Bristol-Myers Squibb
BMY
$64.10
+0.72%
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) is a global biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines across oncology, cardiovascular, immunology, and neuroscience therapeutic areas, with a particularly strong franchise in immuno-oncology. The company is a large-cap industry leader with a market capitalization of roughly $136 billion and approximately 32,500 employees, deriving close to 70% of total sales from the United States, a higher domestic concentration than most of its Big Pharma peers. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to offset looming patent cliffs — most notably for its blockbuster blood thinner Eliquis and cancer drug Opdivo — through a portfolio of newer growth brands such as Camzyos, Reblozyl, Breyanzi, and Cobenfy, alongside a deep pipeline and aggressive business development. Recent headlines highlight Camzyos' long-term efficacy in cardiac myosin inhibition and competitive threats in psoriasis from Takeda's AI-developed zasocitinib, underscoring the dual themes of pipeline-driven growth and intensifying competition that dominate the debate around BMY today.…
BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb
$64.10
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy BMY Today?
We assign a Hold rating on BMY. The core thesis is that the stock is fairly valued after its recent rally, with the market already pricing in much of the near-term earnings growth implied by the forward PE of 9.70x. The analyst consensus of 'Buy' with an average target of $66.42 offers only 4.4% upside, suggesting limited margin of safety. While the 4.58% dividend yield and low beta make it a defensive income play, the lack of a clear catalyst for multiple expansion keeps us on the sidelines.
The supporting evidence for a Hold is mixed. On the positive side, free cash flow of $11.9 billion comfortably covers the dividend, and the forward PE of 9.70x is attractive if earnings grow as expected. However, revenue growth of only 2.57% YoY is concerning, and the debt-to-equity ratio of 2.55 is high. The net margin of 14.6% and operating margin of 28.5% are solid but not exceptional for big pharma. The stock's 33.87% one-year gain has already captured much of the recovery story, and the relative strength versus the S&P 500 over the past year is 17.65 percentage points, indicating outperformance that may not repeat.
The biggest risks that could invalidate a more bullish thesis include a faster-than-expected erosion of Eliquis and Opdivo sales, pipeline failures, and competitive pressures from Takeda and Cytokinetics. We would upgrade to Buy if the forward PE compresses below 8x or if revenue growth accelerates above 5% YoY. We would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth turns negative or if the dividend payout ratio exceeds 80%. Relative to its history and peers, BMY appears fairly valued; the stock is not expensive on forward earnings, but the growth outlook justifies a discount.
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BMY 12-Month Price Forecast
BMY presents a balanced risk/reward profile. The stock is cheap on forward earnings, but the low growth rate and patent cliff create uncertainty. The dividend yield of 4.58% and low beta make it a defensive holding, but the lack of near-term catalysts limits upside. We would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth accelerates above 5% or if pipeline data is strongly positive; we would downgrade to bearish if competitive threats intensify or if the dividend appears at risk.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Bristol-Myers Squibb's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $66.42 and implied upside of +3.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$66.42
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+3.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$40 - $80
Analyst target range
BMY is covered by 24 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of "Buy" (recommendation mean of 2.46 on a scale where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell). The average target price is $66.42, which implies a modest upside of approximately 4.4% from the current price of $63.64. The consensus leans moderately bullish, but the small upside suggests that much of the optimism is already reflected in the stock price, especially after the 33.87% one-year gain. The estimated EPS average of $4.9971 for the forward year, combined with the forward PE of 9.70x, indicates that analysts expect solid earnings growth but are not projecting explosive upside.
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Bulls vs Bears: BMY Investment Factors
The bull case for BMY rests on its deeply discounted forward valuation (9.70x forward PE), robust free cash flow ($11.9 billion TTM), and a pipeline of newer drugs that are scaling rapidly. The bear case centers on anemic revenue growth (2.57% YoY), the looming patent cliff for Eliquis and Opdivo, and competitive threats that could undermine key franchises. Currently, the bear evidence appears slightly stronger because the growth rate is too low to offset eventual patent losses, and the stock's rally has already captured much of the near-term optimism, leaving limited analyst upside. The single most important tension is whether the newer growth brands and pipeline can accelerate revenue growth to mid-single digits or higher before the patent cliff hits; if they can, the stock is undervalued; if not, the dividend and earnings could be at risk.
Bullish
- Deeply discounted forward earnings multiple: BMY trades at a forward PE of just 9.70x versus a trailing PE of 15.59x, implying analysts expect EPS to grow roughly 38% in the coming year. This is a steep discount to the broader market and to many large-cap pharma peers, providing a valuation cushion if earnings materialize.
