Wynn Resorts
WYNN
$75.15
-0.19%
Wynn Resorts Ltd is a luxury integrated resort and casino operator whose portfolio includes Wynn Macau and Encore in Macao, Wynn Las Vegas and Encore in Las Vegas, and Encore Boston Harbor in Massachusetts, with a pipeline that includes a new 432-suite Macao tower targeted for 2029 and a managed integrated resort in the United Arab Emirates expected to open in 2027. The company is positioned as a premium, high-end operator in the global gaming and hospitality industry, competing on service quality, architectural distinction, and a clientele skewed toward high-net-worth international and VIP gamblers rather than mass-market volume. The current investor narrative is dominated by the sharp divergence between the stock's weak price action and the bullish fundamental outlook: shares have fallen roughly 43% over the past year and sit near 52-week lows, yet management and analysts point to record quarterly EBITDA, Macao market share gains, and the UAE development as a multi-year growth catalyst. Debate centers on whether the selloff reflects genuine deterioration in Macao demand and margin pressure or an overreaction that has created a deep-value entry point, with the upcoming UAE opening and Macao recovery serving as the key swing factors.…
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
$75.15
Investment Opinion: Should I buy WYNN Today?
Based on the synthesis of data, WYNN warrants a Hold rating with a speculative bias. The core thesis is that the stock is deeply undervalued on forward earnings and analyst targets, but the severe downtrend, negative equity, and stagnant revenue growth create substantial risks that outweigh the potential upside for most investors. The analyst consensus is a strong buy with an average target of $132.01, implying 74% upside, but the market is clearly pricing in significant deterioration that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Supporting evidence for a Hold includes the attractive forward PE of 14.7x, which is well below the market average, and a PEG ratio of -1.24 (negative due to negative earnings growth, but forward estimates suggest a more reasonable multiple). Revenue growth of 6.9% YoY is modest but positive, and EBITDA margin expanded to 27.8% in Q2 2026 from 22.7% a year earlier. Free cash flow of $792.3 million provides a 6.35% yield, and the dividend yield of 1.4% offers some income. However, the negative equity and high leverage are significant red flags that cannot be ignored.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are a continued decline in Macao gaming revenue, a failure to execute on the UAE project, and further multiple compression due to rising interest rates. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock stabilizes above $80 and Macao revenue shows accelerating growth, or downgrade to Sell if it breaks below $75.75 and forward estimates are revised downward. Relative to its history and peers, Wynn appears undervalued on a forward basis, but the market is demanding a discount due to leverage and growth concerns. This is not a stock for risk-averse investors; it is a speculative value play that requires a strong stomach for volatility.
Sign up to view all
WYNN 12-Month Price Forecast
Wynn presents a classic value trap dilemma: deeply discounted on forward earnings and analyst targets, but with significant balance sheet risks and stagnant growth. The neutral stance reflects the balance between the potential for a sharp recovery if Macao and UAE catalysts materialize, and the risk of further downside if leverage and macro headwinds persist. The stock's low beta and high short interest suggest that any positive news could trigger a short squeeze, but the technical downtrend remains a powerful force. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock stabilizes above $80 and Macao revenue shows accelerating growth, or downgrade to bearish if it breaks below $75.75 with no fundamental improvement.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Wynn Resorts's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $130.96 and implied upside of +74.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$130.96
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+74.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$116 - $144
Analyst target range
Drowning in data?
Find the real signal!
Bulls vs Bears: WYNN Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence due to the relentless downtrend, negative equity, and stagnant sequential revenue, which have driven the stock to near 52-week lows. However, the bull case is supported by deep value on forward earnings, a strong analyst consensus, and record EBITDA, suggesting the selloff may be overdone. The single most important tension is whether the Macao recovery and UAE expansion can reignite growth and justify the optimistic analyst targets, or if structural headwinds will keep the stock depressed. Resolving this tension—likely through upcoming earnings and Macao gaming data—will determine the stock's direction. Given the extreme pessimism priced in, any positive catalyst could trigger a sharp short-covering rally, but the technical damage and leverage remain significant risks.
Bullish
- Deep Value on Forward Earnings: At $75.88, WYNN trades at just 14.7x forward EPS of $5.97, a steep discount to the S&P 500's ~22x and its own historical multiple. This low multiple implies the market is pricing in a severe earnings decline that may not materialize given record EBITDA and Macao share gains.
