EVRG

Evergy

$84.43

-0.61%
Oct 23, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Evergy, Inc. is a regulated electric utility that generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to customers across eastern Kansas and western Missouri through operating subsidiaries including Evergy Metro, Evergy Kansas Central, Evergy Missouri West, and Evergy Transmission, backed by a combined rate base exceeding $20 billion split roughly half in Kansas and the remainder across Missouri and interstate transmission. The company is a pure-play regulated wires-and-generation utility with a notable renewable identity, ranking among the largest wind energy suppliers in the United States, which gives it a differentiated position versus coal-heavy Midwest peers as decarbonization mandates and data-center load growth reshape the region's power needs. The current investor narrative centers on the tension between constructive rate-case outcomes and capital-intensive grid investment against a backdrop of elevated interest rates that pressure utility valuations, with the stock's 13.98% year-to-date gain outpacing the S&P 500's 11.93% but its 7.48% one-year return trailing the index's 15.53% by more than eight percentage points. Debate is further shaped by the company's negative trailing free cash flow of roughly -$1.41 billion as it funds a heavy capital expenditure program, a 3.67% dividend yield that anchors income-oriented holders, and a beta of just 0.482 that makes the name a defensive allocation rather than a growth vehicle.

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BobbyInvestment Opinion: Should I buy EVRG Today?

Rating: Hold. The core thesis is that Evergy offers a defensive, income-oriented holding with a 3.67% dividend yield and low beta of 0.482, but its negative free cash flow of -$1.41 billion and elevated leverage limit upside until capital deployment yields tangible returns. The analyst consensus is Buy (mean rating 1.92) with an average target of $90.45, implying 8.6% upside, but the stock's recent underperformance versus the market (-8.05 percentage points over one year) and wide target range ($80-$103) suggest caution.

Supporting evidence: The forward PE of 18.28x is slightly below the sector's typical 16-20x range, while the price-to-book of 1.63x is within the historical 1.20-1.95x band. Revenue grew 5.13% year-over-year in Q2 2026, and net margin improved to 14.33% from 12.01%. However, free cash flow is deeply negative at -$1.406 billion, and the dividend payout ratio of 71.66% leaves little cushion. The 3.67% yield exceeds the sector average, providing income support, but the stock trades at a modest premium to its 2024 multiples.

Risks and conditions: The biggest risks are continued negative free cash flow requiring equity issuance, adverse regulatory outcomes, and rising interest rates compressing the valuation multiple. The rating would upgrade to Buy if free cash flow turns positive or if the stock pulls back toward the $77.66 support level, offering a better risk/reward. It would downgrade to Sell if the dividend is cut or if rate-case decisions result in disallowances. Relative to its history and peers, the stock appears fairly valued, with limited margin of safety but a yield-supported floor.

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EVRG 12-Month Price Forecast

Evergy presents a balanced risk/reward profile: the stock is fairly valued with a defensive yield and low beta, but its negative free cash flow and elevated leverage constrain upside. The consensus Buy rating and 8.6% upside to the average target suggest moderate optimism, but the wide target range and recent underperformance versus the market indicate caution. We would upgrade to bullish if free cash flow turns positive or if data-center load growth accelerates, and downgrade to bearish if rate-case outcomes disappoint or the dividend is cut. The 12-month outlook is neutral with a slight positive bias, contingent on stable interest rates and constructive regulatory decisions.

Historical Price
Current Price $84.43
Average Target $88.50
High Target $103.00
Low Target $71.00

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Evergy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $89.77 and implied upside of +6.3% versus the current price.

Average Target

$89.77

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+6.3%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

—

covering this stock

Price Range

$80 - $97

Analyst target range

Coverage is solid for a mid-cap regulated utility, with 11 analysts and a consensus recommendation of "Buy" (mean rating of 1.92 on a 1-to-5 scale where lower is more bullish). The average target price of $90.45 implies roughly 8.6% upside from the current $83.30, and the consensus leans clearly bullish — the institutional ratings history shows Citigroup, BMO Capital, Barclays, and BofA Securities all maintaining Buy or Overweight/Outperform stances through 2026, with only UBS (Neutral) and Wells Fargo (Equal Weight) on the sidelines. The consensus revenue estimate of $8.033 billion and EPS estimate of $5.96 are consistent with the mid-single-digit growth trajectory and normalized earnings recovery visible in the quarterly data.

