Church & Dwight
CHD
$107.23
+1.16%
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. is a consumer defensive household and personal products company best known as the world's leading producer of baking soda, a legacy position it has parlayed into a diversified portfolio spanning laundry (OxiClean), cat litter, oral care, deodorant, nasal care (TheraBreath), dry shampoo (Batiste), and, following the fiscal 2025 acquisition, hand sanitizer (Touchland). The company's competitive identity is that of a disciplined, brand-accretive consolidator rather than a pure organic grower: Arm & Hammer, Batiste, OxiClean, Hero, and TheraBreath together account for roughly 70% of sales and profits, with about 80% of revenue generated in the U.S., giving it a defensive, cash-generative profile distinct from more globally exposed staples peers. The current investor narrative centers on whether bolt-on M&A (Touchland) and premiumization in personal care can reaccelerate a business whose most recent quarterly revenue grew only 1.57% year over year, while management simultaneously absorbs acquisition-related costs and elevated selling and marketing spend. Bulls point to margin recovery, a 21% one-year total return, and a beta of just 0.48 as evidence of a low-volatility compounder; bears highlight decelerating top-line growth, a forward PE near 26x, and a mixed analyst tape with several Neutral and one Underweight rating as reasons for caution.…
CHD
Church & Dwight
$107.23
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CHD Today?
Rating: Hold. The core thesis is that Church & Dwight is a high-quality, defensively positioned staples compounder whose shares are now fully valued after a 21.31% one-year and 27.29% YTD run, with the analyst consensus 'buy' (mean 2.24) and average target of $104.63 implying roughly -0.5% downside from the $105.19 price. The stock offers earnings quality and low volatility (beta 0.482) but limited near-term upside.
Supporting evidence: the stock trades at 26.08x forward and 27.58x trailing earnings, a premium to the staples median despite revenue growth of only 1.57% in Q2 2026; however, gross margin improved to 45.35% from 42.95% a year earlier, operating margin held at 18.07%, and trailing free cash flow of $1.115 billion provides a ~5.5% FCF yield that comfortably covers the 1.41% dividend (payout ratio 38.98%). The PEG of 1.01 suggests the multiple is fair relative to expected growth, and the tight consensus EPS range of $4.77-$4.89 signals confidence in near-term earnings. The high target of $115 implies 9.3% upside if Touchland integration and margin expansion succeed, while the low target of $78 implies 26% downside.
Key risks that could invalidate the thesis: a de-rating toward the low-20s PE band if revenue growth decelerates below 1%, margin compression from elevated marketing and acquisition costs, and a divided analyst tape that includes an Underweight rating. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock pulls back toward the $94-$96 support zone (roughly 9-10% downside) or if gross margin sustainably exceeds 46% with revenue growth accelerating above 3%; it would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth turns negative or if the forward PE expands above 30x without commensurate earnings growth. Verdict: fairly valued relative to its own history (trailing PE of 27.58x sits in the middle-to-lower portion of its 21.96x-39.42x multi-year band) and at a premium to peers, leaving the risk/reward balanced.
