Comcast
CMCSA
$23.22
+4.27%
Comcast operates a vertically integrated media and connectivity empire built around three pillars: a core US cable business providing broadband, video, and voice services across roughly half of the country's homes and businesses, the NBCUniversal media and entertainment portfolio (NBC network, Bravo, Peacock, Universal Studios, and theme parks), and Sky, a leading pay-TV provider in the UK and Italy. The company is a legacy market leader in residential broadband with unmatched scale and network infrastructure, but its identity is increasingly defined by the tension between a mature, cash-generative connectivity franchise and a capital-intensive streaming and content business fighting for relevance against pure-play disruptors. The current investor narrative centers on broadband subscriber attrition amid intensifying fixed wireless and fiber competition, the strategic decision to spin off NBCUniversal's cable networks (following the earlier separation of CNBC, MSNBC, and USA), and whether Peacock can reach durable profitability. Recent Q3 results, which featured a revenue miss alongside broadband subscriber losses despite an EPS beat, have sharpened the debate over whether Comcast is a deep-value cash machine or a structurally declining asset, with the stock down sharply year-to-date and sentiment firmly cautious.…
CMCSA
Comcast
$23.22
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CMCSA Today?
Rating: Hold. The core thesis is that CMCSA is a deep-value cash machine trading at 5.2x earnings with a 20% FCF yield, but broadband subscriber losses and revenue decline (-1.23% YoY) create a value-trap risk that justifies waiting for stabilization. The analyst consensus is 'hold' with a mean rating of 2.63 and an average target of $28.38, implying +25.1% upside, but recent downgrades (KeyBanc to Underweight) and a wide target range of $17-$42 reflect low conviction.
Supporting evidence: (1) Valuation is extremely cheap at 5.18x trailing PE and 6.40x forward PE, versus historical levels of 12-19x and sector peers in the mid-teens; (2) FCF yield of ~20% ($20.44 billion TTM FCF on $101.8 billion market cap) comfortably covers the 4.81% dividend (24.5% payout) and buybacks; (3) Profitability remains solid with 71.7% gross margin and 16.7% operating margin, though compressing; (4) Analyst average target of $28.38 offers 25.1% upside, and the stock is only 10.8% above its 52-week low, limiting downside. However, revenue growth is negative and broadband trends are deteriorating.
Risks and conditions: The biggest risks are continued broadband subscriber losses, failure of Peacock to reach profitability, and a value-trap outcome where the low multiple persists. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if broadband subscriber trends stabilize (e.g., losses narrow to under 100k per quarter) or if the NBCUniversal spinoff is announced with a value-accretive structure, and would downgrade to Sell if revenue decline accelerates beyond -3% YoY or if operating margins fall below 15%. Valuation verdict: the stock is deeply undervalued relative to its own history and peers, but the discount is partly justified by secular decline; fair value is likely in the $25-28 range, implying modest upside.
Sign up to view all
CMCSA 12-Month Price Forecast
CMCSA presents a classic deep-value opportunity with significant risks. The stock trades at a fraction of historical multiples (5.2x PE vs. 12-19x historically) and offers a ~20% FCF yield, but negative revenue growth and broadband subscriber losses justify caution. The analyst consensus is neutral with a 25% upside target, but the wide dispersion ($17-$42) and recent downgrades reflect uncertainty. We would upgrade to bullish if broadband subscriber trends inflect positively or if the NBCUniversal spinoff is announced with a compelling valuation, and downgrade to bearish if revenue decline accelerates or margins fall below 15%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Comcast's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $27.98 and implied upside of +20.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$27.98
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+20.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $42
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust with 22 analysts, but sentiment is decidedly neutral-to-cautious: the consensus recommendation is "hold" with a recommendation mean of 2.63 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is strong sell). The average target price of $28.38 implies roughly +25.1% upside from the current $22.69, a meaningful gap that reflects analysts' view that the selloff has overshot fundamentals even as they stop short of a bullish call. The consensus leans neutral rather than bearish, suggesting the Street sees value but lacks a near-term catalyst to justify upgrading.