The target range of $80.00 to $103.00 is moderately wide — a 29% spread from low to high — signaling meaningful dispersion in assumptions about regulatory outcomes and capital deployment. The $103 high target likely assumes successful rate-case resolutions, accelerating data-center and industrial load growth in Kansas and Missouri, and multiple expansion toward premium utility peers, while the $80 low target sits below the current price and prices in margin compression from rising interest costs, unfavorable regulatory treatment, or continued free-cash-flow deterioration requiring equity issuance. Notably, the low target of $80.00 is only 4.0% below the current price, suggesting downside is viewed as limited, and the absence of any downgrades in the ratings history — UBS moved from Buy to Neutral in February 2026 but has held Neutral since — indicates stable rather than deteriorating sentiment. The tight clustering of recent actions around Buy/Outperform supports a constructive but not euphoric setup, with the stock's low beta and 3.67% yield likely limiting both the magnitude of upside to the average target and the severity of any downside.

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Bulls vs Bears: EVRG Investment Factors

The bear case currently has stronger evidence due to the company's deeply negative free cash flow of -$1.41 billion, elevated leverage (debt-to-equity 1.51x), and persistent underperformance versus the market (-8.05 percentage points over one year). However, the bull case is supported by a consensus Buy rating with an 8.6% upside to the average target, steady 5.13% revenue growth, and a defensive 3.67% dividend yield with a low beta of 0.482. The single most important tension is whether the capital-intensive investment program will eventually generate sufficient returns to cover the dividend and debt service, or whether continued negative free cash flow will force equity issuance or a dividend cut. Resolution of pending rate cases and the pace of data-center load growth will be critical in determining which side prevails.

Bullish

  • Analyst consensus Buy with 8.6% upside: 11 analysts rate EVRG a consensus Buy (mean rating 1.92), with an average target price of $90.45 versus the current $83.30, implying 8.6% upside. The low target of $80.00 is only 4.0% below the current price, indicating limited perceived downside, while the high target of $103.00 suggests meaningful upside if rate cases and data-center load growth materialize.
  • Steady mid-single-digit revenue growth: Q2 2026 revenue of $1.5001 billion grew 5.13% year-over-year from $1.4269 billion, extending a consistent cadence of mid-single-digit expansion across recent quarters. This growth reflects rate-base expansion and constructive regulatory outcomes rather than cyclical volume, providing a stable foundation for earnings.
  • Improving profitability at the operating line: Q2 2026 net income rose to $215 million (14.33% net margin) from $171.3 million (12.01% margin) a year earlier, while operating margin reached 25.37% and EBITDA margin 46.88%. The trailing operating margin of 25.19% is consistent with regulated utility norms and supports stable allowed returns.
  • Defensive low-beta profile with 3.67% yield: Beta of 0.482 means the stock moves roughly half as much as the S&P 500, and the 3.67% dividend yield exceeds the typical utility sector payout of 3.0-3.5%. This makes EVRG an attractive defensive allocation for income-oriented investors seeking lower volatility.

Bearish

  • Negative free cash flow of -$1.41 billion: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is -$1.406 billion, with Q2 2026 alone at -$611.3 million against $959.9 million of capital expenditure. The dividend payout ratio of 71.66% consumes most of operating cash flow, meaning both the dividend and growth capex are effectively financed with debt, heightening sensitivity to interest rates.
  • Elevated leverage and weak liquidity: Debt-to-equity stands at 1.51x with total debt to capitalization of 61.74%, while the current ratio of 0.49 and quick ratio of 0.21 reflect reliance on revolving credit and capital markets. ROE of 8.37% and ROA of 2.91% are modest, and the negative FCF yield means the balance sheet offers little cushion if credit spreads widen.
  • Underperformance versus the market: The stock's 7.48% one-year return trails the S&P 500's 15.53% by more than eight percentage points, and it has underperformed SPY by 5.37 points over three months and 6.35 points over six months. This relative weakness suggests the market is not rewarding the utility's defensive characteristics in the current environment.
  • Seasonal earnings distortion and low trailing EPS: Trailing EPS of $0.05 is a seasonal artifact, with Q3 2025 net income of $475 million (26.45% margin) versus Q4 2025's $84.3 million (6.35% margin). The forward PE of 18.28x relies on consensus EPS of $5.96, and any shortfall in normalized earnings could pressure the multiple.

