Knight-Swift Transportation
KNX
$77.32
+5.10%
Knight-Swift Transportation is the largest full-truckload carrier in the US, providing a diversified range of transportation services including truckload, less-than-truckload, intermodal, and logistics. As the market leader in the trucking industry, it operates a vast asset-based network that distinguishes it from smaller competitors. The current investor narrative centers on the cyclical recovery in freight demand, with recent stock volatility reflecting debate over whether the recovery is fully priced in. News of Amazon's entry into third-party logistics has also introduced structural concerns, though Knight-Swift's scale and diversification may provide a buffer.…
KNX
Knight-Swift Transportation
$77.32
Related headlines
KNX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Knight-Swift Transportation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $86.63 and implied upside of +12.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$86.63
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+12.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$54 - $100
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 19 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 1.65 on a 1-5 scale). The average target price is $86.63, implying 17.8% upside from the current price of $73.57. The distribution leans bullish, with recent upgrades from Citigroup (Neutral to Buy) and maintained Buy ratings from Stifel, Benchmark, and Goldman Sachs. The target range spans from $54.00 (low) to $100.00 (high). The high target of $100 assumes a strong cyclical recovery and potential multiple expansion, while the low target of $54 reflects downside risks from a prolonged freight recession or margin compression. The wide spread ($46) indicates high uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of the recovery. Recent institutional ratings show mostly positive actions, with upgrades and reiterations of Buy/Overweight, suggesting analyst sentiment remains constructive despite the recent pullback.
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Bulls vs Bears: KNX Investment Factors
Knight-Swift presents a classic cyclical recovery play with strong free cash flow and market leadership, but faces near-term earnings depression and structural threats from Amazon's 3PL entry. The bull case hinges on a sharp earnings rebound (forward PE 19.3x) and low PS ratio, while the bear case focuses on margin compression and stagnant revenue. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given analyst consensus Buy rating and 17.8% upside to the average target, but the key tension is whether the earnings recovery materializes as expected or if the freight downturn persists, which would make the high trailing PE unsustainable.
Bullish
- Cyclical Recovery Expected to Boost Earnings: Analysts forecast EPS of $5.21 for the next fiscal year, implying a sharp rebound from the trailing EPS of $0.01. The forward PE of 19.3x is reasonable for a cyclical recovery, and the consensus average target of $86.63 offers 17.8% upside from the current price of $73.57.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Knight-Swift generated $1.25 billion in trailing free cash flow, providing ample liquidity for dividends, debt reduction, and strategic investments. This cash flow supports a dividend yield of 1.38% and a payout ratio of 178%, though the high payout ratio is a concern.
- Market Leadership and Diversification: As the largest full-truckload carrier in the US, Knight-Swift benefits from scale and diversification across truckload (63% of revenue), LTL (19%), intermodal (5%), and logistics (8%). This diversification helps mitigate risks in any single segment.
- Favorable Valuation on Sales Basis: The price-to-sales ratio of 1.14x is well below the 5-year average of ~4.5x, suggesting the stock is cheap on a revenue basis. This low PS ratio may attract value-oriented investors anticipating a recovery.
Bearish
- Trailing Earnings Deeply Depressed: The trailing PE of 127.5x is extremely high, reflecting trough earnings. Net income in Q1 2026 was -$1.3 million, a swing from $30.6 million in Q1 2025, and gross margin collapsed to 9.6% from 23.9% a year ago. This indicates severe margin pressure.
- Revenue Growth Stagnant: Revenue in Q1 2026 was $1.85 billion, up only 1.4% year-over-year, and the trajectory shows deceleration from 2.9% growth in Q2 2025. The flat revenue trend suggests a soft freight environment with limited pricing power.
- Amazon's 3PL Entry Poses Structural Threat: Amazon's entry into third-party logistics, targeting a $1.3 trillion TAM, could disrupt traditional transport companies. This structural threat may compress margins and market share for incumbents like Knight-Swift over the long term.
- High Valuation Uncertainty and Wide Target Range: Analyst targets range from $54 (low) to $100 (high), a $46 spread indicating high uncertainty. The stock's beta of 1.19 amplifies market moves, and the recent 1-month decline of -7.2% suggests profit-taking after a strong run.
