Intuit
INTU
$291.09
-1.26%
Intuit Inc. provides financial management and tax preparation software for small businesses, consumers, and accounting professionals, primarily through its QuickBooks, TurboTax, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp platforms. As the dominant player in U.S. small-business accounting and DIY tax filing, Intuit commands a powerful ecosystem that benefits from high switching costs and recurring subscription revenue. The current investor narrative centers on a strategic pivot toward AI-driven products, which has sparked both optimism about long-term growth and deep concern over near-term disruption, as evidenced by a 17% workforce reduction and warnings of declining TurboTax users that triggered a sharp sell-off despite a beat-and-raise quarter.…
INTU
Intuit
$291.09
Related headlines
INTU 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Intuit's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $473.68 and implied upside of +62.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$473.68
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+62.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$250 - $921
Analyst target range
Intuit is covered by 33 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 1.69 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average price target is $473.68, implying 69.3% upside from the current price of $279.70. The distribution leans bullish: the majority of ratings are Buy or Outperform, though recent downgrades (Stifel to Hold, Goldman Sachs to Sell) indicate growing caution. The target range spans from a low of $250.00 to a high of $921.00, a spread of $671 that reflects extreme uncertainty. The high target of $921 assumes a successful AI transformation that restores growth and margins, potentially justifying a multiple expansion back toward historical peaks. The low target of $250 suggests a scenario where AI disruption erodes the core tax business and margins compress further, leading to a valuation closer to the 52-week low. Recent rating actions show a mix: Stifel downgraded from Buy to Hold in June 2026, while Goldman Sachs downgraded to Sell in the same month, contrasting with reaffirmed Buy ratings from Citigroup, Keybanc, and Jefferies in May. This divergence underscores the lack of consensus on the stock's trajectory, with the wide target spread signaling high uncertainty and elevated risk.
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Bulls vs Bears: INTU Investment Factors
Intuit presents a classic high-risk, high-reward dichotomy. The bull case rests on a dominant software franchise with high switching costs, massive free cash flow, and a forward P/E of 10.2x that implies deep value if the AI transition succeeds. The bear case centers on a severe technical breakdown, AI disruption threatening the core TurboTax business, and extreme earnings uncertainty with a 264% implied rebound. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger given the 62.5% price decline, accelerating negative momentum, and credible threats to the tax franchise. The single most important tension is whether Intuit's AI restructuring will restore growth and margins or permanently impair its competitive position—the resolution of this factor will determine whether the stock is a value trap or a generational buying opportunity.
Bullish
- Dominant Market Position with High Switching Costs: Intuit's QuickBooks and TurboTax hold dominant market share in small-business accounting and DIY tax filing, creating a powerful ecosystem with high switching costs. This moat supports recurring subscription revenue and pricing power, evidenced by 84.5% gross margins and $7.7 billion in TTM free cash flow.
- Massive Upside to Analyst Targets: The average analyst price target of $473.68 implies 69.3% upside from the current price of $279.70, with a high target of $921.00 suggesting potential for over 3x returns if the AI transformation succeeds. The consensus rating is Buy (1.69 on a 1-5 scale), indicating broad institutional optimism.
- Compelling Forward Valuation: The forward P/E of 10.2x is a steep discount to the software industry average of ~25x and near the low end of Intuit's historical forward multiple range. If consensus EPS estimates of $40.43 materialize, the stock is deeply undervalued, offering a significant margin of safety.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Intuit generated $7.715 billion in TTM free cash flow, representing a 3.5% FCF yield at the current market cap. This cash flow supports aggressive share repurchases ($1.675 billion in Q3 alone) and a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.34.
Bearish
- Severe Price Decline and Technical Breakdown: The stock has fallen 62.5% over the past year and is trading at just 34.4% of its 52-week range, near the low of $252.84. The 1-month decline of 73.5% and relative strength of -133.5% versus the S&P 500 indicate intense selling pressure and a market pricing in significant fundamental deterioration.
- AI Disruption Threatens Core Tax Business: Management warned of declining TurboTax users and announced a 17% workforce reduction, signaling that AI competition is eroding the core tax preparation franchise. This structural threat could permanently impair growth and margins, justifying the market's pessimistic revaluation.
- Massive Earnings Uncertainty: The trailing P/E of 56.8x versus a forward P/E of 10.2x implies the market expects a 264% earnings rebound next year—an extremely optimistic assumption. If EPS falls short of the $40.43 consensus, the stock could face further multiple compression and downside.
- Divergent Analyst Sentiment and Wide Target Range: Despite a consensus Buy, recent downgrades from Stifel (to Hold) and Goldman Sachs (to Sell) highlight growing caution. The analyst target range spans from $250 to $921, a $671 spread that reflects extreme uncertainty and a lack of consensus on the stock's trajectory.
