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Cencora

COR

$302.46

-2.30%

Cencora is one of three dominant pharmaceutical wholesalers in the U.S., distributing branded, generic, and specialty drugs to pharmacies, hospitals, and healthcare providers. Alongside McKesson and Cardinal Health, it controls over 90% of the domestic wholesale market, and it also offers commercialization services, global specialty logistics via World Courier, and animal health distribution through MWI Animal Health. The current investor narrative centers on Cencora's ability to sustain revenue growth amid a consolidating industry, its expanding international footprint following the 2021 acquisition of Alliance Healthcare, and the debate over whether its thin margins can expand through operational efficiencies and higher-margin specialty services.…

Bobby Quantitative Model
Jul 9, 2026

COR

Cencora

$302.46

-2.30%
Jul 9, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Cencora is one of three dominant pharmaceutical wholesalers in the U.S., distributing branded, generic, and specialty drugs to pharmacies, hospitals, and healthcare providers. Alongside McKesson and Cardinal Health, it controls over 90% of the domestic wholesale market, and it also offers commercialization services, global specialty logistics via World Courier, and animal health distribution through MWI Animal Health. The current investor narrative centers on Cencora's ability to sustain revenue growth amid a consolidating industry, its expanding international footprint following the 2021 acquisition of Alliance Healthcare, and the debate over whether its thin margins can expand through operational efficiencies and higher-margin specialty services.

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COR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $302.46
Average Target $302.46
High Target $347.83
Low Target $257.09

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Cencora's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $393.20 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$393.20

8 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

8

covering this stock

Price Range

$242 - $393

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (25%)
Hold
4 (50%)
Sell
2 (25%)

Cencora is covered by 8 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The average estimated EPS for the current fiscal year is $31.04, with a range of $30.45 to $31.60. The average revenue estimate is $384.62 billion, with a range of $379.03 billion to $389.96 billion. While explicit price targets are not provided, the EPS estimates imply a forward P/E of 9.55x based on the current price of $296.51, which is well below the forward P/E of 14.98x from the valuation data, suggesting analysts expect significant earnings growth. The institutional ratings show a predominantly bullish sentiment, with recent upgrades from Morgan Stanley (Equal Weight to Overweight in Jan 2026) and Jefferies (Hold to Buy in Jan 2026). Firms like Barclays, Wells Fargo, and JP Morgan maintain Overweight ratings. The lack of explicit price targets limits the ability to calculate upside/downside, but the consensus EPS estimates imply a forward P/E of 9.55x, which is attractive relative to the industry. The wide range of EPS estimates ($30.45 to $31.60) indicates relatively low uncertainty, and the recent upgrades suggest improving sentiment. The absence of explicit price targets is a data limitation, but the analyst actions point to a favorable outlook.

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COR Technical Analysis

Cencora's 1-year price change of +1.83% masks a volatile trajectory, with the stock currently at $296.51, representing 78.5% of its 52-week range ($244.82 to $377.54). The stock is in a recovery phase after a sharp decline from its 52-week high, but it remains well below the midpoint, suggesting lingering bearish sentiment rather than a confirmed uptrend. Over the past 1 month, the stock surged 11.96%, while the 3-month change is -8.71%, indicating a recent bounce from oversold levels but still negative over the intermediate term. The 1-month relative strength of +13.21% versus the S&P 500's -1.25% shows strong short-term momentum, diverging from the 1-year relative weakness of -17.27%. This divergence could signal a potential trend reversal if buying pressure persists, but the 3-month relative strength of -22.27% warns that the longer-term downtrend may still be intact. The 52-week low of $244.82 provides key support, while resistance sits at the 52-week high of $377.54. A breakout above $377.54 would signal a resumption of the prior uptrend, while a breakdown below $244.82 could accelerate selling. With a beta of 0.581, Cencora is significantly less volatile than the market, meaning its moves are muted relative to the S&P 500, which may appeal to risk-averse investors but also limits upside participation in strong markets.

Beta

0.58

0.58x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-32.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$245-$378

Price range past year

Annual Return

+0.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCOR ReturnS&P 500
1m+8.2%+2.0%
3m-5.7%+10.6%
6m-9.9%+8.3%
1y+0.8%+20.4%
ytd-10.7%+10.2%

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COR Fundamental Analysis

Cencora's revenue trajectory remains robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2026, ended Dec 2025) reporting $85.93 billion, up 5.45% year-over-year from $81.49 billion in the prior-year quarter. Revenue has grown sequentially from $75.45 billion in Q2 FY2025 and $80.66 billion in Q3 FY2025, reflecting steady demand for pharmaceutical distribution. The Animal Health segment contributed $1.47 billion and Other Segments $658 million, but the core pharmaceutical wholesale business drives the vast majority of sales. The growth rate has decelerated from the 12.7% YoY growth seen in Q2 FY2025, but remains healthy given the mature industry. Profitability remains thin, with a gross margin of just 3.27% in the latest quarter, typical for the low-margin wholesale distribution industry. Net income was $560 million, yielding a net margin of 0.65%, up from 0.60% in the year-ago quarter. Operating margin improved to 1.18% from 0.97% a year earlier, indicating modest operating leverage. However, the company reported a net loss of $340 million in Q4 FY2025 due to a large impairment or restructuring charge, so profitability is lumpy. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.13, which is elevated due to high debt levels relative to equity, but this is common for wholesalers with large working capital needs. Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months was $3.61 billion, providing ample liquidity. Return on equity is extremely high at 103% (trailing), reflecting significant leverage, while return on assets is a modest 3.49%. The current ratio of 0.90 indicates tight liquidity, but the company generates strong operating cash flow to service debt.

Quarterly Revenue

$85.9B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+5.45%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

3.27%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$3.6B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Animal Health
Other Segments

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Valuation Analysis: Is COR Overvalued?

Since net income is positive (TTM net income of $1.63 billion), the trailing P/E ratio of 38.97x is the primary valuation metric. The forward P/E of 14.98x is significantly lower, implying that the market expects a sharp earnings recovery in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that current earnings are depressed by non-recurring charges, and the market is pricing in normalized profitability. Compared to the industry average P/E (not provided, but typically around 20-25x for pharmaceutical distributors), Cencora's trailing P/E of 38.97x appears expensive, but the forward P/E of 14.98x is at a discount to the sector. The P/S ratio of 0.19x is low, reflecting the thin margins of the wholesale business. Historically, Cencora's trailing P/E has ranged from roughly 14x to 45x over the past five years. The current trailing P/E of 38.97x is near the top of that range, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic future earnings. However, the forward P/E of 14.98x is near the lower end of the historical range, indicating that if earnings materialize as expected, the stock could be undervalued. The PEG ratio of 7.05x is high, implying that growth expectations are modest relative to the earnings multiple.

PE

39.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -45x~3303x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

17.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple

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