MasTec
MTZ
$384.72
+0.48%
MasTec is a leading infrastructure construction company operating across North America, specializing in engineering, building, installing, and maintaining communications, energy, utility, and other infrastructure. As a diversified infrastructure player with five reporting segments—communications, clean energy and infrastructure, pipeline infrastructure, power delivery, and other—it benefits from secular tailwinds in renewable energy, 5G deployment, and grid modernization. The current investor narrative centers on MasTec's strong revenue growth driven by its clean energy and communications segments, though margin compression and a high debt load remain key debates. Recent analyst actions have been uniformly bullish, with multiple firms reiterating Buy ratings following the company's robust quarterly results.…
MTZ
MasTec
$384.72
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MTZ Today?
Rating: Buy. MasTec offers a compelling risk/reward profile driven by accelerating revenue growth, improving profitability, and strong secular tailwinds in clean energy and communications. The analyst consensus is unanimously bullish with an average EPS estimate of $20.89, implying a forward P/E of 17.9x, which is attractive relative to the growth rate.
Supporting evidence: (1) Revenue growth accelerated to 15.8% YoY in Q4 2025, with multi-quarter acceleration from 5.9% in Q2 2025. (2) Net income surged 91% YoY, and operating margin improved to 5.3% from 4.1%. (3) The PEG ratio of 0.29 suggests undervaluation relative to earnings growth. (4) The forward P/E of 17.9x is well below the trailing 42.5x, indicating the market expects significant earnings expansion. Compared to the industry average forward P/E of ~20x, MasTec trades at a slight discount on a forward basis.
Risks & Conditions: The primary risks are gross margin compression (down to 10.1% from 12.8%) and elevated trailing valuation (42.5x P/E). This Buy rating would be downgraded to Hold if revenue growth decelerates below 10% or if gross margins fall below 9%. It would be upgraded further if the company demonstrates sustained margin expansion above 12% gross margin. Overall, MasTec appears fairly valued on a forward basis but overvalued on trailing metrics; the investment thesis hinges on the company delivering the expected earnings growth.
Sign up to view all
MTZ 12-Month Price Forecast
MasTec's strong revenue acceleration, improving profitability, and attractive forward valuation support a bullish stance. The key risk is the elevated trailing P/E of 42.5x, which leaves the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints. However, the low PEG ratio and strong analyst conviction suggest the market is not fully pricing in the growth potential. We would upgrade to higher confidence if gross margins show sustained improvement above 11%, and downgrade to neutral if revenue growth falls below 10% or if the company issues negative guidance.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on MasTec's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $500.14 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$500.14
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$308 - $500
Analyst target range
MasTec has coverage from 5 analysts, with a consensus leaning strongly bullish. All recent ratings are Buy or Outperform, with no Hold or Sell recommendations. The average estimated EPS for the current fiscal year is $20.89, with a range of $19.64 to $22.02. The average revenue estimate is $27.44 billion, with a range of $26.18 billion to $28.58 billion. While specific price targets are not provided in the data, the consensus EPS implies a forward P/E of 17.9x based on the current price of $373.43, which is well below the trailing P/E of 42.5x, suggesting significant earnings growth is expected. The implied upside based on the average EPS estimate and a reasonable multiple would be substantial, but without explicit targets, we note the strong buy consensus. The analyst target range, if inferred from EPS estimates, suggests a wide dispersion, with the high estimate ($22.02) implying a forward P/E of 17.0x and the low estimate ($19.64) implying 19.0x. This tight range indicates relatively high conviction among analysts. The high estimate likely assumes continued strong execution in clean energy and communications, while the low estimate may factor in potential margin headwinds or project delays. The uniform bullishness from firms like Jefferies, Mizuho, and Citigroup, with repeated Buy ratings, reinforces positive sentiment. However, the lack of explicit price targets limits the precision of upside calculation.
Drowning in data?
Find the real signal!
Bulls vs Bears: MTZ Investment Factors
MasTec presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, surging earnings, and strong analyst support. The bull case is anchored by secular tailwinds in clean energy and communications, a PEG ratio of 0.29 suggesting undervaluation relative to growth, and a forward P/E of 17.9x that implies substantial earnings expansion. However, the bear case highlights a trailing P/E of 42.5x—a 112% premium to the industry—and gross margin compression that could pressure profitability. The single most important tension is whether the company can sustain its revenue growth trajectory and expand margins to justify the premium valuation. If growth continues at 15%+ and margins improve, the stock has significant upside; any deceleration could trigger multiple compression and a sharp correction. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the accelerating growth and analyst conviction, but the valuation risk demands close monitoring.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q4 2025 revenue grew 15.8% YoY to $3.94B, accelerating from 9.9% in Q3 2025 and 5.9% in Q2 2025. This multi-quarter acceleration is driven by clean energy and communications segments, positioning MasTec to benefit from secular infrastructure tailwinds.
