Taylor Morrison
TMHC
$72.44
+0.43%
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation is a U.S. residential construction company that designs, builds, and sells single-family and multi-family homes across entry-level, move-up, and resort lifestyle segments, operating in high-growth markets through four reportable segments: East, Central, West, and Financial Services. As a top-10 national homebuilder, it differentiates itself through a focus on lifestyle communities and a strong presence in the West, which generates the majority of revenue. The current investor narrative centers on Berkshire Hathaway's all-cash acquisition of the company at a 24% premium, announced in June 2026, which has established a valuation floor and sparked debate about the housing cycle's direction and the strategic rationale under new Berkshire leadership. The deal, subject to a shareholder vote on July 22, 2026, has driven the stock near its 52-week high and prompted multiple analyst downgrades as the acquisition price caps upside.…
TMHC
Taylor Morrison
$72.44
Related headlines
TMHC 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Taylor Morrison's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $66.75 and implied upside of -7.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$66.75
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-7.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$49 - $73
Analyst target range
Four analysts cover Taylor Morrison, with a consensus recommendation of 'Hold' and an average target price of $66.75. The current price of $72.13 implies a -7.5% downside to the average target, indicating that the stock has already exceeded the consensus fair value estimate. The recommendation breakdown includes 0 buys, 4 holds, and 0 sells, reflecting a cautious stance after the acquisition announcement. The average target of $66.75 is below the current price, suggesting analysts believe the stock is fully valued or slightly overvalued at current levels. The target price range spans from a low of $49.00 to a high of $73.00. The high target of $73.00 is just above the current price and likely assumes the acquisition closes successfully at the agreed premium, while the low target of $49.00 implies a scenario where the deal falls through and the stock reverts to pre-announcement levels. The wide spread of $24.00 (49% of the low target) signals high uncertainty, though the recent wave of downgrades—including Barclays (Equal Weight from Overweight), Raymond James (Market Perform from Outperform), and RBC Capital (Sector Perform from Outperform)—suggests analysts see limited upside post-acquisition. The limited coverage (4 analysts) is typical for a mid-cap stock, but the high-profile Berkshire deal has increased attention.
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TMHC Technical Analysis
Taylor Morrison is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 14.4% over the past year and currently trading at $72.13, representing 99.5% of its 52-week range ($54.15–$72.50). This positioning near the high end of the range reflects strong momentum following the Berkshire Hathaway acquisition announcement, which propelled the stock from the mid-$50s to the $71–$72 level in early June 2026. The stock is now consolidating just below the 52-week high, suggesting a potential breakout or resistance test. Over the past three months, TMHC has surged 18.9%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 4.7% gain, while the one-month change of +0.8% indicates a pause after the sharp June rally. The three-month relative strength of +14.3% versus the S&P 500 underscores the stock's strong momentum, but the flattening one-month trend suggests the initial acquisition-driven spike has faded. The 52-week low of $54.15 provides a clear support level, while the 52-week high of $72.50 acts as immediate resistance. A breakout above $72.50 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, potentially targeting the acquisition price of ~$74.50 (implied by the 24% premium to the pre-announcement price). Conversely, a breakdown below $54.15 would negate the bullish thesis. With a beta of 1.44, TMHC is 44% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning it amplifies market moves and requires careful position sizing.
Beta
1.44
1.44x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$54-$73
Price range past year
Annual Return
+15.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TMHC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.2% | -0.6% |
| 3m | +17.0% | +5.4% |
| 6m | +12.6% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +15.6% | +18.3% |
| ytd | +23.1% | +8.8% |
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TMHC Fundamental Analysis
Taylor Morrison's revenue trajectory has decelerated sharply, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.387 billion down 26.8% year-over-year, following a pattern of declining quarterly revenue from $2.099 billion in Q4 2025, $2.096 billion in Q3 2025, and $2.030 billion in Q2 2025. The revenue decline is driven by lower home sales, which comprised $1.311 billion of Q1 2026 revenue, while financial services contributed $49.3 million and land sales $14.5 million. This deceleration reflects a challenging housing market with elevated mortgage rates, but the Berkshire acquisition provides a floor for the stock's valuation. The company remains profitable, with Q1 2026 net income of $100.4 million, though this is down from $213.5 million in Q1 2025. Gross margin compressed to 20.95% in Q1 2026 from 24.60% in Q1 2025, and operating margin fell to 10.22% from 15.28%, indicating margin pressure from lower volumes and higher costs. The net margin of 7.24% in Q1 2026 is below the 11.26% reported a year ago, but the company still generates positive net income. Taylor Morrison maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38 and a current ratio of 6.24, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months was $709.7 million, though Q1 2026 saw negative free cash flow of -$20.4 million due to working capital changes. The ROE of 12.4% and ROA of 6.6% reflect solid returns, and the company has been actively repurchasing shares, with $157.1 million in buybacks in Q1 2026 alone.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-26.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
20.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$709650000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TMHC Overvalued?
Since Taylor Morrison has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 7.5x, while the forward P/E is 11.3x, implying the market expects earnings to decline in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that the acquisition premium has lifted the stock price relative to expected earnings, which are projected to fall to $6.54 per share (consensus) from $7.45 in the last twelve months. Compared to the Residential Construction industry average P/E of approximately 10x, TMHC's trailing P/E of 7.5x represents a 25% discount, but the forward P/E of 11.3x is at a 13% premium, reflecting the acquisition premium and anticipated earnings contraction. Historically, TMHC's trailing P/E has ranged from 2.1x (Q3 2022) to 14.1x (Q1 2026), with the current 7.5x near the lower end of its five-year band. This suggests the stock is not overvalued on a historical basis, but the forward P/E indicates the market is pricing in a recovery in earnings beyond the near-term weakness. The P/B ratio of 0.93x is below 1.0x, implying the stock trades at a discount to book value, which is rare for a profitable homebuilder and may reflect skepticism about asset values in a downturn.
PE
7.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 2x~9x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