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CHD 12-Month Price Forecast
CHD is a high-quality defensive compounder with a beta of 0.482, improving gross margins (45.35% in Q2 2026), and strong free cash flow ($1.115 billion TTM, ~5.5% yield), but the stock is fully valued after a 27.29% YTD run. The 26.08x forward PE leaves little room for error given 1.57% revenue growth, and the analyst consensus target of $104.63 implies no upside, with a divided tape including an Underweight rating. The balanced risk/reward and wide target dispersion support a neutral stance with medium confidence. I would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth accelerates above 3% with gross margin above 46%, or if the stock pulls back toward the $94-$96 support zone; I would downgrade to bearish if revenue growth turns negative or if the forward PE expands above 30x without earnings support.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Church & Dwight's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $104.89 and implied upside of -2.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$104.89
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-2.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$78 - $120
Analyst target range
Coverage is broad, with 19 analysts and a consensus recommendation of "buy" (mean rating 2.24 on a scale where lower is more bullish), but the tone is more cautious than the headline suggests: the institutional ratings tape shows a cluster of Neutral/Hold stances from UBS, Citigroup, TD Cowen, and JP Morgan, an Overweight from Wells Fargo and Outperform from RBC Capital, and an Underweight from Barclays, with no upgrades or downgrades in the recent actions — a stable but divided house. The average target price of $104.63 sits essentially at the current $105.19 price, implying roughly -0.5% downside, meaning the consensus sees the stock as fully valued after its 21% one-year run; the bullish consensus label is therefore a statement about business quality rather than near-term price upside. The target range of $78.00 to $115.00 is wide (a 47% spread from low to high), signaling genuine disagreement about the growth trajectory. The $115 high target implies roughly 9.3% upside and likely assumes successful Touchland integration, gross margin expansion toward the high-40s, and multiple maintenance near 28x-30x forward earnings; the $78 low target implies about 26% downside and likely prices in margin compression from elevated marketing spend, weak international demand, or a de-rating toward the low-20s PE band. Consensus EPS of $4.82 (range $4.77-$4.89, a tight 2.5% spread) and revenue of $7.32 billion (range $7.26-$7.40 billion) indicate strong conviction on near-term numbers but much less on the multiple — the debate is about valuation, not earnings. With the average target at parity and a wide dispersion, the risk/reward is balanced; the stock's low beta and defensive profile argue for holding through volatility, but incremental upside likely requires a catalyst such as an earnings beat or accretive deal.
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Bulls vs Bears: CHD Investment Factors
The bull case rests on CHD's defensive, low-beta profile (0.482), improving gross margins (45.35% in Q2 2026 vs. 42.95% a year ago), strong free cash flow ($1.115 billion TTM, ~5.5% yield), and technical momentum near 52-week highs with 27.29% YTD gains. The bear case centers on decelerating revenue growth (1.57% YoY), a premium 26.08x forward PE for a low-single-digit grower, an average analyst target ($104.63) that implies no upside, and a divided analyst tape including an Underweight rating. On balance, the bear evidence on valuation and growth is more concrete and quantifiable, while the bull case relies on quality and defensiveness rather than near-term upside; the stock appears fully valued after its run. The single most important tension is whether bolt-on M&A (Touchland) and premiumization in personal care can reaccelerate revenue growth above the current 1.57% pace—if they do, the premium multiple is justified; if they do not, a de-rating toward the low-20s PE band is the key risk.
Bullish
- Defensive low-beta compounder: CHD's beta of 0.482 is less than half the market's, and the stock has delivered a 21.31% one-year total return with a maximum drawdown of only -13.81%. In a tape where SPY is down 1.02% over the past month, CHD has gained 9.55%, producing +10.57 points of relative strength, evidence it is being used as a defensive rotation destination.
- Gross margin recovery underway: Q2 2026 gross margin rose to 45.35% from 42.95% in Q2 2025, a 240-basis-point improvement, while operating margin held at 18.07% and net margin reached 13.25%. The trailing gross margin of 44.73% confirms stabilization in the mid-40s after the impairment-driven Q3 2024 loss quarter, supporting the earnings recovery narrative.
- Cash generation supports dividend and M&A: Trailing free cash flow of $1.115 billion against a $20.35 billion market cap equates to a roughly 5.5% FCF yield, comfortably covering the $72.9 million quarterly dividend (payout ratio 38.98%) and the $160.7 million of Q2 acquisition outlays. This self-funding model allows bolt-on M&A like Touchland without straining the balance sheet, where debt-to-equity is a modest 0.55.
- Analyst consensus still positive: Nineteen analysts carry a consensus 'buy' rating (mean 2.24), with an average target of $104.63 and a high target of $115 implying 9.3% upside. The tight EPS estimate range of $4.77-$4.89 (2.5% spread) signals strong conviction in near-term earnings, and the PEG of 1.01 suggests the 26.08x forward PE is fair relative to expected growth.
Bearish
- Decelerating top-line growth: Q2 2026 revenue of $1.53 billion grew only 1.57% year over year, and the sequential path ($1.469B in Q1 2026, $1.644B in Q4 2025, $1.586B in Q3 2025) shows low-single-digit expansion rather than acceleration. Consensus revenue of $7.32 billion implies continued modest growth, leaving the thesis dependent on acquired growth and mix shift rather than organic momentum.
