Terex
TEX
$65.39
-0.56%
Terex Corporation is a global manufacturer of aerial work platforms, materials processing equipment, and specialty equipment serving the construction, aggregates, waste/recycling, and utility industries. The company has strategically streamlined its portfolio through divestitures of underperforming crane and lifting businesses, positioning itself as a focused player in light construction and vocational equipment. Investor attention is currently centered on Terex's ability to sustain growth amid mixed end-market demand, with recent quarterly results showing modest revenue expansion but compressed margins due to cost pressures. The stock's significant year-to-date rally reflects optimism around infrastructure spending and the company's operational improvements.…
TEX
Terex
$65.39
TEX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Terex's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $79.46 and implied upside of +21.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$79.46
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+21.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$67 - $100
Analyst target range
Terex is covered by 12 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating of 2.0 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average price target is $79.04, implying approximately 20.9% upside from the current price of $65.39. The distribution shows a bullish tilt, with recent upgrades from Citigroup (to Buy) and Morgan Stanley (to Overweight) reinforcing positive sentiment. The target price range spans from a low of $65.00 to a high of $100.00. The wide spread of $35 indicates significant uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target of $100 assumes robust growth and margin expansion, likely driven by infrastructure spending and market share gains. The low target of $65, essentially at the current price, suggests downside risk from potential margin compression or demand weakness. The recent upgrade activity, including Citigroup's move from Neutral to Buy in March 2026, signals improving analyst confidence, though the range of estimates highlights the variability in outcomes.
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Bulls vs Bears: TEX Investment Factors
Terex presents a mixed picture: strong analyst support, attractive forward valuation, and robust free cash flow are countered by margin compression, decelerating revenue growth, and a premium valuation relative to industry peers. The bull case rests on the company's ability to stabilize margins and benefit from infrastructure spending, while the bear case centers on continued cost pressures and demand moderation. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull case given the low forward P/E and analyst upside, but the margin trend is the single most important factor to watch. If margins stabilize or improve, the stock could re-rate higher; if they continue to erode, the premium valuation could contract.
Bullish
- Strong Analyst Consensus and Upside: 12 analysts rate TEX a Buy with a mean rating of 2.0 (1=Strong Buy). The average price target of $79.04 implies 20.9% upside from the current $65.39, with a high target of $100 suggesting significant potential if growth accelerates.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: TEX trades at a forward P/E of 11.25x, well below its trailing P/E of 15.89x and its historical average. This low multiple suggests the market is pricing in an earnings recovery, offering a margin of safety if the company delivers.
- Healthy Free Cash Flow Generation: TEX generated $322 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, yielding approximately 9.2% relative to its market cap. This strong cash flow supports dividends (1.28% yield) and provides flexibility for debt reduction or reinvestment.
- Focused Portfolio and End-Market Exposure: Terex has streamlined its portfolio by divesting underperforming crane and lifting businesses, now focusing on aerial work platforms (40% of sales) and materials processing (30%). These segments benefit from nonresidential construction and infrastructure spending, providing a clear growth trajectory.
Bearish
- Margin Compression Trend: Gross margin declined from 23.78% in Q2 2024 to 18.82% in Q4 2025, a drop of nearly 500 basis points. Operating margin also fell from 13.98% to 10.39% over the same period, indicating cost pressures or pricing headwinds that could persist.
- Decelerating Revenue Growth: Revenue growth slowed from 14.7% YoY in Q2 2024 to 6.2% in Q4 2025. Sequential revenue also declined from $1.387 billion in Q3 2025 to $1.318 billion in Q4 2025, suggesting demand may be plateauing.
- Elevated Valuation vs. Industry Peers: TEX's trailing P/E of 15.89x is a 32% premium to the Agricultural-Machinery industry median of ~12x. This premium may be justified by growth, but it leaves the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints.
- High Beta and Market Sensitivity: With a beta of 1.494, TEX is nearly 50% more volatile than the market. In a downturn, the stock could decline significantly more than the S&P 500, amplifying losses for investors.