EVRG Technical Analysis

Evergy is in a broad, mildly constructive uptrend that has recently transitioned into a range-bound consolidation. The stock is up 7.48% over the trailing year and 13.98% year-to-date, and at $83.30 it sits at roughly 69% of its 52-week range of $71.41 to $88.62 — closer to the upper end than the middle, but still about 6.0% below the 52-week high. That positioning suggests the stock retains underlying momentum without being technically overextended, leaving room for a push toward the highs if the recent recovery holds. The 52-week range itself is relatively narrow at about 24% peak-to-trough, consistent with a low-beta regulated utility rather than a high-volatility growth name.

Short-term momentum has turned decisively positive and is now diverging from the medium-term trend. The stock has gained 3.62% over the past month versus a 1.22% gain for SPY, producing a relative strength of +2.40 percentage points, and it has rallied from a September 24 low of $77.66 to $83.30 — a 7.3% bounce — including a 2.12% single-day jump on the latest session from a previous close of $81.57. That one-month strength contrasts with a 2.68% decline over three months and a 5.37-point relative underperformance versus SPY over that same window, a classic mean-reversion pattern after a late-summer pullback. The 1.13% six-month gain and 1.73-point absolute price change confirm the stock spent most of the period treading water before this October recovery, and the 1.91 million share volume on the up-move lends modest confirmation to the turn.

Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the September swing low of $77.66, with the 52-week low of $71.41 as the deeper floor, while resistance is anchored at the 52-week high of $88.62, roughly 6.4% above the current $83.30. A breakout above $88.62 would signal a fresh leg higher and likely draw momentum and income funds, whereas a breakdown below $77.66 would reopen the path toward the $71.41 low and suggest the October bounce failed. Volatility is unusually low — beta of 0.482 means the stock moves roughly half as much as SPY, and the maximum drawdown of -11.88% over the period is modest — which supports larger position sizing for risk-budgeted portfolios but also implies limited upside torque absent a fundamental catalyst such as a favorable rate case or accretive data-center load contract.

Beta

0.48

0.48x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-11.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$71-$89

Price range past year

Annual Return

+8.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodEVRG ReturnS&P 500
1m+7.7%-1.0%
3m-3.2%+2.9%
6m+3.9%+6.5%
1y+8.4%+13.1%
ytd+15.5%+11.4%

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EVRG Fundamental Analysis

Revenue is growing at a steady, utility-appropriate pace rather than accelerating. Second-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.5001 billion rose 5.13% year-over-year from $1.4269 billion in Q2 2025, extending a consistent cadence of mid-single-digit top-line expansion across recent quarters ($1.4437 billion in Q1 2026, $1.3282 billion in Q4 2025, $1.7959 billion in Q3 2025). The sequential pattern reflects normal electric-utility seasonality — summer and winter peak-load quarters out-earn shoulder quarters — and the single reported segment, Electric Utility, at $7.581 billion, confirms there is no diversification buffer or drag. The growth trend is supportive of the investment case because it reflects rate-base expansion and constructive regulatory outcomes rather than volume-driven cyclicality, but 5% revenue growth alone will not re-rate the stock without corresponding margin and EPS delivery.

Profitability is solid and improving at the operating line, though reported net margins are distorted by seasonality. Q2 2026 net income was $215 million on a 14.33% net margin, up from $171.3 million and a 12.01% margin in Q2 2025, while operating margin reached 25.37% and EBITDA came in at $703.2 million (46.88% EBITDA margin). The trailing gross margin of 32.28% and operating margin of 25.19% are consistent with regulated electric utilities, where fuel pass-throughs compress gross margins but stable allowed returns support operating profitability. The key caveat is earnings quality across the year: Q3 2025 delivered $475 million of net income and a 26.45% margin versus Q4 2025's $84.3 million and 6.35% margin, so the trailing EPS of $0.05 is a seasonal artifact and should be disregarded in favor of the $5.96 consensus forward EPS, which implies a normalized earnings base far above the reported trailing figure.

