Osisko Mining
OSK
$146.72
+0.81%
Oshkosh Corp. is a leading manufacturer of access equipment, specialty vehicles, and military trucks, serving diverse end markets including construction, firefighting, refuse collection, aviation, and defense. It holds dominant market positions, being the global leader in aerial work platforms through its JLG brand and a top provider of military and postal vehicles. The current investor narrative centers on a sharp profit decline and cash burn reported in its latest quarter, which triggered a significant stock sell-off and raised concerns about operational execution, despite the company maintaining its full-year guidance.…
OSK
Osisko Mining
$146.72
Related headlines
OSK 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Osisko Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $163.01 and implied upside of +11.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$163.01
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+11.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$138 - $197
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 17 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 1.94 on a 1-5 scale). The average target price is $163.01, implying approximately 12.0% upside from the current price of $145.54. The distribution leans bullish, with recent actions from Truist Securities (Buy), Baird (Outperform), and UBS (Buy) reinforcing positive sentiment, though Citigroup downgraded to Neutral in April 2026. The target range spans from a low of $138.00 to a high of $197.00. The high target of $197 implies 35.4% upside and likely assumes a successful turnaround with margin recovery and revenue acceleration. The low target of $138 suggests a 5.2% downside, pricing in continued operational challenges or a recessionary impact. The wide spread ($59) indicates high uncertainty among analysts, reflecting the conflicting signals of a strong long-term business model versus near-term execution issues.
Drowning in data?
Find the real signal!
Bulls vs Bears: OSK Investment Factors
Oshkosh presents a classic value trap versus turnaround debate. The bull case rests on a cheap forward P/E of 10.4x, strong analyst support, and dominant market positions that should drive a recovery. The bear case is anchored by a 61.6% profit collapse, revenue stagnation, and negative free cash flow in the latest quarter. Currently, the bearish evidence is more immediate and tangible, as the Q1 earnings miss and cash burn are concrete red flags. However, the low valuation and maintained full-year guidance suggest the market may be overly pessimistic. The single most important tension is whether the Q1 margin compression is a temporary blip or the start of a structural decline—resolution of this will determine the stock's trajectory.
Bullish
- Attractive Forward Valuation: With a forward P/E of 10.4x, Oshkosh trades at a discount to the industry median of ~15x, implying a 31% discount. This low multiple suggests the market is pricing in a significant earnings recovery, which could provide upside if the company executes.
- Strong Analyst Consensus: 17 analysts rate the stock a Buy (mean 1.94/5) with an average target of $163.01, implying 12% upside from $145.54. The high target of $197 suggests 35% potential upside if the turnaround materializes.
- Dominant Market Positions: Oshkosh is the global leader in aerial work platforms (JLG) and a top provider of military and postal vehicles. These entrenched positions provide pricing power and recurring demand from government and infrastructure spending.
- Healthy Long-Term Cash Flow: Despite a negative free cash flow quarter (-$190.6M), trailing twelve-month FCF stands at $848.5M, indicating the business generates substantial cash over a full cycle. The dividend yield of 1.6% is supported by a 20% payout ratio.
Bearish
- Sharp Profit Decline in Q1: Net income plunged 61.6% YoY to $43.1M, with net margin collapsing from 4.85% to 1.86%. Gross margin contracted to 12.84% from 17.29%, signaling severe cost pressures or pricing issues.
- Revenue Growth Stagnation: Q1 revenue was essentially flat at $2.318B (+0.2% YoY), down from 3.8% growth in Q4 2025 and 18.4% in Q2 2025. This deceleration raises concerns about demand in key end markets like construction and vocational.
- Negative Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow turned negative $190.6M in Q1 2026, a sharp reversal from positive $526.2M in Q4 2025. Operating cash flow was -$161M, indicating potential working capital strain or operational inefficiency.
- Underperformance vs Market: The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by 13.5% over 6 months and 5.1% over 3 months. With a beta of 1.23, the stock is more volatile, amplifying downside in risk-off environments.
