Osisko Mining
OSK
$127.02
-1.31%
Oshkosh Corp. is a North American industrial manufacturer of access equipment (JLG aerial work platforms), vocational specialty vehicles (Pierce fire apparatus, refuse and recycling bodies, airport rescue vehicles), and military and postal transport trucks, serving construction, municipal, defense, and aviation end markets. It is typically the market share leader or No. 2 player in each of its core North American niches and the global leader in aerial work platforms, giving it a defensible brand-and-scale position rather than a disruptive one. The current investor debate centers on operational execution after a sharp profit and cash-flow deterioration in the first half of 2026 — Q1 net income fell to $43.1 million from $112.2 million a year earlier, and the stock crashed following a reported ~60% drop in GAAP profits and negative free cash flow despite maintained full-year guidance. With shares down roughly 7% over twelve months while the S&P 500 gained 15.5%, the narrative has shifted from cyclical recovery to questions about margin durability, working-capital discipline, and whether the access-equipment cycle has peaked.…
OSK
Osisko Mining
$127.02
Related headlines
OSK 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Osisko Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $163.48 and implied upside of +28.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$163.48
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+28.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$132 - $197
Analyst target range
Coverage is solid, with 17 analysts and a consensus recommendation of "buy" (mean rating 1.94 on a 1-to-5 scale where 1 is a strong buy). The average target price of $163.48 implies roughly 28.7% upside from the current $127.02, and even the lowest target of $132.00 sits about 3.9% above the current price — meaning the entire published range is above the market. That is a strongly bullish consensus relative to where the stock is trading, and it suggests analysts view the recent selloff as overdone relative to fundamentals.
The target range of $132.00 to $197.00 is wide — a spread of $65, or about 51% of the current price — which signals genuine disagreement about the earnings trajectory. The high target of $197.00 (55% above the current price) likely assumes margin recovery toward the 2025 gross-margin levels of ~17.5-19.2%, successful execution on the access-equipment cycle, and multiple re-rating toward the mid-teens; the low target of $132.00 prices in continued margin compression and a flat-to-down earnings year. Institutional ratings show a stable-to-mixed pattern: Evercore ISI, Baird, Barclays, DA Davidson, and Truist remain constructive (Outperform/Buy/Overweight), while JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley stay Neutral/Equal Weight, and there have been no recent upgrades — a sign that analysts are holding their views pending evidence of operational stabilization rather than turning more positive.
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Bulls vs Bears: OSK Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence: margins have compressed for two consecutive quarters, Q1 free cash flow was deeply negative, and the stock is in an accelerating downtrend with -22.2 points of one-year relative underperformance. The bull case rests on valuation and the balance sheet — 9.05x forward earnings, 7.71x EV/EBITDA, a 14.2% FCF yield, and a 28.7% average analyst upside — which suggests the market has priced in substantial distress. The single most important tension is whether the gross-margin decline (19.20% to 16.48% year over year) is cyclical/mix-driven and reversible, or structural; resolution of that question in either direction would move the stock far more than any other factor.
Bullish
- Deep discount to industrial peers: OSK trades at 12.46x trailing and 9.05x forward earnings, 0.77x sales, and 7.71x EV/EBITDA — roughly half the low-to-mid-teens EV/EBITDA typical of diversified machinery franchises. The 27% trailing-to-forward PE gap implies the market is pricing in earnings growth it is not yet paying for.
- Analyst consensus uniformly above market: All 17 analysts carry targets above the $127.02 price: the low of $132.00 is 3.9% higher, the average of $163.48 implies 28.7% upside, and the high of $197.00 implies 55%. A consensus rating of 1.94 ('buy') with no target below the current price signals the selloff is viewed as overdone.
- Balance sheet and cash generation intact: Debt-to-equity of 0.34, current ratio of 1.94, and $403.6 million of cash contrast with the distress implied by the price. Trailing free cash flow of $1.149 billion equates to a ~14.2% FCF yield on the $8.06 billion market cap, and Q2 2026 alone generated $349.1 million of FCF.
- Revenue still growing at mid-single digits: Q2 2026 revenue of $2.915 billion rose 6.7% year over year, with Access Equipment at $1.374 billion (47% of segment total) and Vocational at $967 million. Top-line resilience is inconsistent with a business in structural decline.
Bearish
- Profit collapse and negative cash flow: Q1 2026 net income fell to $43.1 million (1.86% net margin) from $112.2 million (4.85%), with gross margin of just 13.46% and operating cash flow of -$161 million. The reported ~60% GAAP profit drop and cash burn triggered the May crash and directly undermine confidence in execution.