Balance-sheet leverage is elevated but typical for the sector, and cash flow is the principal fundamental risk. Debt-to-equity stands at 1.51x with total debt to capitalization of 61.74% and long-term debt to capitalization of 54.64%, while the current ratio of 0.49 and quick ratio of 0.21 reflect the utility's reliance on revolving credit and capital markets rather than balance-sheet liquidity. Free cash flow is deeply negative — -$1.406 billion trailing twelve months, with Q2 2026 alone at -$611.3 million against $959.9 million of capital expenditure — as the company funds grid modernization and renewable buildout, and the dividend payout ratio of 71.66% ($157.7 million paid in Q2 2026) consumes most of operating cash flow of $348.6 million. ROE of 8.37% and ROA of 2.91% are modest but within regulated-utility norms, and the negative FCF yield means the dividend and growth capex are effectively financed with debt, making the company sensitive to interest-rate and credit-spread movements.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.5B

2026-06

Revenue YoY Growth

+5.1%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

25.4%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-1.4B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Electric Utility Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is EVRG Overvalued?

Because Evergy is profitable on a normalized basis but its trailing EPS of $0.05 is a seasonal artifact, the trailing PE of 19.54x is not the right anchor; the forward PE of 18.28x against consensus EPS of $5.96 is the more meaningful metric, and the modest gap between trailing and forward multiples reflects the market's expectation of normalized earnings rather than explosive growth. The PEG ratio of -9.26 is mathematically meaningless given the near-zero trailing earnings base and should be ignored. On a cash-flow basis, the PCF ratio of 8.17x looks inexpensive, but the negative price-to-free-cash-flow ratio underscores that cash flow, not earnings, is the constraint on this business.

Relative to the broader utility sector, Evergy screens as a modest value. Its forward PE of 18.28x, price-to-book of 1.63x, and EV/EBITDA of 12.0x are broadly in line with or slightly below the typical regulated electric utility range of roughly 16-20x forward earnings and 1.5-2.0x book, while the 3.67% dividend yield exceeds the sector's typical 3.0-3.5% payout. The PS ratio of 2.82x and EV/Sales of 5.80x are reasonable for a capital-intensive regulated business with a 14.45% net margin and 25.19% operating margin. The discount to higher-quality utility peers is arguably justified by the negative free cash flow, 1.51x debt-to-equity leverage, and below-sector-average ROE of 8.37%, but the yield and low beta of 0.482 make the valuation defensible for income and defensive mandates.

Historically, Evergy's valuation sits in the middle-to-upper portion of its own band. The price-to-book ratio of 1.63x compares with a historical range of roughly 1.20x to 1.95x over the past several years, and the current reading is above the 1.42-1.60x levels seen through much of 2024 and early 2025 but below the 1.95x peak recorded in Q2 2026. The forward PE of 18.28x is elevated relative to the 14-16x multiples the stock commanded in 2024 but well below the 23-31x trailing readings distorted by seasonal earnings troughs. The market is therefore pricing in a modestly optimistic scenario — stable rate-base growth, normalized earnings recovery, and continued dividend support — without embedding aggressive multiple expansion, leaving the stock fairly valued with limited margin of safety but a yield-supported floor.

PE

19.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 8x~53x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

12.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial and operational risks are dominated by the company's negative free cash flow of -$1.406 billion trailing twelve months, driven by $959.9 million of quarterly capital expenditure against operating cash flow of only $348.6 million in Q2 2026. The dividend payout ratio of 71.66% consumes most of operating cash flow, leaving little room for unexpected expenses or revenue shortfalls. Debt-to-equity of 1.51x and total debt to capitalization of 61.74% indicate elevated leverage, while the current ratio of 0.49 and quick ratio of 0.21 reflect reliance on revolving credit and capital markets. ROE of 8.37% and ROA of 2.91% are modest, and the negative FCF yield means the dividend and growth capex are effectively financed with debt, making the company sensitive to interest-rate and credit-spread movements.

