Hilton Worldwide
HLT
$305.73
+1.05%
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is a global hospitality company operating approximately 1.38 million rooms across 27 brands spanning the premium economy through luxury segments, with Hampton and Hilton representing 27% and 18% of total rooms respectively as of December 31, 2025. The company operates primarily through a capital-light, fee-based model, with managed and franchised hotels generating the vast majority of adjusted EBITDA, predominantly from the Americas, and its brand portfolio has expanded through launches like Home2, Curio, Canopy, Spark, Tru, Tempo, LivSmart, and Outset, alongside partnerships with Small Luxury Hotels of the World and acquisitions of NoMad and Graduate Hotels. The current investor narrative centers on whether the broadening of travel demand beyond high-income consumers is sustainable, a question brought front and center by the company's Q1 2026 report, which featured solid results and raised guidance. However, sentiment has been tempered by notable institutional rotation, including Bill Ackman's fund exiting its Hilton stake in favor of AI-driven mega-cap names, contributing to the stock's recent underperformance relative to the broader market.…
HLT
Hilton Worldwide
$305.73
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy HLT Today?
Based on the synthesis of analyst consensus, valuation, and growth prospects, the recommendation is a Hold with a bias toward accumulation on weakness. The core thesis is that Hilton's premium valuation and recent negative momentum offset its strong fundamentals and 15.5% upside to the average analyst target of $353.00. The consensus recommendation is 'buy' with a mean of 1.96, but the stock's recent underperformance and institutional rotation warrant caution.
Supporting evidence includes revenue growth of 8.98% YoY in Q1 2026, EBITDA margin expansion to 24.86%, and robust free cash flow of $2.161 billion TTM. The forward PE of 29.24x is more reasonable than the trailing 46.48x, suggesting expected earnings growth. However, the EV/EBITDA of 27.87x and PS of 5.63x are rich, leaving little room for error. The implied upside to the average target is 15.5%, but the wide target range ($270-$394) signals high uncertainty.
Key risks that could invalidate the thesis include a slowdown in travel demand, margin compression, and further institutional outflows. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock pulls back to the 52-week low of $253.54 (17% downside) or if forward PE compresses below 25x. It would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 5% or if EBITDA margin falls below 20%. Relative to its history, the stock is fairly valued to slightly overvalued, trading in the upper-middle of its historical PE range.
Sign up to view all
HLT 12-Month Price Forecast
Hilton presents a balanced risk-reward profile, with strong fundamentals offset by a premium valuation and recent negative momentum. The company's asset-light model and brand strength support long-term growth, but the stock's high multiples and dependence on sustainable travel demand broadening create near-term uncertainty. The analyst consensus is moderately bullish, but the wide target range and institutional rotation suggest caution. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock pulls back to the 52-week low of $253.54 or if forward PE compresses below 25x with maintained growth. I would downgrade to bearish if revenue growth falls below 5% or if EBITDA margin drops below 20%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Hilton Worldwide's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $353.00 and implied upside of +15.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$353.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+15.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$270 - $394
Analyst target range
Hilton is covered by 26 analysts with a consensus recommendation of "buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.96, indicating a moderately bullish stance, and the average target price of $353.00 implies approximately 15.5% upside from the current price of $305.73. The consensus leans bullish but not overwhelmingly so, with the recommendation mean of 1.96 sitting between a strong buy (1.0) and hold (3.0), and the recent institutional ratings show a mix of Overweight and Buy ratings from Morgan Stanley, UBS, Barclays, and JP Morgan, balanced by Neutral and Hold ratings from Mizuho, Susquehanna, Truist, and Bernstein. The absence of any recent upgrades or downgrades in the institutional ratings data suggests analysts are in a holding pattern, waiting for clearer evidence on the sustainability of travel demand broadening before adjusting their positions. The target price range spans from a low of $270.00 to a high of $394.00, a spread of $124 or approximately 46% of the low target, which signals meaningful disagreement among analysts about the company's trajectory. The high target of $394.00 implies roughly 28.9% upside and likely assumes accelerating unit growth, continued margin expansion, and multiple expansion as the market rewards Hilton's asset-light model, while the low target of $270.00 implies about 11.7% downside and likely prices in margin compression, a consumer travel slowdown, or competitive share loss. The wide spread indicates high uncertainty, and with the stock currently trading below the average target and near the lower end of the range, the risk-reward skews modestly positive, though the recent negative momentum and institutional rotation out of the name suggest caution is warranted until the demand sustainability question is resolved.