- Premium valuation for low growth: At 27.58x trailing and 26.08x forward earnings, CHD trades at a premium to the broader staples median (typically high-teens to low-20s) despite growing revenue only 1.57%. The 3.28x PS and 17.04x EV/EBITDA multiples leave little room for error, and the 1.41% dividend yield is below what income-oriented staples investors typically demand.
- Analyst targets imply no upside: The average target price of $104.63 sits essentially at the current $105.19 price, implying roughly -0.5% downside after the 21% one-year run. The target range of $78.00-$115.00 is a wide 47% spread, and the ratings tape includes Neutral/Hold stances from UBS, Citigroup, TD Cowen, and JP Morgan plus an Underweight from Barclays, signaling a divided house.
- Recent session pullback on volume: The most recent session saw a -3.37% pullback from $108.86 to $105.19 on volume of roughly 1.97 million shares, a potential short-term exhaustion gap after the run to highs. A failure at the $108.93 resistance and breakdown below the $94-$96 support zone would signal a failed breakout and shift the trend to neutral.
CHD Technical Analysis
CHD is in a sustained, orderly uptrend: the stock is up 21.31% over the past year and 27.29% year to date, and at $105.19 it sits at roughly 96.5% of its 52-week range of $81.33 to $108.93. That positioning near the top of the range signals persistent accumulation and momentum rather than overextension, particularly given the stock's low beta of 0.482, which implies moves of this magnitude represent a meaningful re-rating rather than speculative froth. The 52-week high of $108.93 was set just one session before the latest close, so the stock is effectively testing all-time-range resistance. Short-term momentum is accelerating and confirms the longer-term trend: the stock gained 9.55% over the past month and 7.73% over three months, with the one-month figure outpacing both the three-month and six-month (10.70%) gains. Relative strength versus SPY is strongly positive across every window — +10.57 points over one month, +4.88 over three months, and +15.84 year to date — against a flat-to-down SPY over the past month (-1.02%), indicating CHD is being bought as a defensive rotation destination. The lone caution flag is the most recent session, a -3.37% pullback from $108.86 to $105.19 on volume of roughly 1.97 million shares, which could mark a short-term exhaustion gap after the run to highs. Key technical levels are clear: support sits at the 52-week low of $81.33, with intermediate support likely in the $94-$96 zone where the stock consolidated in September, while resistance is the $108.93 high. A decisive breakout above $108.93 would confirm the uptrend and likely invite momentum buyers, whereas a failure and breakdown below $94 would signal a failed breakout and shift the trend to neutral; the maximum drawdown of -13.81% over the period underscores that even this low-beta name can deliver double-digit peak-to-trough declines.
Beta
0.48
0.48x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-13.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$81-$111
Price range past year
Annual Return
+31.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CHD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +13.8% | -0.9% |
| 3m | +8.5% | +1.2% |
| 6m | +11.7% | +4.9% |
| 1y | +31.1% | +11.2% |
| ytd | +29.8% | +10.8% |
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CHD Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is modest and decelerating at the headline level: Q2 2026 revenue of $1.53 billion grew just 1.57% year over year versus $1.506 billion in Q2 2025, and the sequential path ($1.469B in Q1 2026, $1.644B in Q4 2025, $1.586B in Q3 2025) shows a business growing in the low single digits rather than accelerating. Segment data for the quarter shows Consumer Domestic at $1.156 billion (roughly 75.5% of the $1.531 billion total), Consumer International at $297.5 million (~19.4%), and Specialty Products at $76.7 million (~5.0%), confirming that the domestic household business is the growth engine and the international arm the smaller swing factor. The investment case therefore hinges less on organic acceleration and more on acquired growth (Touchland) and mix shift toward higher-margin personal care, with consensus revenue of $7.32 billion implying continued low-single-digit expansion. Profitability is solid and improving: Q2 2026 net income was $202.8 million on a 13.25% net margin, with gross margin of 45.35% (up from 42.95% in Q2 2025) and operating margin of 18.07%, while the trailing gross margin of 44.73% and net margin of 11.88% reflect the drag from the seasonally weaker Q4 2025 (net margin 8.73%). The gross margin trajectory is the key positive — 45.35% in Q2 2026 versus 46.38% in Q1 2026 and 45.85% in Q4 2025 — showing stabilization in the mid-40s after the 2024 impairment-driven loss quarter (Q3 2024 net loss of $75.1 million), and the 17.37% operating margin is consistent with a well-run staples franchise. Balance sheet and cash flow are healthy but not fortress-like: debt-to-equity is 0.55, the current ratio is 1.07 (tight but adequate), ROE is 18.41% and ROA 7.87%, and trailing free cash flow is $1.115 billion against a $20.35 billion market cap, a roughly 5.5% FCF yield. Quarterly FCF has been volatile ($256.9 million in Q2 2026, $142.9 million in Q1 2026, $308.2 million in Q4 2025) due to working capital swings and $160.7 million of Q2 acquisition outlays, but the company comfortably funds its $72.9 million quarterly dividend (payout ratio 38.98%, yield 1.41%) and modest capex ($29.9 million in Q2) from internal cash generation.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.5B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
45.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CHD Overvalued?