The target range is exceptionally wide, from a low of $17.00 to a high of $42.00 — a spread of 147% around the average, signaling high uncertainty and divergent views on Comcast's future. The $42 high target likely assumes successful execution on the NBCUniversal spinoff, Peacock profitability, broadband stabilization, and multiple re-rating toward historical norms, while the $17 low target prices in continued subscriber losses, margin compression, and a value-trap outcome. Recent institutional actions skew cautious: KeyBanc downgraded to Underweight from Sector Weight on September 24, 2026, while Wells Fargo maintained Underweight and Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and UBS stayed at Equal Weight/Neutral; only Citigroup, BofA, and Rosenblatt remain at Buy. The pattern of downgrades and neutral stances, combined with the wide target dispersion, indicates limited conviction and suggests the stock may remain range-bound until broadband trends inflect or the spinoff clarifies the sum-of-the-parts value.
Drowning in data?
Find the real signal!
Bulls vs Bears: CMCSA Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence: revenue is declining (-1.23% YoY), broadband subscriber losses are accelerating, operating margins are compressing (17.23% vs. 19.77%), and the stock is in a persistent downtrend (-22.6% over one year) with analyst downgrades. However, the bull case rests on extreme valuation (5.2x PE, 20% FCF yield) and a 25% upside to analyst targets, suggesting the selloff may have overshot. The single most important tension is whether broadband subscriber trends stabilize before the NBCUniversal spinoff and Peacock profitability can unlock value—if broadband erosion continues, the value trap thesis wins; if it inflects, the deep-value re-rating could be powerful.
Bullish
- Deep value at 5.2x trailing PE: CMCSA trades at a trailing PE of 5.18x and forward PE of 6.40x, versus its own historical range of 12-19x (13.37x at YE2023, 18.78x at YE2021). The PEG ratio of 0.17 and EV/EBITDA of 4.37x are far below telecom peers that typically trade at 6-8x EBITDA, implying the market has priced in severe deterioration that may not materialize.
- Massive 20% FCF yield supports capital returns: Trailing free cash flow of $20.44 billion against a market cap of $101.8 billion yields roughly 20%, easily covering the 4.81% dividend (payout ratio only 24.5%) and $1.01 billion of Q2 2026 buybacks. This cash generation provides a substantial margin of safety and supports the stock even if growth remains negative.
- Analyst target implies 25% upside: The 22-analyst consensus average target of $28.38 represents +25.1% upside from $22.69, with a high target of $42.00. Even the low target of $17.00 is only 25% below current, while the consensus recommendation of 'hold' (mean 2.63) suggests the Street sees value but awaits a catalyst.
- Short-term relative strength turning positive: Over the past month CMCSA gained +0.62% while the S&P 500 fell -1.02%, producing a relative strength of +1.64. The stock has bounced +9.8% off its October low of $20.66, and the short ratio of 2.23 leaves room for a short-covering rally on any positive catalyst.
Bearish
- Broadband subscriber losses accelerating: Q3 results featured a revenue miss alongside continued broadband subscriber attrition, confirming that fixed wireless and fiber competition are eroding the core franchise. Revenue declined -1.23% YoY in Q2 2026 to $29.94 billion, extending a pattern of flat-to-negative top-line performance across recent quarters.
- Margin compression evident in operating results: Operating margin slipped to 17.23% in Q2 2026 from 19.77% a year earlier, and Q1 2026 operating margin was just 13.14%. EBITDA fell to $9.35 billion from $19.91 billion (though the prior year was distorted by a one-time gain), and net margin dropped to 11.78% from 36.69%.
- Stock in sustained downtrend, -22.6% over 1 year: CMCSA is down -22.56% over the trailing year and -23.19% YTD, underperforming the S&P 500's +13.13% one-year gain by a relative strength gap of -35.69%. At $22.69, the stock sits at just 17.8% of its 52-week range ($20.48-$32.86), only 10.8% above its 52-week low, signaling persistent distribution.
