DuPont
DD
$135.10
+0.71%
DuPont de Nemours is a diversified global specialty chemicals company whose portfolio spans electronics and industrial materials, water and protection solutions, and healthcare-oriented specialty products, serving end markets including semiconductors, construction, automotive, aerospace, and packaging. Formed from the 2019 DowDuPont separation, the company has since repositioned itself as a focused specialty player rather than a commodity chemical producer, with its Electronics & Industrial and Water & Protection segments generating the bulk of revenue and profit. The current investor narrative centers on the company's aggressive portfolio transformation — highlighted by a $4.07 billion debt repayment and $500 million of share repurchases in Q4 2025 — alongside a Q1 2026 beat that management paired with raised guidance and an accelerated buyback, which investors have read as evidence of pricing power and operational discipline. That constructive story is being tested against a reported 45% year-over-year revenue decline in the latest quarter (reflecting divestiture activity and segment reshaping) and a trailing twelve-month net loss, leaving the debate squarely on whether the streamlined DuPont can deliver durable earnings growth from a smaller, higher-margin base.…
DD
DuPont
$135.10
Related headlines
DD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on DuPont's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $165.47 and implied upside of +22.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$165.47
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+22.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$145 - $186
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust, with 17 analysts and a consensus recommendation of "buy" (mean rating of 1.61 on a 1-5 scale where lower is more bullish), and the average target price of $165.47 implies roughly +26.8% upside from the current $130.45. The distribution of recent institutional ratings leans clearly positive — Citigroup, UBS, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital, and BMO Capital all carry Buy or Outperform ratings, while Morgan Stanley and BofA Securities sit at Equal Weight/Neutral — suggesting the consensus is bullish but not unanimous, with the skeptics focused on execution risk around the portfolio transformation. The consensus stance is therefore constructive, and the implied upside is meaningful enough to matter for a large-cap specialty chemical name.
The target range of $145 to $186 is moderately wide, spanning about 28% of the midpoint, which signals real disagreement about the pace of the earnings recovery rather than a binary outcome. The high target of $186 likely assumes successful execution of the buyback and debt reduction, margin expansion toward the mid-30s gross margin level, and a re-rating toward peer multiples on the $9.75 forward EPS; the low target of $145 still implies +11% upside and appears to price in slower growth and some multiple compression but not a severe downturn. Notably, the low end sits above the current price, meaning even the most cautious analyst sees the stock as undervalued — a bullish signal — though the absence of any recent upgrades (all ratings are reiterations) suggests the Street is waiting for the next earnings print to validate the recovery before raising targets further.
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Bulls vs Bears: DD Investment Factors
The bull case currently has the stronger evidence: a fortress balance sheet (D/E 0.229), stable 35.8% gross margins, $1.107 billion of trailing FCF, a 16.3x forward PE below peer norms, and unanimous analyst coverage with a $165.47 average target implying +26.8% upside — with even the low target above the current price. The bear case is not weak, however: a 45.2% revenue decline, negative trailing margins (-11.4%), and deteriorating 3- and 6-month relative strength (-6.27 and -15.65) show the market has real doubts about the streamlined portfolio's growth engine. The single most important tension is whether the $9.75 forward EPS is achievable — the gap between a -$0.046 trailing EPS and $9.75 forward EPS is enormous, and how much of that swing is recurring operating earnings versus the absence of one-time charges will determine whether the 16.3x multiple is cheap or a value trap. A secondary tension is the EV/EBITDA of 16.57x on depressed $219 million quarterly EBITDA, which only compresses if margins recover toward prior levels. On balance, the weight of hard data — balance sheet, cash flow, margin stability, and analyst targets — favors the bulls, but conviction should be moderate until the next earnings print validates the recovery.
Bullish
- Analyst consensus implies 26.8% upside: All 17 covering analysts carry a consensus 'buy' rating (mean 1.61 on a 1-5 scale), with an average target of $165.47 versus the $130.45 price — roughly +26.8% upside. Critically, even the lowest target of $145 sits about 11% above the current price, meaning no analyst in the coverage universe sees the stock as overvalued today.
- Balance sheet materially de-risked: Debt-to-equity of just 0.229 and a current ratio of 2.42 reflect a fortress balance sheet after the $4.074 billion debt repayment in Q4 2025. Interest expense fell to $40 million in Q1 2026 from $99 million in Q3 2025, directly boosting forward earnings power.
- Forward valuation is undemanding: The forward PE of 16.31x on consensus EPS of $9.75 is below the roughly 18-22x typical for quality specialty chemical peers, while PS of 2.45x and PB of 1.21x sit near the low end of DuPont's own historical range. If the $9.75 EPS is delivered, the stock is inexpensive on normalized earnings.
- Margins holding despite portfolio shrinkage: Gross margin was 35.8% in Q1 2026 and has stayed in the 31-36% band across recent quarters, while operating margin recovered to 11.1% and net income turned positive at $161 million after the Q4 2025 loss of $126 million. This supports the pricing-power narrative management highlighted alongside raised guidance.
