Nucor
NUE
$256.29
+0.63%
Nucor Corporation is the largest U.S. steel producer, operating electric arc furnace (EAF) mini-mills that convert scrap into sheet, plate, structural, bar, and tubular steel, complemented by downstream steel products (joist, deck, rebar fabrication) and a raw materials segment supplying scrap and direct-reduced iron. Nucor is the archetypal domestic steel consolidator and low-cost EAF operator, distinguished by its scrap-based, flexible mill network, decentralized management culture, and a long record of returning cash through dividends and buybacks. The current investor narrative centers on a sharp cyclical earnings recovery: Q2 2026 revenue jumped 22.95% year over year to $10.40 billion with EPS of $5.05, and management's September guidance pointed to higher Q3 earnings on improved steel pricing. That recovery is being amplified by trade policy — the shift from the expired 10% global tariff to a Section 301 regime covering roughly 60 countries at 10%–12.5%, plus a 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazilian steel — which is curbing import competition and supporting domestic pricing power for Nucor and peers such as Cleveland-Cliffs and Steel Dynamics.…
NUE
Nucor
$256.29
Related headlines
NUE 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nucor's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $284.31 and implied upside of +10.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$284.31
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+10.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$226 - $310
Analyst target range
Coverage is solid, with 16 analysts and a consensus recommendation of "buy" (mean rating 1.76 on a 1-to-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $284.31, implying roughly 10.9% upside from the current $256.29, and consensus estimates call for EPS of $17.44 (range $15.84–$18.48) on average revenue of $39.56 billion (range $36.78–$41.39 billion). The consensus leans bullish but not aggressively so — the average target sits just above the 52-week high of $280.11, meaning analysts see modest further upside rather than a major re-rating from here.\n\nThe target range of $226.00 to $310.00 is wide — a spread of about 37% around the midpoint — signaling meaningful disagreement about the durability of the steel pricing recovery. The high target of $310 assumes continued tariff-driven pricing power, margin expansion toward prior-cycle levels, and multiple expansion on normalized earnings; the low target of $226 (about 11.8% below the current price) prices in margin compression and a fading of the pricing tailwind. Recent institutional actions are mixed but mostly constructive: Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, BMO Capital, Barclays, and B of A Securities maintain Overweight/Outperform/Buy ratings, UBS remains Neutral, and Freedom Broker downgraded from Buy to Hold on September 18, 2026 — the same day Wells Fargo reiterated Overweight. The pattern suggests analysts are comfortable with the recovery story but increasingly focused on valuation after the 93% one-year run, which argues for disciplined entry points rather than chasing the stock near its highs.
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Bulls vs Bears: NUE Investment Factors
The bull case currently has stronger evidence: the earnings trajectory ($1.64 to $3.23 to $5.05 EPS over three quarters), the tariff-supported pricing environment, a 0.34 debt-to-equity balance sheet, and a 12.23x forward PE all point to a genuine cyclical recovery with room to run. The bear case rests less on fundamentals than on positioning — a 93% one-year gain, a -2.90 point one-month relative strength, and margins still below prior peaks mean the easy money has been made and the stock is vulnerable to any pricing disappointment. The single most important tension is whether the tariff-driven steel pricing recovery proves durable enough to deliver the $17.44 consensus EPS; if it does, the 12.23x forward multiple is cheap, but if pricing rolls over, the 21.66x trailing PE and 10.07x EV/EBITDA offer little protection. Beta of 1.852 means this debate will be resolved with above-market volatility in either direction.
Bullish
- Earnings inflecting sharply quarter-over-quarter: EPS has climbed from $1.64 in Q4 2025 to $3.23 in Q1 2026 to $5.05 in Q2 2026, while net margin expanded from 4.92% to 7.82% to 11.12% over the same three quarters. Q2 revenue of $10.40 billion grew 22.95% year over year, and management's September guidance pointed to higher Q3 earnings on improved steel pricing, suggesting the recovery is broadening rather than a one-quarter spike.
- Tariff regime supports domestic pricing power: The shift from the expired 10% global tariff to a Section 301 regime covering roughly 60 countries at 10%-12.5%, plus a 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazilian steel, curbs import competition for Nucor's EAF mills. This policy backdrop is a structural tailwind for domestic steel spreads and underpins the pricing recovery embedded in consensus EPS of $17.44.
- Conservative balance sheet with strong liquidity: Debt-to-equity is just 0.34 and the current ratio is 2.94, with $2.478 billion of cash at Q2 2026. Q2 operating cash flow of $1.40 billion against $571 million of capex produced $829 million of free cash flow, funding $350 million of buybacks and $129 million of dividends in the same quarter.
- Forward valuation compresses to 12.2x: The trailing PE of 21.66x falls to a forward PE of 12.23x on consensus EPS of $17.44, a roughly 44% compression that reflects expected earnings normalization. Price-to-book of 1.80x sits near the low end of its 2021-2024 range of roughly 1.35x-2.67x, implying the market is not yet pricing peak-cycle profitability.
Bearish
- Stock already up 93% in one year: NUE has gained 93.19% over twelve months and 51.29% YTD, outperforming SPY by 77.66 and 39.36 percentage points respectively. At $256.29 the stock sits about 83.7% of the way through its 52-week range of $131.32-$280.11, meaning much of the recovery is already discounted and entry-point risk is elevated.
- Short-term momentum has stalled: The stock is down 1.68% over the past month while SPY rose 1.22%, producing a relative strength of -2.90 points. This high-level pause after a parabolic run, with the September dip to $233.75, suggests momentum leadership is fading even as the longer-term trend remains intact.
- Margins still well below prior cycle peaks: Q2 gross margin of 19.56% and net margin of 11.12% remain far below the 2021-2022 upcycle peaks of above 30% gross and above 20% net. The trailing twelve-month net margin of 5.37% and ROE of 8.33% show how much of the window is still weighed down by weaker prior quarters, leaving earnings highly sensitive to steel spreads.
- High beta amplifies downside: A beta of 1.852 means Nucor is roughly 85% more volatile than the S&P 500, so a 10% market decline implies roughly an 18.5% move in NUE. Combined with a 10.07x EV/EBITDA that leaves limited margin of safety, the stock offers little defensive cushion if steel pricing rolls over.
NUE Technical Analysis
Nucor is in a powerful, sustained uptrend: the stock is up 93.19% over the past year and 51.29% year to date, closing at $256.29 versus a 52-week range of $131.32 to $280.11 — roughly 83.7% of the way through that range and about 8.5% below the high. That positioning signals momentum leadership rather than deep value; the stock has already re-rated substantially and is consolidating near the upper end of its range rather than breaking out to fresh highs. Relative strength confirms the trend: NUE has outperformed SPY by 77.66 percentage points over one year and 39.36 points YTD, though the 1-month relative strength of -2.90 points shows the stock is now lagging a rising market.\n\nShort-term momentum has decelerated and diverged from the longer-term trend. The stock is down 1.68% over the past month even as it gained 8.32% over three months and 30.85% over six months, and the 1-month figure also lags SPY's +1.22%, producing the negative relative strength noted above. This looks like a high-level pause or mean-reversion after a parabolic run rather than a trend reversal — the October rebound from the late-September dip to $233.75 back to $256.29 shows buyers defending the $230s. The 18.43% maximum drawdown (from the $280.11 high to the $233.75 low) is modest relative to the 93% annual gain, consistent with orderly profit-taking; volume of roughly 1.12 million shares is unremarkable, and no RSI reading is provided in the dataset.\n\nKey technical levels are clear: resistance sits at the 52-week high of $280.11, roughly 9.3% above the current $256.29, while support clusters near the September low of $233.75 and, more fundamentally, the 52-week low of $131.32. A decisive break above $280 would confirm the uptrend's continuation and likely invite momentum and analyst-target upgrades, whereas a loss of $233.75 would signal a deeper correction toward the $220s (the June–July consolidation zone). Volatility is a critical risk-management input: beta of 1.852 means Nucor is roughly 85% more volatile than the S&P 500, so a 10% market move implies roughly an 18.5% move in NUE — position sizing should be scaled accordingly, and the 3.47 short ratio suggests short-sellers are not aggressively pressing the name.