INTU Technical Analysis
Intuit is in a severe downtrend, with the stock down 62.5% over the past year and currently trading at just 34.4% of its 52-week range ($252.84 low to $813.70 high). The price sits near the low end of the range at $279.70, suggesting persistent selling pressure and a market that is pricing in significant fundamental deterioration rather than a value opportunity. The 1-year relative strength versus the S&P 500 is an extreme -83.4%, underscoring the stock's dramatic underperformance. Short-term momentum remains decisively negative: the stock has fallen 27.7% over the past three months and 73.5% over the past month, with the 1-month decline accelerating relative to the 3-month trend. This divergence from the longer-term downtrend indicates intensifying bearish sentiment, likely driven by the May 2026 earnings reaction and AI disruption fears. The 1-month relative strength of -133.5% versus the S&P 500 confirms that Intuit is being sold off far more aggressively than the broad market. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $252.84, a break below which would signal a new leg lower and potentially test the $250 area. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $813.70, but more immediate resistance is near the $300 round number. The stock's beta of 1.0 indicates volatility roughly in line with the market, but the magnitude of the drawdown (-68.4% max drawdown) reflects company-specific risk rather than systematic factors.
Beta
1.00
1.00x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-68.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$253-$814
Price range past year
Annual Return
-61.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | INTU Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +8.2% | +0.3% |
| 3m | -26.0% | +4.7% |
| 6m | -46.6% | +7.5% |
| 1y | -61.5% | +18.4% |
| ytd | -53.8% | +9.0% |
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INTU Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth remains solid but is decelerating: the most recent quarter (Q3 FY2026, ended April 30, 2026) posted revenue of $8.558 billion, up 10.4% year-over-year, compared to 14.5% growth in the prior-year Q3. The Consumer segment generated $5.273 billion and Global Business Solutions $3.285 billion, with the consumer tax business driving the bulk of revenue during tax season. However, management's warning of declining TurboTax users and a 17% workforce reduction signals that growth may slow further as the company restructures around AI. Profitability is robust: net income for Q3 was $3.064 billion, with a net margin of 35.8%, up from 36.4% a year ago. Gross margin remains high at 84.5%, reflecting the software's scalable nature. Operating margin expanded to 47.0% from 48.0% in the prior-year quarter, indicating slight compression due to restructuring costs. The company is solidly profitable with trailing EPS of $11.10 and a trailing PE of 56.8x. The balance sheet is healthy: debt-to-equity is low at 0.34, and the current ratio of 1.36x suggests adequate liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) is $7.715 billion, representing a FCF yield of 3.5% at the current market cap. The company generates ample cash to fund operations and share repurchases ($1.675 billion in Q3 alone), reducing reliance on external financing. ROE stands at 19.6%, reflecting efficient capital use, though this is down from historical levels due to the depressed stock price.
Quarterly Revenue
$8.6B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+10.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
84.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$7.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is INTU Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the PE ratio. The trailing PE is 56.8x, while the forward PE is just 10.2x, implying that the market expects a dramatic earnings rebound next year. This massive gap reflects the consensus estimate of $40.43 in EPS for the coming year, which would represent a 264% increase from trailing EPS of $11.10—a highly optimistic assumption that may be pricing in a full recovery from the current restructuring. Compared to the software industry, Intuit's trailing PE of 56.8x is well above the sector average (typically ~30x), representing a 89% premium. However, the forward PE of 10.2x is a steep discount to the industry average of ~25x, suggesting that if the earnings estimates materialize, the stock is deeply undervalued. This dichotomy highlights the extreme uncertainty around the AI transition. Historically, Intuit's trailing PE has ranged from 8.8x (Q3 2026) to over 200x (Q1 2025), with the current 56.8x near the middle of its recent range. The forward PE of 10.2x is near the low end of its historical forward multiple band, indicating that the market is pricing in a pessimistic scenario unless the company delivers on its AI-driven growth strategy.
PE
56.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 9x~400x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
38.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Intuit's most immediate financial risk is the extreme earnings uncertainty embedded in its valuation. The trailing P/E of 56.8x implies the market is paying a premium for past performance, while the forward P/E of 10.2x assumes a 264% EPS rebound to $40.43—a highly optimistic target that leaves no room for disappointment. The company's net margin of 35.8% in Q3 is robust, but the 17% workforce reduction and warning of declining TurboTax users suggest that restructuring costs and revenue pressure could compress margins in the near term. Additionally, while the balance sheet is healthy with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34, the stock's massive drawdown (-68.4% max drawdown) indicates that the market is already pricing in severe fundamental deterioration, and any further negative news could trigger additional selling.
Market & Competitive Risks: The primary external threat is AI-driven disruption to Intuit's core tax preparation business. The warning of declining TurboTax users suggests that free or lower-cost AI alternatives are eroding the company's competitive moat, which has historically been protected by high switching costs and regulatory complexity. The stock's beta of 1.0 indicates market-level volatility, but the 62.5% annual decline and -83.4% relative strength versus the S&P 500 reflect company-specific risk far beyond systematic factors. Recent news highlights a rotation out of software into AI infrastructure names, with Intuit being particularly punished due to its exposure to AI disruption. The wide analyst target range ($250 to $921) and recent downgrades from Stifel and Goldman Sachs underscore the lack of consensus and elevated uncertainty.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a worst-case scenario, AI competition accelerates, causing TurboTax users to decline faster than expected, margins to compress below 30%, and the company to miss consensus EPS estimates of $40.43 by a wide margin. This could trigger a wave of analyst downgrades and multiple compression, driving the stock to the analyst low target of $250 or below. From the current price of $279.70, this represents a potential loss of approximately 10.6% to the 52-week low of $252.84, or up to 35% if the stock breaks below that level and tests the $200 area. The historical max drawdown of -68.4% from the 52-week high of $813.70 to the current price has already occurred, but further downside of 10-35% remains plausible in a severe bear scenario.
