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Humana

HUM

$369.49

-2.83%

Humana Inc. is one of the largest private health insurers in the United States, operating primarily within the Medical - Healthcare Plans industry. The company has carved out a distinct niche by specializing in government-sponsored health programs, with nearly all its medical membership derived from Medicare, Medicaid, and the military's Tricare program. The current investor narrative is dominated by the company's recovery from a significant earnings shock in late January 2026, which triggered a sharp selloff, and its subsequent rebound driven by a favorable regulatory environment, specifically a larger-than-expected 2027 Medicare Advantage payment increase from CMS. This has shifted the debate towards the sustainability of its turnaround, margin recovery prospects, and its valuation relative to peers in the managed care sector.…

Should I buy HUM
Bobby Quantitative Model
Jun 16, 2026

HUM

Humana

$369.49

-2.83%
Jun 16, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Humana Inc. is one of the largest private health insurers in the United States, operating primarily within the Medical - Healthcare Plans industry. The company has carved out a distinct niche by specializing in government-sponsored health programs, with nearly all its medical membership derived from Medicare, Medicaid, and the military's Tricare program. The current investor narrative is dominated by the company's recovery from a significant earnings shock in late January 2026, which triggered a sharp selloff, and its subsequent rebound driven by a favorable regulatory environment, specifically a larger-than-expected 2027 Medicare Advantage payment increase from CMS. This has shifted the debate towards the sustainability of its turnaround, margin recovery prospects, and its valuation relative to peers in the managed care sector.
Should I buy HUM

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HUM 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $369.49
Average Target $369.49
High Target $424.9135
Low Target $314.0665

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Humana's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $480.34 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$480.34

7 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

7

covering this stock

Price Range

$296 - $480

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (29%)
Hold
3 (43%)
Sell
2 (29%)

Analyst coverage is limited, with only 7 analysts providing estimates, indicating this may be a less-followed name among large institutions or that coverage has diminished following its recent turmoil. The consensus sentiment, inferred from recent institutional ratings, appears neutral to cautious; a series of actions in February 2026 included firms like Barclays and Wells Fargo maintaining 'Equal Weight', Goldman Sachs maintaining 'Sell', and Jefferies and Guggenheim maintaining 'Buy', suggesting a divided view with a tilt towards hold/sell ratings amidst the uncertainty. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the analyst data, but the wide dispersion in analyst actions—from Sell to Buy—signals high uncertainty and low conviction; a tight target spread would indicate stronger consensus, but the current environment suggests analysts are grappling with the sustainability of the recent rebound and the long-term impact of Medicare rate changes on Humana's core profitability.

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HUM Technical Analysis

The stock is in a powerful recovery and sustained uptrend, having surged 129.23% over the past three months and 61.40% over the past year. As of the latest close at $379.22, the price is trading at approximately 99.9% of its 52-week high of $379.49, indicating it is at the absolute peak of its recent range, which reflects extreme bullish momentum but also suggests potential overextension and vulnerability to profit-taking. Recent momentum is exceptionally strong, with the stock up 24.40% over the past month, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's -0.08% return, and this acceleration from the longer-term trend signals a powerful recovery phase following the deep correction that bottomed near the 52-week low of $163.11 in March 2026. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate support at the 52-week low area of $163.11 and resistance at the current 52-week high of $379.49; a sustained breakout above this resistance would confirm the strength of the new uptrend, while a failure could lead to a consolidation. The stock's beta of 0.771 indicates it is 23% less volatile than the broader market, which is notable given its recent explosive price moves, suggesting the recent surge may be driven by fundamental catalysts rather than pure market beta.

Beta

0.77

0.77x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-47.5%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$163-$381

Price range past year

Annual Return

+57.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodHUM ReturnS&P 500
1m+21.1%+1.5%
3m+116.8%+13.4%
6m+41.7%+10.9%
1y+57.0%+24.5%
ytd+39.7%+10.0%

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HUM Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is positive but masked by significant quarterly volatility; the most recent Q4 2025 revenue was $32.52 billion, representing an 11.3% year-over-year growth, yet this follows a pattern of strong Q1 results ($32.11B, 8.3% YoY) and a sharp, loss-making Q4, indicating the business is highly seasonal and impacted by annual medical cost adjustments. Profitability is severely challenged, with the company reporting a net loss of -$796 million and a gross margin of 11.67% in Q4 2025, a stark compression from the 17.37% gross margin in Q1 2025; this quarterly swing from a net income of $1.24 billion in Q1 to a substantial loss in Q4 highlights the operational and cost pressures within its government insurance programs, particularly Medicare Advantage. The balance sheet and cash flow position show strain from recent losses, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.73 and a current ratio of 0.72 indicating adequate but not robust liquidity; trailing twelve-month free cash flow is positive at $375 million, but the most recent quarter saw operating cash flow turn deeply negative at -$1.65 billion, underscoring the cash flow volatility that accompanies its earnings swings and raising questions about the sustainability of its dividend, which has a payout ratio of 36.20%.

Quarterly Revenue

$32.5B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.11%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.11%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$375000000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

CenterWell Segment
Insurance Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is HUM Overvalued?

Given the company's negative net income in the most recent quarter, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. Humana trades at a trailing PS ratio of 0.24 and an EV/Sales of 0.27, which are extremely low multiples that reflect the market's severe discount due to recent profitability issues. Compared to industry averages, these sales multiples represent a significant discount, though specific industry average data is not provided in the valuation dataset; typically, managed care peers trade at higher sales multiples, suggesting Humana's discount is pricing in deeper margin concerns and earnings uncertainty. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated wildly, from a high above 2.8 in 2021 to the current 0.24; trading near the absolute bottom of its multi-year historical band signals the market is pricing in a worst-case scenario for margins and growth, presenting a potential value opportunity if the company can demonstrate a credible path to margin stabilization and a return to consistent profitability.

PE

26.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -1073x~40x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

13.6x

Enterprise Value Multiple

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Neutral
M&A Frenzy: HUM Expands, WBD Deal Challenged, MBGYY Sells Stake

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