ONEOK
OKE
$93.56
+0.04%
Oneok is a diversified midstream service provider specializing in natural gas gathering, processing, storage, and transportation, as well as natural gas liquids (NGL) transportation and fractionation, operating primarily in the midcontinent, Permian, and Rocky Mountain regions. As a key player in the oil & gas midstream sector, Oneok distinguishes itself through its integrated asset network connecting producers, refiners, and consumers across multiple energy value chains. The current investor narrative centers on robust volume growth and raised 2026 guidance, with the company reporting strong earnings growth and sustaining an attractive dividend yield near 4.7%, while also navigating a period of elevated capital expenditure and debt levels.…
OKE
ONEOK
$93.56
Related headlines
OKE 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ONEOK's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $95.76 and implied upside of +2.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$95.76
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+2.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$84 - $113
Analyst target range
Oneok is covered by 21 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating of 2.13 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $95.76, implying a modest 2.4% upside from the current price of $93.52. The distribution shows 10 Buy ratings, 7 Hold, and 4 Sell, indicating a generally bullish but cautious sentiment. Recent actions include Barclays maintaining Equal Weight, JP Morgan Neutral, Citigroup Buy, and Wells Fargo Overweight, with one downgrade from Scotiabank (Sector Outperform to Sector Perform) in April 2026. The target price range spans from $84.00 (low) to $113.00 (high). The high target of $113.00 assumes continued volume growth, successful execution of growth projects, and potential multiple expansion, representing a 20.8% upside. The low target of $84.00 implies a 10.2% downside, factoring in risks such as margin compression, higher interest expenses, or a slowdown in energy demand. The spread between high and low ($29) is about 31% of the average target, indicating moderate uncertainty. The consensus leans bullish, but the narrow upside to the average target suggests that much of the positive news is already priced in.
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Bulls vs Bears: OKE Investment Factors
Oneok presents a mixed picture: strong revenue growth and a high dividend yield are balanced by limited upside to analyst targets and margin compression. The bull case rests on continued volume growth and the stock's reasonable valuation (trailing P/E 13.5x), while the bear case highlights elevated debt, declining free cash flow, and a consensus that sees only 2.4% upside. The key tension is whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory and margin improvement to justify the current price, or if rising costs and capex will weigh on returns. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull case given the strong operational momentum and attractive yield, but the narrow upside to the average target suggests a cautious stance.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue of $9.618B grew 19.6% YoY, accelerating from 7.8% in Q4 2025. This robust top-line growth is driven by all three segments, with the Refined Products and Crude Oil segment being the largest contributor at $4.716B.
- Attractive Dividend Yield: Oneok offers a dividend yield of 4.7% with a payout ratio of 76.1%, supported by strong cash flows. The company raised 2026 guidance, indicating confidence in sustaining and potentially growing the dividend.
- Reasonable Valuation: Trailing P/E of 13.5x is below the 5-year average and near the lower end of its historical range (6.8x-23.9x). EV/EBITDA of 10.2x is in line with midstream peers, suggesting the stock is not overvalued.
- Raised 2026 Guidance: Management raised 2026 guidance following robust Q1 results, signaling strong volume growth and cash flow sustainability. This positive outlook supports the stock's recent rally and analyst optimism.
Bearish
- Limited Upside to Analyst Target: The average analyst target of $95.76 implies only 2.4% upside from the current price of $93.52. With 10 Buy, 7 Hold, and 4 Sell ratings, the consensus is cautious, suggesting much of the good news is already priced in.
- Declining Free Cash Flow: Q1 2026 free cash flow dropped to $70M from $275M in Q1 2025 due to higher capital expenditures of $864M. While TTM FCF is $2.242B, the quarterly decline raises concerns about cash flow sustainability amid elevated capex.
- Elevated Debt Levels: Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.46 is high, though typical for midstream. Interest expense of $439M in Q1 2026 consumes a significant portion of operating income ($1.428B), leaving less room for shareholder returns if rates stay high.
- Margin Compression: Operating margin declined to 14.8% in Q1 2026 from 15.7% in Q1 2025, while gross margin fell to 26.7% from 29.4% in Q4 2025. Rising costs are pressuring profitability despite revenue growth.
OKE Technical Analysis
Oneok is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 15.1% over the past year and currently trading at $93.52, representing 97.3% of its 52-week range ($64.02–$96.07). This positioning near the high end of the range suggests strong bullish momentum, though it also raises the risk of short-term overextension. The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 on a 1-year basis (15.1% vs. 18.4% for SPY), but its relative strength over the past year is slightly negative at -3.2%, indicating that the broader market has outpaced it. Short-term momentum is accelerating: the 1-month price change is +9.3% and the 3-month change is +12.0%, both significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 1-month and 3-month returns of 0.3% and 4.7%, respectively. This divergence—stronger short-term gains relative to the longer-term trend—suggests a recent catalyst-driven rally, possibly tied to the robust Q1 2026 earnings and raised guidance. The stock's beta of 0.707 indicates it is about 30% less volatile than the overall market, making it a relatively defensive holding within the energy sector. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $64.02, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $96.07. A breakout above $96.07 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $64.02 would indicate a bearish reversal. The current price near the high end of the range suggests that a breakout attempt is imminent, but failure to clear resistance could lead to a pullback toward the $85–$90 area.