- Analyst Consensus Strong Buy with 74% Upside: All 20 analysts rate WYNN a strong buy (mean 1.19), with an average target of $132.01, implying 74% upside from the current price. The lowest target of $116 still suggests 53% upside, indicating a wide margin of safety even in the most conservative analyst view.
- Record EBITDA and Improving Margins: Q2 2026 EBITDA reached $516.3 million, a 27.8% margin, up from $395.0 million (22.7% margin) in Q2 2025. This 30.7% YoY EBITDA growth demonstrates strong operational leverage and cost control, despite a modest 6.9% revenue increase.
- UAE and Macao Pipeline to Drive Growth: The UAE integrated resort, opening in 2027, and the 432-suite Macao tower in 2029 provide visible multi-year growth catalysts. These projects are fully funded and expected to contribute significantly to EBITDA, with the UAE potentially adding $200-300 million annually.
Bearish
- Severe Downtrend and Technical Breakdown: WYNN is down 43.1% over the past year and 38.1% YTD, trading just $0.13 above its 52-week low of $75.75. The stock has underperformed SPY by 58.1 percentage points over one year, indicating a persistent company-specific de-rating with no signs of stabilization.
- Negative Equity and High Leverage: Shareholders' equity is negative, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of -44.6 and a total debt-to-capitalization exceeding 100% at 101.4%. This highly leveraged balance sheet limits financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to rising interest rates or economic downturns.
- Interest Burden Consuming Half of Operating Income: Q2 2026 interest expense of $152.2 million consumed 50.9% of operating income of $299.2 million, leaving a thin net margin of 7.5%. This heavy interest burden is a persistent drag on earnings and cash flow available to shareholders.
- Stagnant Sequential Revenue Growth: Revenue has been essentially flat over the past three quarters: $1.866B in Q4 2025, $1.857B in Q1 2026, and $1.857B in Q2 2026. This plateau suggests the Macao recovery and Las Vegas operations have stalled, raising concerns about future growth prospects.
WYNN Technical Analysis
Wynn is in a sustained and severe downtrend, with the stock down 43.09% over the past year and 38.09% year-to-date, a decline that has been relentless rather than episodic. At a current price of $75.88 against a 52-week range of $75.75 to $134.72, the stock is trading at just 0.1% above its 52-week low and roughly 56.3% of the way down from its high, meaning it is effectively pinned to the bottom of its annual range. This positioning signals that sellers remain in control and that the stock is in a falling-knife configuration rather than a basing pattern, since there has been no meaningful attempt to reclaim even the mid-point of the range. The 1-year relative strength versus SPY of -58.10 percentage points underscores that this is not a market-wide phenomenon but a company-specific de-rating, and the -43.09% max drawdown confirms the depth of the capital destruction over the period.
Short-term momentum is decisively negative and, if anything, accelerating to the downside: the stock is down 17.09% over the past month and 20.88% over the past three months, with the 1-month decline nearly matching the 3-month decline, indicating that the selling pressure has intensified recently rather than stabilized. This contrasts sharply with the broader market, as SPY gained 0.59% over the past month and 3.34% over three months, producing a 1-month relative strength of -17.68 and a 3-month relative strength of -24.22. The 6-month change of -25.63% versus SPY's +17.35% shows the underperformance is persistent across every time horizon, and the most recent sessions have been particularly weak, with the stock falling from $79.43 on September 30 to $75.88 on October 2, a decline of about 4.5% in just three trading days. This pattern of accelerating losses into new lows, with no visible volume capitulation or reversal signal in the data, suggests momentum traders remain short and dip-buyers have yet to step in.
Key technical levels are now defined by the 52-week low of $75.75, which is only $0.13 below the current price of $75.88 and represents the immediate line in the sand; a decisive breakdown below this level would likely trigger stop-loss selling and open the door to a new leg lower with no historical support until the stock establishes a fresh base. To the upside, the 52-week high of $134.72 is the ultimate resistance, but the more relevant near-term resistance lies in the $90 to $100 zone where the stock traded in August and early September before breaking down. With a beta of 0.991, Wynn's volatility is essentially in line with the broader market, which is notable given the stock's idiosyncratic collapse; this means the decline is driven by company-specific and sector-specific factors rather than leverage to market beta, and position sizing should account for the fact that the stock offers no diversification benefit in a downturn despite its low beta. The short ratio of 5.43 indicates that short sellers would need over five days of average volume to cover, a moderately elevated reading that raises the possibility of a sharp short-covering rally if any positive catalyst emerges near these lows.