OSK Technical Analysis
The stock is in a recovery phase from a significant downtrend, with a 1-year price change of +19.2% but still trading 19.4% below its 52-week high of $180.49. The current price of $145.54 sits at 28.8% of the 52-week range (from low $116.77 to high $180.49), indicating it is closer to the low end, which could suggest a value opportunity or lingering bearish sentiment. Short-term momentum shows a 1-month change of +6.5% and a 3-month change of +1.2%, indicating a recent bounce but still weak relative to the longer-term trend. The 1-month gain contrasts with the 6-month decline of -4.4%, suggesting a potential short-term reversal or mean reversion attempt, though the relative strength versus SPY is negative over 3 months (-5.1%) and 6 months (-13.5%), confirming underperformance. The 52-week low of $116.77 provides key support, while the 52-week high of $180.49 is a major resistance level. A breakout above $180.49 would signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $116.77 could indicate further downside. With a beta of 1.23, the stock is 23% more volatile than the market, implying higher risk and potential for larger swings.
Beta
1.23
1.23x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-33.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$117-$180
Price range past year
Annual Return
+19.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OSK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +6.2% | +0.1% |
| 3m | -0.8% | +5.7% |
| 6m | -3.6% | +8.5% |
| 1y | +19.1% | +20.3% |
| ytd | +11.0% | +10.1% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
OSK Fundamental Analysis
Revenue in the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) was $2.318 billion, essentially flat year-over-year with a growth rate of 0.2%, down from the 3.8% growth seen in Q4 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows deceleration from 18.4% growth in Q2 2025 to near stagnation, with the Access Equipment segment contributing $943 million and Vocational $825 million. This stagnation raises concerns about demand softening in key end markets. Net income plummeted 61.6% year-over-year to $43.1 million, with net margin contracting to 1.86% from 4.85% in the prior-year quarter. Gross margin also compressed sharply to 12.84% from 17.29% a year ago, indicating significant cost pressures or pricing challenges. The company remains profitable but with deteriorating profitability trends. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34, which is moderate, and a current ratio of 1.94, indicating adequate liquidity. However, free cash flow was negative $190.6 million in Q1 2026, a sharp reversal from positive $526.2 million in Q4 2025, driven by negative operating cash flow of -$161 million. This cash burn raises concerns about the company's ability to fund operations internally, though the trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $848.5 million remains healthy.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.3B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
12.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$848500000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is OSK Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 12.5x, while the forward PE is 10.4x, indicating the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests an anticipated earnings recovery. Compared to the industry average (Auto - Manufacturers), Oshkosh's trailing PE of 12.5x is at a discount to the sector median of approximately 15x, implying a 17% discount. This discount may be justified by the recent earnings decline and revenue stagnation, but the forward PE of 10.4x suggests the market is pricing in a rebound. Historically, the trailing PE has ranged from 8.1x to 53.3x over the past five years. The current 12.5x is near the lower end of that range, close to the 10-year median of around 14x, suggesting the stock is not excessively cheap but also not overvalued relative to its own history. The PB ratio of 1.78x is below the 5-year average of 2.0x, further supporting a potentially undervalued stance.
PE
12.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 8x~20x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: The most pressing risk is the severe margin compression—gross margin fell from 17.29% to 12.84% YoY, and net margin dropped from 4.85% to 1.86%. This suggests cost inflation, pricing pressure, or unfavorable mix. The negative free cash flow of -$190.6M in Q1 is a major concern, especially after a strong $526.2M in Q4, indicating potential working capital issues or operational disruption. Debt-to-equity of 0.34 is manageable, but the cash burn raises questions about liquidity if the downturn persists. Revenue concentration in cyclical end markets (construction, defense) adds vulnerability to economic slowdowns.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 1.23 implies 23% higher volatility than the market, making it sensitive to macro shocks. The 6-month relative strength of -13.5% versus SPY shows persistent underperformance, which could lead to further selling if momentum traders exit. Competitive risks include potential share loss in access equipment to Chinese manufacturers or pricing pressure from large customers. The wide analyst target range ($138-$197) reflects high uncertainty, and a downgrade from Citigroup to Neutral in April 2026 signals some analyst caution. Regulatory risks include defense budget cuts or changes in postal vehicle procurement.
Worst-Case Scenario: If the margin compression persists due to structural cost issues or demand softens further, earnings could disappoint again. The stock could retest its 52-week low of $116.77, representing a 19.8% decline from the current price of $145.54. In a severe recession, the stock could fall to the analyst low target of $138 (5.2% downside) or even below the 52-week low, potentially losing 30% or more. The historical max drawdown of -33.06% suggests a realistic worst-case loss of about 33% from current levels, or roughly $97.50 per share.
