AeroVironment
AVAV
$148.40
-5.95%
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider specializing in unmanned aircraft systems, tactical missile systems, high-altitude pseudo-satellites, and counter-UAS solutions for the U.S. Department of Defense and allied nations. As a niche leader in drone and counter-drone systems, the company differentiates itself through integrated capabilities across air, land, sea, space, and cyber domains. The current investor narrative centers on a multiyear up cycle driven by surging defense spending, record revenue, and a $500 million Army contract for counter-drone systems, though the stock's high valuation and recent goodwill impairment charge temper enthusiasm.…
AVAV
AeroVironment
$148.40
Related headlines
AVAV 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on AeroVironment's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $192.92 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$192.92
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$119 - $193
Analyst target range
Only one analyst provides estimates, with an average EPS estimate of $5.62 for the current fiscal year, implying a forward P/E of 34.0x based on the current price of $190.89. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly provided, but the institutional ratings show 9 firms with Buy/Outperform ratings and one with Market Perform, indicating a strong bullish consensus. The average target price is not available, but the high EPS estimate of $6.06 and low of $5.27 suggest a range. The implied upside to the average EPS estimate is not calculable without a target price. The wide range of EPS estimates ($5.27 to $6.06) reflects uncertainty around margin recovery and contract timing. The recent upgrade from Raymond James (Market Perform from Underperform) and consistent Buy ratings from multiple firms signal improving sentiment. However, limited analyst coverage (only 1 providing estimates) means the stock may be less efficiently priced, leading to higher volatility and potential mispricing opportunities.
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AVAV Technical Analysis
AeroVironment is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock price declining 22.5% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's 19.1% gain. The current price of $190.89 sits at 45.7% of its 52-week range ($135.20 to $417.86), indicating the stock is closer to its low than its high. This positioning near the lower end of the range suggests the market is pricing in significant headwinds, but also presents a potential value opportunity if fundamentals improve. Short-term momentum shows mixed signals: the 1-month change is -6.6%, while the 3-month change is +3.5%, suggesting a potential bottoming process. The 1-month relative strength of -5.3% versus the S&P 500 indicates underperformance, but the 3-month relative strength of -10.0% shows the stock is still lagging. The divergence between the 1-year downtrend and the recent 3-month uptick could signal a trend reversal attempt, but confirmation is needed. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $135.20, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $417.86. A breakout above resistance would signal a powerful reversal, while a breakdown below support could accelerate losses. With a beta of 1.395, the stock is 39.5% more volatile than the market, meaning it amplifies both upside and downside moves, requiring careful position sizing.
Beta
1.40
1.40x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-66.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$135-$418
Price range past year
Annual Return
-37.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AVAV Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -15.9% | +2.0% |
| 3m | -17.4% | +10.6% |
| 6m | -59.3% | +8.3% |
| 1y | -37.3% | +20.4% |
| ytd | -42.1% | +10.2% |
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AVAV Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has grown dramatically, with the most recent quarter (Q3 FY2026) reporting $408 million, up 143.4% year-over-year from $167.6 million in the prior-year quarter. This acceleration is driven by a surge in defense contracts, including a $500 million Army counter-drone award. However, the company remains unprofitable, with a net loss of $156.6 million in Q3 FY2026, compared to a net loss of $1.8 million a year ago. Gross margin compressed sharply to 17.1% from 37.7% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting a shift in product mix and higher costs. The operating margin was -5.1%, indicating that revenue growth has not yet translated to bottom-line profitability. The balance sheet shows a current ratio of 4.30, indicating strong liquidity, and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19, suggesting minimal leverage. However, free cash flow was negative $19.5 million in the trailing twelve months, and the company has relied on equity issuance (common stock issued $967 million in Q1 FY2026) to fund operations and acquisitions. ROE is -6.0%, reflecting the net loss position.
Quarterly Revenue
$408045000.0B
2026-01
Revenue YoY Growth
+143.41%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
17.05%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-195302000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is AVAV Overvalued?
Since net income is negative (TTM net loss of $156.6 million), the trailing P/E is not meaningful, so we use the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. The trailing P/S is 4.84x, while the forward P/E is 41.3x, implying the market expects a return to profitability. The gap between the negative trailing P/E and positive forward P/E suggests aggressive growth expectations. Compared to the Aerospace & Defense industry average P/S of approximately 2.5x, AeroVironment trades at a 94% premium, reflecting its high revenue growth and defense exposure. This premium may be justified by the 143% YoY revenue growth and large contract backlog, but it also leaves little room for error. Historically, the stock's P/S ratio has ranged from 13.9x to 38.9x over the past two years, and the current 4.84x is near the low end of that range, suggesting the stock is relatively cheap on a sales basis compared to its own history. However, the low P/S reflects the recent earnings miss and goodwill impairment, which have depressed the stock price.
PE
-36.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -820x~33224x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-32.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