Market and competitive risks include valuation compression if interest rates remain elevated, as the forward PE of 18.28x is above the 14-16x multiples the stock commanded in 2024. The stock's beta of 0.482 provides some insulation from market volatility, but its 7.48% one-year return trails the S&P 500's 15.53% by more than eight percentage points, and it has underperformed SPY by 5.37 points over three months. Regulatory headwinds are a persistent threat, with the wide analyst target range of $80.00 to $103.00 (29% spread) signaling dispersion in assumptions about rate-case outcomes. Additionally, the company's significant wind energy portfolio exposes it to potential changes in renewable energy tax credits or state-level energy policies.

Worst-case scenario: a combination of unfavorable rate-case decisions, rising interest rates, and continued free-cash-flow deterioration could force equity issuance or a dividend cut, compressing the valuation multiple toward the low end of its historical range. The 52-week low of $71.41 represents a 14.3% decline from the current $83.30, while the analyst low target of $80.00 implies a 4.0% downside. A more severe scenario, such as a credit downgrade or a regulatory disallowance, could push the stock toward the 52-week low, resulting in a loss of approximately 14% from current levels. The maximum drawdown over the period was -11.88%, suggesting that a 12-15% decline is a realistic downside in an adverse scenario.

FAQ

The most severe risk is financial: negative free cash flow of -$1.41 billion and a 71.66% dividend payout ratio mean the dividend and growth capex are debt-financed, and any deterioration could force equity issuance or a dividend cut. Second, regulatory risk: adverse rate-case decisions in Kansas or Missouri could compress margins and pressure the valuation multiple. Third, interest-rate risk: with debt-to-equity of 1.51x, rising rates increase borrowing costs and make the 3.67% yield less attractive relative to bonds. Fourth, competitive and macro risks: the stock's 7.48% one-year return trails the S&P 500's 15.53%, and sector rotation away from defensives could further weigh on performance.

Our 12-month forecast has three scenarios: a bull case (25% probability) targeting $90-$103 on successful rate cases and data-center load growth; a base case (55% probability) targeting $85-$92 on steady revenue growth and normalized earnings; and a bear case (20% probability) targeting $71-$80 on regulatory setbacks or free-cash-flow deterioration. The base case is most likely, assuming revenue growth remains in the 4-6% range and interest rates stay stable. The key assumption is that forward EPS meets the consensus of $5.96, supporting the current forward PE of 18.28x.

EVRG appears fairly valued relative to its history and peers. The forward PE of 18.28x is slightly below the typical regulated utility range of 16-20x, while the price-to-book of 1.63x is within the historical 1.20-1.95x band. The dividend yield of 3.67% exceeds the sector average of 3.0-3.5%, providing income support. However, the negative free cash flow and 1.51x debt-to-equity justify a discount to higher-quality peers. The market is pricing in stable rate-base growth and normalized earnings recovery without aggressive multiple expansion, leaving limited margin of safety but a yield-supported floor.

EVRG offers a balanced risk/reward for income-oriented investors, with a 3.67% dividend yield and a low beta of 0.482 providing defensive characteristics. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $90.45, implying 8.6% upside, but the stock's negative free cash flow of -$1.41 billion and elevated leverage (debt-to-equity 1.51x) are significant concerns. The biggest downside risk is a dividend cut or equity issuance if free cash flow remains negative, which could push the stock toward the 52-week low of $71.41 (14.3% downside). For long-term investors comfortable with utility-sector risks and seeking income, EVRG is a reasonable buy at current levels, but those seeking growth should look elsewhere.

EVRG is best suited for long-term, income-oriented investors given its regulated utility model, 3.67% dividend yield, and low beta of 0.482. The stock's low volatility and stable cash flows make it appropriate for conservative portfolios, but the negative free cash flow and capital-intensive growth program require a multi-year horizon to realize returns. Short-term traders may find limited upside torque absent a catalyst, as the stock's 24% 52-week range and 11.88% maximum drawdown offer modest trading opportunities. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to capture dividend income and potential rate-base growth.