Wynn Resorts
WYNN
$102.53
+0.16%
Wynn Resorts operates luxury casinos and resorts, with flagship properties in Las Vegas, Macau, and Boston, and is expanding into the UAE. As a premium player in the global gaming and hospitality industry, it differentiates itself through high-end amenities and a strong brand. The current investor narrative centers on its growth trajectory, particularly the upcoming Cotai Palace expansion in Macau and the managed resort in the UAE, alongside a recovery in travel and gaming demand. Recent attention also focuses on margin trends and the company's ability to generate free cash flow amid significant capital expenditures.…
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
$102.53
Investment Opinion: Should I buy WYNN Today?
Based on the analysis, WYNN is rated a Buy. The consensus is Strong Buy with an average target of $132.68, implying 30.7% upside. The thesis is that WYNN's growth initiatives, including Cotai Palace and UAE, will drive earnings growth, and the current forward PE of 19.3x is attractive relative to the industry average of 22x.
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WYNN 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. The forward valuation is attractive, and recent fundamental improvements support growth expectations. However, the high leverage and negative equity introduce uncertainty. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if the company demonstrates sustained free cash flow and margin improvement in the next two quarters. It would be downgraded to neutral if revenue growth falls below 5% or if the stock breaks below $95.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Wynn Resorts's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $132.58 and implied upside of +29.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$132.58
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+29.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$116 - $145
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is robust with 19 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is 'Strong Buy' with a mean rating of 1.2. The average target price is $132.68, implying a 30.7% upside from the current price of $101.50. The distribution is heavily bullish, with no sell ratings, and recent actions from major firms like JP Morgan and Wells Fargo have reaffirmed Overweight ratings. The target range spans from $115.00 to $145.00, with the low target still 13.3% above the current price, indicating that even the most bearish analyst sees upside. The high target of $145 suggests a 42.9% upside, likely assuming successful execution of expansion projects and continued margin improvement. The relatively wide spread of $30 between low and high targets reflects moderate uncertainty, but the overall sentiment is strongly positive, with analysts expecting the stock to recover from its recent underperformance.
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Bulls vs Bears: WYNN Investment Factors
WYNN presents a classic value-versus-momentum conflict. Bullish evidence is strong: analysts are overwhelmingly positive, forward valuation is reasonable, and recent fundamentals show improving margins and revenue growth. However, the stock's persistent underperformance and high leverage create significant risk. The single most important tension is whether the market's optimism about future growth (reflected in the 19.3x forward PE) is justified by execution on expansion projects like Cotai Palace and UAE. If growth materializes, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, the high debt and negative equity could amplify downside. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given analyst conviction and margin improvement, but the bear case cannot be ignored due to technical weakness and financial leverage.
Bullish
- Strong Buy consensus with 30.7% upside: 19 analysts rate WYNN a Strong Buy (mean 1.2) with an average target of $132.68, implying 30.7% upside from $101.50. Even the lowest target of $115 is 13.3% above current price, indicating no analyst sees downside.
- Forward PE at 12% discount to industry: WYNN trades at 19.3x forward earnings versus the industry average of 22x, a 12% discount. This suggests the market is pricing in above-average growth but not overpaying on a forward basis.
- Revenue growth accelerating to 9.2% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.86B, up 9.2% year-over-year, driven by casino revenue of $1.18B and occupancy of $290M. This marks a recovery from slower quarters in 2025.
- Gross margin expanded to 40.2%: Gross margin improved to 40.2% in Q1 2026 from 31.9% in Q4 2025, a significant 830 basis point jump. Operating margin also rose to 15.9%, reflecting better cost control and operational leverage.
Bearish
- Stock underperformed market by 26.8%: WYNN fell 5.3% over the past year while the S&P 500 gained 21.5%, a relative underperformance of 26.8 percentage points. The stock is down 17.2% YTD and 14% over six months, indicating persistent selling pressure.
- Negative equity and high leverage: Debt-to-equity is -44.6 due to negative shareholders' equity, a red flag for financial stability. The company carries substantial debt, with interest expense of $152M in Q1 2026, which consumes a large portion of operating income.
- Trailing PE of 38.1x is 73% above industry: WYNN's trailing PE of 38.1x is 73% higher than the industry average of 22x, indicating the market is paying a premium for past earnings. This leaves little room for disappointment.
- Q1 2026 free cash flow was negative: Free cash flow in Q1 2026 was -$25.6M due to heavy capital expenditures for expansion projects. This could pressure near-term cash generation and increase reliance on debt.