Because Church & Dwight is profitable (Q2 2026 net income of $202.8 million; trailing EPS positive), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at 27.58x trailing earnings and 26.08x forward earnings, a modest 5.4% compression that implies the market expects only modest earnings growth — consistent with the consensus EPS estimate of $4.82 and a PEG of 1.01, which suggests the multiple is roughly fair relative to expected growth rather than pricing in acceleration. On the other hand, the 3.28x PS ratio and 17.04x EV/EBITDA sit alongside a 5.08x P/B and 16.74x P/CF, a mixed picture that reflects the asset-light but acquisition-heavy nature of the model. Peer comparison is constrained by the absence of a supplied industry-average multiple, but contextually a 26x forward PE for a low-single-digit grower with a 0.48 beta is a premium to the broader staples median (typically high-teens to low-20s) and is justified primarily by earnings quality, brand durability, and defensive characteristics rather than growth; the 1.41% dividend yield and 38.98% payout ratio are below what income-oriented staples investors typically demand. Against its own history, the current 27.58x trailing PE sits in the middle-to-lower portion of its multi-year band: historical quarterly PE readings ranged from about 21.96x (Q3 2021) to 39.42x (Q4 2021), with recent quarters at 28.16x (Q2 2026), 25.64x (Q1 2026), and 34.94x (Q4 2025), while the PS ratio of 3.28x is far below the 12x-18x historical price/sales readings reported in the ratio history (which appear to use a different share-count basis) and should be treated cautiously. Net, the stock is neither cheap nor stretched on its own history — the market is pricing in steady execution, and further multiple expansion likely requires either margin upside or an M&A-driven growth surprise.
PE
27.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 22x~38x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are moderate but real. Revenue growth of just 1.57% year over year in Q2 2026 leaves little cushion, and the business derives roughly 75.5% of sales from Consumer Domestic ($1.156 billion of $1.531 billion), creating concentration in the U.S. household segment while international (19.4%) and specialty (5.0%) remain smaller swing factors. The current ratio of 1.07 is tight, and quarterly free cash flow has been volatile ($256.9 million in Q2 2026, $142.9 million in Q1 2026, $308.2 million in Q4 2025) due to working capital swings and $160.7 million of acquisition outlays, while selling and marketing spend rose to $165.3 million from $157.1 million a year earlier. Debt-to-equity of 0.55 is manageable, but the acquisition-heavy model means integration execution for Touchland is a live operational risk.
Market and competitive risks center on valuation compression. At 26.08x forward earnings and 27.58x trailing, CHD trades at a premium to the staples median (high-teens to low-20s) despite 1.57% revenue growth, and the PEG of 1.01 offers only fair compensation. The average analyst target of $104.63 implies -0.5% downside, and the wide $78-$115 range (47% spread) reflects genuine disagreement; an Underweight rating from Barclays and Neutral stances from UBS, Citigroup, TD Cowen, and JP Morgan highlight the risk of downgrades. With a beta of 0.482, CHD is less exposed to broad market swings, but sector rotation out of defensives—evidenced by SPY's -1.02% one-month return while CHD gained 9.55%—could reverse if growth-oriented sectors regain leadership, and competitive pressure in household products could limit pricing power.