TEX Technical Analysis
Terex is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +29.28%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.35%. The current price of $65.39 sits at 87.6% of its 52-week range ($41.70–$74.69), indicating the stock is trading near the upper end of its range, suggesting strong momentum but also potential overextension. The stock's beta of 1.494 implies it is nearly 50% more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves. Over the past three months, the stock has gained 7.51%, while the one-month return is +1.89%, showing a deceleration in short-term momentum relative to the longer-term trend. This divergence could signal a consolidation phase or a temporary pullback, especially as the stock has retreated from its 52-week high of $74.69 reached in late June. The recent price action shows the stock trading around $65, well below the June peak, suggesting profit-taking or a loss of near-term upside momentum. The 52-week low of $41.70 provides a clear support level, while the 52-week high of $74.69 acts as resistance. A breakout above $74.69 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $41.70 would indicate a bearish reversal. Given the elevated beta, investors should expect sharper swings than the broader market, requiring careful position sizing.
Beta
1.49
1.49x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-28.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$42-$75
Price range past year
Annual Return
+29.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TEX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.9% | -0.5% |
| 3m | +7.5% | +4.9% |
| 6m | +8.3% | +9.7% |
| 1y | +29.3% | +18.4% |
| ytd | +18.8% | +9.0% |
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TEX Fundamental Analysis
Terex's revenue trajectory shows modest growth, with the most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 2025) of $1.318 billion, up 6.2% year-over-year. However, this represents a deceleration from the prior quarter's revenue of $1.387 billion and a significant slowdown from the 14.7% growth seen in Q2 2024. The revenue segments reveal that Utility Products ($1.3 billion) and Aerial Work Platforms ($839 million) are the primary drivers, while Materials Processing ($279 million) and Specialty Equipment ($148 million) contribute smaller portions. The growth trend suggests that while demand remains positive, it is moderating, which could temper the investment case for aggressive expansion. Profitability metrics show a mixed picture: net income for Q4 2025 was $63 million, with a net margin of 4.78%, down from 10.18% in Q2 2024. Gross margin has compressed to 18.82% from 23.77% a year earlier, reflecting cost inflation or pricing pressure. Operating margin also declined to 10.39% from 13.98% in the prior year period. The company remains profitable, but margin compression is a concern, especially if revenue growth continues to slow. Terex's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.34, indicating moderate leverage. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $322 million, providing a free cash flow yield of approximately 9.2% based on the current market cap. The current ratio of 2.30 suggests ample liquidity, and ROE of 10.55% is respectable. The company generated $205 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2025, sufficient to cover capital expenditures of $34 million and dividends of $11 million, indicating healthy internal cash generation.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.3B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
18.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$322000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TEX Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 15.89x, while the forward P/E is 11.25x, implying the market expects earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that analysts anticipate a significant earnings rebound, which could be a positive signal if realized. Compared to the industry average (Agricultural - Machinery), Terex's trailing P/E of 15.89x is at a premium to the sector median of approximately 12x, representing a 32% premium. This premium may be justified by Terex's stronger growth profile and focus on higher-margin aerial work platforms, but it also leaves less room for error. Historically, Terex's trailing P/E has ranged from about 6x to 30x over the past five years. The current 15.89x is near the middle of this range, suggesting the stock is neither excessively cheap nor expensive relative to its own history. However, the forward P/E of 11.25x is below the historical average, indicating that the market is pricing in a recovery in earnings, which could offer upside if the company delivers.
PE
15.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 6x~20x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Terex's balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.34, which is manageable but not conservative. The company's net margin has compressed from 10.18% in Q2 2024 to 4.78% in Q4 2025, indicating that cost inflation or pricing pressure is eroding profitability. Free cash flow of $322 million is healthy, but if margin compression continues, cash generation could weaken. Revenue concentration in aerial work platforms (40% of sales) exposes the company to cyclical swings in nonresidential construction spending.
Market & Competitive Risks: TEX's trailing P/E of 15.89x represents a 32% premium to the industry median of 12x, making it vulnerable to valuation compression if growth slows. The stock's beta of 1.494 implies high sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, and a recession or slowdown in construction activity could significantly impact demand. The company faces competition from larger players like Caterpillar and JLG, which could pressure pricing and market share. No recent news highlights specific threats, but the cyclical nature of end markets remains a key risk.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a severe downturn, TEX could see revenue decline by 20% or more, margins compress further, and the stock fall to its 52-week low of $41.70, representing a 36% decline from the current price of $65.39. This scenario would likely be triggered by a recession, a sharp drop in construction spending, or a company-specific operational failure. The analyst low target of $65 provides a more moderate downside of only 0.6%, but the 52-week low suggests a realistic worst-case loss of 36%.
