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Brinker International

EAT

$185.26

+2.56%

Brinker International, Inc. operates casual dining restaurants under the Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy brands, primarily in the United States. As a leading player in the casual dining segment, Chili's is known for its value-oriented menu and broad appeal, while Maggiano's targets the Italian dining niche. The current investor narrative centers on Brinker's successful turnaround of Chili's, driven by value-focused marketing and operational improvements, which has led to strong same-store sales growth and margin expansion, making the stock a focus in the casual dining recovery story.…

Bobby Quantitative Model
Jul 10, 2026

EAT

Brinker International

$185.26

+2.56%
Jul 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Brinker International, Inc. operates casual dining restaurants under the Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy brands, primarily in the United States. As a leading player in the casual dining segment, Chili's is known for its value-oriented menu and broad appeal, while Maggiano's targets the Italian dining niche. The current investor narrative centers on Brinker's successful turnaround of Chili's, driven by value-focused marketing and operational improvements, which has led to strong same-store sales growth and margin expansion, making the stock a focus in the casual dining recovery story.

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EAT 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $185.26
Average Target $185.26
High Target $213.05
Low Target $157.47

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Brinker International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $240.84 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$240.84

4 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

4

covering this stock

Price Range

$148 - $241

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (25%)
Hold
2 (50%)
Sell
1 (25%)

Only 4 analysts cover Brinker, with a consensus leaning bullish: actions include Overweight from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, Buy from Citigroup, UBS, and Goldman Sachs, and Hold/Neutral from Barclays, Jefferies, and Piper Sandler. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS average of $17.42 and a forward P/E of 14.9x, the implied target is approximately $259.56, representing 40% upside from the current price of $185.26. This suggests strong bullish sentiment. The limited coverage (4 analysts) indicates that Brinker is a mid-cap stock with moderate institutional interest. The high target (based on high EPS estimate of $17.67) implies $263.28, while the low (EPS $17.14) implies $255.39, a narrow spread of about 3%, indicating high conviction among analysts. Recent ratings have been stable, with no downgrades in the past six months, reinforcing positive sentiment. However, the small analyst base means less efficient price discovery and potentially higher volatility.

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EAT Technical Analysis

The stock is in a strong uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +11.1% and currently trading at $185.26, near the top of its 52-week range of $100.30 to $189.40 (97.8% of the range). This positioning near highs suggests robust momentum and investor confidence, though it also raises caution about potential overextension. The stock has recovered sharply from a low of $126.33 in May 2026, indicating a powerful reversal. Short-term momentum is exceptionally strong, with a 1-month price change of +25.7% and a 3-month change of +19.4%, both significantly outpacing the S&P 500's respective gains of 4.1% and 11.1%. This accelerating momentum diverges from the more moderate 1-year trend, signaling a potential breakout phase or mean reversion risk. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 over 1 month is +21.6%, confirming recent outperformance. Key resistance is at the 52-week high of $189.40, while support lies near the 52-week low of $100.30, though more immediate support is around $160 (recent consolidation area). A breakout above $189.40 would signal continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $160 could indicate a pullback. The stock's beta of 1.25 implies 25% more volatility than the market, meaning it amplifies market moves, which is important for risk management.

Beta

1.25

1.25x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-44.4%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$100-$189

Price range past year

Annual Return

+11.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodEAT ReturnS&P 500
1m+25.7%+1.8%
3m+19.4%+10.0%
6m+15.8%+8.8%
1y+11.1%+21.1%
ytd+22.3%+10.7%

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EAT Fundamental Analysis

Revenue is growing steadily, with the most recent quarter (Q2 FY2026, ending Dec 2025) reporting $1.452 billion, up 6.9% year-over-year from $1.358 billion in the prior-year quarter. This marks an acceleration from the 5.7% growth in Q1 FY2026 and the 2.4% growth in Q4 FY2025, driven by Chili's segment (which contributed $1.317 billion of total revenue) benefiting from value-focused promotions and traffic gains. The growth trajectory supports the investment case for a successful brand turnaround. Profitability is strong and improving: net income for Q2 FY2026 was $128.5 million, up from $118.5 million a year ago, with a net margin of 8.8% versus 8.7% previously. Gross margin expanded significantly to 74.5% in Q2 FY2026 from 19.8% in the year-ago quarter, reflecting a shift in cost structure (likely due to lower food costs or menu mix). Operating margin improved to 11.6% from 11.5% in the prior year, indicating operational efficiency gains. The balance sheet shows high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.57, but free cash flow generation is robust: trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $455.9 million, and the company generated $155.2 million in FCF in Q2 FY2026 alone. ROE is 103.3%, reflecting high leverage and strong profitability, while the current ratio of 0.31 indicates tight liquidity, but strong operating cash flow ($218.9 million in Q2) mitigates near-term risk.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.5B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+6.92%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

74.49%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$455900000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Chili's Restaurants
Maggiano's Restaurants

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Valuation Analysis: Is EAT Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 20.6x, while the forward P/E is 14.9x, implying the market expects earnings growth of about 38% over the next year. This gap suggests optimistic growth expectations are already priced in. Compared to the industry average (Restaurants sector), Brinker's trailing P/E of 20.6x is at a premium to the sector median of approximately 18x (based on industry data), representing a 14% premium. This premium may be justified by superior revenue growth (6.9% YoY) and expanding margins, but it also leaves less room for error. Historically, Brinker's trailing P/E has ranged from 6x to 46x over the past five years. The current 20.6x is near the middle of this range, suggesting it is not excessively stretched. However, the forward P/E of 14.9x is below the historical average, indicating that the market may be pricing in a normalization of earnings after a period of strong growth.

PE

20.6x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -10x~46x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

13.3x

Enterprise Value Multiple

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