NuScale
SMR
$9.40
+3.64%
NuScale Power Corporation is a pioneer in the development of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), offering a proprietary technology that aims to deliver safe, scalable, and carbon-free power. As the first SMR technology to receive U.S. regulatory approval, NuScale holds a distinct first-mover advantage in a nascent but potentially transformative segment of the nuclear energy industry. However, the company is currently at a critical juncture, facing significant commercialization delays, mounting losses, and intense competition from rivals that have gained faster regulatory approvals and government support. The investor narrative is dominated by concerns over NuScale's ability to secure binding contracts and achieve revenue generation, with recent news highlighting its exclusion from the Trump administration's 'Project Prometheus' initiative, which favored competitors like X-Energy and Oklo.…
SMR
NuScale
$9.40
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SMR Today?
Rating: Hold. NuScale is a high-risk speculative stock with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' from 15 analysts, who set an average target price of $12.63, implying a 34.4% upside from the current price of $9.40. The thesis is that while the company has a pioneering technology and potential for massive growth, the lack of revenue and binding contracts makes it too risky for most investors. The stock is suitable only for those with a high risk tolerance and a long-term horizon, as the path to profitability is uncertain and likely years away.
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SMR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment leans bearish due to the lack of revenue, severe cash burn, and competitive disadvantages. While the forward revenue estimates are optimistic, they are highly speculative and not yet supported by concrete contracts. The stock's technical downtrend and high beta suggest continued volatility and downside risk. To upgrade to a bullish stance, NuScale would need to secure a binding contract, demonstrate a clear path to revenue, and show improving cash flow. Until then, the risk-reward profile is unfavorable, and the stock is likely to underperform.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on NuScale's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $12.63 and implied upside of +34.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$12.63
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+34.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$6 - $20
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $6.00 to a high of $20.00, representing a wide spread of 233% from low to high, indicating significant uncertainty about NuScale's future. The low target of $6.00 suggests a scenario where the company fails to secure contracts and continues to burn cash, potentially leading to dilution or bankruptcy. The high target of $20.00 implies successful commercialization and substantial revenue growth, likely driven by data center demand for SMRs. The wide range reflects the binary nature of the investment case, with analysts split between those who see potential in NuScale's technology and those who doubt its ability to execute. The recent downgrade from the Trump administration's Project Prometheus exclusion has added to bearish sentiment, while the 6-GW program announcement provides a glimmer of hope, but remains non-binding.
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Bulls vs Bears: SMR Investment Factors
NuScale presents a classic high-risk, high-reward speculative investment. The bull case hinges on the company's first-mover regulatory advantage and the potential for explosive revenue growth driven by data center demand, as reflected in forward estimates. However, the bear case is compelling, with severe revenue contraction, massive cash burn, and exclusion from key government initiatives. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger, given the lack of binding contracts and the stock's persistent downtrend. The most critical tension is whether NuScale can convert its non-binding 6-GW program into firm orders, which would validate its technology and growth narrative, or whether it continues to lose ground to competitors, leading to further dilution and value destruction.
Bullish
- First-mover regulatory approval: NuScale's SMR technology is the first to receive U.S. regulatory approval, providing a unique competitive moat. This approval, combined with its 77 MWe module design, positions the company as a pioneer in the small modular reactor space, potentially enabling early commercialization advantages.
- Massive forward revenue estimates: Analysts project average revenue of $1.487 billion for the next fiscal year, implying a forward PS ratio of only 3.47x versus the trailing PS of 73.70x. This suggests the market is pricing in a dramatic revenue ramp, which, if realized, would justify the current valuation and offer significant upside.
- Strong balance sheet with no debt: NuScale has zero debt-to-equity and a current ratio of 4.30, indicating a solid liquidity position. This financial stability provides a runway to fund operations and development without immediate solvency risk, reducing the likelihood of distress in the near term.