Beta
0.95
0.95x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-43.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$74-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
-39.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WYNN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -16.7% | +2.1% |
| 3m | -24.7% | +3.1% |
| 6m | -27.7% | +14.6% |
| 1y | -39.2% | +16.0% |
| ytd | -38.7% | +14.2% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
WYNN Fundamental Analysis
Wynn's revenue trajectory is modestly growing but decelerating in momentum terms: Q2 2026 revenue came in at $1.857 billion with year-over-year growth of 6.86%, following Q1 2026 revenue of $1.857 billion and Q4 2025 revenue of $1.866 billion, showing essentially flat sequential performance over the past three quarters. The year-over-year comparison is favorable against Q2 2025's $1.738 billion, but the sequential stagnation suggests the Macao recovery and Las Vegas operations have hit a plateau rather than accelerating. Within the revenue mix, the casino segment dominates at $1.175 billion, followed by occupancy at $290 million, food and beverage at $264 million, and entertainment retail and other at $127 million, meaning gaming remains the overwhelming profit engine and any softness in VIP or mass gaming volumes disproportionately impacts the top line. The 6.86% growth rate is respectable for a mature resort operator but is not fast enough to justify the stock's collapse on fundamentals alone, implying the market is pricing in forward deterioration or macro headwinds not yet visible in reported results.
Profitability remains solid at the operating level but is weighed down by a heavy interest burden: Q2 2026 net income was $140.06 million on a 7.54% net margin, with gross margin of 40.92% and operating margin of 16.11%, while EBITDA of $516.3 million represented a healthy 27.81% EBITDA margin. The gross margin trend has been relatively stable, moving from 41.79% in Q2 2025 to 40.92% in Q2 2026, a modest 87 basis point compression that is not alarming but does suggest slight pricing or cost pressure. The critical issue is below the operating line: interest expense of $152.2 million in Q2 2026 consumed roughly 51% of operating income of $299.2 million, leaving income before tax of $198.7 million and net income of $140.1 million after a $16.2 million tax provision. The net margin of 4.59% on a trailing basis is thin for a luxury resort operator, and the negative ROE of -118.82% reflects the company's negative equity position rather than operational failure, a distinction that is critical for interpreting the profitability picture.
Wynn's balance sheet is highly leveraged and its equity is negative, which is the single most important fundamental risk factor: debt-to-equity is reported at -44.62 (a negative figure because shareholders' equity is negative), the debt ratio stands at 93.79%, and total debt to capitalization exceeds 100% at 101.39%, meaning the company operates with more debt than capital. Liquidity is adequate but not generous, with a current ratio of 1.63 and cash of $1.667 billion at the end of Q2 2026, while free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis is $792.3 million and Q2 2026 free cash flow was $338.9 million after $153.0 million of capital expenditures. The company is generating enough cash to fund operations and modest growth internally, but the $152 million quarterly interest expense and ongoing dividend payments of $68.1 million per quarter mean financial flexibility is constrained, and the negative equity means book-value-based valuation metrics are meaningless. The FCF yield of roughly 6.35% on the $12.48 billion market cap is attractive in isolation, but it must be weighed against the leverage and the capital-intensive nature of the UAE and Macao development pipeline.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
40.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$792324000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is WYNN Overvalued?
PE
38.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~37x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Wynn's financial risks are dominated by its highly leveraged balance sheet and negative equity. With total debt-to-capitalization exceeding 100% at 101.4% and a debt-to-equity ratio of -44.6, the company operates with more debt than capital, leaving little cushion for adverse conditions. Interest expense of $152.2 million per quarter consumes over half of operating income, and with $1.667 billion in cash against a $12.48 billion market cap, liquidity is adequate but not generous. The negative equity also makes book-value metrics meaningless and could limit access to capital markets if refinancing needs arise. Additionally, the 6.9% revenue growth is not fast enough to quickly deleverage, and any downturn in Macao or Las Vegas could pressure cash flows further.