- Strong free cash flow generation: The company generated $11.908 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, which comfortably covers its dividend and funds pipeline investment. This cash flow strength supports the 4.58% dividend yield and provides flexibility for business development.
- New growth brands scaling rapidly: Camzyos reached $314 million in quarterly sales, Breyanzi $411 million, and Reblozyl $555 million, all growing at double-digit rates. These newer products are gradually offsetting the eventual erosion of legacy franchises like Eliquis and Opdivo.
- Analyst consensus remains bullish: With 24 analysts covering the stock, the consensus recommendation is 'Buy' (mean 2.46) and the average target price of $66.42 implies about 4.4% upside from the current $63.64. The high target of $80 suggests meaningful upside if pipeline catalysts deliver.
Bearish
- Sluggish top-line growth: Revenue grew only 2.57% year-over-year in Q1 2026 to $11.489 billion, a pace that may not be sufficient to offset upcoming patent expirations. Sequential revenue has been essentially flat around $12 billion for several quarters, indicating limited momentum.
- Patent cliff concentration risk: Eliquis ($4.137 billion) and Opdivo ($2.146 billion) together represent over half of quarterly revenue, and both face eventual generic or biosimilar competition. The loss of exclusivity for these blockbusters could create a significant revenue hole that newer products may struggle to fill.
- High leverage and payout ratio: The debt-to-equity ratio of 2.55 is elevated for a large-cap pharmaceutical company, and the payout ratio of 71.5% leaves limited room for error. If earnings decline due to patent losses, the dividend could come under pressure.
- Competitive threats to key franchises: Takeda's AI-developed psoriasis drug zasocitinib demonstrated superior skin clearance versus BMY's established treatment in a head-to-head trial, potentially eroding a multi-billion-dollar market opportunity. Cytokinetics' aficamten (Myqorzo) also threatens Camzyos in the HCM space.
BMY Technical Analysis
BMY is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 33.87% over the trailing twelve months and 19.04% year-to-date, decisively outperforming the S&P 500's 16.22% and 12.08% gains over the same periods. At a current price of $63.64, the shares are trading at approximately 92.7% of their 52-week range (52-week low of $42.52 and high of $68.64), placing them near the upper end of their annual band. This positioning signals strong momentum and market confidence, though it also raises the risk of overextension and profit-taking, particularly given the stock's relatively modest beta of 0.227, which implies far lower volatility than the broader market and suggests the rally has been steady rather than speculative.
Beta
0.23
0.23x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-13.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$43-$69
Price range past year
Annual Return
+38.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | BMY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.4% | -2.0% |
| 3m | +14.6% | +1.4% |
| 6m | +8.0% | +15.0% |
| 1y | +38.7% | +15.7% |
| ytd | +19.9% | +11.6% |
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BMY Fundamental Analysis
BMY's revenue trajectory is showing modest but positive growth, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026, ending March 31, 2026) delivering $11.489 billion in revenue, up 2.57% year-over-year from $11.201 billion in Q1 2025. The multi-quarter trend reveals sequential stability: Q4 2025 revenue was $12.502 billion, Q3 2025 was $12.222 billion, and Q2 2025 was $12.269 billion, indicating that growth is steady but not accelerating. Segment data highlights the concentration risk and growth drivers: Eliquis at $4.137 billion and Opdivo at $2.146 billion dominate the portfolio, while newer brands like Breyanzi ($411 million), Camzyos ($314 million), and Reblozyl ($555 million) are growing but remain far smaller. The investment case hinges on whether these growth brands and pipeline assets can offset the eventual erosion of legacy franchises, and the current 2.57% YoY growth suggests the transition is underway but not yet fully compensating.
Quarterly Revenue
$11.5B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+2.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
70.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$11.9B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is BMY Overvalued?
Because BMY is profitable with positive net income of $2.678 billion in the most recent quarter, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 15.59x, while the forward PE is significantly lower at 9.70x, implying the market expects substantial earnings growth in the coming year. This large gap between trailing and forward multiples — a 37.8% decline — suggests that analysts anticipate EPS to rise sharply, likely driven by margin expansion and revenue growth from newer products. The PEG ratio of -0.087 is negative due to the trailing earnings base, making it less useful, but the forward PE of 9.70x is notably low for a large-cap pharmaceutical company.
PE
15.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 10x~36x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
BMY faces significant financial and operational risks. The debt-to-equity ratio of 2.55 is high for a large-cap pharmaceutical company, and with a payout ratio of 71.5%, the dividend consumes a substantial portion of earnings, leaving little buffer if earnings decline. Revenue is highly concentrated in two products—Eliquis and Opdivo—which together account for over half of quarterly sales, and both face patent expirations in the coming years. The company's growth rate of 2.57% year-over-year is insufficient to offset the eventual loss of these revenue streams, and any pipeline setback could exacerbate the situation. Additionally, the current ratio of 1.26 indicates adequate but not strong short-term liquidity, and the negative PEG ratio (-0.087) reflects the market's uncertainty about future earnings growth.