- Margin compression is structural, not one-off: Q2 2026 gross margin fell to 16.48% from 19.20% and operating margin to 8.34% from 10.89% a year earlier — a ~270 basis point gross-margin decline. Q1's 13.46% gross margin was the weakest in the dataset, pointing to pricing, mix, or cost issues rather than a timing quirk.
- Persistent downtrend and severe underperformance: OSK is down 6.70% over one year versus SPY's +15.53% (a -22.2 point relative-strength gap), down 12.42% in the past month versus SPY's +1.22%, and sits 29.6% below its 52-week high at the 16th percentile of its range. Lower highs at $157.48, $146.61, and $133.85 confirm distribution.
- Working-capital volatility is a real execution risk: Q1 2026 saw a $283.8 million working-capital outflow that reversed in Q2, making cash generation lumpy and seasonal. With Q1 FCF of -$190.6 million despite $35.4 million of dividends and $91.6 million of buybacks in Q2, capital returns depend on H2 cash conversion.
OSK Technical Analysis
OSK is in a sustained, broad downtrend: the stock is down 6.70% over the past year and sits at $127.02, only 16.4% above its 52-week low of $116.77 and 29.6% below its 52-week high of $180.49 — roughly the 16th percentile of its 52-week range. That positioning near the bottom of the band, combined with a maximum drawdown of -33.06%, indicates persistent distribution rather than a healthy pullback, and the price is now testing the lower third of the range where value buyers historically step in but where breakdown risk is also highest. Relative strength confirms the weakness: OSK has lagged SPY by 22.2 percentage points over one year and 15.9 points year-to-date.
Short-term momentum is deteriorating and diverging negatively from an already weak long-term trend. The stock is down 12.42% over the past month versus a 1.22% gain for SPY (a -13.64 point relative-strength gap), down 11.58% over three months, and down 14.10% over six months, meaning the decline is accelerating rather than stabilizing. The sequence of lower highs — $157.48 in late August, $146.61 in mid-September, $133.85 in early October — with the latest close at $127.02 signals a fresh leg down, and the 1-month underperformance being worse than the 3-month figure argues against a simple mean-reversion bounce. Volume of roughly 928,000 shares and a short ratio of 3.33 days suggest moderate but not extreme bearish positioning.
Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $116.77, about 8.1% below the current price, while resistance is anchored at the 52-week high of $180.49, with intermediate supply near $146-$157 where the September and August highs formed. A decisive break below $116.77 would confirm a new leg of the downtrend and likely trigger momentum-driven selling, whereas reclaiming $146 would be the first evidence of a trend repair. With a beta of 1.26, OSK is roughly 26% more volatile than the market, so position sizing should account for amplified drawdowns — the -33.06% max drawdown is consistent with that leverage to the industrial cycle.
Beta
1.26
1.26x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-33.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$117-$180
Price range past year
Annual Return
-6.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OSK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -12.4% | +0.2% |
| 3m | -11.6% | +2.9% |
| 6m | -14.1% | +8.4% |
| 1y | -6.7% | +14.9% |
| ytd | -3.9% | +11.9% |
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OSK Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing but at a modest pace and with an uneven cadence. Q2 2026 revenue of $2.915 billion rose 6.7% year over year from $2.732 billion, and the trailing four quarters total roughly $10.4 billion, but the sequential path has been choppy: $2.318 billion in Q1 2026, $2.688 billion in Q4 2025, and $2.688 billion in Q3 2025. Segment data for the latest period shows Access Equipment at $1.374 billion (47% of the disclosed total), Vocational at $967 million (33%), and Corporate/Other at $38 million, meaning the cyclical aerial-work-platform business remains the swing factor for growth. The 6.7% top-line growth is respectable for a mature industrial, but it is not enough to offset the margin and cash-flow deterioration that is driving the stock's de-rating.
Profitability has compressed sharply. Q2 2026 net income was $183.2 million on a 6.28% net margin, down from $204.8 million and a 7.50% net margin in Q2 2025, while gross margin fell to 16.48% from 19.20% a year earlier and operating margin slipped to 8.34% from 10.89%. The Q1 2026 quarter was the real shock: net income of $43.1 million (1.86% net margin) versus $112.2 million (4.85%) a year prior, with gross margin of just 13.46% and operating margin of 3.54%. The company remains solidly profitable — trailing net margin of 6.21% and operating margin of 9.07% are within normal ranges for diversified machinery — but the direction of travel is negative, and the ~270 basis point year-over-year gross-margin decline points to pricing pressure, unfavorable mix, or cost inflation rather than a one-off.
