Assurant
AIZ
$285.65
+0.08%
Assurant, Inc. is a global provider of protection products and services, partnering with brands to safeguard and service connected devices, homes, and automobiles across North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The company operates through two primary segments: Global Lifestyle, which includes mobile device solutions and consumer electronics services, and Global Housing, which offers lender-placed homeowners, manufactured housing, and flood insurance. As a specialized player in the insurance and protection space, Assurant differentiates itself through its focus on embedded insurance and device protection programs that leverage partnerships with major retailers, wireless carriers, and financial institutions. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust growth trajectory, driven by strong performance in its Global Lifestyle segment and expanding margins, while also navigating the cyclicality of the housing market and the ongoing digital transformation of insurance distribution.…
AIZ
Assurant
$285.65
Investment Opinion: Should I buy AIZ Today?
Based on the analysis, AIZ is rated a Buy. The thesis is that Assurant's strong growth in Global Lifestyle, improving profitability, and undervaluation relative to growth (PEG 0.71) will drive share price appreciation toward the analyst average target of $322.33, implying 12.8% upside. The consensus 'Strong Buy' rating and no sell ratings reinforce this view.
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AIZ 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish, driven by strong fundamental growth and attractive valuation. The stock's low beta and improving margins provide a favorable risk/reward profile. However, the medium confidence reflects the cyclicality of the housing segment and the stock's proximity to 52-week highs. If growth continues and margins expand, the stock could re-rate higher; conversely, any housing weakness could lead to underperformance. Upgrades would occur if revenue growth exceeds 12% and margins expand further, while downgrades would be triggered by a housing downturn or margin compression.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Assurant's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $330.00 and implied upside of +15.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$330.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+15.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$320 - $355
Analyst target range
Assurant has coverage from 6 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' (mean rating of 1.43 on a 1-5 scale). The average target price is $322.33, implying a 12.8% upside from the current price of $285.65. The distribution is bullish, with no sell ratings and a majority of buy/overweight ratings, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects. The target price range spans from $274.00 (low) to $355.00 (high), with the high target suggesting a 24.3% upside, likely assuming continued strong performance in Global Lifestyle and margin expansion. The low target implies a 4.1% downside, possibly pricing in housing market weakness or competitive pressures. Recent actions include upgrades from Morgan Stanley (Overweight) and reaffirmations from KBW and Truist, indicating a positive sentiment shift.
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Bulls vs Bears: AIZ Investment Factors
Assurant presents a compelling bull case with strong revenue growth, expanding margins, and attractive valuation metrics like a PEG of 0.71 and forward PE below industry. The bear case centers on the stock's proximity to 52-week highs, housing segment cyclicality, and liquidity concerns. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence, supported by analyst consensus and fundamental improvements. The key tension is whether the housing segment's cyclicality and potential multiple compression can offset the robust growth in Global Lifestyle. If housing weakens, the stock could face headwinds despite lifestyle strength.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 11.26% YoY to $3.42 billion, accelerating from the prior quarter's $3.35 billion. This growth is driven by the Global Lifestyle segment, which contributed $2.66 billion, indicating robust demand for device protection and connected services.
- Improving Profitability: Net margin expanded to 8.01% in Q1 2026 from 4.77% a year ago, while operating margin rose to 9.81% from 5.98%. This improvement reflects operational efficiencies and favorable claims experience, enhancing earnings quality.
- Undervalued on PEG: With a PEG ratio of 0.71, the stock trades at a discount to its growth rate, suggesting undervaluation. The forward PE of 12.19x is below the industry average of 15x, offering a margin of safety for value-oriented investors.
- Strong Analyst Conviction: Analysts rate AIZ as a 'Strong Buy' with a mean rating of 1.43 and an average target price of $322.33, implying 12.8% upside. No sell ratings and recent upgrades from Morgan Stanley and KBW reflect positive sentiment.
Bearish
- Trading Near 52-Week High: At $285.65, the stock is 94.1% of its 52-week range, leaving limited upside from current levels. The 1-year gain of 30.62% may have priced in much of the positive news, increasing vulnerability to profit-taking.
- Housing Segment Cyclicality: Global Housing revenue of $769.8 million is exposed to mortgage and housing market cycles. Rising interest rates or a housing downturn could pressure this segment, offsetting gains from Global Lifestyle.
- Low Current Ratio: The current ratio of 0.55 indicates potential liquidity concerns, as current liabilities exceed current assets. This could limit financial flexibility in adverse scenarios, though typical for insurance companies with different liquidity profiles.
- High Valuation on P/B: The price-to-book ratio of 2.06x is elevated, suggesting the market is paying a premium for book value. If growth decelerates, multiple compression could lead to significant downside.