Market and competitive risks are also prominent. BMY trades at a forward PE of 9.70x, which is low relative to the broader market, but the stock has already rallied 33.87% over the past year and is trading near the top of its 52-week range (92.7% of the range). This leaves limited room for multiple expansion and increases vulnerability to profit-taking. The beta of 0.227 suggests low volatility, but that also means the stock may not rally as strongly in a bull market. Competitive threats are intensifying: Takeda's zasocitinib showed superior efficacy in psoriasis, and Cytokinetics' aficamten could challenge Camzyos in HCM. These developments could erode BMY's market share in key therapeutic areas. Regulatory and macro risks, such as drug pricing reforms, also loom.
In a worst-case scenario, BMY could face a perfect storm of patent expirations, pipeline failures, and competitive losses. If Eliquis and Opdivo lose exclusivity faster than expected and newer drugs fail to compensate, revenue could decline significantly, pressuring earnings and the dividend. The 52-week low of $42.52 represents a 33.2% decline from the current price of $63.64, and the analyst low target of $40 implies a 37.1% downside. Such a scenario could unfold if key pipeline assets disappoint in clinical trials or if generic competition arrives earlier than anticipated. Investors could lose over a third of their capital in this adverse scenario.
FAQ
The most severe risk is the patent cliff: Eliquis and Opdivo account for over half of revenue and face eventual generic competition, which could cause a significant revenue decline. Financial risk is elevated with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.55 and a payout ratio of 71.5%, leaving little room for earnings misses. Competitive risks are intensifying, as Takeda's zasocitinib showed superior efficacy in psoriasis and Cytokinetics' aficamten threatens Camzyos in HCM. Macro and regulatory risks include drug pricing reforms and currency fluctuations. Additionally, the stock is trading near the top of its 52-week range, so any negative news could trigger profit-taking. Ranked by severity: patent cliff, competitive threats, financial leverage, and valuation compression.
Our 12-month forecast for BMY has three scenarios. The base case (55% probability) targets $64-$68, assuming steady single-digit revenue growth and no major surprises. The bull case (25% probability) targets $75-$80, driven by pipeline successes and faster new-product adoption. The bear case (20% probability) targets $40-$45, if competitive threats and patent losses accelerate. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the key assumption that revenue growth remains in the 2-4% range and the dividend is maintained. The analyst average target of $66.42 aligns with our base case. We expect the stock to trade in a range, with upside limited unless pipeline catalysts emerge.
BMY appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued on forward earnings, but the market is pricing in low growth expectations. The forward PE of 9.70x is well below the trailing PE of 15.59x, indicating analysts expect a 38% increase in EPS next year. The price-to-sales ratio of 2.28 and EV/EBITDA of 9.65 are in line with large-cap pharma peers. However, the PEG ratio is negative due to the trailing earnings base, making it less useful. Compared to its own history, the stock has re-rated from its 52-week low of $42.52 but still trades at a discount to the broader market. The market seems to expect modest growth and is not paying a premium for the pipeline. If the company can accelerate revenue growth to mid-single digits, the stock could be undervalued; otherwise, it is fairly valued.
BMY offers a mixed risk/reward profile. On the positive side, it trades at a forward PE of 9.70x, pays a 4.58% dividend yield, and generates $11.9 billion in free cash flow, providing a margin of safety. However, revenue growth is only 2.57% year-over-year, and the average analyst target of $66.42 implies just 4.4% upside from the current $63.64. The biggest downside risk is the patent cliff for Eliquis and Opdivo, which could lead to a 33% decline to the 52-week low of $42.52. For income-focused investors with a long horizon, BMY can be a good buy for its dividend and defensive characteristics. For growth investors, the lack of top-line momentum makes it less attractive. We rate it a Hold, suggesting investors wait for a better entry point or clearer pipeline catalysts.
BMY is more suitable for long-term investment, particularly for income-focused investors. The stock has a low beta of 0.227, indicating low volatility, and pays a reliable 4.58% dividend yield, which is attractive for compounding over time. However, the company faces a patent cliff that could pressure earnings in the next 3-5 years, so long-term investors should monitor pipeline progress closely. Short-term trading is less appealing due to the lack of near-term catalysts and the stock's low beta, which limits price swings. A suggested minimum holding period is 3-5 years to allow the pipeline to mature and offset patent losses. For those seeking income, holding through the cycle may be appropriate, but growth-oriented investors should look elsewhere.
