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ConocoPhillips

COP

$111.34

-0.82%

ConocoPhillips is a US-based independent exploration and production (E&P) company operating in the global Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, with core activities spanning crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas production across key regions including Alaska, the Lower 48, Canada, and Asia-Pacific. As one of the world's largest independent E&P firms, it is distinguished by its substantial integrated LNG marketing activities and a portfolio focused on low-cost, long-life assets. The current investor narrative is dominated by the interplay between strong underlying free cash flow generation and heightened sensitivity to volatile oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as recent news highlights debates over sustained supply deficits versus sudden de-escalation risks impacting the sector's outlook.…

Should I buy COP
Bobby Quantitative Model
Jun 16, 2026

COP

ConocoPhillips

$111.34

-0.82%
Jun 16, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
ConocoPhillips is a US-based independent exploration and production (E&P) company operating in the global Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, with core activities spanning crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas production across key regions including Alaska, the Lower 48, Canada, and Asia-Pacific. As one of the world's largest independent E&P firms, it is distinguished by its substantial integrated LNG marketing activities and a portfolio focused on low-cost, long-life assets. The current investor narrative is dominated by the interplay between strong underlying free cash flow generation and heightened sensitivity to volatile oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as recent news highlights debates over sustained supply deficits versus sudden de-escalation risks impacting the sector's outlook.
Should I buy COP

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COP 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $111.34
Average Target $111.34
High Target $128.041
Low Target $94.639

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ConocoPhillips's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $144.74 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$144.74

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$89 - $145

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage for ConocoPhillips appears limited in the provided dataset, with only 3 analysts contributing to estimates for EPS and revenue, which is unusually low for a company of its market cap and suggests the data may be incomplete. The consensus estimates point to an average EPS of $10.35 and average revenue of $73.38 billion, with a wide range between low and high estimates reflecting significant uncertainty around commodity price forecasts. Without explicit target price data, the implied upside or downside cannot be calculated, but the recent institutional ratings show a pattern of reiterated bullish stances from major firms like Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and Citigroup maintaining 'Overweight' or 'Buy' ratings through March 2026, indicating sustained institutional confidence. The wide dispersion between the low EPS estimate of $9.08 and the high of $11.49 underscores the high uncertainty inherent in forecasting energy earnings, driven by volatile oil prices and geopolitical factors; the tight clustering of recent analyst actions around maintaining positive ratings, however, suggests a baseline of bullish sentiment on the company's operational execution within the challenging macro environment.

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COP Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a 23.54% 1-year price gain, but is currently experiencing a corrective phase from its recent peak. With a current price of $116.98, it is trading at approximately 86% of its 52-week range ($85.57 to $135.87), positioning it closer to the high end but having retreated meaningfully from the high, suggesting the momentum may have been overextended and is now consolidating gains. Recent momentum has turned negative, with the stock down 0.36% over the past month and down 4.03% over the past three months, a sharp deceleration and reversal from the strong 22.44% six-month gain, indicating a significant loss of short-term momentum that diverges from the longer-term bullish trend and likely reflects profit-taking and sector volatility. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $85.57, while immediate resistance is at the recent high of $135.87; a breakdown below the recent swing low near $113 could signal a deeper correction, while a breakout above $135 would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. The stock's beta of 0.106 indicates it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market (SPY) recently, which is atypical for an energy stock and may reflect its specific trading pattern or data anomaly, but the 14.9% max drawdown highlights the meaningful pullback risk present.

Beta

0.11

0.11x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-16.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$86-$136

Price range past year

Annual Return

+17.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCOP ReturnS&P 500
1m-9.0%+1.5%
3m-10.0%+13.4%
6m+20.7%+10.9%
1y+17.2%+24.5%
ytd+15.1%+10.0%

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COP Fundamental Analysis

Revenue has shown volatility tied to commodity prices, with the most recent quarterly revenue at $13.31 billion representing a 6.5% year-over-year decline from Q4 2024, and a sequential decline from $15.03 billion in Q3 2025, indicating a recent softening in top-line performance. The crude oil product line generated $8.70 billion in the latest period, constituting the dominant revenue segment, followed by natural gas at $2.07 billion and NGLs at $0.83 billion, showing the company's heavy reliance on crude oil prices. The company remains solidly profitable, reporting net income of $1.44 billion and a net margin of 10.8% for Q4 2025, though profitability has compressed from the $2.84 billion net income and 17.3% net margin reported in Q1 2025. Gross margin for the latest quarter was 19.6%, down from 30.0% in Q1 2025, reflecting the impact of lower realized prices and/or higher costs, while the operating margin of 15.1% indicates healthy operational efficiency despite the compression. The balance sheet is robust with a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36 and a current ratio of 1.30, demonstrating strong liquidity and low financial leverage. The company generates substantial cash, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $16.77 billion, providing ample internal funding for its capital program, dividends, and share buybacks, supported by a return on equity of 12.4% which indicates efficient use of shareholder capital.

Quarterly Revenue

$13.3B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.06%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.19%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$16.8B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Crude oil product line
Natural Gas Liquids
Natural Gas Product Line

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Valuation Analysis: Is COP Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability with positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 14.67x, while the forward PE is 12.72x based on estimated EPS of $10.35; the lower forward multiple suggests the market anticipates earnings growth or reflects a discount for near-term cyclicality. Compared to sector averages, the stock's valuation appears mixed: its trailing PE of 14.67x is below the typical market multiple for broad indices but specific industry comps are not provided in the data; however, its Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.00x and EV/EBITDA of 5.79x seem reasonable for a large-cap E&P firm, likely trading in line with or at a slight discount to peers given its scale and financial discipline. Historically, the current trailing PE of 14.67x sits well below its own historical range observed in the data, which has seen peaks above 19x (Q4 2025) and lows near 5.6x (2022), indicating the stock is not near historical valuation highs and may offer relative value if earnings stabilize, though it is above the lows seen during peak earnings periods in 2022.

PE

14.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 6x~19x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

5.2x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Related headlines

Bullish
ConocoPhillips Bets on Alaska's Willow to Double Free Cash Flow
Neutral
ConocoPhillips Stock Dips on Geopolitical Easing and Insider Selling
Bullish
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Bullish
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Bullish
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