Nucor
NUE
$243.63
+1.31%
Nucor Corporation is a leading American steel manufacturer, producing a diverse range of steel products including sheet, bar, structural, and plate steel, primarily through electric arc furnaces (EAFs) that recycle scrap steel. As the largest steel producer in the United States, Nucor distinguishes itself through its vertically integrated operations, spanning raw materials to finished steel products, and its reputation as a low-cost, innovative producer. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strong positioning amid a robust domestic steel market, driven by durable tariffs and infrastructure spending, which has fueled record earnings and a significant stock rally. Recent news highlights the expiration of the 10% global tariff and its replacement with Section 301 tariffs, which are expected to support pricing power and benefit domestic producers like Nucor.…
NUE
Nucor
$243.63
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NUE Today?
Rating: Buy. Nucor is a high-quality steel producer with strong growth prospects, supported by tariffs and infrastructure spending. The analyst consensus is 'buy' with an average target of $282.81, implying 16.1% upside from the current price of $243.63.
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NUE 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model is bullish on Nucor, driven by strong revenue growth and favorable tariff environment. The forward PE suggests significant earnings growth, and analyst targets imply upside. However, the high beta and cyclicality warrant caution. The stance would be upgraded if steel prices continue to rise, and downgraded if they fall below $150 per ton.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nucor's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $282.81 and implied upside of +16.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$282.81
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+16.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$231 - $305
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $231.00 to a high of $305.00, with the average at $282.81. The high target of $305 implies a 25.2% upside, likely assuming continued strong steel pricing and volume growth, possibly driven by infrastructure spending and tariffs. The low target of $231 suggests a 5.2% downside, which could reflect concerns about a cyclical downturn or margin compression. The spread between high and low is $74, indicating moderate uncertainty. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of upgrades and reiterations, with Keybanc upgrading to Overweight and UBS downgrading to Neutral, suggesting some divergence in near-term outlook but overall bullish sentiment.
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Bulls vs Bears: NUE Investment Factors
Nucor presents a compelling bull case driven by accelerating revenue growth, durable tariff protection, and strong earnings expectations. The company's low-cost EAF model and healthy balance sheet provide a solid foundation. However, the bear case highlights cyclicality, high beta, and valuation concerns that could lead to significant downside in a downturn. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence, given the robust demand environment and policy support, but the key tension is the sustainability of steel prices. If steel prices remain elevated, Nucor's earnings could exceed expectations, but any normalization would likely trigger a sharp correction. The stock's high beta amplifies this risk, making it a high-reward but high-risk investment.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue surged 21.28% YoY to $9.496B, the highest in recent quarters, driven by robust steel demand and favorable pricing. This marks a strong recovery from the Q1 2025 trough of $7.83B, indicating a clear upward trajectory.
- Durable tariffs support pricing power: The expiration of the 10% global tariff and its replacement with Section 301 tariffs (10-12.5% on 60 countries) is expected to sustain elevated steel prices. This benefits domestic producers like Nucor, as seen in the sector-wide rally and Cleveland-Cliffs' doubled EBITDA guidance.
- Strong earnings growth expected: Forward PE of 12.73x vs trailing 21.66x implies a 41% earnings increase, reflecting market optimism. Analyst consensus EPS estimate for the next fiscal year is $17.31, up from current levels, supporting the growth narrative.
- Healthy balance sheet: Debt-to-equity is a conservative 0.34, and current ratio is 2.94, indicating strong liquidity. This financial stability allows Nucor to weather cyclical downturns and invest in growth opportunities.
Bearish
- Cyclicality risk in steel prices: Steel is highly cyclical; a downturn in global demand or oversupply could compress margins. Q4 2025 net margin was only 4.9%, down from Q1 2026's 7.8%, showing volatility in profitability.
- High beta amplifies market swings: Beta of 1.892 means the stock is nearly twice as volatile as the market. In a market correction, Nucor could fall significantly more than the S&P 500, as seen in the -18.43% max drawdown over the past year.
- Valuation premium to historical norms: Trailing PE of 21.66x is above the 5-year average for steel companies, suggesting the market is pricing in sustained high earnings. If steel prices normalize, the stock could face de-rating.
- Tariff policy uncertainty: While Section 301 tariffs are supportive, they are subject to political change. A shift in trade policy could remove the pricing tailwind, as seen with the expiration of the 10% global tariff.
NUE Technical Analysis
Nucor's stock is in a strong uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +70.07%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.48% over the same period. The current price of $243.63 sits at 70.4% of the 52-week range (low $131.32, high $280.11), indicating the stock is trading closer to its highs, reflecting robust momentum but also potential overextension. The 6-month change of +35.34% underscores the sustained bullish trend, though the recent pullback from the high suggests some profit-taking.
Beta
1.89
1.89x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-18.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$131-$280
Price range past year
Annual Return
+70.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NUE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +3.3% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +5.0% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +35.3% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +70.1% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +43.8% | +12.3% |
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NUE Fundamental Analysis
Nucor's revenue trajectory is robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $9.496 billion, a 21.28% YoY increase from $7.83 billion in Q1 2025. This growth is part of a multi-quarter trend: Q2 2025 revenue was $8.456 billion, Q3 2025 was $8.521 billion, and Q4 2025 was $7.687 billion, showing a steady recovery from the trough in Q1 2025. The growth is driven by strong demand across segments, with Sheet steel contributing $2.791 billion, Bar $1.689 billion, and Steel Products $988 million, reflecting broad-based strength. The company's revenue growth is accelerating, supported by favorable steel pricing and tariffs, which bodes well for the investment case.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.5B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+21.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
15.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$532000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NUE Overvalued?
Given Nucor's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 21.66x, while the forward PE is 12.73x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE implies an anticipated 41% increase in earnings, reflecting optimism about continued strong steel prices and demand. This is supported by the PEG ratio of -1.95, which is negative due to expected earnings growth, though the negative value is atypical and suggests caution in interpretation.
PE
21.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Nucor's earnings are highly sensitive to steel prices, which are cyclical. The Q1 2026 net margin of 7.8% is a recovery from Q4 2025's 4.9%, but such swings highlight earnings volatility. The company's debt-to-equity is low at 0.34, but its free cash flow of $532M TTM is modest relative to revenue, limiting flexibility in downturns. Revenue concentration in the U.S. market exposes it to domestic economic cycles, though this also insulates it from some global risks.