Itron
ITRI
$107.02
+26.23%
Itron Inc is a technology company specializing in solutions that measure, manage, and analyze energy and water use, operating within the Hardware, Equipment & Parts industry. The company is a key player in the smart infrastructure and Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) space, offering a comprehensive suite of products and services across segments like Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, and Outcomes. The current investor narrative is dominated by a tug-of-war between strong recent earnings performance and concerns over future growth, as evidenced by a significant stock sell-off following Q1 2026 results where a beat was overshadowed by weak forward guidance, creating uncertainty about the near-term trajectory.…
ITRI
Itron
$107.02
Related headlines
ITRI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Itron's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $126.70 and implied upside of +18.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$126.70
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+18.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$112 - $145
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Itron appears limited, with the provided data indicating only one analyst providing estimates for revenue, yielding an average estimate of $3.05 billion. However, the institutional ratings data shows activity from multiple firms, including Oppenheimer, Baird, and Guggenheim. The consensus sentiment from recent actions is mixed but leans cautious; while Oppenheimer maintains an Outperform and Baird upgraded to Outperform in February 2026, Guggenheim downgraded from Buy to Neutral around the same time, and Argus Research moved from Buy to Hold in late 2025, reflecting the uncertainty following earnings reports. A specific consensus price target, target range, and implied upside/downside are not provided in the dataset. The absence of a clear, quantified average target and range from a broader analyst pool suggests coverage may be sparse or targets are in flux. The wide dispersion in recent rating actions—from upgrades to downgrades—signals high uncertainty and lack of conviction among analysts, which aligns with the stock's high volatility and the challenging near-term outlook presented by management's guidance. This environment typically leads to less efficient price discovery and higher risk for investors.
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Bulls vs Bears: ITRI Investment Factors
The evidence currently favors the bearish case, primarily due to the severe price deterioration, revenue decline, and negative market sentiment reflected in weak guidance. The most compelling bullish arguments—strong profitability, cash flow, and compressed valuation—are defensive in nature and have so far failed to arrest the downtrend. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company's impressive margin expansion and cash generation can offset the clear top-line weakness and restore investor confidence in its growth story. If revenue stabilizes, the stock's deep value characteristics could trigger a sharp re-rating; if the decline persists, even strong margins may not prevent further multiple compression.
Bullish
- Strong Profitability & Margin Expansion: Q4 2025 net income of $101.6 million reflects a significant year-over-year improvement, with net margin expanding to 17.78% from 9.48% in Q4 2024. Gross margin also improved to 39.73% from 34.90%, demonstrating effective cost control and a favorable sales mix shift.
- Robust Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generated $381 million in TTM free cash flow and $111.5 million in the latest quarter, providing significant financial flexibility. This strong cash flow supports the $100 million stock repurchase in Q4 and funds future growth initiatives without reliance on external financing.
- Valuation Near Historical Lows: ITRI trades at a forward P/E of 12.32x, near the lower end of its observable historical range (high of 33.84x in Q2 2023). The P/S ratio of 1.78x is a dramatic compression from 7.35x just two quarters ago, suggesting substantial pessimism is priced in, potentially creating a value opportunity.
- Healthy Balance Sheet & Capital Returns: A current ratio of 1.80 and a manageable debt-to-equity of 0.75 indicate a solid financial position. The company's strong cash flow has enabled shareholder-friendly actions like share buybacks, signaling management's confidence and commitment to returning capital.
Bearish
- Revenue Decline & Weak Guidance: Q4 2025 revenue of $571.7 million declined -6.7% YoY, and a sequential quarterly decline from Q1 to Q4 2025 indicates persistent top-line pressure. Recent news confirms weak forward guidance overshadowed a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat, creating significant near-term uncertainty.
- Severe Technical Downtrend & Underperformance: The stock is down -35.71% over the past year and -16.03% over six months, underperforming the S&P 500 by -61.36%. It currently trades just 3.9% above its 52-week low of $77.77, reflecting a clear and persistent downtrend with no established support.
- High Volatility & Elevated Short Interest: A beta of 1.33 indicates the stock is 33% more volatile than the market, increasing risk. A short ratio of 7.8 suggests a crowded bearish trade, which can exacerbate selling pressure and limit upside momentum in the absence of a major positive catalyst.
- Lack of Clear Analyst Conviction: Analyst actions are mixed (Guggenheim downgraded to Neutral, Argus moved to Hold), and a consensus price target is unavailable, indicating high uncertainty and a lack of conviction on the stock's direction. This makes price discovery difficult and increases investor risk.
ITRI Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend for Itron is a pronounced downtrend, characterized by a 1-year price change of -35.71% and a 6-month decline of -16.03%. The stock is currently trading near the bottom of its 52-week range, with the latest close of $80.81 sitting just 3.9% above the 52-week low of $77.77, indicating a position of significant weakness and potential oversold conditions. Recent momentum shows a slight divergence, with a 1-month gain of 3.58% suggesting a possible short-term stabilization or dead-cat bounce, yet this is overwhelmed by the persistent negative 3-month trend of -11.47% and a stark underperformance relative to the S&P 500, which gained 13.94% over the same period. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $77.77 and formidable resistance at the 52-week high of $142.00. A breakdown below $77.77 would signal a continuation of the bearish trend and likely trigger further selling, while a sustained move above this level is needed to suggest a base is forming. The stock exhibits high volatility with a beta of 1.33, meaning it is approximately 33% more volatile than the broader market, which is critical for risk management given the stock's -43.64% maximum drawdown and the heightened uncertainty reflected in its price action. The stock's relative strength metrics paint a bleak picture, with a 1-year relative strength of -61.36 and a 3-month reading of -25.41, confirming severe and persistent underperformance. The 1-month relative strength of 3.43 offers a faint glimmer of hope for a near-term reversal but must be viewed in the context of the overwhelming longer-term bearish momentum. The high short interest, indicated by a short ratio of 7.8, suggests a crowded bearish trade that could fuel a sharp rally on any positive catalyst, but currently acts as an overhang.
Beta
1.31
1.31x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-43.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$78-$142
Price range past year
Annual Return
-21.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ITRI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +27.6% | +1.6% |
| 3m | +29.4% | +4.1% |
| 6m | +6.8% | +6.8% |
| 1y | -21.5% | +16.3% |
| ytd | +13.3% | +8.6% |
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ITRI Fundamental Analysis
Itron's revenue trajectory shows signs of deceleration and contraction, with Q4 2025 revenue of $571.66 million representing a -6.7% year-over-year decline. Analyzing the sequential quarterly trend from Q1 2025 ($607.15M) to Q4 2025 ($571.66M) reveals a steady quarterly decline throughout the year, indicating softening demand or execution challenges. The revenue segment data shows Product revenue of $474.33 million and Service revenue of $97.33 million for the latest period, but without growth rates, it's difficult to pinpoint the exact driver of the overall decline, though the trend suggests broad-based pressure. The company is profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $101.63 million and a net margin of 17.78%, which represents a significant improvement from the 9.48% net margin in Q4 2024. Gross margin for the latest quarter was 39.73%, up from 34.90% a year ago, indicating effective cost management or a favorable sales mix. However, the operating margin of 14.83%, while solid, shows that profitability, though improving, is being driven more by gross margin expansion than operating leverage, as operating expenses remain a substantial portion of revenue. Itron's balance sheet and cash flow position is mixed; the company maintains a healthy current ratio of 1.80 and a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.75. Crucially, it generated robust free cash flow of $381.03 million on a trailing twelve-month basis and $111.50 million in the latest quarter, providing ample internal funding for growth and shareholder returns, as evidenced by a $100 million stock repurchase in Q4. The return on equity of 17.54% is respectable, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital, but the return on assets of 5.10% is more modest, suggesting the asset base could be utilized more effectively.
Quarterly Revenue
$571657000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-6.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
39.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$381026000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ITRI Overvalued?
Given Itron's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 14.03x and a forward PE of 12.32x. The forward multiple being lower than the trailing multiple suggests the market anticipates earnings growth, though the modest discount indicates expectations are tempered, likely reflecting concerns over the revenue decline and guidance highlighted in recent news. Peer comparison data is not available in the provided dataset, preventing a direct sector-based valuation assessment. Therefore, we cannot quantify a premium or discount relative to industry averages for the PE, PS (1.78x), or EV/EBITDA (10.84x) multiples. This lack of comparative context makes it challenging to determine if the current multiples are attractive or expensive based solely on sector norms, placing greater emphasis on the stock's own historical valuation range. Historically, Itron's valuation has compressed significantly. The current trailing PE of 14.03x is near the lower end of its observable range over the past several quarters, which has seen PEs as high as 21.71x in Q3 2025 and 33.84x in Q2 2023. Similarly, the PS ratio of 1.78x is dramatically lower than the 7.35x seen just two quarters prior in Q4 2025. Trading near historical lows suggests the market has priced in substantial pessimism, potentially offering a value opportunity if the company can stabilize its revenue and execute on its guidance, but it also reflects genuine fundamental deterioration from earlier, more optimistic periods.
PE
14.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 10x~34x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Itron faces significant financial risk from its deteriorating revenue trajectory, with Q4 2025 sales down -6.7% YoY and a sequential quarterly decline throughout FY2025. This top-line pressure raises concerns about its ability to maintain its recent margin expansion, which drove the net margin to 17.78%. While free cash flow of $381M TTM is robust, a continued revenue decline could pressure cash generation and limit capital return flexibility. The company's valuation is heavily dependent on reversing this trend; failure to do so would undermine the core investment thesis of a profitable company trading at a discount.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock carries substantial market risk, trading with a beta of 1.33, meaning it is 33% more volatile than the broader market. This volatility is exacerbated by its severe underperformance (-61.36% relative strength vs. S&P 500 over 1 year) and high short interest (short ratio 7.8), which can lead to exaggerated moves on any news. The primary competitive and execution risk is the failure to meet its own guidance, as evidenced by the Q1 2026 report where a beat was overshadowed by weak forward outlook, triggering a sell-off. The lack of a clear consensus price target from analysts further complicates the risk profile, indicating a lack of conviction in its near-term path.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a continuation of the revenue decline coupled with margin compression, leading to multiple quarters of earnings misses. This could trigger further analyst downgrades and a loss of institutional support, driving the stock to test and break its 52-week low of $77.77. Given the stock's high volatility and -43.64% maximum drawdown, a realistic downside from the current price of $80.81 could be -15% to -20%, pushing the stock into the low $70s. This scenario would be catalyzed by the next earnings report confirming the weak guidance and showing no signs of a demand recovery in its core smart infrastructure markets.