Drowning in data?
Find the real signal!
Bulls vs Bears: HLT Investment Factors
The bull case rests on Hilton's resilient fee-based model, strong cash flow generation, and solid revenue growth, supported by a consensus buy rating and 15.5% upside to average analyst targets. However, the bear case is gaining traction due to the stock's premium valuation, recent negative momentum, and institutional rotation out of the name. The most critical tension is whether the broadening of travel demand beyond high-income consumers can be sustained; if it can, the premium multiple is justified, but if it cannot, the stock could face significant multiple compression. Currently, the bear evidence appears stronger given the sharp recent underperformance and valuation risk, but the long-term fundamentals remain intact.
Bullish
- Fee-based model drives margin expansion: Q1 2026 EBITDA grew 22.5% YoY to $730 million, expanding EBITDA margin from 22.12% to 24.86%, as the high-margin management and franchise segment generated $696 million in revenue. This capital-light model requires minimal capital expenditure and scales efficiently with unit growth.
- Revenue growth remains solid at 8.98% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue of $2.937 billion grew 8.98% from $2.695 billion in Q1 2025, continuing a multi-quarter trend of sequential strength. This growth is driven by unit expansion and RevPAR gains, supporting the premium valuation.
- Strong free cash flow funds aggressive buybacks: TTM free cash flow stands at $2.161 billion, with Q1 2026 FCF of $609 million, enabling $821 million in stock repurchases and $35 million in dividends during the quarter. This capital return strategy reduces share count and boosts EPS growth.
- Analyst consensus sees 15.5% upside: With 26 analysts covering the stock, the average target price of $353.00 implies 15.5% upside from the current $305.73, and the consensus recommendation is 'buy' with a mean of 1.96. The high target of $394.00 suggests 28.9% upside if growth accelerates.
Bearish
- Premium valuation leaves little room for error: The trailing PE of 46.48x and forward PE of 29.24x are elevated for a hospitality company, while EV/EBITDA of 27.87x and PS of 5.63x are rich multiples. Any slowdown in travel demand or margin compression could trigger significant multiple compression.
- Recent momentum sharply negative: The stock has declined 8.66% over the past month and 12.36% over three months, underperforming SPY by 7.70% and 14.36% respectively. This negative momentum suggests distribution and potential trend reversal.
- Institutional rotation out of Hilton: Bill Ackman's fund exited its Hilton stake in favor of AI-driven mega-cap names, contributing to the stock's underperformance. This rotation reflects a broader shift in investor preference away from traditional hospitality stocks.
- Negative equity and tight liquidity: Debt-to-equity is -2.43 due to aggressive buybacks, and the current ratio of 0.66 indicates tight short-term liquidity. While these metrics are distorted by capital return strategy, they highlight financial leverage and limited buffer.
HLT Technical Analysis
Hilton is in a range-bound consolidation phase within a broader recovery, with the current price of $305.73 sitting approximately 52.4% of the way through its 52-week range of $253.54 to $358.00, and a 1-year price change of +14.81% that slightly trails the S&P 500's +15.01% over the same period. This mid-range positioning signals neither momentum-driven overextension nor deep-value territory, but rather a market that is undecided on direction after the stock peaked near $358 and has since given back meaningful ground. The stock's max drawdown of -13.61% from its high reflects a controlled but persistent pullback rather than a crash, suggesting distribution rather than capitulation. Recent momentum has deteriorated sharply, with a 1-month decline of -8.66% and a 3-month decline of -12.36%, both diverging negatively from the positive 1-year trend and producing relative strength readings of -7.70% and -14.36% versus SPY over those respective windows. This divergence between the longer-term uptrend and the recent sharp pullback signals either a healthy mean-reversion reset or the early stages of a trend reversal, and the fact that the 6-month change remains positive at +4.49% while the 3-month is deeply negative indicates the selling pressure is concentrated in the most recent quarter. The stock's beta of 1.056 means it moves roughly in line with the market, so the underperformance is company-specific rather than a function of elevated volatility, and the short ratio of 2.61 suggests no aggressive bearish positioning. Key technical support sits at the 52-week low of $253.54, roughly 17% below the current price, while resistance is anchored at the 52-week high of $358.00, about 17% above; a breakout above $358 would confirm trend resumption and likely trigger momentum buying, while a breakdown below $253.54 would signal a deeper corrective phase and potentially invite short sellers given the relatively low short base.
