Modernland Realty Ltd
MDLN
$40.85
+1.36%
Medline is the largest provider of medical-surgical products and supply chain solutions in the US, offering over 190,000 branded products and 150,000 third-party items to major health systems. As a dominant player in the Medical - Instruments & Supplies industry, it leverages scale with 30+ manufacturing facilities and a fleet of 2,000 delivery trucks. The current investor narrative centers on near-term headwinds from a distribution center fire and FDA safety concerns, which have created operational uncertainty and weighed on sentiment despite the company's strong market position.…
MDLN
Modernland Realty Ltd
$40.85
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MDLN 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Modernland Realty Ltd's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $53.11 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$53.11
9 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
9
covering this stock
Price Range
$33 - $53
Analyst target range
Medline is covered by 9 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish based on recent ratings: all 9 analysts have Buy or Overweight ratings, with no Holds or Sells. The average target price is not directly provided, but using the estimated EPS average of $2.39 and forward PE of 25.9x implies a target of ~$61.8, representing +43% upside from the current price of $43.19. The consensus recommendation is strong Buy, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term prospects despite near-term headwinds. The target range is wide: low EPS estimate of $2.34 and high of $3.16, implying a price range of $60.6 to $81.8 based on forward PE. The high target assumes margin recovery and growth acceleration, while the low target prices in operational disruptions from the fire and FDA issues. The wide spread signals high uncertainty, but the recent ratings reaffirmations (e.g., JP Morgan Overweight, Tigress Buy) suggest analysts see the current dip as a buying opportunity. Insufficient analyst coverage is not an issue here, as 9 analysts provide robust coverage for a recently public company.
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MDLN Technical Analysis
The stock is in a recovery phase after a sharp downtrend, with a 1-year price change of +6.3% but a 3-month decline of -2.5%. Currently trading at $43.19, it sits at 85% of its 52-week range ($32.82-$50.88), indicating a bounce from lows but still below highs. This positioning suggests the stock is recovering from oversold conditions but has not yet regained full momentum. Short-term momentum is strong, with a 1-month gain of 30.1%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's -1.25% over the same period. However, the 3-month change of -2.5% contrasts with the 1-year gain, signaling that the recent rally may be a mean-reversion bounce within a longer-term consolidation. The relative strength index (RSI) is not provided, but the sharp 1-month move suggests overbought conditions may be emerging. Key support is at the 52-week low of $32.82, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $50.88. A breakout above $50.88 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $32.82 could indicate further downside. Beta is not available, but the stock's volatility is evident from its 33.6% maximum drawdown, implying higher risk than the broader market.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-33.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$33-$51
Price range past year
Annual Return
—
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MDLN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +13.4% | +2.0% |
| 3m | -10.4% | +10.6% |
| 6m | +0.8% | +8.3% |
| 1y | — | +20.4% |
| ytd | +0.6% | +10.2% |
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MDLN Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing strongly, with Q4 2025 revenue of $7.787 billion, up 21.9% year-over-year. The trailing twelve-month revenue trend shows acceleration from $6.644 billion in Q1 2025 to $7.787 billion in Q4 2025, driven by organic growth and market share gains. The company's scale and prime vendor relationships support this trajectory, though near-term headwinds from the distribution center fire may temper growth. Profitability is solid, with net income of $180 million in Q4 2025 and a net margin of 2.3%, though this is lower than the 4.8% margin in Q3 2025 due to higher costs. Gross margin was 24.6% in Q4 2025, slightly down from 25.1% in Q2 2025, indicating some margin compression. Operating margin of 5.5% in Q4 2025 is below the 9.1% in Q2 2025, reflecting increased operating expenses. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.17, indicating moderate leverage, and a current ratio of 4.29, suggesting strong liquidity. Free cash flow was $571 million in Q4 2025, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $1.744 billion, providing ample cash for operations and investment. ROE is 10.8%, demonstrating efficient use of equity.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.8B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+21.90%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
24.58%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is MDLN Overvalued?
Since net income is positive ($180 million in Q4 2025), the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 29.4x, while the forward PE is 25.9x, implying the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests a 12% expected earnings increase, which aligns with the company's growth trajectory. Compared to the industry, Medline's PS ratio of 1.2x is below the sector average (not provided, but typical for medical supplies is ~2-3x), indicating a potential discount. However, the PE of 29.4x is above the industry average of ~22x, reflecting a 34% premium, which may be justified by its market leadership and growth. Historically, the trailing PE of 29.4x is near the lower end of its range over the past year (which peaked at 47.4x in Q4 2025), suggesting the stock is relatively cheap compared to its own history. This could indicate a value opportunity if fundamentals remain strong, but the recent decline in margins warrants caution.
PE
29.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 24x~47x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
22.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
