Alignment Healthcare, Inc. Common Stock
ALHC
$20.77
-3.40%
Alignment Healthcare is a next-generation, consumer-centric platform revolutionizing the healthcare experience for seniors through Medicare Advantage plans, marketed and sold direct-to-consumer. As a disruptive technology-enabled clinical model, it differentiates itself by combining a proprietary platform with a coordinated care approach to improve health outcomes. The current investor narrative centers on the company's accelerating revenue growth trajectory, driven by strong membership expansion and favorable Medicare Advantage tailwinds, while the path to sustained profitability remains a key debate following a mixed quarterly earnings history.…
ALHC
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. Common Stock
$20.77
Related headlines
ALHC 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Alignment Healthcare, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $24.92 and implied upside of +20.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$24.92
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+20.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$16 - $30
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is limited with only 3 analysts providing estimates, which is typical for a mid-cap stock. The consensus recommendation leans bullish, with firms like JP Morgan (Overweight), TD Cowen (Buy), and Piper Sandler (Overweight) maintaining positive ratings, while UBS rates it Neutral. The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $1.60, with a range of $1.56 to $1.66, implying a forward P/E of approximately 12.4x based on the current price of $19.83. This suggests significant upside if profitability materializes. The implied upside to the average EPS target is not directly calculable without a price target, but the positive ratings imply confidence. The wide range of EPS estimates ($1.56–$1.66) indicates moderate uncertainty, but the tight spread relative to the average suggests analysts have relatively high conviction. Recent upgrades from JP Morgan (from Neutral to Overweight in November 2025) and the stock's inclusion in the S&P SmallCap 600 (announced May 2026) are positive catalysts that could attract more institutional coverage and support the stock.
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ALHC Technical Analysis
The stock exhibits a strong recovery trend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +48.2%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.6%. Currently trading at $19.83, it sits at 69% of its 52-week range ($11.63–$25.12), indicating it has reclaimed a substantial portion of its highs but remains below the peak. This positioning suggests bullish momentum is intact but not overextended, leaving room for further upside if catalysts materialize. Short-term momentum shows a divergence: the 1-month change is -3.6% while the 3-month change is -3.3%, contrasting with the strong 1-year trend. This recent pullback from the June highs (near $24) could signal a temporary consolidation or profit-taking after a sharp rally, rather than a trend reversal, especially given the stock's beta of 1.05, which aligns closely with the market. The 52-week low of $11.63 provides a solid support level, while the 52-week high of $25.12 acts as key resistance. A breakout above $25.12 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $11.63 would negate the recovery. With a beta near 1.0, the stock's volatility is in line with the broader market, reducing the need for outsized risk adjustments.
Beta
1.05
1.05x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-44.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$12-$25
Price range past year
Annual Return
+68.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ALHC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -2.4% | +0.4% |
| 3m | -0.3% | +5.5% |
| 6m | -12.8% | +8.4% |
| 1y | +68.3% | +18.9% |
| ytd | +2.7% | +9.6% |
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ALHC Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is robust and accelerating: Q4 2025 revenue of $1.013 billion grew 44.4% year-over-year, up from $701 million in Q4 2024. The trailing twelve-month revenue reached approximately $3.95 billion, driven by strong premium and capitation revenue segments ($425.8M and $33.2M, respectively). This growth trajectory underscores the company's success in expanding its Medicare Advantage membership base. Profitability remains mixed but improving. The company reported a net loss of $11.0 million in Q4 2025, narrowing from a $31.1 million loss in Q4 2024, with gross margin improving to 10.5% from 12.3% a year ago. However, Q2 and Q3 2025 showed net profits of $15.7M and $3.7M, respectively, indicating a seasonal pattern. The operating margin turned positive at 0.4% for the trailing twelve months, a significant improvement from negative margins in prior periods. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.89 and a current ratio of 1.74, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow turned positive on a trailing twelve-month basis at $123.7 million, a sharp reversal from negative FCF in prior years, suggesting the company is now generating cash to fund operations internally. ROE remains slightly negative at -0.4%, but the trend is improving as profitability increases.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+44.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
10.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$123672000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ALHC Overvalued?
Since net income is negative on a trailing basis (TTM net loss of $11.0M), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 0.99x, while the forward PS (based on estimated revenue of $13.7B) is approximately 0.29x, implying the market expects massive revenue growth. Compared to the healthcare plans industry average PS ratio of approximately 1.5x, ALHC trades at a 34% discount, which may reflect its smaller scale and current unprofitability. However, the forward PS suggests a much deeper discount if revenue estimates are realized. Historically, ALHC's PS ratio has ranged from 1.5x to 13.4x over the past five years. The current trailing PS of 0.99x is near the low end of its historical range, suggesting the stock is relatively cheap compared to its own history. This low multiple could indicate that the market is pricing in skepticism about sustained growth or profitability, but it also presents a potential value opportunity if the company can deliver on its revenue trajectory and margin expansion.
PE
-5337.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
81.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple

