Ford Motor Company
F
$14.68
-1.21%
Ford Motor Company manufactures automobiles under its Ford and Lincoln brands, operating in the global automotive industry. With over 13% market share in the United States and about 10% in the UK, it is a legacy automaker transitioning toward electric vehicles through its Ford Model e unit. The current investor narrative centers on Ford's restructuring into Ford Blue (combustion) and Ford Model e (BEV) businesses, with attention on its EV strategy, margin recovery, and the upcoming Q2 earnings report on July 28, 2026, which will be crucial for the stock's direction.…
F
Ford Motor Company
$14.68
Related headlines
F 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ford Motor Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $15.78 and implied upside of +7.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$15.78
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+7.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$11 - $20
Analyst target range
Ford is covered by 20 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' (mean rating 2.71 on a 1-5 scale). The average target price is $15.05, implying approximately 4.7% upside from the current price of $14.37. The distribution leans neutral, with recent ratings from BNP Paribas (Neutral), Barclays (Equal Weight), and Citigroup (Neutral), while UBS and BofA maintain Buy ratings. The target range spans from a low of $11.00 to a high of $20.00, a spread of $9.00 (81.8% of the average target), indicating high uncertainty. The high target of $20.00 assumes successful execution of Ford's EV strategy and margin expansion, while the low target of $11.00 prices in continued losses from EV investments and market share erosion. Recent analyst actions show no major upgrades or downgrades, with most firms maintaining their ratings. The wide target spread reflects the binary nature of Ford's turnaround story, with significant upside potential but also substantial downside risk.
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Bulls vs Bears: F Investment Factors
Ford presents a classic value-versus-turnaround debate. On the bull side, a forward P/E of 7.88x, 5.73% dividend yield, and 6.4% revenue growth suggest the stock is cheap with income support. On the bear side, a debt-to-equity of 4.66x, negative trailing earnings, and -22.8% ROE highlight financial fragility. The single most important tension is whether Ford can stabilize its EV losses and achieve consistent profitability—if it does, the low valuation could re-rate significantly; if not, the high debt load and competitive pressures could drive the stock toward the $11 low target. Currently, the bear case has slightly stronger evidence given the earnings volatility and leverage, but the bull case is compelling for patient value investors.
Bullish
- Forward P/E Discount to Peers: Ford's forward P/E of 7.88x is 21-34% below the auto industry average of 10-12x, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to peers if earnings normalize. This discount provides a margin of safety for value-oriented investors.
- Revenue Growth Momentum: Q1 2026 revenue of $43.25B grew 6.4% YoY, and the 3-month price change of +16.1% significantly outpaced the S&P 500's +3.5%, indicating improving operational momentum. The company also benefits from a $100B+ backlog of strategic agreements, including a Ford-Micron deal.
- High Dividend Yield: Ford offers a dividend yield of 5.73%, well above the S&P 500 average of ~1.5%, providing income while waiting for earnings recovery. The payout ratio of -36.5% (negative due to TTM losses) is unsustainable, but the company has maintained dividends historically.
- Analyst Upside Potential: The average analyst target of $15.05 implies 4.7% upside from $14.37, with a high target of $20.00 representing 39.2% upside. The consensus 'hold' rating reflects caution, but the wide target range suggests significant optionality if EV execution improves.
Bearish
- Negative Trailing P/E and Earnings Volatility: The trailing P/E of -6.37x reflects a TTM net loss driven by a $11.06B loss in Q4 2025, highlighting extreme earnings instability. Even adjusted earnings are inconsistent, with net margins swinging from -24.1% to 5.9% in consecutive quarters.
- High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Debt-to-equity of 4.66x is extremely high, indicating significant financial leverage. This amplifies risk during downturns and limits financial flexibility, especially as free cash flow turned negative -$1.06B in Q1 2026.
- Negative ROE and Margin Pressure: ROE is -22.8% due to the Q4 2025 loss, and gross margins remain low at 12.2% TTM (though Q1 2026 improved to 18.4%). EV investments and commodity costs continue to compress profitability, with operating margin only 1.35% TTM.
- Wide Analyst Target Range: The analyst target spread from $11.00 to $20.00 (81.8% of average) signals extreme uncertainty about Ford's turnaround. The low target implies 23.5% downside from current levels, reflecting risks from EV losses and market share erosion.
