National Oilwell Varco
NOV
$20.99
+1.11%
NOV Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells a wide range of equipment and components for the oil and gas industry, including rig equipment, downhole tools, drill pipe, and well casing, serving major integrated oil companies, national oil companies, independents, and drilling contractors. As a global leader in oilfield equipment and services, NOV operates in two reportable segments—energy products and services and energy equipment—with international markets contributing nearly two-thirds of annual revenue. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust recovery from cyclical lows, highlighted by a 59% one-year stock price surge, a 20% dividend increase announced in February 2026, and improving operational efficiency despite a challenging energy price environment. Attention is also focused on NOV's ability to sustain margin expansion and cash flow generation as it navigates the evolving energy transition landscape.…
NOV
National Oilwell Varco
$20.99
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NOV Today?
Based on the analysis, NOV is rated a 'Buy' with a thesis that the company is undervalued on a sales basis and poised for earnings recovery as oilfield activity stabilizes. The analyst consensus of 'Buy' with an average target of $22.24 supports this view, implying a 5.95% upside. The stock's strong momentum and dividend increase further reinforce the positive outlook.
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NOV 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral, reflecting a balanced risk-reward profile. NOV's valuation is not demanding, but the lack of revenue growth and recent earnings miss temper enthusiasm. The stock could perform well if oil prices hold and the company delivers on earnings estimates, but downside risks remain if the macro environment deteriorates. Upgrades to bullish would require evidence of accelerating revenue growth and consistent profitability, while downgrades to bearish would be triggered by a sustained decline in oil prices or further earnings disappointments.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on National Oilwell Varco's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $22.24 and implied upside of +5.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$22.24
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+5.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $26
Analyst target range
NOV is covered by 19 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating of 2.5 on a scale where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $22.24, which implies a 5.95% upside from the current price of $20.99. The distribution includes 10 Buy ratings, 7 Hold ratings, and 2 Sell ratings, indicating a moderately bullish sentiment. Recent actions show a mix: Stifel and TD Cowen maintain Buy ratings, while Goldman Sachs has a Sell, and Citigroup and BMO are Neutral, reflecting divergent views on the stock's near-term prospects.
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Bulls vs Bears: NOV Investment Factors
NOV presents a mixed picture: strong momentum, a solid balance sheet, and a shareholder-friendly dividend increase are offset by a recent net loss, stagnant revenue, and cyclical industry risks. The bull case is supported by valuation (low PS) and analyst consensus, while the bear case hinges on earnings volatility and limited growth. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull side due to the company's financial stability and attractive valuation, but the key tension is whether NOV can translate its operational efficiency into sustained earnings growth. If oil prices remain stable and drilling activity picks up, the stock could re-rate higher; otherwise, the recent loss may signal deeper issues.
Bullish
- Strong 1-Year Price Surge: NOV's stock has surged 59.02% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18.56% gain. This momentum reflects improving fundamentals and investor confidence in the company's recovery.
- 20% Dividend Increase: In February 2026, NOV announced a 20% increase in its regular quarterly dividend, signaling management's confidence in sustained cash flow generation. The current dividend yield stands at 3.27%, providing a solid income component.
- Attractive Valuation on Sales: With a trailing price-to-sales ratio of 0.66 and forward PS of 0.58, NOV trades at a modest discount to its sales, suggesting the market is not pricing in excessive growth expectations. This provides a margin of safety for investors.
- Healthy Balance Sheet: NOV maintains a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37 and a current ratio of 2.42, indicating strong liquidity and financial flexibility. This reduces bankruptcy risk and supports continued investment in growth initiatives.
Bearish
- Recent Net Loss in Q4 2025: NOV reported a net loss of $78 million in Q4 2025, with EPS of -$0.21, a sharp reversal from the $160 million profit in Q4 2024. This was driven by a $147 million income tax expense, raising concerns about earnings quality and volatility.
- Revenue Growth Stagnant: Revenue in Q4 2025 declined 1.34% year-over-year to $2.277 billion, and over the trailing quarters, revenue has been flat, fluctuating between $2.103 billion and $2.277 billion. This suggests limited top-line growth in a mature cyclical industry.
- High Trailing P/E Not Meaningful: The trailing P/E of 40.08 is elevated and not meaningful due to the recent loss, but it highlights that earnings are depressed. The forward P/E of 16.4 is more reasonable, but it relies on optimistic analyst estimates.
- Mixed Analyst Sentiment: Despite the consensus Buy, there are 2 Sell ratings and 7 Hold ratings, indicating divergent views. Goldman Sachs has a Sell rating, and Citigroup and BMO are Neutral, reflecting concerns about near-term headwinds.
NOV Technical Analysis
NOV is in a strong uptrend, with the stock price at $20.99 as of August 28, 2026, reflecting a 59.02% increase over the past year. The current price sits at 96.8% of its 52-week range (low of $12.29, high of $21.67), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, which suggests robust momentum but also potential overextension. The 1-year relative strength versus the S&P 500 is 40.46%, significantly outperforming the market, which gained 18.56% over the same period.
Beta
0.94
0.94x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-17.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$12-$22
Price range past year
Annual Return
+59.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NOV Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +10.1% | +3.0% |
| 3m | +5.2% | +1.4% |
| 6m | +3.6% | +13.1% |
| 1y | +59.0% | +19.3% |
| ytd | +27.9% | +12.8% |
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NOV Fundamental Analysis
NOV's revenue has been relatively stable, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting $2.277 billion, a slight year-over-year decline of 1.34% from $2.308 billion in Q4 2024. Over the trailing quarters, revenue has fluctuated between $2.103 billion (Q1 2025) and $2.277 billion (Q4 2025), showing a flat-to-modest growth trajectory. The company's growth is being driven by its energy equipment segment, while the services segment faces headwinds from lower drilling activity. This stability in revenue suggests a mature cyclical business, with growth dependent on oil and gas capital expenditure cycles.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.3B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-1.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
20.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$876000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NOV Overvalued?
Given that NOV reported a net loss of $78 million in the most recent quarter, the trailing P/E ratio of 40.08 is not meaningful; therefore, I selected the price-to-sales (PS) ratio as the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 0.66, while the forward PS ratio (based on estimated revenue of $10.062 billion) is approximately 0.58, implying a modest discount to sales. The gap between trailing and forward PS suggests the market expects revenue growth, but the low absolute PS indicates the stock is not richly valued on a sales basis.
PE
40.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~29x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include NOV's recent net loss of $78 million in Q4 2025, which was exacerbated by a $147 million income tax expense, leading to negative EPS. While the company has a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37 and a current ratio of 2.42, the loss highlights earnings volatility. Additionally, revenue has been flat, with a slight year-over-year decline of 1.34% in the latest quarter, indicating limited growth potential. The payout ratio of 131% suggests that dividends may not be fully covered by earnings, though free cash flow of $876 million TTM provides some cushion.