Worst-case scenario: a combination of revenue growth stalling below 1%, gross margin slipping back toward the 42.95% level of Q2 2025 as marketing and integration costs rise, and a multiple de-rating toward the low-20s PE band. Applying a 22x multiple to the $4.82 consensus EPS would imply a price near $106, but a more severe de-rating to the $78 analyst low target represents roughly 26% downside from $105.19. The 52-week low of $81.33 implies about 22.7% downside, and the historical maximum drawdown of -13.81% shows even this low-beta name can deliver double-digit peak-to-trough declines; in a genuine earnings miss scenario, an investor could lose 23-26% from current levels.
FAQ
The most severe risk is valuation compression: at 26.08x forward earnings for a 1.57% grower, a de-rating toward the low-20s PE band could take the stock toward the $78 analyst low target, roughly 26% downside. Financial risk is moderate, with a current ratio of 1.07 and volatile quarterly free cash flow ($142.9 million in Q1 2026 vs. $308.2 million in Q4 2025) due to acquisition outlays and working capital swings. Competitive and operational risk centers on Touchland integration and elevated marketing spend ($165.3 million in Q2 2026), which could pressure margins if the premium personal-care mix shift disappoints. Macro and sentiment risk includes sector rotation out of defensives—despite the low 0.482 beta, a shift back toward growth sectors could reverse CHD's recent relative strength (+10.57 points over one month).
The 12-month forecast has three scenarios: a base case (50% probability) of $100-$108, assuming low-single-digit revenue growth and a stable 26x-28x multiple around the $104.63 analyst average; a bull case (25% probability) of $112-$115, assuming Touchland integration success, gross margin toward the high-40s, and a 28x-30x multiple; and a bear case (25% probability) of $78-$85, assuming revenue stalls below 1%, margin compression, and a de-rating toward the low-20s PE band. The base case is most likely, with the key assumption being that consensus EPS of $4.82 and revenue of $7.32 billion are met without multiple expansion. The wide $78-$115 analyst target range reflects genuine disagreement about the growth trajectory.
CHD appears fairly valued to slightly overvalued. At 27.58x trailing and 26.08x forward earnings, the stock trades at a premium to the broader staples median (typically high-teens to low-20s), justified by earnings quality and defensiveness but not by growth, given revenue expansion of only 1.57%. The PEG of 1.01 suggests the multiple is roughly fair relative to expected growth, and the 3.28x PS and 17.04x EV/EBITDA are mixed. Against its own history, the trailing PE sits in the middle-to-lower portion of its 21.96x-39.42x multi-year band, so the stock is not stretched versus its past. The market is pricing in steady execution and modest earnings growth, with further multiple expansion requiring margin upside or an M&A-driven growth surprise.
From a risk/reward perspective, CHD offers limited near-term upside: the average analyst target of $104.63 is essentially at the current $105.19 price, implying roughly -0.5% downside, while the high target of $115 implies 9.3% upside and the low target of $78 implies 26% downside. The valuation is full at 26.08x forward earnings for a business growing revenue only 1.57%, though the 0.482 beta and 5.5% FCF yield provide defensive support. The biggest downside risk is a de-rating toward the low-20s PE band if growth stalls, which could take the stock toward the $81.33 52-week low. It is a reasonable buy for conservative, long-term investors seeking low-volatility staples exposure, particularly on a pullback toward the $94-$96 support zone, but offers little margin of safety at current levels.
CHD is better suited for long-term holding than short-term trading. Its low beta of 0.482, defensive staples profile, and 1.41% dividend yield (payout ratio 38.98%) make it a stable compounder, but the stock is near its 52-week high of $108.93 and fully valued at 26.08x forward earnings, limiting near-term upside. The recent -3.37% single-session pullback on 1.97 million shares shows short-term volatility can be sharp even in low-beta names, and the maximum drawdown of -13.81% underscores peak-to-trough risk. Earnings visibility is high given the tight consensus EPS range of $4.77-$4.89, supporting a suggested minimum holding period of 2-3 years to capture dividend compounding and any M&A-driven growth. Short-term traders should watch the $108.93 resistance and $94-$96 support levels.