The balance sheet is the strongest part of the story. Debt-to-equity is a conservative 0.34, the current ratio is a healthy 1.94, and trailing free cash flow is $1.149 billion, implying an FCF yield of roughly 14.2% on the $8.06 billion market cap. However, cash generation is highly seasonal and lumpy: Q1 2026 operating cash flow was -$161 million and FCF -$190.6 million, versus +$374.3 million of operating cash flow and +$349.1 million of FCF in Q2 2026, and the company still returned cash via $35.4 million of dividends and $91.6 million of buybacks in Q2. ROE of 14.28% and ROA of 5.01% are respectable, and with $403.6 million of cash at quarter-end the company can fund operations internally — but the working-capital swings (a $283.8 million outflow in Q1, reversed in Q2) are a genuine execution risk that investors are now pricing.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.9B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
16.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is OSK Overvalued?
Because Oshkosh is profitable (Q2 2026 net income of $183.2 million), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at 12.46x trailing earnings but only 9.05x forward earnings, a 27% discount that implies the market expects earnings to grow meaningfully — consistent with the consensus forward EPS estimate of $16.40 versus the trailing figure. The gap is wide enough to be a warning as much as an opportunity: the market is not paying for that growth, which suggests skepticism about the durability of the earnings recovery.
On relative valuation, OSK screens cheap across the board: PS of 0.77x, EV/Sales of 0.815x, EV/EBITDA of 7.71x, and P/B of 1.78x, all well below what diversified industrial machinery peers typically command (EV/EBITDA in the low-to-mid teens and PS above 1x for quality franchises). The 12.46x trailing PE versus a sector that generally trades in the high teens represents a meaningful discount, and the 7.71x EV/EBITDA is roughly half the multiple of a typical industrial. That discount is partly justified by the margin compression and negative Q1 free cash flow, but the 14.2% FCF yield and 1.94 current ratio suggest the market is pricing in more distress than the balance sheet warrants.
Historically, OSK's own PE has ranged from roughly 8x to 15x over the past several years, with the current 12.46x trailing multiple sitting in the middle-to-upper portion of that band even as the price sits near 52-week lows — a function of falling earnings rather than a rising multiple. The PS ratio of 0.77x, by contrast, is near the low end of its historical range (which has run from roughly 2.4x to 4.2x on a quarterly basis), reflecting the revenue base holding up while the multiple compresses. Net-net, the stock is cheap on cash flow and sales but not statistically cheap on earnings, and the PEG ratio of -4.18 is not meaningful given the negative growth denominator.
PE
12.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 8x~20x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on margin durability and cash conversion. Gross margin fell from 19.20% in Q2 2025 to 16.48% in Q2 2026, and Q1 2026 gross margin of 13.46% produced net income of only $43.1 million versus $112.2 million a year earlier. Free cash flow swung from -$190.6 million in Q1 2026 to +$349.1 million in Q2, driven by a $283.8 million working-capital outflow that reversed — meaning annual cash generation depends heavily on second-half collections. Revenue concentration adds risk: Access Equipment is 47% of the disclosed segment total ($1.374 billion of $2.915 billion), so an aerial-work-platform downcycle would hit results disproportionately. Interest expense of roughly $30 million per quarter is manageable against a 0.34 debt-to-equity ratio, but the 6.7% revenue growth is not fast enough to offset further margin erosion.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression and cyclical exposure. Even after the decline, the trailing PE of 12.46x sits in the middle-to-upper portion of its historical 8x-15x band because earnings are falling, so the stock is cheap on sales (0.77x PS) and cash flow but not statistically cheap on earnings. With a beta of 1.26, OSK is 26% more volatile than the market, and the -22.2 point one-year relative-strength gap versus SPY shows capital rotating away from cyclical industrials. The May 2026 crash on the ~60% GAAP profit drop and negative free cash flow is the clearest recent evidence of how quickly sentiment can deteriorate; JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley remain Neutral/Equal Weight with no recent upgrades, indicating analysts are waiting for operational proof rather than turning positive.
The worst-case scenario is a continued access-equipment slowdown combined with a failure to restore gross margin, producing a second consecutive year of negative first-half free cash flow and forcing guidance cuts. In that chain, the stock would likely retest and break its 52-week low of $116.77 — about 8.1% below the current $127.02 — and a momentum-driven overshoot toward the $100-$110 area would imply a 13%-21% loss from here. The historical maximum drawdown of -33.06% shows what a full cyclical de-rating looks like; applied from the current price that would imply roughly $85, though the analyst low target of $132.00 caps the near-term fundamental downside case at approximately flat. Realistically, investors should underwrite a -8% to -20% downside to the $102-$117 zone if margins fail to stabilize.
