Ford Motor Company
F
$12.36
+3.43%
Ford Motor Company designs, manufactures, and sells vehicles under the Ford and Lincoln brands, operates a captive financing arm (Ford Credit), and is one of the largest automakers in the world, with roughly 13% US market share, about 10% in the UK, and just over 1% in China including Taiwan and unconsolidated affiliates; the US accounted for roughly 65% of 2025 revenue. Ford is a legacy-scale incumbent rather than a disruptor, differentiated by its F-Series franchise, commercial and fleet leadership, and a captive finance book that smooths cyclicality, but it is structurally a low-margin, capital-intensive manufacturer competing against GM, Stellantis, Toyota, and a rising wave of Chinese EV makers led by BYD. The current investor narrative is dominated by the cost of Ford's EV reset: a 2025 full-year net loss of $11.06 billion driven by EV-related charges, a subsequent swing back to profitability in Q1 2026 followed by a Q2 2026 loss of $1.33 billion, and a stock that has fallen 6.0% over the past year against a 13.1% gain for the S&P 500. Debate centers on whether the combustion-heavy Ford Blue and Ford Pro businesses can generate enough cash to fund the Model e transition, whether the Geely EV-platform partnership can lower development costs in Europe and Asia, and how 2025-era auto tariffs and Chinese competition will pressure margins; the 5.7% dividend yield is the central pillar of the bull case, while bears point to negative trailing earnings and a 4.66x debt-to-equity ratio.…
F
Ford Motor Company
$12.36
Related headlines
F 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ford Motor Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $15.39 and implied upside of +24.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$15.39
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+24.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$12 - $20
Analyst target range
Coverage is broad, with 18 analysts and a consensus recommendation of "buy" (mean rating 2.35 on a scale where lower is more bullish). The average target price is $15.55778, which implies +34.1% upside from the current $11.60 — a striking gap for a large-cap stock and one that suggests the sell-side is anchored to pre-decline models rather than the current earnings trajectory. The consensus leans bullish in label but is more mixed in substance: recent actions include Citigroup upgrading to Buy from Neutral and Jefferies upgrading to Buy from Hold in late July, offset by BNP Paribas, RBC Capital, and TD Cowen maintaining Neutral/Sector Perform/Hold ratings, and Barclays holding Equal Weight.
The target range of $12.80 to $20.00 is wide — a 56% spread from low to high — which signals genuine disagreement about the EV reset's terminal cost and the durability of combustion profits. The $20.00 high target requires multiple expansion toward 1.0x sales and a credible path to the $2.83 consensus EPS, likely contingent on tariff relief, successful Geely-platform cost sharing, and a stabilized Model e loss. The $12.80 low target is only 10.3% above the current price and effectively prices in continued margin compression, flat-to-declining revenue, and a dividend that may need to be right-sized; notably, even the low target sits above the 52-week low of $11.11, implying analysts see limited further downside. The estimated EPS range of $2.67506 to $2.99388 is unusually tight for a company with this much earnings volatility, which suggests the estimates are stale relative to the Q2 2026 loss and carry meaningful downgrade risk.
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Bulls vs Bears: F Investment Factors
The bear case currently carries stronger evidence: Ford is in an accelerating downtrend, revenue is declining 3.76% year-over-year, trailing earnings are negative, and leverage is 4.66x debt-to-equity, so the cheap 0.279x sales multiple reflects real deterioration rather than a mispricing. The bull case rests on cash generation ($7.28 billion trailing FCF), a 5.73% dividend yield, and a sell-side target of $15.56 that implies 34.1% upside, but those targets look anchored to pre-decline models given the tight $2.68-$2.99 EPS range against a Q2 loss. The single most important tension is whether Ford Blue and Ford Pro can generate enough cash to fund Model e without further charges: if Q3 2026 shows a return to Q1-like profitability, the value case reasserts itself; if another EV charge lands, the stock breaks $11.11 and the dividend becomes the next question.
Bullish
- Deep discount on sales and forward earnings: Ford trades at 0.279x price-to-sales and 0.997x EV/Sales on roughly $190 billion of annualized revenue, and at 6.05x forward EPS versus a market multiple near 20x. Even a modest re-rating toward 0.4x sales would imply a materially higher share price, which is why the sell-side average target of $15.56 sits 34.1% above the current $11.60.
- Dividend yield of 5.73% anchors valuation: The 5.73% yield is roughly four times the market yield and is backed by trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $7.28 billion. Q2 2026 alone generated $1.963 billion of FCF against $599 million of dividends paid, meaning the payout consumed only about 30% of quarterly free cash flow.
- Analyst consensus still leans positive: Eighteen analysts carry a mean rating of 2.35 (buy) with an average target of $15.56, and Citigroup and Jefferies both upgraded to Buy in late July. Even the $12.80 low target sits 10.3% above the current price, suggesting the sell-side sees limited further downside from here.
- Ford Pro and F-Series cash engine: The industrial business generated $44.891 billion of Q2 2026 revenue versus $3.405 billion from Ford Credit, and Q1 2026 produced $2.548 billion of net income on an 18.36% gross margin. The combustion-heavy Ford Blue and commercial Pro franchises remain the cash source funding the Model e reset, and a return to Q1-like profitability would validate the forward EPS estimate of $2.83.
Bearish
- Falling knife at 2.8% above 52-week low: At $11.60 the stock sits just 2.8% above its 52-week low of $11.11 and 34.8% below its $17.78 high, roughly 7% of the way up the range. It has fallen 19.28% over three months and 13.04% year-to-date, with a 33.49% max drawdown confirming persistent lower highs and lower lows.
- Earnings are negative and wildly erratic: Q2 2026 posted a $1.327 billion net loss and EPS of -$0.33, with a 1.35% operating margin and negative $236 million EBITDA, following Q4 2025's $11.064 billion loss. Trailing net margin is -4.37% and ROE is -22.76%, so the 6.05x forward PE rests on an earnings recovery that has not yet appeared.
- Leverage leaves no margin for error: Debt-to-equity is 4.66x, total debt to capitalization is 82.05%, and the equity multiplier is 7.99x, while the current ratio of 1.075 and quick ratio of 0.932 are thin. With a 1.35% operating margin, a tariff or pricing shock flows almost directly to the bottom line.
- Revenue is contracting, not growing: Q2 2026 revenue of $48.296 billion fell 3.76% year-over-year from $50.184 billion, and Q4 2025 revenue of $45.890 billion was down from $48.211 billion. The analyst consensus of $215.4 billion for the forward year implies roughly 12% growth that is not visible in reported results, leaving estimates exposed to downward revision.
F Technical Analysis
Ford is in a sustained downtrend that has recently accelerated into a breakdown. The stock is down 5.9968% over the past year, 13.0435% year-to-date, and 19.2763% over three months, and at $11.60 it sits just 2.8% above its 52-week low of $11.11 and 34.8% below its 52-week high of $17.78 — roughly 7% of the way up the 52-week range. That positioning is characteristic of a falling knife rather than a value entry: the stock is pressing against the bottom of its range with no evidence of basing, and the 33.49% max drawdown confirms a persistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Relative strength is uniformly negative across every window — -9.34% versus SPY over one month, -22.13% over three months, -19.13% over one year, and -24.49% year-to-date — meaning Ford is not merely declining but is being actively de-rated relative to the market.
Short-term momentum is deteriorating, not stabilizing. The 1-month change of -10.3555% is worse than the 3-month change of -19.2763% would imply on a run-rate basis, and the most recent session alone saw a -2.8476% drop from $11.94 to $11.60 on volume of 44.1 million shares, indicating distribution rather than capitulation. The stock rallied hard from $11.50 on May 4 to $17.44 on May 29 — a 51.7% move in under four weeks — and has since given back essentially all of that gain, a classic failed breakout that traps late buyers and reinforces overhead supply. There is no positive divergence to point to: the 6-month change of -6.3005% is better than the 3-month figure, confirming that the damage is concentrated in the most recent quarter and that momentum is decelerating rather than mean-reverting.
Key levels are clean and close. Support sits at the 52-week low of $11.11, only 4.2% below the current $11.60; a decisive break there would open a vacuum with no nearby technical floor and likely trigger momentum-driven selling. Resistance is layered: the $12.40-$12.50 area where the stock traded in late April and again in mid-October, then the $14.00-$14.50 congestion zone from July and August, and ultimately the $17.78 high. With a beta of 1.939, Ford is roughly 94% more volatile than the S&P 500, so a 4% move to support is well within a single session's normal range — position sizing must account for roughly double the market's daily variance, and the 2.73 short ratio suggests short sellers are not yet crowded enough to engineer a squeeze.
Beta
1.94
1.94x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-33.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$11-$18
Price range past year
Annual Return
-6.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | F Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.5% | +0.7% |
| 3m | -15.8% | +3.0% |
| 6m | +4.0% | +6.8% |
| 1y | -6.6% | +11.9% |
| ytd | -7.3% | +12.8% |
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F Fundamental Analysis
Ford's revenue trajectory is stagnating and slightly contracting. Q2 2026 revenue of $48.296 billion fell 3.76% year-over-year from $50.184 billion in Q2 2025, following Q1 2026 revenue of $43.253 billion (up from $40.659 billion a year earlier) and Q4 2025 revenue of $45.890 billion (down from $48.211 billion). The segment split shows $44.891 billion from the company excluding Ford Credit versus $3.405 billion from Ford Credit, meaning the industrial business carries roughly 93% of the top line and the finance arm is a modest but stable earnings contributor. The pattern is one of a business treading water at a ~$180-190 billion annualized run rate, with the analyst consensus of $215.4 billion for the forward year implying roughly 12% growth that has not yet appeared in reported results — a gap that makes the forward estimates vulnerable to downward revision.
Profitability is highly erratic and currently negative. Q2 2026 produced a net loss of $1.327 billion and EPS of -$0.33, with a gross margin of 12.59% ($6.08 billion gross profit on $48.296 billion revenue) and an operating margin of just 1.35%; the quarter's EBITDA was -$236 million. The swing from Q1 2026's $2.548 billion net income and 18.36% gross margin to a Q2 loss reflects the volatility of the EV reset and other charges — Q4 2025 alone posted a $11.064 billion net loss on a 3.72% gross margin, driven by a $13.903 billion other-expense line. Trailing net margin is -4.37% and ROE is -22.76%, and while the 12.18% gross margin is roughly in line with what is typical for mass-market automakers, the 1.35% operating margin leaves almost no buffer against tariff or pricing shocks.
Balance sheet leverage is the dominant financial risk. Debt-to-equity stands at 4.66x, total debt to capitalization is 82.05%, and the equity multiplier is 7.99x — Ford is a highly levered balance sheet where the captive finance arm accounts for much of the debt but the industrial business still carries meaningful obligations. Liquidity is adequate but not generous: current ratio of 1.075, quick ratio of 0.932, and $18.896 billion of cash at the end of Q2 2026. The offset is genuine cash generation: trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $7.28 billion, Q2 2026 FCF was $1.963 billion on $4.345 billion of operating cash flow against $2.382 billion of capex, and the company paid $599 million in dividends in the quarter — a payout that consumes roughly 30% of quarterly FCF and is covered, but leaves little room for error given the -0.365 payout ratio on trailing GAAP earnings.
Quarterly Revenue
$48.3B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
-3.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
12.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$7.3B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is F Overvalued?