- Analyst downgrades and neutral stance: KeyBanc downgraded to Underweight on September 24, 2026, while Wells Fargo maintained Underweight and Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and UBS stayed at Equal Weight/Neutral. The consensus 'hold' rating (mean 2.63) and wide target range of $17-$42 (147% spread) indicate limited conviction and divergent views.
CMCSA Technical Analysis
Comcast is locked in a sustained downtrend, with the stock down -22.56% over the trailing year and -23.19% year-to-date, a stark underperformance against the S&P 500's +13.13% one-year gain (a relative strength gap of -35.69%). At the current price of $22.69, the stock sits at roughly 17.8% of its 52-week range of $20.48 to $32.86, placing it deep in the lower quartile and only about 10.8% above its 52-week low. This positioning signals persistent distribution and a lack of buyer conviction rather than a healthy pullback; the stock is behaving like a falling knife that has yet to find a durable floor, though the proximity to the 52-week low also raises the possibility of a value-oriented base forming if selling pressure exhausts.
Short-term momentum has diverged meaningfully from the longer-term trend. Over the past month the stock has gained +0.62% while the S&P fell -1.02%, producing a relative strength of +1.64, and the 3-month change is +1.77% versus the index's +2.85%. This suggests the aggressive selling has paused and a tentative stabilization is underway, but the -17.67% six-month change confirms the bounce is a modest counter-trend move within a larger decline rather than a confirmed reversal. The recent recovery from the October low near $20.66 to $22.69 (+9.8% off the trough) is constructive, but without volume confirmation or a break of prior swing highs, it reads as mean reversion rather than trend change.
Key technical levels are well defined: support rests at the 52-week low of $20.48, with the October closing low of $20.66 acting as the immediate floor, while resistance sits at the 52-week high of $32.86, with intermediate supply likely in the $24.50-$25.50 zone where the stock repeatedly failed in August and September. A breakdown below $20.48 would signal a fresh leg lower and likely trigger momentum-driven selling, whereas a decisive reclaim of $25 would be the first evidence of a trend repair. The maximum drawdown of -36.39% underscores the severity of the de-rating, and with a short ratio of 2.23, bearish positioning is present but not extreme, leaving room for a short-covering rally on any positive catalyst.
Beta
0.67
0.67x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-36.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$20-$33
Price range past year
Annual Return
-15.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CMCSA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +6.7% | -0.9% |
| 3m | -3.1% | +1.2% |
| 6m | -14.6% | +4.9% |
| 1y | -15.0% | +11.2% |
| ytd | -21.4% | +10.8% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
CMCSA Fundamental Analysis
Comcast's revenue trajectory is stagnating to slightly declining. Q2 2026 revenue came in at $29.94 billion, a -1.23% year-over-year decline from $30.31 billion in Q2 2025, extending a pattern of flat-to-negative top-line performance across recent quarters ($31.46 billion in Q1 2026, $32.31 billion in Q4 2025, $31.20 billion in Q3 2025). Segment data shows the Residential Connectivity and Platforms business generating $17.12 billion remains the anchor, while Media at $5.69 billion, Studios at $3.04 billion, and Theme Parks at $2.41 billion provide diversification but not enough growth to offset broadband subscriber losses. The recent Q3 revenue miss and continued broadband attrition confirm that competitive pressure from fixed wireless and fiber is eroding the core franchise faster than adjacent businesses can compensate, which is the central bear thesis on the investment case.
Profitability remains solid in absolute terms but is compressing at the operating line. Q2 2026 net income was $3.53 billion with a net margin of 11.78%, down from the 36.69% net margin in Q2 2025 (which was inflated by a one-time gain reflected in $8.65 billion of other income). Gross margin has been remarkably stable and high at 71.98% in Q2 2026 versus 75.01% a year earlier, but operating margin slipped to 17.23% from 19.77%, and EBITDA fell to $9.35 billion from $19.91 billion (again distorted by the prior-year one-time item). The trailing net margin of 16.17% and operating margin of 16.71% remain healthy for the telecom sector, but the direction of travel — with Q1 2026 operating margin at just 13.14% — shows margin pressure from content investment and competitive pricing.