Beta
1.06
1.06x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-13.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$254-$358
Price range past year
Annual Return
+14.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HLT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -8.7% | -0.5% |
| 3m | -12.4% | +2.3% |
| 6m | +4.5% | +16.6% |
| 1y | +14.8% | +14.8% |
| ytd | +4.4% | +11.7% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
HLT Fundamental Analysis
Hilton's revenue trajectory remains solidly positive, with Q1 2026 revenue of $2.937 billion representing 8.98% year-over-year growth from $2.695 billion in Q1 2025, and the multi-quarter trend shows consistent sequential strength from $2.783 billion in Q4 2024 to $3.137 billion in Q2 2025 and $3.087 billion in Q4 2025. The revenue mix is dominated by reimbursement revenue of $1.755 billion, which is largely pass-through, while the high-margin management and franchise segment contributed $696 million, with base management fees of $95 million and incentive management fees of $76 million; the fee-based segments are the true profit engine and their growth is what drives the investment case. The 8.98% YoY growth rate is healthy for a mature hospitality company and suggests unit growth and RevPAR gains are combining favorably, though the market's focus on whether travel demand broadening beyond high-income consumers is sustainable introduces uncertainty about the durability of this growth rate. Profitability is robust, with Q1 2026 net income of $385 million on a 13.11% net margin, gross margin of 40.25%, and operating margin of 23.08%, and the company has demonstrated margin expansion from Q1 2025's 11.13% net margin to the current 13.11%, driven by operating leverage on higher revenue and disciplined cost management. EBITDA has grown from $596 million in Q1 2025 to $730 million in Q1 2026, a 22.5% increase, with EBITDA margin expanding from 22.12% to 24.86%, reflecting the scalability of the asset-light model. The balance sheet presents a mixed picture: debt-to-equity is reported at -2.43 due to negative shareholders' equity from aggressive buybacks, the current ratio of 0.66 indicates tight short-term liquidity, and ROE is negative at -27.04% for the same reason, but these metrics are distorted by the company's capital return strategy rather than operational weakness. Free cash flow TTM stands at $2.161 billion, and Q1 2026 free cash flow was $609 million against operating cash flow of $618 million, demonstrating strong cash generation, while the company returned $821 million via stock repurchases and $35 million in dividends in the quarter, funded comfortably from operations. The interest coverage ratio of 4.19x and cash flow to debt ratio of 0.047 suggest adequate but not fortress-like debt servicing capacity, and the reliance on continued FCF generation to fund buybacks means any operational slowdown would pressure the capital return story.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.9B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+9.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
40.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is HLT Overvalued?
Because Hilton is profitable with positive net income of $385 million in Q1 2026, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary valuation metric, and the stock trades at a trailing PE of 46.48x versus a forward PE of 29.24x, a substantial gap that implies the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The forward PE of 29.24x is more reasonable but still represents a premium multiple, and the gap between trailing and forward suggests analysts anticipate EPS expanding from the current run-rate toward the consensus estimate of $16.67, which would represent a dramatic increase from the trailing EPS of $0.021 implied by the key metrics data. The PS ratio of 5.63x and EV/EBITDA of 27.87x provide additional context, with the EV/EBITDA multiple being particularly elevated for a hospitality company, reflecting the market's willingness to pay up for Hilton's asset-light, fee-based business model and brand strength. Compared to the broader Travel Lodging industry, Hilton's trailing PE of 46.48x and forward PE of 29.24x represent a premium, though the industry average is not explicitly provided in the valuation data; however, the PS ratio of 5.63x and EV/Sales of 15.90x are clearly rich multiples that require sustained high-single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion to justify. The premium is defensible given Hilton's industry-leading brand portfolio, 1.38 million rooms, and capital-light model that generates high-margin fee income, but it leaves little room for execution missteps. Historically, Hilton's PE ratio has ranged from a low of 21.11x in Q2 2022 to a high of 79.86x in Q4 2023, with the current 46.48x sitting in the upper-middle portion of that band, while the PS ratio of 5.63x compares to a historical range of roughly 13.83x to 25.32x on a quarterly basis, though the current PS appears lower due to revenue growth outpacing the market cap change. The current valuation is not at historical extremes but is elevated relative to the company's own recent history, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for continued travel demand and unit growth, and any disappointment on that front could trigger multiple compression.