Bearish
- Revenue down 45% year over year: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.681 billion fell 45.2% from $3.066 billion a year earlier, and has compressed sequentially from $3.072 billion in Q3 2025. Even accounting for divestitures, the smaller base means the company must prove it can grow organically — consensus revenue of ~$8.07 billion implies only stabilization, not growth.
- Trailing profitability is negative: Trailing twelve-month net margin is -11.4% with EPS of -$0.046, ROE of -5.6%, and a negative payout ratio of -0.77. The entire bull case rests on a swing to roughly $1.33 billion of net income implied by the $9.75 forward EPS — a recovery that has not yet been demonstrated over a full cycle.
- Relative strength has deteriorated: While the stock is up 33.0% over one year (+17.49 points versus SPY), it has surrendered leadership recently with 3-month relative strength of -6.27 and 6-month of -15.65. The price at $130.45 is only 55.8% through its 52-week range and 17.4% below the $157.98 high, signaling a stalled uptrend.
- EV/EBITDA looks full on depressed earnings: At 16.57x EV/EBITDA, DuPont screens expensive relative to specialty chemical peers — but this is because Q1 2026 EBITDA was only $219 million (13.0% margin) versus $683 million in Q3 2025. The multiple only normalizes if EBITDA recovers sharply, adding execution risk to the valuation.
DD Technical Analysis
DuPont is in a recovery trend that has stalled into a corrective phase: the stock is up 33.0% over the past year but sits at $130.45, only about 55.8% of the way through its 52-week range of $98.26 to $157.98, roughly 17.4% below the high and 32.7% above the low. That positioning — strong annual gains but a price well off the peak — suggests the momentum phase has given way to consolidation rather than a clean uptrend, and the stock is neither an overextended breakout nor a falling knife. The 1-year relative strength versus SPY of +17.49 percentage points confirms genuine outperformance, but the stock has surrendered leadership recently, with a 3-month relative strength of -6.27 and a 6-month relative strength of -15.65.
Short-term momentum is diverging from the longer-term trend in a way that argues for stabilization rather than reversal: the stock is up 2.26% over the past month (outperforming SPY's 1.22% by 1.04 points) and 6.39% year-to-date, but down 3.58% over three months and 8.17% over six months. This pattern — positive 1-month, negative 3- and 6-month — is characteristic of a bottoming attempt after a drawdown, with the October bounce from the $124-128 area showing buyers defending lower levels. The 1-month relative strength of 1.0376 versus the 3-month reading of -6.2675 marks a clear inflection in relative performance, though volume of roughly 874,000 shares and a short ratio of 4.41 days suggest neither capitulation nor aggressive short-covering is driving the move.
Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $98.26, with a nearer floor around the September-October lows near $124-128, while resistance is the 52-week high of $157.98, with intermediate supply likely near the $145-150 zone where the stock repeatedly failed in May and August. A breakout above $158 would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend and likely require a fundamental catalyst such as an earnings beat or buyback acceleration, whereas a breakdown below $124 would confirm the multi-month downtrend and open the path toward the $98 low. With a beta of 1.079, the stock is only about 8% more volatile than the market — modest for a cyclical chemical name — and a max drawdown of -19.6% over the period indicates contained downside risk, supporting moderate position sizing rather than aggressive tactical exposure.
Beta
1.08
1.08x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-19.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$100-$158
Price range past year
Annual Return
+35.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | DD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.5% | -1.2% |
| 3m | -1.9% | +3.4% |
| 6m | -2.8% | +7.0% |
| 1y | +35.0% | +14.4% |
| ytd | +10.2% | +12.0% |
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DD Fundamental Analysis
The revenue picture is dominated by portfolio reshaping rather than organic demand: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.681 billion fell 45.2% year over year against a $3.066 billion prior-year quarter, a decline that reflects divestitures and segment exits rather than a collapse in underlying demand, since gross profit of $602 million on a 35.8% gross margin remains healthy. Sequentially, revenue has compressed sharply from $3.072 billion in Q3 2025 and $3.257 billion in Q2 2025, consistent with a smaller post-transaction DuPont, and segment data shows Electronics & Industrial at $1.506 billion and Water & Protection at $1.359 billion as the core profit engines. The investment case therefore hinges less on top-line growth and more on whether the retained businesses can compound earnings from a leaner base, with consensus revenue estimates of roughly $8.07 billion for the forward period implying stabilization.
Profitability is improving at the operating line even as reported net income swings: Q1 2026 net income was $161 million (a 9.58% net margin) and operating income was $186 million (11.1% operating margin), a marked recovery from the Q4 2025 loss of $126 million and the Q1 2025 loss of $589 million that was driven by a $923 million other-expense charge. Gross margin has been remarkably stable in the 31-36% band across recent quarters — 35.8% in Q1 2026, 31.1% in Q4 2025, 35.0% in Q3 2025 — which is solid for specialty chemicals and supports the pricing-power narrative. The trailing twelve-month net margin of -11.4% and EPS of -$0.046 reflect the cumulative impact of prior impairment and restructuring charges rather than current operating economics, and the forward EPS estimate of $9.75 versus the trailing loss underscores how heavily the reported figures are distorted by one-time items.