Balance sheet and cash flow fundamentals are the strongest part of the story. Comcast generated $20.44 billion in trailing free cash flow against a market cap near $101.8 billion, an FCF yield of roughly 20%, and Q2 2026 free cash flow of $5.19 billion on $8.09 billion of operating cash flow. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.14 and current ratio of 0.88 reflect a leveraged but manageable balance sheet typical of cable, with interest coverage of 4.9x providing adequate cushion, while ROE of 20.64% and ROA of 4.26% demonstrate efficient capital deployment. The company comfortably funds its 4.81% dividend (payout ratio of just 24.5%) and buybacks ($1.01 billion repurchased in Q2 2026) from internal cash generation, meaning financial risk is low even as growth stalls — the core question is capital allocation, not solvency.
Quarterly Revenue
$29.9B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
-1.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
72.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$20.4B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is CMCSA Overvalued?
Because Comcast is solidly profitable (Q2 2026 net income of $3.53 billion), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at a trailing PE of just 5.18x and a forward PE of 6.40x, an extraordinarily low absolute level that reflects deep skepticism about the durability of earnings. The modest gap between trailing and forward multiples implies the market expects only limited earnings growth, and with a PEG ratio of 0.17, the valuation embeds a very pessimistic view of Comcast's earnings trajectory relative to its growth rate.
Against the Communication Services and Telecommunications Services peer set, Comcast screens at a steep discount. Its PS ratio of 0.82x, EV/Sales of 1.31x, and EV/EBITDA of 4.37x are all well below typical sector levels (major telecom peers often trade at 2-4x sales and 6-8x EBITDA), while its PB of 1.05x is near book value. The discount is partly justified by negative revenue growth (-1.23% YoY), broadband subscriber losses, and the secular decline narrative, but the magnitude — a PE of 5.2x versus a sector that generally trades in the mid-teens — suggests the market is pricing in significant fundamental deterioration beyond what current cash flows imply.
Historically, Comcast's valuation has compressed dramatically. Its PE ratio stood at 13.37x at year-end 2023, 12.14x at year-end 2022, and 18.78x at year-end 2021, versus 5.18x today — near the bottom of its multi-year band. Similarly, its PS ratio has fallen from 7.52x in Q4 2021 to 0.82x now, and its PB from 2.37x to 1.05x. This places the stock at or near historical valuation lows, which could represent a genuine value opportunity if cash flows prove durable, or a value trap if broadband erosion accelerates — the 4.81% dividend yield and ~20% FCF yield provide a margin of safety that partially compensates for the uncertainty.
PE
5.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 6x~16x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on revenue concentration and margin pressure. The Residential Connectivity and Platforms segment generated $17.12 billion of Q2 2026's $29.94 billion revenue (57%), making the company highly dependent on a mature, declining cable franchise facing fixed wireless and fiber competition. Revenue declined -1.23% YoY, and operating margin fell to 17.23% from 19.77%, while Q1 2026 operating margin was just 13.14%. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.14 and current ratio of 0.88 indicate a leveraged balance sheet, though interest coverage of 4.9x and $20.44 billion trailing FCF provide adequate cushion. The key financial risk is that continued broadband subscriber losses could accelerate revenue decline and force further margin compression, undermining the cash flow that supports the dividend and buybacks.
Market and competitive risks are significant given the stock's deep discount and secular headwinds. CMCSA trades at 5.18x trailing PE and 4.37x EV/EBITDA, far below peers, but this discount could persist or widen if broadband erosion accelerates. The stock's beta is not provided, but its -22.56% one-year return versus the S&P's +13.13% shows high relative downside. Competitive threats include fixed wireless from T-Mobile and Verizon, fiber overbuilders, and streaming disruptors like Netflix (whose ad revenue guidance miss on October 21, 2026, highlights streaming competition). Regulatory risks include potential broadband regulation and the NBCUniversal spinoff execution. Recent news of the Q3 revenue miss and broadband subscriber losses has sharpened bearish sentiment, with KeyBanc downgrading to Underweight.