Because trailing net income is negative (EPS of -$0.157, trailing PE of -6.37x), the PE ratio is not a valid primary metric; I am leading with the price-to-sales ratio of 0.279x, supported by EV/Sales of 0.997x and a forward PE of 6.05x. The forward PE is the more informative number: it implies the market expects roughly $1.92 of forward EPS versus the analyst consensus of $2.83, and the gap between the negative trailing multiple and the 6.05x forward multiple reflects a market that is pricing a sharp earnings recovery but not fully crediting the consensus estimate. A 0.28x sales multiple is deeply depressed for a company with $190 billion-plus of revenue and signals that investors are valuing Ford on liquidation-adjacent assumptions rather than growth.
Against the auto manufacturers sector, Ford screens cheap on nearly every measure. The 0.279x PS ratio and 0.997x EV/Sales are well below the multiples typically commanded by profitable peers, and the 1.45x price-to-book is modest for a franchise with Ford's scale, though it is inflated by the 7.99x equity multiplier rather than by a rich earnings multiple. The 6.05x forward PE compares favorably to the market's ~20x, but that discount is arguably deserved: Ford's 1.35% operating margin, -4.37% net margin, and 4.66x debt-to-equity are materially worse than the sector's healthier names, and the 0.027 PEG ratio is a statistical artifact of near-zero or negative growth rather than evidence of undervaluation. The 5.73% dividend yield is the clearest valuation support — roughly four times the market yield — but it is a yield that exists because the price has fallen, not because the payout has grown.
Historically, Ford's own valuation band tells a cautionary story. The PS ratio has compressed from 1.147x in Q2 2026 and 1.138x in Q4 2025 to 0.279x today, and price-to-book has fallen from 1.55x to 1.45x while the stock's price-to-free-cash-flow ratio sits at 28.2x on the trailing basis versus 47.5x at year-end 2025. The stock is near the bottom of its multi-year valuation range on sales and book, which can signal either a deep-value opportunity or fundamental deterioration — and with trailing earnings negative, ROE at -22.76%, and revenue declining 3.76% year-over-year, the evidence currently favors the latter. The market is not mispricing Ford's assets; it is discounting the cash flows those assets are expected to produce.
PE
-6.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 2x~16x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-42.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risk centers on a levered balance sheet with almost no earnings buffer. Debt-to-equity of 4.66x and total debt to capitalization of 82.05% sit alongside a 1.35% operating margin and negative $236 million Q2 2026 EBITDA, meaning a modest revenue or pricing shock flows straight to equity. Earnings volatility is extreme: quarterly net income swung from $2.548 billion in Q1 2026 to -$1.327 billion in Q2 and -$11.064 billion in Q4 2025, driven by a $13.903 billion other-expense line. The dividend consumes roughly 30% of quarterly free cash flow ($599 million against $1.963 billion), which is covered today but leaves little room if FCF compresses.
Market and competitive risk is dominated by valuation compression and share loss. The stock has underperformed SPY by 22.13% over three months and 24.49% year-to-date, and with a beta of 1.939 it amplifies any market drawdown roughly twofold. BYD and Chinese automakers are gaining share in Europe, directly threatening Ford's roughly 10% UK position, while Stellantis' $25 billion North America strategy and GM's C$1 billion+ Canadian investment intensify the competitive spend race. Tariffs remain an active headwind, with the 2025-era auto tariffs and the 50% Canadian tariff threat pressuring margins that are already at 1.35% operating.
Worst case, a second consecutive EV charge plus a tariff escalation would push Q3 and Q4 2026 back into losses, forcing a dividend cut and analyst estimate cuts toward the $12.80 low target or below. A break of the $11.11 52-week low would open a technical vacuum with no nearby floor, and the 33.49% max drawdown shows how far the stock can fall in a persistent downtrend. From $11.60, a move to the 52-week low is -4.2%, and a retest of the drawdown magnitude would imply roughly -33% toward the $7.70 area, a realistic bear-case loss of 4% to 33% depending on whether support holds.