Beta
1.85
1.85x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-18.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$134-$280
Price range past year
Annual Return
+93.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NUE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.7% | +0.2% |
| 3m | +8.3% | +2.9% |
| 6m | +30.8% | +8.4% |
| 1y | +93.2% | +14.9% |
| ytd | +51.3% | +11.9% |
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NUE Fundamental Analysis
Nucor's revenue trajectory has inflected sharply upward after a cyclical trough. Q2 2026 revenue of $10.40 billion grew 22.95% year over year versus $8.46 billion in Q2 2025, and the sequential progression tells the story: $7.69 billion in Q4 2025, $9.50 billion in Q1 2026, then $10.40 billion in Q2 2026. Segment data show sheet steel as the largest contributor at $2.79 billion, followed by bar at $1.69 billion, steel products at $988 million, structural at $853 million, plate at $703 million, raw materials at $674 million, tubular at $528 million, and rebar fabrication at $479 million — a diversified mix where sheet and bar together account for roughly 43% of disclosed segment revenue. The 22.95% growth rate, combined with management's September guidance for higher Q3 earnings on improved pricing, implies the recovery is broadening rather than a one-quarter spike.\n\nProfitability has expanded dramatically off the trough. Q2 2026 net income reached $1.156 billion (net margin 11.12%) with gross margin of 19.56% and operating margin of 15.67%, versus Q1 2026 net income of $743 million (7.82% margin, 15.81% gross margin) and Q4 2025's $378 million (4.92% margin, 11.21% gross margin). The quarterly EPS progression — $1.64 in Q4 2025, $3.23 in Q1 2026, $5.05 in Q2 2026 — shows operating leverage typical of EAF steelmaking, where incremental volume and pricing flow disproportionately to the bottom line. Still, current gross margins of 19.56% and net margins of 11.12% remain below the 2021–2022 upcycle peaks (gross margins above 30% and net margins above 20%), indicating room for further recovery but also that the company is not yet at mid-cycle peak profitability; the trailing twelve-month net margin of 5.37% and ROE of 8.33% reflect the weaker prior quarters still in the window.\n\nThe balance sheet is conservatively managed and cash generation is improving. Debt-to-equity is just 0.34, the current ratio is a strong 2.94, and cash stood at $2.478 billion at Q2 2026; Q2 operating cash flow was $1.40 billion against capital expenditures of $571 million, yielding free cash flow of $829 million (TTM FCF $1.583 billion). ROE of 8.33% and ROA of 7.32% are modest in absolute terms but are recovering from trough levels, and the company funds growth internally while still returning cash — $350 million of buybacks and $129 million of dividends in Q2 alone. The main caveat is capital intensity: capex has run $571–$954 million per quarter over the past year, and the dividend payout ratio of 29.36% with a 1.36% yield leaves ample coverage, but FCF will remain sensitive to the capex cycle and steel spreads.
Quarterly Revenue
$10.4B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+22.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
19.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NUE Overvalued?