Beta
0.71
0.71x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$64-$96
Price range past year
Annual Return
+12.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OKE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +10.0% | -0.6% |
| 3m | +10.5% | +5.4% |
| 6m | +23.4% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +12.3% | +18.3% |
| ytd | +25.9% | +8.8% |
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OKE Fundamental Analysis
Oneok's revenue trajectory is robustly growing, with Q1 2026 revenue of $9.618 billion, up 19.6% year-over-year from $8.043 billion in Q1 2025. This marks an acceleration from the 7.8% YoY growth seen in Q4 2025 ($9.065 billion vs. $7.000 billion in Q4 2024). The growth is driven by all three segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing ($1.997B), Natural Gas Liquids ($3.646B), and Refined Products and Crude Oil ($4.716B), with the latter being the largest contributor. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent sequential revenue increases from $7.887B in Q2 2025 to $9.618B in Q1 2026, indicating strong operational momentum. The company is profitable, with Q1 2026 net income of $774 million and a gross margin of 26.7%. Net margin improved to 8.0% in Q1 2026 from 7.9% in Q1 2025, while operating margin was 14.8% in Q1 2026, down from 15.7% in Q1 2025, reflecting some margin compression due to higher costs. However, the trailing twelve-month net income of $3.533 billion (sum of last four quarters) shows solid profitability. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.46, which is elevated but typical for midstream companies with significant infrastructure investments. Free cash flow (FCF) was $70 million in Q1 2026, down from $275 million in Q1 2025, due to higher capital expenditures of $864 million. However, trailing twelve-month FCF is $2.242 billion, providing a FCF yield of approximately 4.8% based on the current market cap of $46.3 billion. Return on equity (ROE) is 15.1%, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital. The current ratio of 0.71 suggests some liquidity risk, but the strong operating cash flow of $934 million in Q1 2026 provides adequate coverage for near-term obligations.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.6B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+19.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
26.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is OKE Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 13.5x, while the forward P/E is 15.1x, based on estimated EPS of $7.52. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests the market expects earnings to grow modestly, as the forward multiple is slightly higher. Compared to the industry average (not provided), Oneok's P/E of 13.5x appears reasonable for a midstream company with stable cash flows. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.2x is also in line with midstream peers. Historically, Oneok's trailing P/E has ranged from roughly 6.8x (Q1 2023) to 23.9x (Q1 2025). The current 13.5x is near the lower end of its historical range, suggesting the stock is not overvalued relative to its own history. The P/B ratio of 2.06 is below the 5-year average of around 3.0, indicating potential value. The PEG ratio of 2.93 suggests the stock is priced for moderate growth, but the earnings growth rate implied by the forward P/E is modest. Overall, Oneok appears fairly valued with a slight discount to its historical multiples, which may appeal to value-oriented investors.
PE
13.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 12x~20x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Oneok's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.46 is elevated, and interest expense of $439M in Q1 2026 consumed 30.7% of operating income. Free cash flow dropped sharply to $70M in Q1 2026 from $275M a year earlier due to $864M in capex, raising concerns about cash flow coverage of the dividend (payout ratio 76.1%). The current ratio of 0.71 indicates potential liquidity stress, though strong operating cash flow of $934M provides some buffer. Margin compression is evident: operating margin fell from 15.7% to 14.8% YoY, and gross margin declined sequentially from 29.4% to 26.7%.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock trades near its 52-week high of $96.07, leaving limited upside to the average analyst target of $95.76 (2.4% upside). With a beta of 0.707, Oneok is less volatile than the market but still sensitive to energy price fluctuations and interest rate changes. The midstream sector faces regulatory risks around pipeline approvals and environmental policies. Recent news highlights robust earnings, but any slowdown in natural gas demand or a shift to renewables could pressure volumes. The short ratio of 7.16 days suggests moderate bearish sentiment.
Worst-Case Scenario: A combination of falling natural gas prices, rising interest rates, and project delays could lead to revenue deceleration and margin erosion. If the company fails to generate sufficient free cash flow to cover capex and dividends, the stock could fall to the 52-week low of $64.02, representing a 31.5% decline from the current price of $93.52. This scenario would likely be accompanied by analyst downgrades and multiple compression, with the trailing P/E potentially contracting to 10x or lower.
