MasTec
MTZ
$266.26
-2.06%
MasTec, Inc. is a leading infrastructure construction company operating primarily in North America, providing engineering, building, installation, maintenance, and upgrade services across communications, oil and gas, utility, renewable energy, and other infrastructure sectors. The company holds a strong competitive position as a diversified E&C player with five reporting segments, including communications, clean energy and infrastructure, pipeline infrastructure, and power delivery, enabling it to capitalize on multiple secular growth trends. Currently, the investor narrative centers on MasTec's robust revenue growth driven by large-scale projects in clean energy and communications, alongside concerns about margin volatility and the impact of project timing on quarterly results. Recent attention has also focused on the stock's significant price swings, reflecting both optimism about long-term infrastructure spending and near-term execution risks.…
MTZ
MasTec
$266.26
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MTZ Today?
Based on the analysis, MasTec is rated a Buy. The strong buy consensus from 19 analysts, with an average target of $422, implies a 41.8% upside from the current price. The thesis is driven by robust revenue growth of 34.45% YoY, improving margins, and a forward PE of 23.83, which is reasonable for a company with a PEG of 0.29. The stock is well-positioned to benefit from secular infrastructure trends, making it an attractive growth investment.
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MTZ 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish on MasTec, driven by strong revenue growth, improving profitability, and a reasonable forward valuation. The company's exposure to secular infrastructure trends provides a solid growth backdrop. However, the high volatility and execution risks warrant a medium confidence level. The stance would be upgraded if the company demonstrates consistent margin expansion and cash flow generation, while a downgrade would occur if growth decelerates or margins deteriorate significantly.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on MasTec's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $422.00 and implied upside of +58.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$422.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+58.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$340 - $518
Analyst target range
The wide target spread indicates that analysts have divergent views on the company's future, likely due to the cyclical nature of the construction industry and the potential for project delays or cost overruns. However, the strong buy consensus and the fact that even the low target is above the current price suggest that the market sees significant upside potential. Investors should note that the stock's high beta and recent volatility could lead to further price swings, but the analyst community's confidence in the company's growth story is evident.
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Bulls vs Bears: MTZ Investment Factors
MasTec presents a compelling growth story with strong revenue momentum, a robust analyst consensus, and attractive forward valuation. However, the stock's high volatility, weak cash flow, and elevated trailing valuation introduce significant risks. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence due to the company's fundamental growth trajectory and analyst confidence, but the bear case highlights execution and valuation concerns. The key tension is whether MasTec can sustain its high growth and margin expansion to justify its premium valuation, or if project delays and cost overruns will lead to earnings disappointments and a re-rating lower.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 34.45% YoY to $3.83B, driven by robust demand in clean energy and communications. This growth rate significantly outpaces the broader industrials sector, indicating strong market positioning.
- Analyst Strong Buy Consensus: With a mean recommendation of 1.2 (Strong Buy) from 19 analysts and an average target price of $422, the stock implies ~42% upside from the current price of $297.59. Even the low target of $340 is above the current price, suggesting limited downside per analysts.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The forward PE of 23.83 is well below the trailing PE of 42.46, reflecting expected earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.29 indicates the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate, making it appealing for growth investors.
- Secular Growth Tailwinds: MasTec is positioned to benefit from multi-year infrastructure spending in clean energy, 5G communications, and grid modernization. The company's diversified segments reduce reliance on any single market, providing a stable growth platform.
Bearish
- High Valuation on Trailing Earnings: The trailing PE of 42.46 is significantly above the historical median of ~14-20, indicating the market is pricing in substantial future growth. Any earnings miss could lead to multiple compression and sharp downside.
- Extreme Volatility and Beta: With a beta of 1.837, the stock is 83.7% more volatile than the market. Recent price swings, including a 40.89% max drawdown and a 16.8% drop in the last month, highlight the risk of significant losses in adverse conditions.
- Weak Free Cash Flow: Q1 2026 free cash flow was just $2.09M, a dramatic decline from $292.5M in Q4 2025. This volatility in cash generation could constrain the company's ability to invest in growth or reduce debt, adding financial risk.
- Margin Volatility: Gross margin has fluctuated between 9.3% and 13.6% over recent quarters, reflecting project mix and execution risks. The current gross margin of 9.55% is near the low end, indicating potential pressure on profitability.
MTZ Technical Analysis
Key technical levels are defined by the 52-week low of $167.66 and the 52-week high of $441.43, with the current price of $297.59 sitting roughly midway between these extremes. A breakdown below the recent support near $258.63 could signal further downside toward the $200 level, while a breakout above resistance at $350-360 would indicate a potential recovery. The stock's beta of 1.837 indicates it is 83.7% more volatile than the market, meaning that its swings are amplified relative to the S&P 500, which is crucial for risk management. The high volatility, combined with the recent sharp decline, suggests that the stock is in a high-risk environment where technical signals should be weighted heavily in trading decisions.
Beta
1.84
1.84x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-40.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$171-$441
Price range past year
Annual Return
+53.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MTZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -25.5% | +2.5% |
| 3m | -30.3% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -6.2% | +11.1% |
| 1y | +53.3% | +20.5% |
| ytd | +17.0% | +12.3% |
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MTZ Fundamental Analysis
MasTec's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86, indicating moderate leverage, and a current ratio of 1.32, suggesting adequate short-term liquidity. The company generated free cash flow of $2.09 million in Q1 2026, a sharp decline from the $292.5 million in Q4 2025, reflecting heavy working capital investments and capital expenditures. ROE stands at 12.24%, which is respectable, while ROA is 5.28%, indicating efficient asset utilization. The company's ability to generate positive free cash flow, albeit volatile, and its manageable debt levels suggest it can fund growth internally, though the recent cash flow dip warrants monitoring.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.8B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+34.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
9.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$256714000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MTZ Overvalued?
Historically, MasTec's valuation has been volatile, with the PE ratio ranging from a low of 14.1 in Q3 2021 to a high of 224.4 in Q1 2025. The current trailing PE of 42.46 is above the median of the historical range, indicating that the stock is trading at a relatively high multiple compared to its own history. However, the forward PE of 23.83 is closer to the lower end of the historical range, suggesting that if the company meets earnings expectations, the valuation could normalize. The PB ratio of 5.19 is also elevated relative to historical levels, which were typically below 3.5, indicating that the market is pricing in strong future returns on equity.
PE
42.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 14x~147x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, MasTec carries moderate debt with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86, and interest expenses of $43.5M in Q1 2026 could pressure earnings if rates rise. The sharp decline in free cash flow from $292.5M in Q4 2025 to $2.09M in Q1 2026 signals potential working capital strain, which could limit investment capacity. Additionally, the company's net margin of 2.79% is thin, leaving little room for cost overruns or project delays. Revenue concentration in cyclical sectors like oil and gas and renewable energy adds earnings volatility, as seen in the wide quarterly EPS swings from $0.13 to $2.07 over the past year.
