Applicad
APP
$515.20
-1.09%
AppLovin Corporation is a vertically integrated advertising technology company operating in the Software - Application industry, providing a demand-side platform (AppDiscovery) for advertisers, a supply-side platform (Max) for publishers, and an exchange to facilitate transactions. The company is a significant player in the mobile ad tech space, distinguished by its full-stack, AI-driven platform, with its AXON 2 ad optimizer being a primary tool for future growth. The current investor narrative is heavily focused on the company's AI transformation and its ability to drive superior monetization and efficiency for advertisers, as evidenced by its recent strong financial performance, though this is juxtaposed against the volatile sentiment in the broader ad-tech and software sector, as seen in the recent sharp price swings and news flow around AI-driven peers like Unity Software.…
APP
Applicad
$515.20
Related headlines
APP 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Applicad's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $669.76 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$669.76
8 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
8
covering this stock
Price Range
$412 - $670
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for AppLovin appears limited in the provided dataset, with only 8 analysts cited for revenue estimates and no explicit target price or recommendation distribution given. The institutional ratings data shows a series of reiterations from major firms (Needham, Oppenheimer, UBS, etc.) in February and March 2026, all maintaining Buy, Outperform, or Overweight ratings, with one Neutral from Goldman Sachs. This pattern suggests a generally bullish but stable analyst sentiment. Without a specific consensus target price, the implied upside cannot be calculated, but the unanimous reaffirmation of positive ratings following what was likely a quarterly report indicates strong institutional support. The wide target price range typical for high-growth, volatile stocks like APP signals high uncertainty and debate around its future execution and market multiple, but the recent lack of downgrades is a positive signal.
APP Technical Analysis
The stock is in a volatile downtrend from its recent highs, with a 1-year price change of +30.53% but a more recent 6-month decline of -25.93%. As of the last close at $496.77, the price is trading at approximately 66.6% of its 52-week range ($320.00 to $745.61), indicating it has retreated significantly from its highs but remains well above its lows, suggesting a period of consolidation after a sharp correction. Recent momentum shows a short-term recovery, with a 1-month gain of +9.53% and a 3-month gain of +8.31%, which contrasts with the negative 6-month performance, signaling a potential attempt at a trend reversal or a bear market rally. The stock exhibits extreme volatility, with a beta of 2.455, meaning it is approximately 145% more volatile than the broader market, which is critical for risk assessment. Key technical levels are clear, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $320 and resistance at the 52-week high of $745.61; a sustained break above the recent recovery highs near $615 would be needed to signal a more durable bullish reversal, while a breakdown below $320 would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend.
Beta
2.46
2.46x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-50.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$320-$746
Price range past year
Annual Return
+39.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | APP Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.8% | +1.5% |
| 3m | +16.4% | +13.4% |
| 6m | -25.8% | +10.9% |
| 1y | +39.0% | +24.5% |
| ytd | -16.7% | +10.0% |
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APP Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is robust and accelerating, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.66 billion representing a 20.8% year-over-year increase, and sequential quarterly revenue has grown from $1.48B (Q1) to $1.66B (Q4) in 2025. The Advertising Segment, at $1.16 billion, is the dominant driver, comprising approximately 87% of total Q4 revenue, while the Apps segment contributed $325 million. Profitability is exceptionally strong, with net income of $1.10 billion in Q4 2025 and a net margin of 66.5%, supported by a gross margin of 88.9%; margins have expanded significantly from the year-ago quarter's net margin of 43.6% and gross margin of 76.7%, indicating powerful operating leverage. The balance sheet and cash flow are healthy, with a current ratio of 3.32 providing ample liquidity, though a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.66 indicates moderate leverage. Most impressively, the company generated trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $3.94 billion, translating to a substantial FCF yield, which provides significant financial flexibility for share repurchases (evident in the cash flow statements) and further investment.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.7B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.20%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.88%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$3.9B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is APP Overvalued?
Given the substantial positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 68.5x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 22.7x, indicating the market expects a substantial increase in earnings. Compared to typical software/application industry averages (often in the 20-30x forward P/E range), AppLovin's forward multiple is roughly in line, but its trailing premium reflects its recent explosive profit growth. Historically, the stock's own valuation has been extremely volatile; its current trailing P/E of 68.5x is below the recent historical high of over 100x seen in mid-2025 but well above the lows from its unprofitable period in 2021-2022. This positioning suggests the market has priced in a significant portion of its growth and margin expansion story, but the large gap between trailing and forward multiples implies expectations for continued high earnings growth to justify the valuation.
PE
68.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -345x~37448x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
52.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