AIZ Technical Analysis
Assurant's stock is in a clear sustained uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +30.62% and a 6-month change of +24.42%. The current price of $285.65 sits at 94.1% of its 52-week range (low of $205.01, high of $303.94), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, which reflects strong momentum but also potential overextension. The price has consistently made higher lows and higher highs over the past year, supported by a beta of 0.543, suggesting lower volatility relative to the market, which may appeal to risk-averse investors.
Beta
0.54
0.54x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$205-$304
Price range past year
Annual Return
+30.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AIZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.7% | +3.0% |
| 3m | +14.8% | +1.4% |
| 6m | +24.4% | +13.1% |
| 1y | +30.6% | +19.3% |
| ytd | +20.2% | +12.8% |
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AIZ Fundamental Analysis
Assurant's revenue trajectory is robust, with Q1 2026 revenue of $3.42 billion, up 11.26% year-over-year, and a clear acceleration from the prior quarter's $3.35 billion. The Global Lifestyle segment, contributing $2.66 billion, is the primary growth driver, while Global Housing added $769.8 million, reflecting a diversified revenue base. The company's gross margin stands at 77.51%, and net income for Q1 2026 was $274.1 million, yielding a net margin of 8.01%, up from 4.77% in Q1 2025, indicating improving profitability. Operating margin expanded to 9.81% from 5.98% a year ago, driven by operational efficiencies and favorable claims experience.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
77.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is AIZ Overvalued?
Given Assurant's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 13.85x, while the forward PE is 12.19x, implying the market expects earnings growth of approximately 13.6% over the next year. This forward discount suggests a positive growth outlook, supported by a PEG ratio of 0.71, which indicates the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate. Compared to the specialty insurance industry average PE of 15x, Assurant trades at a 7.7% discount, which is justified by its superior ROE of 14.86% versus the industry's 12%, and its strong free cash flow generation.
PE
13.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 3x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, Assurant carries a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38, which is manageable but not negligible. The current ratio of 0.55 suggests potential liquidity stress, though this is common in insurance where liabilities are matched by future premiums. The company's net margin of 8.01% is improving but still sensitive to claims experience; a spike in claims could compress margins, as seen in Q1 2025 when net margin was only 4.77%. Free cash flow of $1.45 billion TTM provides a cushion, but any deterioration in cash generation could impact dividend sustainability (payout ratio 19.3%).
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Housing market cyclicality, as the Global Housing segment is exposed to mortgage rates and home prices; a downturn could increase claims and reduce earnings. 2) Competitive pressures in device protection from tech companies and other insurers could erode market share. 3) Interest rate sensitivity, as rising rates can compress insurance multiples and increase borrowing costs. 4) Operational risks from claims experience, as seen in Q1 2025 when net margin was only 4.77%. The most severe risk is a housing market crash, which could lead to a 20%+ decline in the stock.
The 12-month forecast is positive, with a base case target of $322.33 (analyst average) and a bull case of $355 (analyst high). The bear case is $274 (analyst low). Probabilities are 50% base, 30% bull, and 20% bear. The most likely scenario is moderate growth, with revenue increasing 10-11% and margins holding, leading to a 12.8% upside. If growth accelerates, the stock could reach $355, while a housing downturn could push it to $274. Overall, the risk/reward is favorable.
AIZ is undervalued based on key metrics. The forward PE of 12.19x is 7.7% below the industry average of 15x, and the PEG ratio of 0.71 suggests the stock is cheap relative to its growth rate. The price-to-book of 2.06x is higher than some peers, but the superior ROE of 14.86% justifies the premium. The market is pricing in modest growth, but the company's accelerating revenue and margin expansion suggest expectations are too low. Overall, the valuation offers a margin of safety.
Yes, AIZ is a good buy for investors seeking a growth stock with reasonable valuation. The stock trades at a forward PE of 12.19x, below the industry average of 15x, and has a PEG of 0.71, indicating undervaluation relative to growth. Analyst consensus is Strong Buy with an average target of $322.33, implying 12.8% upside. The main risk is housing market cyclicality, which could cause downside to $274 (analyst low). For long-term investors, the growth in Global Lifestyle and improving margins make it an attractive addition.
AIZ is suitable for long-term investment due to its stable growth, low beta (0.543), and improving fundamentals. The company's focus on device protection and embedded insurance provides secular tailwinds, and its dividend yield of 1.39% adds income. Short-term trading is possible given the stock's momentum, but the low volatility and moderate growth make it better suited for a 3-5 year horizon. Investors should monitor quarterly earnings for margin trends and housing segment performance. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to ride out cyclicality.