Worst-case scenario: broadband subscriber losses accelerate, Peacock fails to reach profitability, and the NBCUniversal spinoff is executed at a disappointing valuation, leading to a value-trap outcome. The stock could retest its 52-week low of $20.48 (a -9.7% decline from $22.69) and potentially fall to the analyst low target of $17.00 (-25.1%). The maximum drawdown of -36.39% over the past year shows the severity of de-rating. In a severe adverse scenario, an investor could lose 25-35% from current levels, with downside to $17.00 if earnings deteriorate further.
FAQ
The key risks are: (1) Financial/operational: broadband subscriber losses accelerating due to fixed wireless and fiber competition, with revenue already declining -1.23% YoY and operating margins compressing to 17.23% from 19.77%; (2) Competitive: streaming disruptors like Netflix and aggressive pricing from telecom peers could further erode market share; (3) Macro/regulatory: high debt load (D/E 1.14) and potential broadband regulation could pressure cash flows; (4) Company-specific: failure of Peacock to reach profitability and a poorly executed NBCUniversal spinoff could destroy value. The most severe risk is a value trap where the low multiple persists, potentially driving the stock to $17.00 (-25%).
Our 12-month forecast has three scenarios: Bull (25% probability) targeting $32-$42 if broadband stabilizes and the NBCUniversal spinoff unlocks value; Base (50% probability) targeting $25-$28.50 as trends moderate and the stock recovers toward the analyst average of $28.38; Bear (25% probability) targeting $17-$20.50 if subscriber losses accelerate and margins compress. The base case is most likely, assuming revenue decline moderates to -0.5% to -1.5% and operating margins hold at 16-17%. Key catalysts include Q4 earnings, the spinoff announcement, and Peacock's profitability timeline.
CMCSA is deeply undervalued on traditional metrics. Its trailing PE of 5.18x and forward PE of 6.40x are near multi-year lows, compared to historical levels of 12-19x (13.37x at YE2023, 18.78x at YE2021). The PS ratio of 0.82x and EV/EBITDA of 4.37x are well below telecom peers that trade at 2-4x sales and 6-8x EBITDA. However, the discount is partly justified by negative revenue growth (-1.23% YoY) and broadband subscriber losses. The market is pricing in significant fundamental deterioration, implying skepticism about the durability of earnings. If cash flows prove resilient, the stock could re-rate toward $28-30; if not, it could remain cheap.
CMCSA is a good buy only for value-oriented investors with a long time horizon and tolerance for volatility. The stock trades at 5.18x trailing earnings with a 4.81% dividend yield and ~20% FCF yield, offering a substantial margin of safety. Analyst average target of $28.38 implies +25.1% upside, but the consensus rating is 'hold' and recent downgrades (KeyBanc to Underweight) highlight broadband subscriber loss risks. The biggest downside risk is a value trap, with the stock potentially falling to the analyst low target of $17.00 (-25%). For risk-averse investors, waiting for broadband trends to stabilize is prudent; for contrarians, the deep discount may be an opportunity.
CMCSA is more suitable for long-term investment (minimum 2-3 years) given its deep-value characteristics and ongoing turnaround. The stock's high dividend yield (4.81%) and strong FCF generation reward patient investors, but near-term volatility is likely with the stock down -22.56% over one year and a beta that has historically been around 1.0. Short-term trading is risky due to the lack of a near-term catalyst and the potential for further downgrades. A suggested minimum holding period of 2-3 years allows time for broadband trends to stabilize, the NBCUniversal spinoff to complete, and Peacock to reach profitability, which could drive a re-rating toward historical multiples.