Market and competitive risks include the stock's severe underperformance, with a 1-year relative strength versus SPY of -58.1 percentage points, indicating a company-specific de-rating that may persist. The beta of 0.991 suggests Wynn moves in line with the market, but its idiosyncratic collapse means it offers no diversification benefit in a downturn. Valuation compression risk is evident as the stock trades at a forward PE of 14.7x, which could contract further if earnings disappoint. Competitive pressures in Macao from rivals like Sands China and MGM Resorts, as well as regulatory risks in both Macao and the U.S., pose ongoing threats. Recent news of cooler inflation and potential rate cuts could provide some relief, but Wynn's high leverage makes it sensitive to interest rate changes.
In a worst-case scenario, a significant slowdown in Macao gaming demand, coupled with a failed UAE launch or cost overruns, could drive the stock below its 52-week low of $75.75. The analyst low target of $116 is above the current price, but in a bear case, the stock could retest historical lows around $50-$60, representing a 21-34% decline from current levels. The max drawdown over the past year is already -43.1%, and further deterioration could see a total loss of 50% or more from the current price. Such a scenario would likely involve a recession, a Chinese regulatory crackdown, and a breakdown in technical support, triggering stop-loss selling and a new leg lower.
FAQ
The most severe risk is financial: negative equity and a debt-to-capitalization ratio exceeding 100% leave little margin for error, and interest expense of $152 million per quarter consumes over half of operating income. Competitive and regulatory risks in Macao, which accounts for 49% of EBITDA, include potential policy changes and competition from Sands China and MGM. Macro risks include a Chinese economic slowdown that could reduce VIP gaming demand, and rising interest rates that would increase borrowing costs. Company-specific risks include execution challenges on the UAE project and stagnant sequential revenue growth, which could lead to further earnings disappointments. Ranked by severity: financial leverage, Macao concentration, execution risk, and macro sensitivity.
The 12-month forecast is highly uncertain, with a base case (50% probability) targeting $100-$120, a bull case (25%) targeting $132-$144, and a bear case (25%) targeting $50-$75. The base case assumes steady Macao recovery and no major setbacks, while the bull case requires accelerating growth and successful UAE execution. The bear case involves a Chinese slowdown and project delays. The most likely scenario is the base case, where the stock gradually recovers from oversold levels but leverage concerns cap upside. Key assumptions include mid-single-digit revenue growth and stable interest expense. The wide range reflects the high uncertainty and the stock's current depressed sentiment.
WYNN appears undervalued on forward earnings, trading at a forward PE of 14.7x compared to the S&P 500's ~22x and its own historical average of 20-25x. The price-to-sales ratio of 1.75 and EV/EBITDA of 13.2 are also below industry averages, suggesting the market is pricing in significant risks. However, the negative equity and high leverage justify a discount, and the trailing PE of 38.1x reflects depressed earnings. The market seems to expect a deterioration in Macao gaming demand and potential financial distress, which may be overly pessimistic given record EBITDA and analyst targets. If the company meets estimates, the stock could re-rate higher, but the valuation is not a bargain without considering the balance sheet risks.
WYNN is not a straightforward buy for most investors due to its high leverage and negative equity, but it offers a compelling risk/reward for those willing to accept volatility. The stock trades at 14.7x forward earnings, a significant discount to the market, and analysts have a strong buy consensus with a $132 average target, implying 74% upside. However, the company's debt-to-equity ratio is -44.6, and interest expense consumes over half of operating income, which could lead to financial distress if earnings decline. The biggest downside risk is a break below the 52-week low of $75.75, which could trigger a selloff to $50-$60. For risk-tolerant investors with a long-term horizon, WYNN could be a good speculative buy on stabilization, but it is not suitable for conservative portfolios.
WYNN is more suitable for long-term investment (3-5 years) for investors who can tolerate volatility, as the UAE project and Macao recovery are multi-year catalysts. The stock's beta of 0.991 suggests market-like volatility, but its idiosyncratic 43% decline over the past year shows it can deviate significantly. The dividend yield of 1.4% is modest, and the payout ratio of 53% is sustainable but not generous. Short-term trading is risky due to the strong downtrend and potential for further declines. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to allow the growth pipeline to materialize and for the balance sheet to deleverage. Earnings visibility is low due to Macao's dependence on Chinese policy, so position sizing should be conservative.