Balance sheet health is a clear strength: debt-to-equity of just 0.229 and a current ratio of 2.42 indicate low leverage and ample liquidity, while the Q4 2025 repayment of $4.074 billion in debt materially de-risked the capital structure. Free cash flow of $1.107 billion on a trailing basis (with $130 million in Q1 2026 and $221 million in Q4 2025) comfortably funds the $82 million quarterly dividend and modest capex of $102 million in Q1 2026, and the 3.56% dividend yield is well covered on a cash basis despite a negative payout ratio caused by GAAP losses. The weak spots are returns — ROE of -5.6% and ROA of 2.07% — and a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 11.9x that looks reasonable only because FCF is depressed relative to the company's historical cash generation, meaning the balance sheet provides a cushion but capital efficiency must improve to justify a re-rating.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.7B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-45.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
35.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is DD Overvalued?
Because trailing net income is negative (EPS of -$0.046, trailing PE of -21.5x), the PE ratio is not a meaningful primary metric; I have selected the forward PE and price-to-sales ratio instead, with the forward PE of 16.31x on estimated EPS of $9.75 providing the cleanest read on normalized earnings power. The PS ratio of 2.45x and EV/Sales of 2.77x are the appropriate secondary anchors, and the enormous gap between the negative trailing PE and the 16.3x forward multiple signals that the market is pricing a full earnings normalization — the forward estimate implies roughly $1.33 billion of net income versus the current trailing loss, a swing that depends on the absence of further charges.
Against the specialty chemicals sector, DuPont screens cheap on most measures: a forward PE of 16.3x is below the roughly 18-22x typical for quality specialty chemical peers, the PS of 2.45x is modest for a business with 35.8% gross margins, and the PB of 1.21x is well below the 2-3x range common among diversified chemical companies. The PEG ratio of 0.10 is optically extreme and should be treated with caution given the distorted earnings base, but the EV/EBITDA of 16.57x is the one metric that looks full relative to peers, reflecting the currently depressed EBITDA of $219 million in Q1 2026. On balance the discount appears justified only if one believes the earnings recovery is durable; if the forward EPS of $9.75 is achieved, the stock at $130.45 is inexpensive, but the market is clearly discounting execution risk.
Historically, DuPont's valuation has been volatile because of its loss-making quarters: the PS ratio ranged from roughly 3.7x to 11.2x over the past several years, and the current 2.45x sits near the low end of that band, while the PB of 1.21x is above the 0.52-0.66x levels seen through 2023-2025 but far below the 1.34x peak in Q1 2026. The forward PE of 16.3x compares favorably with the 29.4x trailing PE recorded in Q1 2026 and the 51.2x in Q2 2025, indicating the market is now valuing the company on recovered earnings rather than depressed ones. This places the stock in the lower half of its own historical valuation range — a setup that offers value if margins hold, but one that also reflects skepticism that the streamlined portfolio can sustain the earnings implied by consensus.
PE
-21.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~29x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
16.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on the earnings recovery itself. Trailing twelve-month net margin is -11.4% with EPS of -$0.046 and ROE of -5.6%, meaning the 16.31x forward PE depends entirely on delivering $9.75 of EPS — roughly $1.33 billion of net income versus the current trailing loss. Revenue fell 45.2% year over year to $1.681 billion in Q1 2026, and while much of that reflects divestitures, the smaller base leaves less cushion: a single segment stumble in Electronics & Industrial ($1.506 billion) or Water & Protection ($1.359 billion) would hit consolidated results disproportionately. EBITDA of just $219 million in Q1 2026 (13.0% margin) versus $683 million in Q3 2025 shows how volatile the current earnings base is, and the negative payout ratio of -0.77 means the 3.56% dividend is only covered on a cash basis, not GAAP earnings.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression and cyclicality. The EV/EBITDA of 16.57x is full relative to specialty chemical peers and only looks reasonable if EBITDA recovers; if it does not, multiple compression could offset any earnings improvement. The stock's beta of 1.079 means it moves roughly in line with the market, but as a chemicals name it carries embedded cyclical exposure to semiconductors, construction, and automotive end markets — a demand downturn in any of these would pressure the 35.8% gross margin. Recent news is constructive (Q1 beat, raised guidance, accelerated buyback), but the stock's 3-month relative strength of -6.27 and 6-month of -15.65 versus SPY show the market has already begun fading the story, and the absence of any analyst upgrades suggests the Street needs proof before re-rating the shares.
The worst-case scenario is a failed earnings normalization: if forward EPS comes in well below $9.75 because margins revert toward the 31.1% gross margin seen in Q4 2025 and one-time charges recur, the stock would likely retest its 52-week low of $98.26 — about -24.7% from the current $130.45. A break below the $124-128 support zone would confirm the multi-month downtrend and open that path. Even the analyst low target of $145 assumes upside, so a true bear case is not priced by the Street; the historical max drawdown of -19.6% over the observed period suggests a realistic adverse move of roughly -20% to -25%, with the 52-week low as the hard floor. Investors should size positions assuming a potential -25% drawdown if the recovery thesis fails.
