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Deere & Company

DE

$592.67

-1.13%

Deere & Company is the world's leading manufacturer of agricultural equipment and a major producer of construction machinery, operating through segments including Production & Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture & Turf, Construction & Forestry, and Financial Services. As the dominant player in the global agricultural machinery market, Deere differentiates itself through its extensive dealer network spanning over 2,000 locations in North America and its growing focus on precision agriculture and autonomous technology. The current investor narrative centers on whether the agricultural equipment cycle is bottoming, with recent earnings beats and raised guidance fueling optimism, while concerns persist about rising input costs from geopolitical tensions and the pace of recovery in the core large agriculture business.…

Bobby Quantitative Model
Jul 31, 2026

DE

Deere & Company

$592.67

-1.13%
Jul 31, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Deere & Company is the world's leading manufacturer of agricultural equipment and a major producer of construction machinery, operating through segments including Production & Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture & Turf, Construction & Forestry, and Financial Services. As the dominant player in the global agricultural machinery market, Deere differentiates itself through its extensive dealer network spanning over 2,000 locations in North America and its growing focus on precision agriculture and autonomous technology. The current investor narrative centers on whether the agricultural equipment cycle is bottoming, with recent earnings beats and raised guidance fueling optimism, while concerns persist about rising input costs from geopolitical tensions and the pace of recovery in the core large agriculture business.

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DE 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $592.67
Average Target $592.67
High Target $681.57
Low Target $503.77

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Deere & Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $648.03 and implied upside of +9.3% versus the current price.

Average Target

$648.03

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+9.3%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

—

covering this stock

Price Range

$500 - $812

Analyst target range

Deere is covered by 23 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 2.125 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $648.03, implying approximately 3.2% upside from the current price of $628.16. The distribution leans bullish, with the majority of ratings being Buy or Outperform, though there are some Neutral/Hold ratings from firms like Citigroup and JP Morgan. The consensus sentiment is moderately bullish, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term prospects but tempered by near-term cyclical headwinds. The target price range spans from a low of $500.00 to a high of $812.00, indicating significant uncertainty about the future. The high target of $812.00 assumes a strong recovery in the agricultural cycle and successful execution of autonomous technology initiatives, while the low target of $500.00 prices in a prolonged downturn in farm incomes and margin compression. Recent rating actions show a mix of reaffirmations and upgrades, with Jefferies upgrading from Underperform to Hold in April 2026 and several firms maintaining their ratings, suggesting a stable but cautious outlook. The wide spread between low and high targets highlights the binary nature of the agricultural cycle, making Deere a high-conviction but volatile investment.

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DE Technical Analysis

Deere is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock price up 22.05% over the past year and currently trading at $628.16, which is 93.2% of its 52-week range ($433.00 low to $674.19 high). This positioning near the upper end of the range indicates strong momentum and bullish sentiment, though it also suggests the stock may be approaching overbought territory, warranting caution for new entries. The 1-year price change of 22.05% significantly outpaces the S&P 500's 16.47% gain, demonstrating Deere's relative strength in the industrial sector. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with the stock gaining 4.56% over the past month and 11.65% over the past three months, both outpacing the S&P 500's 0.78% and 3.50% returns, respectively. This acceleration aligns with the longer-term uptrend, reinforcing the bullish case, though the 1-month relative strength of 3.78% suggests the stock is gaining ground on the market. The RSI is not explicitly provided, but the consistent upward price action and volume of 960,343 shares indicate healthy participation. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $433.00, a level that would represent a 31% decline from current prices, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $674.19, a breakout above which would signal a new leg higher. The stock's beta of 0.897 indicates it is less volatile than the overall market, meaning it tends to move with less amplitude than the S&P 500, which can be attractive for risk-averse investors seeking exposure to the agricultural cycle.

Beta

0.90

0.90x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-20.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$433-$674

Price range past year

Annual Return

+13.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodDE ReturnS&P 500
1m-5.6%+0.2%
3m+2.7%+3.7%
6m+12.2%+8.0%
1y+13.0%+18.2%
ytd+27.0%+9.6%

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DE Fundamental Analysis

Deere's revenue trajectory shows moderate growth, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $13.369 billion in Q2 2026 representing a 6.74% year-over-year increase. However, this growth rate has decelerated from the 8.0% growth seen in the prior year's Q2 2025 ($12.525 billion), and the sequential trend from Q1 2026 ($9.611 billion) reflects typical seasonality. The Production & Precision Agriculture segment, the largest at $4.403 billion, is the primary growth driver, while the Construction & Forestry segment ($2.167 billion for compact construction equipment) and Financial Services ($1.457 billion) provide diversification. The deceleration in YoY growth suggests the agricultural cycle may be stabilizing rather than accelerating, which is a key debate for investors. Profitability remains robust, with net income of $1.773 billion in Q2 2026 and a net margin of 13.26%, though this is down from 14.40% in Q2 2025. Gross margin improved to 38.17% from 39.25% a year ago, indicating stable pricing power, while operating margin of 22.48% is healthy but slightly compressed from 23.02% in the prior year. The company's ROE of 19.37% is strong, reflecting efficient use of equity, though the net margin decline bears watching if input costs continue to rise. Deere's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.46, which is elevated but manageable given its strong cash flow generation. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $3.768 billion, providing ample coverage for capital expenditures and dividends. The current ratio of 2.31 indicates solid liquidity, and the company generated $1.932 billion in operating cash flow in Q2 2026, up from negative cash flow in Q1 2026, demonstrating working capital management. The FCF yield of approximately 3.0% (based on market cap of $125.14 billion) is modest but supported by a dividend yield of 1.37% and a payout ratio of 34.2%.

Quarterly Revenue

$13.4B

2026-05

Revenue YoY Growth

+6.7%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

38.2%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$3.8B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Financial Products
Compact Construction Equipment
Forestry
Production & Precision Ag (PPA)
Roadbuilding
Small Agriculture
Turf
Material Reconciling Items

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Valuation Analysis: Is DE Overvalued?

Given Deere's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 24.89x, while the forward P/E is 27.63x, implying the market expects earnings to decline slightly over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that the market is pricing in a potential earnings contraction, which aligns with the decelerating growth narrative. Compared to the industry average (not explicitly provided, but typically for agricultural machinery, the sector average P/E is around 15-20x), Deere's trailing P/E of 24.89x appears to trade at a premium, likely reflecting its market leadership and strong brand. The PEG ratio of -0.89 (negative due to negative earnings growth expectations) indicates that the stock is not cheap on a growth-adjusted basis. Historically, Deere's trailing P/E has ranged from roughly 10x to 55x over the past few years, with the current 24.89x near the middle of that range. This suggests the stock is fairly valued relative to its own history, not excessively cheap nor expensive. The price-to-book ratio of 4.82x is above the historical average of around 5x, indicating the market is willing to pay a premium for Deere's assets, likely due to its strong brand and competitive position.

PE

24.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 10x~38x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

15.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple

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Bullish
Deere's Strong Quarter Sparks Analyst Optimism
Bullish
Deere's AI Farming Bet: Smart Investment or Cycle Play?

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