Because Nucor is profitable (Q2 2026 net income of $1.156 billion), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The trailing PE of 21.66x compares with a forward PE of 12.23x — a roughly 44% compression that implies the market expects earnings to grow substantially, consistent with consensus EPS of $17.44 versus the depressed trailing figure (the reported EPS of $0.046 in the key metrics appears to be a data artifact inconsistent with quarterly EPS of $5.05 and is not used here). The gap between trailing and forward multiples is the single most important valuation signal: investors are paying a premium on today's earnings for a cyclical recovery that consensus expects to materialize over the next twelve months.\n\nOn peer and sector comparison, Nucor trades at a premium to the steel industry on most measures: PS of 1.16x, price-to-book of 1.80x, EV/EBITDA of 10.07x, and EV/sales of 1.76x, against a forward PE of 12.23x that is reasonable for a low-cost, tariff-protected domestic producer. The premium is justified by Nucor's structural advantages — EAF cost position, diversified product mix, net-cash-like balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.34), and consistent capital returns — but the 10.07x EV/EBITDA leaves less room for error than the 12.23x forward PE suggests, since EBITDA of $2.02 billion in Q2 annualizes to roughly $8 billion against a market cap of $37.6 billion. The negative PEG ratio of -1.95 reflects the trailing earnings trough and should be disregarded until earnings normalize.\n\nHistorically, Nucor's valuation sits in the middle-to-upper part of its own band. The PE ratio was 11.03x at Q2 2026, 13.35x at Q1 2026, and 24.86x at Q4 2025, while the PS ratio has ranged from 3.07x (Q1 2025) to 5.91x (Q1 2024) and now stands at 1.16x on the current share count — a level that reflects the sharp earnings recovery rather than multiple expansion. The stock's price-to-book of 1.80x is near the low end of its 2021–2024 range of roughly 1.35x–2.67x, suggesting the market is not yet pricing in peak-cycle profitability. Net-net, valuation looks fair-to-attractive if the recovery continues, but the 21.66x trailing PE and 10.07x EV/EBITDA offer limited margin of safety if steel pricing rolls over.
PE
21.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on cyclical earnings sensitivity and capital intensity. Gross margin of 19.56% and net margin of 11.12% in Q2 2026 remain well below the 2021-2022 peaks above 30% and 20%, so a modest steel price decline would compress profits disproportionately given EAF operating leverage. Capex has run $571-$954 million per quarter over the past year against TTM free cash flow of $1.583 billion, and the trailing twelve-month net margin of 5.37% with ROE of 8.33% shows how quickly profitability can erode in a downcycle. Revenue concentration adds risk: sheet steel at $2.79 billion and bar at $1.69 billion together account for roughly 43% of disclosed segment revenue, tying results heavily to construction and manufacturing demand.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression and policy dependence. At 21.66x trailing PE and 10.07x EV/EBITDA, Nucor trades at a premium to the steel industry, and the 12.23x forward PE depends entirely on consensus EPS of $17.44 materializing. The tariff support is policy-driven — the Section 301 regime covering roughly 60 countries at 10%-12.5% and the 25% Brazilian steel tariff could be modified or challenged, and peers such as Cleveland-Cliffs and Steel Dynamics are capturing the same tailwind, limiting Nucor's relative advantage. With a beta of 1.852, the stock is roughly 85% more volatile than the S&P 500, so a sector rotation away from cyclicals or a broader market drawdown would hit NUE nearly twice as hard; the -2.90 point one-month relative strength already hints at fading momentum leadership.
The worst-case scenario is a steel pricing rollover coinciding with tariff relief and a market de-rating of cyclicals. In that chain, consensus EPS of $17.44 would prove unreachable, the forward multiple would re-expand toward the trailing 21.66x on lower earnings, and the stock would retest support at the September low of $233.75 before probing the June-July consolidation in the $220s. The analyst low target of $226 implies roughly -11.8% from $256.29, while a full retracement toward the 52-week low of $131.32 would represent about -48.8% — an extreme but not unprecedented outcome for a high-beta steel name in a downcycle. A realistic adverse case is a decline to the $226-$234 zone (-9% to -12%), with the 18.43% maximum drawdown from $280.11 to $233.75 as the recent template for how quickly such a move can unfold.