KNX Technical Analysis
The stock is in a strong uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +61.98%. Currently trading at $73.57, it sits at 88.8% of its 52-week range ($38.63–$82.86), indicating the stock is near the highs but not overextended. This positioning suggests bullish momentum but also implies that much of the positive news may already be priced in. Over the last 3 months, the stock has gained 14.36%, while the 1-month change is -7.17%, showing a short-term pullback from the June peak of $82.45. This divergence between the 1-month decline and the strong 1-year trend could signal a temporary correction within a broader uptrend, possibly driven by profit-taking or concerns about valuation. The RSI is not directly provided, but the pullback from highs suggests it may have been overbought. The 52-week low of $38.63 serves as key support, while the 52-week high of $82.86 is the immediate resistance. A breakout above $82.86 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $73.57 (recent support) could lead to a test of lower levels. The stock's beta of 1.189 indicates it is 18.9% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning it amplifies market moves and requires careful risk management.
Beta
1.19
1.19x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-19.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$39-$83
Price range past year
Annual Return
+71.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | KNX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -0.0% | +0.1% |
| 3m | +20.0% | +5.7% |
| 6m | +36.5% | +8.5% |
| 1y | +71.6% | +20.3% |
| ytd | +48.0% | +10.1% |
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KNX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been relatively stable, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.85 billion, up 1.42% year-over-year from $1.824 billion in Q1 2025. However, the trajectory shows deceleration from the 2.9% growth in Q2 2025 and the 3.2% growth in Q3 2025. The truckload segment (63% of revenue) is likely driving the modest growth, while the LTL segment (19%) may be a drag. The flat revenue trend suggests the company is navigating a soft freight environment. Profitability has weakened significantly. Net income in Q1 2026 was -$1.317 million, compared to $30.639 million in Q1 2025, a swing to a loss. Gross margin compressed to 9.63% from 23.87% a year ago, reflecting higher costs or pricing pressure. The operating margin fell to 1.62% from 3.65%. The company is barely profitable on a trailing basis (net margin 0.88%), and the trend is concerning. The balance sheet remains healthy. Debt-to-equity is 0.41, manageable, and the current ratio is 0.86, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) is $1.246 billion, providing ample cushion for dividends and capex. ROE is 0.93%, low but positive. The company generates sufficient cash to fund operations without external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
9.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is KNX Overvalued?
Since net income is positive on a trailing basis (TTM net income ~$1.3 million), the PE ratio is the primary metric. The trailing PE is 127.5x, while the forward PE is 19.3x. The large gap implies the market expects a sharp earnings recovery in the next year, consistent with the cyclical rebound narrative. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but trucking typically trades at 15-20x forward earnings), the forward PE of 19.3x appears reasonable, though the trailing PE is extremely high due to depressed earnings. The stock trades at a PS ratio of 1.14x, which is below the 5-year average of ~4.5x, suggesting it is cheap on a sales basis. Historically, the trailing PE has ranged from 8.6x (Q2 2022) to over 200x (recent quarters). The current trailing PE of 127.5x is near the top of its historical range, reflecting trough earnings. The forward PE of 19.3x is closer to historical norms, indicating that if earnings recover as expected, valuation is not excessive.
PE
127.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 9x~96x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Knight-Swift's profitability has deteriorated sharply, with net income swinging to a loss of -$1.3 million in Q1 2026 from a profit of $30.6 million a year ago. Gross margin compressed to 9.6% from 23.9%, indicating significant cost or pricing pressure. The company's high payout ratio of 178% on dividends suggests the dividend may not be fully covered by earnings, though free cash flow of $1.25 billion provides a cushion. Debt-to-equity of 0.41 is manageable, but the current ratio of 0.86 indicates potential liquidity tightness if cash flow weakens further.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's trailing PE of 127.5x is extremely high, making it vulnerable to multiple compression if the recovery disappoints. The beta of 1.19 implies higher volatility than the market, amplifying downside in a downturn. Amazon's entry into third-party logistics is a structural threat that could compress margins and market share over time. The wide analyst target range ($54-$100) reflects high uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of the freight recovery.
Worst-Case Scenario: If the freight recession deepens or Amazon's 3PL entry disrupts pricing, Knight-Swift could see further margin erosion and earnings decline. In this scenario, the stock could fall to the 52-week low of $38.63, representing a -47.5% decline from the current price of $73.57. This aligns with the analyst low target of $54, but a more severe downturn could push it lower.
