Fermi Inc
FRMI
$6.74
+6.81%
Fermi Inc is a specialized energy and infrastructure company developing private power campuses and high-performance computing facilities for AI-centric customers, operating in the regulated electric utility sector. The company positions itself as a niche player building grid-independent, hyperscale-ready energy generation and site infrastructure platforms, including substations, cooling systems, and powered shell buildings. Current investor attention centers on an activist shareholder campaign demanding board changes and a strategic review, which has driven sharp price movements, while the company faces execution risk from ongoing tenant acquisition challenges for its AI infrastructure project.…
FRMI
Fermi Inc
$6.74
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FRMI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Fermi Inc's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $8.76 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$8.76
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$5 - $9
Analyst target range
Only 3 analysts cover Fermi, with a consensus recommendation not explicitly provided but implied by the single rating action: Macquarie maintains an 'Outperform' rating, suggesting a bullish lean. The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $7.137, with a low of $0.736 and a high of $11.007, indicating wide dispersion and high uncertainty. The average estimated revenue is $5.376 billion, with a low of $1.667 billion and high of $7.618 billion, implying massive growth expectations from zero revenue. The average target price is not directly given, but using the forward PE of 18.06 and average EPS of $7.137 implies a target price of approximately $128.90, representing a staggering +1,856% upside from the current price of $6.59. The high target of $11.007 EPS at the same multiple would imply $198.80, while the low target of $0.736 EPS implies $13.29, still a +102% upside. The wide range between low and high targets reflects extreme uncertainty about the company's ability to execute and secure tenants. The limited analyst coverage (3 analysts) and lack of recent rating changes (only Macquarie's reiteration) suggest the stock is underfollowed, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The activist campaign and recent news of leadership shakeup add to the uncertainty, making the consensus targets highly speculative.
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FRMI Technical Analysis
Fermi's stock is in a severe downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -73% and currently trading at 17.8% of its 52-week range (price $6.59 vs. 52-week low $4.47 and high $36.99). This positioning near the low end of the range suggests the stock is deeply oversold and potentially a value opportunity, but also reflects persistent selling pressure and a lack of bullish conviction. The 3-month price change of +35.3% indicates a strong recovery from the March 2026 lows, yet the 6-month change of -28.2% underscores the broader downtrend, with the stock still down 25.3% year-to-date. Short-term momentum shows a 1-month decline of -4.4%, conflicting with the 3-month rally, which could signal a temporary pullback within a recovery attempt or a failed breakout. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 is negative over 1-month (-8.4%) and 6-month (-37.0%), confirming underperformance, though the 3-month relative strength of +24.2% highlights a recent period of outperformance. The 52-week low of $4.47 provides key support; a break below this level would signal further downside and potential capitulation. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $36.99, a distant level that would require a massive catalyst to test. Beta is not provided, but the stock's extreme volatility is evident from its 85.2% maximum drawdown and daily swings, indicating high risk for position sizing.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-85.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$4-$37
Price range past year
Annual Return
—
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FRMI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -5.6% | +1.4% |
| 3m | +15.6% | +7.4% |
| 6m | -30.4% | +8.6% |
| 1y | — | +20.3% |
| ytd | -23.6% | +10.3% |
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FRMI Fundamental Analysis
Fermi currently generates zero revenue, as evidenced by $0 revenue in the most recent quarter (Q3 2025) and all historical periods, with no revenue segments reported. The company is in a pre-revenue development stage, making traditional growth analysis inapplicable; the investment thesis hinges entirely on future tenant leasing and power sales. The lack of revenue means the company is burning cash, with net income of -$346.8 million in Q3 2025, a significant loss compared to -$6.3 million in Q2 2025 and -$77,831 in Q1 2025, indicating rapidly escalating losses as the campus development progresses. Gross margin is 0% due to zero revenue, and operating margin is also 0%, but the company's cost structure is dominated by SG&A expenses of $37.8 million in Q3 2025, up from $5.6 million in Q2 2025, reflecting scaling overhead. The company is deeply unprofitable with a trailing EPS of -$0.13 and a negative ROE of -44.4%, though the Q4 2025 net income of $353.2 million (driven by non-cash items) shows a temporary swing to profitability on an accounting basis. Free cash flow was negative $59.1 million in Q3 2025 but turned positive $104.6 million in Q4 2025, primarily due to changes in working capital and non-cash adjustments. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.12, indicating minimal leverage, but the current ratio of 2.31 suggests adequate liquidity. However, the company's reliance on external financing is evident from net cash from financing of $201.8 million in Q3 2025, and the negative free cash flow in most quarters implies dependence on capital markets to fund operations.
Quarterly Revenue
$0.0B
2025-09
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
Last 12 Months
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Valuation Analysis: Is FRMI Overvalued?
Since net income is negative (trailing EPS -$0.13), the trailing PE ratio of -7.08 is not meaningful; therefore, we lead with the price-to-sales (PS) ratio. However, PS ratio is reported as 0 due to zero revenue, making it uninformative. Instead, we use the price-to-book (PB) ratio of 3.42 as the primary valuation metric, as the company's asset base (including development infrastructure) provides a tangible value anchor. The forward PE ratio of 18.06 implies that analysts expect the company to become profitable within the next year, reflecting optimistic growth expectations embedded in the current price. Peer comparison is limited as the company operates in a unique niche with no direct comparable in the regulated electric utility sector; the PB of 3.42 is elevated relative to typical utility PB ratios around 1-2x, but this premium may be justified by the AI infrastructure growth narrative and potential for high returns on invested capital once operational. Historical context shows the PB ratio has fluctuated wildly, from extreme highs of 28,108 in Q1 2025 to 50.17 in Q3 2025, and now 3.42, indicating a significant compression from earlier levels. The current PB is near the lower end of its historical range, suggesting the market has priced in substantial risk and is valuing the company closer to its book value, which could imply either a value opportunity if the project succeeds or further downside if asset values deteriorate.
PE
-7.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -37965x~0x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-7.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
