Knight-Swift Transportation
KNX
$68.51
+1.89%
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is the largest full-truckload carrier in the United States, offering a diversified range of transportation services including full truckload (dry van, refrigerated, and dedicated contract), less-than-truckload (LTL), truck brokerage, intermodal, and other asset-light logistics services. The company's scale and breadth make it a market leader in the trucking industry, with a competitive edge derived from its extensive network and diversified service portfolio. Currently, the stock is under scrutiny as investors debate whether the recent rally has outpaced the actual pace of recovery in freight demand, with concerns about valuation and the potential entry of Amazon into third-party logistics adding to the narrative.…
KNX
Knight-Swift Transportation
$68.51
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy KNX Today?
Rating: Hold. Knight-Swift is a quality market leader with a diversified business, but current fundamentals are weak and the stock is trading at a premium to its historical valuation. The average analyst target of $88.63 offers 31.8% upside, but the wide range ($57-$100) reflects high uncertainty. The thesis is that the company will benefit from a cyclical recovery in freight demand, but the timing and magnitude are uncertain.
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KNX 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. While the company has a strong market position and positive free cash flow, the current fundamentals are weak, and the valuation is demanding. The stock's performance will hinge on the pace of the freight recovery. If margins improve faster than expected, the stock could rally to the high target; if not, it may drift lower. Upgrades to bullish would require evidence of sustained margin expansion and earnings growth, while downgrades to bearish would be triggered by further deterioration in revenue or margins.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Knight-Swift Transportation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $88.63 and implied upside of +29.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$88.63
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+29.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$57 - $100
Analyst target range
Knight-Swift is covered by 19 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'none' (though the majority of recent ratings are Buy or Overweight). The average target price is $88.63, implying an upside of 31.8% from the current price of $67.24. The target range is wide, from a low of $57.00 to a high of $100.00, indicating significant uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target of $100 assumes a strong recovery in freight rates and margins, while the low target of $57 suggests that the market may be overestimating the pace of recovery. Recent ratings have been mostly positive, with upgrades from Citigroup and Benchmark in July 2026, but the wide spread in targets highlights the divergent views on the stock's prospects.
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Bulls vs Bears: KNX Investment Factors
Knight-Swift presents a classic cyclical recovery play with strong market position and analyst optimism, but current fundamentals are weak. The bull case rests on a robust freight recovery that would restore margins and earnings, while the bear case highlights margin compression, negative earnings, and competitive threats. The evidence slightly favors the bull case given the stock's strong momentum and analyst targets, but the key tension is whether the recovery materializes quickly enough to justify the valuation. If freight rates rebound as expected, KNX could see significant upside; if not, the stock faces downside risk to the low target of $57.
Bullish
- Strong 1-Year Price Performance: KNX stock has surged 53.06% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18.56% gain. This reflects improving investor sentiment and expectations of a cyclical recovery in freight demand.
- Analyst Target Upside of 31.8%: The average analyst target price is $88.63, implying a 31.8% upside from the current price of $67.24. With 19 analysts covering, the high target of $100 suggests substantial potential if the recovery accelerates.
- Diversified Business Model: Knight-Swift is the largest full-truckload carrier in the US, with 82% of revenue from asset-based trucking (63% full truckload, 19% LTL) and 18% from asset-light services like brokerage and intermodal. This diversification provides multiple revenue streams and resilience.
- Positive Free Cash Flow: The company generated $1.25 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, indicating strong cash generation despite margin pressure. This provides financial flexibility for debt reduction, dividends, or strategic investments.
Bearish
- Sharp Margin Contraction: Gross margin plummeted to 9.63% in Q1 2026 from 23.87% a year earlier, and operating margin fell to 1.62% from 3.65%. This indicates severe pricing pressure and cost inflation in the trucking industry, eroding profitability.
- Negative Earnings in Q1 2026: The company reported a net loss of $1.3 million in Q1 2026, a sharp reversal from a $30.6 million profit in Q1 2025. This highlights the cyclical downturn and raises concerns about near-term earnings sustainability.
- Elevated Trailing PE of 127.5x: The trailing PE ratio is 127.5x, reflecting depressed earnings. While the forward PE of 16.8x implies a recovery, the wide gap suggests high expectations that may not be met if the recovery stalls.
- Negative PEG Ratio: The PEG ratio is -2.91, indicating that growth expectations are not being met currently. This negative metric suggests the stock may be overvalued relative to its growth prospects, making it vulnerable to de-rating.
KNX Technical Analysis
Knight-Swift's stock has exhibited a strong uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +53.06%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.56% over the same period. The current price of $67.24 sits at 81.1% of the 52-week range (low of $38.63, high of $82.86), indicating that the stock is trading closer to its highs but has pulled back from the peak. This positioning suggests that while momentum has been positive, the stock may be facing resistance near its highs, and the recent pullback could be a sign of consolidation or a potential trend reversal.
Beta
1.19
1.19x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-18.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$39-$83
Price range past year
Annual Return
+56.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | KNX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.5% | +2.7% |
| 3m | -11.7% | +1.0% |
| 6m | +7.9% | +12.0% |
| 1y | +56.1% | +18.9% |
| ytd | +31.2% | +12.5% |
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KNX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue in the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) was $1,850.2 million, up 1.42% year-over-year, but the growth rate has been modest and inconsistent, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1,856.3 million and Q3 2025 revenue of $1,927.1 million showing a slight sequential decline. The company's net income in Q1 2026 was a loss of $1.3 million, a sharp reversal from the $30.6 million profit in Q1 2025, and the gross margin contracted to 9.63% from 23.87% a year earlier, reflecting significant margin pressure. The operating margin also fell to 1.62% from 3.65% in the prior year, indicating that the company is struggling to maintain profitability amid a challenging freight environment.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
9.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is KNX Overvalued?
Given that Knight-Swift's trailing twelve-month net income is positive (though the most recent quarter was a loss), the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 127.5x, which is elevated, while the forward PE is 16.8x, implying that the market expects a substantial earnings recovery. This wide gap between trailing and forward earnings suggests that the market is pricing in a strong cyclical rebound, but the negative PEG ratio of -2.91 indicates that growth expectations are not being met currently. Compared to the industry average, Knight-Swift's forward PE of 16.8x is at a premium to the sector, reflecting its market leadership and diversified business model, but the premium may be justified if the recovery materializes as expected.
PE
127.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 9x~96x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are significant, as evidenced by the Q1 2026 net loss of $1.3 million and gross margin collapse to 9.63% from 23.87% a year ago. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.41 is manageable, but interest expenses of $30.7 million in Q1 2026 add pressure. Revenue growth is sluggish at 1.42% YoY, and the negative PEG ratio of -2.91 suggests that growth expectations are not being met, making the stock vulnerable to earnings disappointments. The payout ratio of 178% indicates that dividends are not fully covered by earnings, which could lead to cuts if losses persist.
