Nucor
NUE
$222.28
-1.94%
Nucor Corporation is a leading steel manufacturer in the United States, producing a diverse range of steel products including sheet, plate, structural, and bar steel, primarily through electric arc furnace (EAF) technology using scrap steel. As the largest EAF steel producer in North America, Nucor distinguishes itself with a vertically integrated model spanning steel mills, steel products, and raw materials segments, giving it a cost advantage and operational flexibility. The current investor narrative centers on the cyclical steel market's recovery, with Nucor benefiting from strong demand and pricing, though recent price volatility and geopolitical uncertainties have sparked debate about the sustainability of its earnings momentum.…
NUE
Nucor
$222.28
Related headlines
NUE 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nucor's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $288.96 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$288.96
4 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
4
covering this stock
Price Range
$178 - $289
Analyst target range
Nucor is covered by 4 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS average of $16.86 and forward P/E of 12.94x, the implied target is approximately $218.00, which is near the current price of $220.75, suggesting limited upside. The estimated EPS range is $15.77 to $17.76, implying a target range of roughly $204 to $230. The low target of $204 assumes margin compression or a cyclical downturn, while the high target of $230 reflects optimism about sustained demand. Recent ratings show a mix: Wells Fargo maintains Overweight, UBS downgraded from Buy to Neutral in January 2026, and Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equal Weight. This divergence indicates uncertainty about the steel cycle's direction. The wide EPS spread ($15.77 to $17.76) signals high uncertainty, consistent with the cyclical nature of the industry.
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NUE Technical Analysis
Nucor's stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +58.97%. The current price of $220.75 sits at 81.5% of its 52-week range ($131.32 to $270.90), indicating it is trading near the upper end but below the peak. This positioning suggests strong momentum but also potential overextension, as the stock has pulled back from its June 2026 highs near $266.35. The 52-week low of $131.32 provides a clear support level, while the high of $270.90 represents key resistance. With a beta of 1.922, Nucor is nearly twice as volatile as the S&P 500, amplifying both upside and downside risks for investors.
Beta
1.92
1.92x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-18.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$131-$271
Price range past year
Annual Return
+59.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NUE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -12.6% | +2.0% |
| 3m | +19.4% | +10.6% |
| 6m | +35.7% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +59.1% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +31.2% | +10.2% |
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NUE Fundamental Analysis
Nucor's revenue trajectory shows moderate growth, with Q4 2025 revenue of $7.687 billion, up 8.64% year-over-year from $7.076 billion in Q4 2024. However, the multi-quarter trend reveals deceleration: revenue peaked at $8.521 billion in Q3 2025 and has since declined sequentially. The steel mills segment, particularly sheet steel ($4.471 billion), drives the majority of revenue, while raw materials and steel products contribute significantly. The growth trend implies that while Nucor benefits from cyclical demand, the pace is slowing, which could pressure the investment case if the cycle turns. Profitability remains solid but compressed: Q4 2025 net income was $378 million, with a gross margin of 11.21%, down from 14.96% in Q2 2025. Operating margin fell to 6.87% from 10.86% in Q3 2025, reflecting cost pressures. Despite the decline, Nucor remains profitable with a net margin of 4.92%, though margins are below the industry average for steel producers, which typically hover around 10-15% during upcycles. The balance sheet is healthy: debt-to-equity ratio is 0.34, and the current ratio is 2.94, indicating ample liquidity. However, free cash flow was negative $188 million over the trailing twelve months, driven by heavy capital expenditures of $802 million in Q4 2025 alone. This suggests Nucor is investing heavily in growth, but the negative FCF could strain finances if cash generation does not improve. ROE stands at 8.33%, below historical averages, reflecting the cyclical trough in profitability.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.7B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+8.64%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
11.21%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-188000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NUE Overvalued?
Given Nucor's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 21.66x, while the forward P/E is 12.94x, implying the market expects earnings to rebound sharply. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests optimism about a cyclical recovery. Compared to the industry average P/E of approximately 15x (based on steel sector data), Nucor's trailing P/E of 21.66x represents a 44% premium, likely justified by its superior cost structure and market leadership. However, the forward P/E of 12.94x is below the industry average, indicating that the market may be pricing in a normalization of earnings. Historically, Nucor's P/E has ranged from 3.6x (2021 peak earnings) to 38.5x (Q1 2025 trough). The current trailing P/E of 21.66x is near the middle of this range, suggesting the stock is fairly valued relative to its own history, but not at extreme levels. The PEG ratio of -1.95 is negative due to declining earnings, which is a red flag for growth investors.
PE
21.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 3x~38x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
