Sherwin-Williams
SHW
$320.24
+0.93%
The Sherwin-Williams Company is the largest global manufacturer of paints and coatings, operating across three primary segments: the Paint Stores Group (company-owned retail), the Consumer Brands Group (sales through big-box retailers), and the Performance Coatings Group (specialized industrial applications). As a dominant market leader with an extensive network of over 4,800 stores, the company's competitive identity is built on its vertical integration, strong brand portfolio, and direct-to-professional distribution model. The current investor narrative centers on the company's resilience as a dividend aristocrat, having recently declared its 47th consecutive annual dividend increase, while debates focus on its ability to navigate potential cyclical headwinds in the housing and industrial markets and sustain growth against a backdrop of moderating revenue momentum.…
SHW
Sherwin-Williams
$320.24
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SHW 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Sherwin-Williams's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $416.31 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$416.31
9 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
9
covering this stock
Price Range
$256 - $416
Analyst target range
A cohort of 9 analysts covers the stock, and the institutional ratings data shows a consistent pattern of 'Outperform', 'Overweight', and 'Buy' recommendations from firms like Mizuho, RBC Capital, UBS, and JP Morgan, indicating a bullish consensus sentiment. While a precise average target price and implied upside are not calculable from the provided data, the recent news of a dividend increase and the string of positive ratings suggest analysts view the current price weakness as a buying opportunity for this industry leader. The target price range is not specified in the data, but the recent upgrades (e.g., Citigroup moving from Neutral to Buy in December 2025) and reaffirmations signal strengthening conviction, though the stock's significant underperformance versus the market year-to-date (-3.22% vs. SPY +8.77%) highlights a disconnect between analyst optimism and recent price action that warrants monitoring.
SHW Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 10.92% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 22.86% gain. Currently trading at $317.30, the price sits just 9.5% above its 52-week low of $289.86 and 16.4% below its 52-week high of $379.65, positioning it in the lower quartile of its annual range, which suggests a potential value opportunity but also reflects persistent selling pressure. The short-term momentum shows a modest 3.58% gain over the past month, which diverges positively from the longer-term downtrend, hinting at a possible stabilization or relief rally; however, the 3-month performance remains negative at -0.78%, indicating the recovery attempt is fragile and lacks conviction. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low near $290, while resistance looms at the recent highs around $379; a decisive break below support would signal a continuation of the bearish trend, whereas a sustained move above resistance would require a significant fundamental catalyst. With a beta of 1.126, the stock is approximately 13% more volatile than the broader market, which is important for risk-aware investors sizing positions in this cyclical name.
Beta
1.13
1.13x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-21.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$290-$380
Price range past year
Annual Return
-4.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SHW Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +6.7% | +2.1% |
| 3m | -0.1% | +12.5% |
| 6m | -2.4% | +12.4% |
| 1y | -4.7% | +26.4% |
| ytd | -2.3% | +10.7% |
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SHW Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has decelerated, with the most recent Q4 2025 revenue of $5.60 billion representing a modest 5.6% year-over-year increase; however, examining the sequential quarterly trend from the income statements reveals a peak in Q3 2025 at $6.36 billion, followed by a decline to $5.60 billion in Q4, indicating potential softening demand or seasonality pressures. The company remains profitable, posting Q4 2025 net income of $476.8 million and a gross margin of 48.84%, but profitability has compressed from the stronger Q3 2025 net income of $833.1 million and gross margin of 49.16%, reflecting margin pressure possibly from input costs or competitive dynamics. Financial health is characterized by a strong return on equity of 55.86% and trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $2.65 billion, which supports dividends and buybacks; however, the balance sheet carries significant leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.16 and a weak current ratio of 0.87, indicating reliance on operational efficiency to service obligations.
Quarterly Revenue
$5.6B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.05%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.48%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SHW Overvalued?
Given the company's consistent profitability with a positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 31.08x, which is significantly higher than the forward PE of 23.96x, implying the market expects earnings growth to improve in the coming year. Compared to industry averages, Sherwin-Williams's trailing PE of 31.08x commands a substantial premium; while specific industry average data is not provided in the valuation dataset, the elevated multiple suggests investors are pricing in the company's market leadership and strong ROE, but it also leaves little room for error if growth falters. Historically, the current trailing PE of 31.08x is below the stock's own recent historical highs seen in Q1 2025 (43.21x) and Q4 2024 (44.73x), indicating the multiple has contracted from more optimistic levels, which could represent a valuation reset if fundamentals stabilize.
PE
31.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 19x~75x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
21.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