PE
46.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 21x~80x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
27.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks for Hilton are primarily tied to its leveraged balance sheet and dependence on continued free cash flow generation. The company carries negative shareholders' equity with a debt-to-equity ratio of -2.43, a current ratio of 0.66, and an interest coverage ratio of 4.19x, indicating adequate but not fortress-like debt servicing capacity. While free cash flow TTM of $2.161 billion comfortably funds $821 million in quarterly buybacks and $35 million in dividends, any operational slowdown would pressure this capital return story. Additionally, revenue concentration in the Americas and reliance on the high-margin management and franchise segment ($696 million in Q1 2026) expose the company to regional economic downturns and competitive pressures.
Market and competitive risks include valuation compression, as the stock trades at a trailing PE of 46.48x and EV/EBITDA of 27.87x, well above historical averages and likely a premium to peers. With a beta of 1.056, Hilton moves roughly in line with the market, but recent relative strength readings of -7.70% (1-month) and -14.36% (3-month) versus SPY indicate company-specific underperformance. The institutional rotation out of Hilton, exemplified by Bill Ackman's fund exiting its stake in favor of AI-driven mega-caps, highlights shifting investor preferences and potential for further outflows. Regulatory headwinds, such as changes in travel policies or labor regulations, could also impact operations.
In a worst-case scenario, a sustained slowdown in travel demand, particularly if the broadening beyond high-income consumers reverses, could lead to revenue deceleration and margin compression. This would likely trigger multiple compression, pushing the stock toward its 52-week low of $253.54, representing a 17% decline from the current price of $305.73. The analyst low target of $270.00 implies 11.7% downside, but a more severe scenario could see the stock test the 52-week low, especially if earnings miss and analysts downgrade. From the current price, investors could lose approximately 17% to the 52-week low, and if the low is breached, the next support might not be until much lower levels.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Financial risk from negative equity (debt-to-equity of -2.43) and tight liquidity (current ratio of 0.66), though these are managed through strong free cash flow. 2) Market risk from premium valuation multiples, which could compress if growth slows. 3) Competitive risk from alternative accommodations and other hotel chains, potentially impacting RevPAR. 4) Macro risk from a consumer spending slowdown, given the discretionary nature of travel. The most severe risk is a demand downturn that leads to revenue deceleration and multiple compression, potentially causing a 17% decline to the 52-week low.
The 12-month forecast is neutral with a slight bullish bias. The base case (55% probability) targets $330-$355, assuming steady growth and stable margins. The bull case (25% probability) targets $358-$394, driven by accelerating demand and multiple expansion. The bear case (20% probability) targets $253-$270, if travel demand weakens and margins compress. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the key assumption that revenue grows 7-9% YoY and EBITDA margin remains around 24-25%. The analyst average target of $353 aligns with the base case.
HLT appears fairly valued to slightly overvalued relative to its history and peers. The trailing PE of 46.48x is above the historical average, while the forward PE of 29.24x is more reasonable but still a premium. The EV/EBITDA of 27.87x and PS of 5.63x are rich, reflecting the market's willingness to pay up for the asset-light model. Compared to the broader Travel Lodging industry, these multiples are likely at a premium. The valuation implies the market expects continued high-single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion, leaving little room for disappointment.
From a risk/reward perspective, HLT is a moderate buy for long-term investors, but current levels offer limited margin of safety. The stock trades at $305.73, with a consensus buy rating and an average target of $353.00, implying 15.5% upside. However, the premium valuation (forward PE of 29.24x) and recent negative momentum (-8.66% in 1 month) suggest near-term pressure. The biggest downside risk is a slowdown in travel demand, which could push the stock to the 52-week low of $253.54, representing 17% downside. For investors with a long-term horizon and tolerance for volatility, accumulating on dips toward $270-$280 could be prudent.
HLT is more suitable for long-term investment (minimum 2-3 years) given its stable business model, consistent free cash flow, and share buyback program. The stock has a beta of 1.056, indicating market-like volatility, and pays a modest dividend yield of 0.21%. Short-term trading is less attractive due to recent negative momentum and lack of clear catalysts. Long-term investors can benefit from the company's unit growth, margin expansion, and capital returns. A suggested holding period is at least 3 years to ride out cyclical downturns and benefit from compounding.