WYNN Technical Analysis
WYNN's price trend over the past year has been a downtrend, with a 1-year change of -5.3%, while the S&P 500 gained 21.5%. The stock is currently trading at $101.50, which is 75% of its 52-week range (low $92.52, high $134.72), indicating it is closer to the lower end. This positioning suggests a bearish sentiment, with the stock having lost significant ground relative to the market, though it may be approaching a value zone if fundamentals stabilize.
Beta
1.00
1.00x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-29.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$93-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
-7.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WYNN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +5.6% | +2.9% |
| 3m | +7.5% | +5.0% |
| 6m | -9.6% | +13.9% |
| 1y | -7.9% | +20.4% |
| ytd | -16.3% | +13.8% |
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WYNN Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been growing, with the latest quarter (Q1 2026) showing $1.86 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year. This growth is driven by strength in casino operations, which contributed $1.18 billion, and occupancy revenue of $290 million. However, growth has been uneven, with Q4 2025 revenue slightly higher at $1.87 billion, but Q2 and Q3 2025 were lower at $1.74 billion and $1.83 billion, respectively. The company is profitable, with net income of $120 million in Q1 2026, and gross margin improved to 40.2% from 31.9% in Q4 2025, indicating margin expansion. Operating margin also rose to 15.9% from 15.5%, reflecting better cost control. The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of -44.6 (negative equity), but the current ratio is healthy at 1.63, and free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $693 million, indicating adequate liquidity. However, Q1 2026 free cash flow was negative at -$25.6 million due to heavy capital expenditures, which may pressure near-term cash generation.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+9.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
40.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$693068000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is WYNN Overvalued?
Given positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 38.1x, while the forward PE is 19.3x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. This gap suggests optimism about future profitability, likely driven by Macau recovery and new projects. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (from valuation data), WYNN trades at a 73% premium on a trailing basis, but on a forward basis, it is at a 12% discount, indicating that the market is pricing in above-average growth. Historically, the stock's PE has ranged from 3.5x to 254x over the past few years, with the current trailing PE of 38x near the higher end, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic expectations. However, the forward PE is more moderate, reflecting anticipated earnings growth.
PE
38.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~37x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are substantial. WYNN's debt-to-equity ratio is -44.6, indicating negative equity, which is a red flag for financial stability. The company carries significant debt, with interest expense of $152M in Q1 2026, consuming over half of operating income. While the current ratio of 1.63 provides some liquidity cushion, the negative free cash flow in Q1 2026 (-$25.6M) due to heavy capex could strain cash reserves. The payout ratio of 53.4% on dividends is manageable, but if earnings decline, dividend sustainability could be questioned. Revenue concentration in Macau and Las Vegas exposes the company to regional economic downturns and regulatory changes, as seen in the past with Macau's gaming license renewals.
FAQ
The key risks are: (1) Financial risk from high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -44.6 and negative equity, which could amplify losses, (2) Market risk from valuation compression, as the trailing PE is 73% above the industry average, (3) Macro risk from economic slowdowns that reduce discretionary spending on travel and gaming, and (4) Company-specific risk from execution on expansion projects, particularly the UAE resort, which is not expected to open until 2027. The most severe risk is a combination of these factors leading to a decline to the 52-week low of $92.52, a 8.8% drop.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case probability of 50% targeting $115-$135, a bull case probability of 30% targeting $135-$145, and a bear case probability of 20% targeting $92-$105. The most likely scenario is the base case, where the stock reaches the average analyst target of $132.68, implying 30.7% upside. This assumes steady revenue growth and margin improvement. The bull case would require faster Macau recovery and successful UAE execution, while the bear case would involve delays and financial stress.
WYNN is undervalued on a forward basis, with a forward PE of 19.3x versus the industry average of 22x, a 12% discount. However, on a trailing basis, the PE of 38.1x is 73% above the industry average, indicating that the market is pricing in significant earnings growth. The stock is trading at 75% of its 52-week range, suggesting it is closer to the lower end. Overall, the valuation is reasonable if the company meets growth expectations, but it is not a bargain.
WYNN is a good buy for investors with a long-term horizon and tolerance for volatility. The stock offers a 30.7% upside to the average analyst target of $132.68, and the forward PE of 19.3x is below the industry average of 22x. However, the high debt and negative equity are significant risks. The stock is suitable for growth investors who believe in the Macau recovery and UAE expansion. It is not suitable for conservative investors or those seeking stable income, given the low dividend yield and high volatility.
WYNN is more suitable for long-term investment, given its growth stage and expansion projects that will take years to materialize. The stock has a beta of 1.005, indicating market-level volatility, and has underperformed the market over the past year, making it risky for short-term trading. The dividend yield is low at 1.4%, so income is not a primary reason to hold. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to allow the UAE and Cotai Palace projects to contribute to earnings. Short-term traders may find opportunities in volatility, but the stock's fundamentals are better suited for long-term investors.