- Strong Earnings Momentum: Net income surged 91% YoY to $142.7M in Q4 2025, with EPS of $1.83 versus $0.96 in the prior year. Operating margin improved to 5.3% from 4.1%, demonstrating operating leverage as revenue scales.
- Analyst Consensus Strongly Bullish: All 5 analysts rate the stock Buy/Outperform, with average EPS estimate of $20.89 for the current fiscal year. The implied forward P/E of 17.9x is well below the trailing 42.5x, suggesting significant expected earnings growth.
- Attractive PEG Ratio: The PEG ratio of 0.29 indicates the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate. This is well below the threshold of 1.0, suggesting the market has not fully priced in the growth trajectory.
Bearish
- Elevated Valuation vs. Peers: Trailing P/E of 42.5x is a 112% premium to the industry median of ~20x. While growth justifies some premium, the current multiple leaves little room for error and could compress if growth decelerates.
- Gross Margin Compression: Gross margin declined to 10.1% in Q4 2025 from 12.8% in Q4 2024, indicating cost pressures. This could signal competitive pricing or project mix shifts that may pressure profitability.
- High Beta and Volatility Risk: With a beta of 1.768, the stock is 76.8% more volatile than the S&P 500. This amplifies downside risk during market corrections, as evidenced by the 13% pullback from the June 2025 high of $429.09.
- Low Free Cash Flow Yield: FCF yield is approximately 1.2% based on current market cap, which is low for an industrial company. This limits the company's ability to reduce debt or return capital to shareholders.
MTZ Technical Analysis
MasTec is in a powerful sustained uptrend, with the stock up 120.5% over the past year, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's 19.1% gain. The current price of $373.43 sits at 84.6% of its 52-week range ($160.08 to $441.43), indicating the stock is trading near the upper end of its range, reflecting strong momentum but also potential overextension. The 52-week high of $441.43 represents a key resistance level, while the low of $160.08 serves as major support. Short-term momentum shows a mixed picture: the 1-month price change is +1.9%, while the 3-month change is +11.1%, suggesting deceleration from the blistering 6-month gain of 64.0%. This divergence—strong long-term trend but slowing short-term momentum—could signal a consolidation phase or a temporary pullback before the next leg higher. The stock's beta of 1.768 indicates it is 76.8% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning larger swings in both directions, which is critical for risk management. The 52-week high of $441.43 is the immediate resistance; a breakout above that level would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below the 52-week low of $160.08 would be a severe reversal. The recent price action shows a pullback from the June 29 high of $429.09 to $373.43, a decline of 13.0%, which could be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend.
Beta
1.77
1.77x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$160-$441
Price range past year
Annual Return
+127.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MTZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +9.0% | +2.0% |
| 3m | +6.5% | +10.6% |
| 6m | +75.7% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +127.2% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +69.0% | +10.2% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
MTZ Fundamental Analysis
MasTec's revenue trajectory is strongly growing, with Q4 2025 revenue of $3.94 billion, up 15.8% year-over-year from $3.40 billion in Q4 2024. This marks an acceleration from the 9.9% YoY growth in Q3 2025 ($3.97 billion vs. $3.25 billion) and a significant improvement from the 5.9% growth in Q2 2025 ($3.54 billion vs. $2.96 billion). The growth is driven by the Clean Energy and Infrastructure segment ($1.29 billion), Communications ($907 million), and Pipeline Infrastructure ($644 million), with clean energy being the largest contributor. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth, which supports a bullish investment case as the company capitalizes on infrastructure spending and renewable energy mandates. Profitability is improving but margins remain thin. Net income for Q4 2025 was $142.7 million, up from $74.7 million in Q4 2024, a 91% increase. Gross margin was 10.1% in Q4 2025, down from 12.8% in Q4 2024, indicating cost pressures. However, operating margin improved to 5.3% from 4.1% in the prior year quarter, and net margin rose to 3.6% from 2.2%. The company is profitable with a trailing net margin of 2.8%, which is typical for the engineering & construction industry. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86 and a current ratio of 1.32, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) was $207.6 million, and the company generated $372.7 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2025, up from $471.7 million in Q4 2024. ROE stands at 12.2%, reflecting decent returns on equity. The FCF yield is approximately 1.2% based on the current market cap, which is low but expected for a growth-oriented infrastructure company.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.9B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+15.77%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
10.08%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$207610000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is MTZ Overvalued?
