124x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
35.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