F Technical Analysis
Ford stock is in a recovery trend after a sharp decline, with a 1-year price change of +27.6%. The current price of $14.37 sits at 54% of its 52-week range ($10.68-$17.78), indicating it has recovered from lows but remains below the highs. This positioning suggests the stock is in a mid-range recovery phase, not yet overextended but showing momentum after a significant pullback. Short-term momentum is strong: the 1-month change is +3.8% and the 3-month change is +16.1%, both outpacing the S&P 500's respective gains of 0.78% and 3.5%. This acceleration from the longer-term trend (1-year +27.6%) indicates a recent bullish shift, potentially signaling a trend reversal from the June slump. The stock's beta of 1.828 implies it is 82.8% more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves. Key support is at the 52-week low of $10.68, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $17.78. A breakout above $17.78 would signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $10.68 could indicate further weakness. The high beta suggests aggressive position sizing is warranted but with tight risk management.
Beta
1.83
1.83x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$11-$18
Price range past year
Annual Return
+32.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | F Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +7.6% | +0.2% |
| 3m | +23.6% | +3.7% |
| 6m | +5.8% | +8.0% |
| 1y | +32.6% | +18.2% |
| ytd | +10.0% | +9.6% |
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F Fundamental Analysis
Ford's revenue trajectory shows growth but with volatility: Q1 2026 revenue was $43.25 billion, up 6.4% year-over-year from Q1 2025's $40.66 billion. However, the prior quarter (Q4 2025) saw revenue of $45.89 billion, and the trailing twelve months show a mixed trend with Q3 2025 at $50.53 billion. The growth is driven by the Ford Credit segment ($3.43 billion) and core auto sales, but the company faces headwinds from EV losses and supply disruptions. Profitability is inconsistent: Q1 2026 net income was $2.55 billion (net margin 5.9%), a sharp recovery from Q4 2025's net loss of $11.06 billion (net margin -24.1%). Gross margin improved to 18.4% in Q1 2026 from 3.7% in Q4 2025, but remains below the 2024 average of around 8-9%. The company is profitable on an adjusted basis but faces margin compression from EV investments and commodity costs. Balance sheet health is mixed: debt-to-equity is high at 4.66, and free cash flow was negative $1.06 billion in Q1 2026, though TTM free cash flow is $9.55 billion. The current ratio of 1.07 indicates adequate liquidity, but the high debt load (debt-to-equity 4.66) and negative free cash flow in the latest quarter raise concerns about financial flexibility. ROE is negative at -22.8% due to the large loss in Q4 2025, but the underlying business generates positive operating cash flow ($1.32 billion in Q1 2026).
Quarterly Revenue
$43.3B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
18.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$9.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is F Overvalued?
Since net income is positive on a trailing twelve-month basis (TTM net income $2.55 billion in Q1 2026, though Q4 2025 had a loss), we use the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is -6.37 (due to negative TTM earnings), but the forward P/E is 7.88, indicating the market expects earnings to recover. The gap between negative trailing and positive forward P/E reflects the large Q4 2025 loss and anticipated normalization. Compared to the auto industry average P/E of around 10-12x, Ford's forward P/E of 7.88 represents a discount of approximately 21-34%, suggesting the market is pricing in below-average growth or higher risk. Historically, Ford's P/E has ranged from 1.7x (Q4 2021) to over 26x (Q2 2021), with the current forward P/E of 7.88 near the lower end of its historical band. This low multiple could indicate a value opportunity if earnings recover, but also reflects skepticism about sustainable profitability given the company's EV transition costs and competitive pressures.
PE
-6.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 2x~16x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-42.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Ford's balance sheet is stretched with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.66x, far above the auto industry average. Free cash flow turned negative $1.06B in Q1 2026, and the TTM net margin is -4.4% due to the massive Q4 2025 loss of $11.06B. The company's reliance on its Ford Credit segment for stable earnings adds complexity, and the high dividend payout (5.73% yield) may be at risk if cash flow remains pressured. Earnings volatility is extreme, with net income swinging from -$11.06B to +$2.55B in consecutive quarters, making forecasting unreliable.
Market & Competitive Risks: Ford's beta of 1.828 makes it 82.8% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside during selloffs. The stock trades at a forward P/E discount to peers, but this could be a value trap if the industry faces cyclical downturn or if EV competition from Tesla and Chinese manufacturers intensifies. Recent news highlights aluminum supply disruptions hurting F-150 sales, and the company's China market share is only ~1%, limiting growth. Regulatory risks around EV mandates and fuel economy standards could also pressure margins.
Worst-Case Scenario: If Ford's EV losses continue to mount, the dividend is cut, and a recession hits auto demand, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $10.68, representing a 25.6% decline from the current $14.37. In a severe downturn, the analyst low target of $11.00 could be breached, implying a 23.5% loss. The historical max drawdown of -23.39% suggests similar magnitude is possible, and the high debt load could force asset sales or equity dilution, further pressuring the stock.