Since MasTec has positive net income ($142.7 million in Q4 2025), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 42.5x, while the forward P/E is 31.7x, implying the market expects earnings growth to justify the current price. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests anticipated earnings expansion, which aligns with the company's growth trajectory. Compared to the industry average (Engineering & Construction), MasTec trades at a premium. The trailing P/E of 42.5x is significantly above the sector median of roughly 20x, representing a 112% premium. This premium is partially justified by MasTec's superior revenue growth (15.8% YoY vs. industry average of ~8%) and its exposure to high-growth segments like clean energy and communications. However, the premium is stretched, and any growth disappointment could lead to multiple compression. Historically, MasTec's trailing P/E has ranged from 14x to 230x over the past five years. The current 42.5x is above the 5-year median of approximately 25x, indicating the stock is trading at the higher end of its historical valuation band. This suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for continued growth and margin expansion. The PEG ratio of 0.29 (based on forward earnings growth) suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth rate, but this metric should be used cautiously given the cyclical nature of the business.
PE
42.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -46x~1958x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: MasTec's debt-to-equity of 0.86 indicates moderate leverage, and while interest coverage is adequate (operating income of $208M vs. interest expense of $44.6M in Q4 2025), a sustained high-interest-rate environment could pressure earnings. Gross margin compression from 12.8% to 10.1% YoY raises concerns about cost control and project profitability. The company's low FCF yield of 1.2% limits financial flexibility, and any significant project delays or cost overruns could strain liquidity. Revenue concentration in the clean energy segment (33% of Q4 2025 revenue) exposes the company to policy changes in renewable energy subsidies or tax credits.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's trailing P/E of 42.5x is a 112% premium to the industry median, making it vulnerable to valuation compression if growth expectations are not met. With a beta of 1.768, the stock is highly correlated to market movements, and a broad market downturn could amplify losses. Competitive pressures from larger infrastructure players could erode market share or compress margins. Regulatory risks include changes to renewable energy mandates or permitting delays that could slow project pipelines. The recent 13% pullback from the 52-week high of $441.43 highlights the stock's sensitivity to any negative news.
Worst-Case Scenario: A combination of slowing revenue growth (e.g., below 10%), further margin compression, and a broad market correction could trigger a sharp re-rating. In this scenario, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $160.08, representing a 57% decline from the current price of $373.43. This would imply a trailing P/E of approximately 18x, in line with the industry median, reflecting a complete unwinding of the growth premium. Historical max drawdown of -23.3% provides a more moderate downside reference, but the high beta suggests larger swings are possible.
FAQ
The primary risks are: (1) Valuation risk: trailing P/E of 42.5x leaves little room for error, and any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating. (2) Margin risk: gross margin declined from 12.8% to 10.1% YoY, indicating cost pressures that could persist. (3) Macro risk: with a beta of 1.768, the stock is highly sensitive to market downturns and rising interest rates. (4) Policy risk: the clean energy segment, which generated $1.29B in Q4 2025 revenue, is dependent on renewable energy subsidies and tax credits that could be altered. The most severe risk is a combination of slowing growth and margin compression, which could drive the stock down to its 52-week low of $160.08.
Over the next 12 months, we see three scenarios. The base case (50% probability) expects revenue growth of 10-12% and EPS of $20.89, with the stock trading between $370 and $441. The bull case (30% probability) assumes sustained 15%+ growth and margin expansion, pushing the stock above the 52-week high of $441.43 to a range of $441-$500. The bear case (20% probability) envisions growth deceleration below 8% and margin contraction, leading to a decline to $250-$320. The most likely scenario is the base case, supported by the strong backlog and secular tailwinds, but the stock's high beta means actual outcomes could vary significantly.
MasTec's valuation presents a mixed picture. On a trailing basis, the P/E of 42.5x is significantly above the industry median of ~20x, suggesting the stock is overvalued relative to historical earnings. However, on a forward basis, the P/E of 17.9x is slightly below the industry median, indicating the market expects substantial earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.29 further supports the view that the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate. The market is pricing in optimistic expectations for continued revenue acceleration and margin expansion. If the company delivers on these expectations, the current valuation is justified; if not, the stock could face multiple compression.
MasTec presents a compelling risk/reward for growth-oriented investors. The stock has strong momentum with 120.5% returns over the past year, accelerating revenue growth of 15.8% YoY, and a forward P/E of 17.9x that is below the industry average. The PEG ratio of 0.29 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth. However, the trailing P/E of 42.5x is elevated, and the stock's high beta of 1.768 means it can experience sharp drawdowns. For investors with a 12-month horizon and tolerance for volatility, MTZ is a good buy given the analyst consensus and growth trajectory. Conservative investors may prefer to wait for a pullback closer to $335 or for more evidence of margin expansion.
MasTec is better suited for long-term investment given its exposure to multi-year infrastructure trends in clean energy and communications. The company's revenue growth is accelerating, and its forward P/E of 17.9x is reasonable for a growth stock. However, the high beta of 1.768 and trailing P/E of 42.5x make it volatile in the short term, with potential drawdowns of 20% or more. Short-term traders could capitalize on momentum, but the stock's 13% pullback from its June 2025 high illustrates the risks. A minimum holding period of 12-18 months is recommended to allow the growth thesis to play out and to reduce the impact of short-term volatility.