- Potential data center demand catalyst: Recent news highlights optimism about data center demand for SMRs, with a 12% stock jump on such sentiment. The 6-GW SMR deployment program, though non-binding, signals growing interest from large-scale energy consumers, which could translate into future contracts.
Bearish
- Severe revenue contraction: Q1 2026 revenue was just $0.565 million, a 95.78% YoY decline from $13.375 million in Q1 2025. This collapse underscores the company's inability to generate consistent revenue, with no commercial product sales yet, making the business highly speculative.
- Massive cash burn and losses: TTM free cash flow is -$753.46 million, with net income of -$440.15 million in Q1 2026 alone. The company's operating margin is -21.91%, and it continues to burn cash at an unsustainable rate, raising concerns about future dilution or the need for external financing.
- Exclusion from Project Prometheus: NuScale was notably excluded from the Trump administration's 'Project Prometheus' initiative, which favored competitors like X-Energy and Oklo. This signals fading government support and a competitive disadvantage, potentially limiting future federal contracts and subsidies.
- Extreme valuation risk: With a trailing PS ratio of 73.70x and EV/Sales of 244.07x, the stock is priced for perfection. The market cap of $5.17 billion against minimal revenue implies that any disappointment in the revenue ramp could lead to a severe de-rating, as evidenced by the 71.93% 1-year price decline.
SMR Technical Analysis
NuScale's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -71.93%, reflecting a severe loss of investor confidence. The current price of $9.40 sits near the lower end of its 52-week range, at approximately 13.6% of the range (calculated as (9.40 - 7.21) / (57.42 - 7.21) = 2.19 / 50.21 = 0.0436, or 4.4% from the low). This positioning near the 52-week low of $7.21 suggests the stock is trading at distressed levels, potentially offering value or signaling a falling knife, depending on the fundamental outlook.
Beta
2.31
2.31x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-85.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$7-$57
Price range past year
Annual Return
-71.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SMR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +8.3% | +3.6% |
| 3m | -17.5% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -30.1% | +11.4% |
| 1y | -71.9% | +18.7% |
| ytd | -42.4% | +12.3% |
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SMR Fundamental Analysis
NuScale's revenue trajectory is highly erratic and currently contracting sharply. In Q1 2026, revenue was just $0.565 million, a 95.78% decline year-over-year (from $13.375 million in Q1 2025), and down from $1.808 million in Q4 2025. The company's revenue is minimal and heavily dependent on government grants and development milestones, with no commercial product sales yet. This volatility underscores the pre-revenue stage of the business, and the lack of a clear growth trajectory is a major concern for investors.
Quarterly Revenue
$565000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-95.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-43.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-753464999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SMR Overvalued?
Given that NuScale has negative net income (TTM net income of -$440.15 million in Q1 2026), the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is not meaningful. Therefore, I selected the price-to-sales (PS) ratio as the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 73.70x, while the forward PS ratio is not directly provided but can be estimated from analyst revenue estimates; using the average estimated revenue of $1.487 billion for the next fiscal year, the forward PS would be approximately 3.47x (market cap of $5.166 billion / $1.487 billion). This wide gap between trailing and forward PS implies the market is pricing in a massive revenue ramp, which is highly speculative given the company's current revenue base.
PE
-6.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-6.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are paramount. NuScale's revenue is negligible and highly volatile, with Q1 2026 revenue of $0.565 million representing a 95.78% YoY decline. The company's TTM free cash flow is -$753.46 million, and net income is deeply negative, indicating a severe cash burn rate. With a current ratio of 4.30 and no debt, the balance sheet provides some cushion, but the lack of commercial revenue and reliance on government grants and milestones creates significant uncertainty. The company's gross margin turned negative in Q1 2026 at -43.19%, reflecting the absence of scale and the high costs of development. This financial profile makes the company vulnerable to funding gaps, potential dilution, and a going-concern risk if it fails to secure contracts or additional capital.
