Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
LTH
$41.99
+3.02%
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. operates an upscale network of large-format athletic country clubs across the United States and Canada, combining fitness, spa, family recreation, and resort-style amenities with membership-based recurring revenue and ancillary in-center services such as personal training, studios, and food and beverage. The company occupies a differentiated premium niche in the consumer cyclical leisure industry, positioning itself less as a commodity gym operator and more as a lifestyle and wellness destination brand with high switching costs and a dense, destination-club footprint in affluent metropolitan areas. The current investor narrative centers on a multi-year margin expansion story: membership dues (roughly $535 million of the most recent quarterly segment mix) provide a high-visibility recurring base, while in-center spending and pricing power have driven operating margins from the low double digits toward the high teens. Debate now hinges on whether the company can sustain double-digit revenue growth and EBITDA leverage as it laps aggressive new-club openings, while carrying a leveraged balance sheet and a capital-intensive buildout that has kept trailing free cash flow slightly negative.…
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
$41.99
People also watch
LTH 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $56.07 and implied upside of +33.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$56.07
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+33.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$50 - $64
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust with 14 analysts, and sentiment is emphatically bullish: the consensus recommendation is "strong_buy" with a recommendation mean of 1.14 (where 1.0 is a strong buy), and the average target price of $56.07 implies roughly +38.4% upside from the current $40.52. The consensus leans decisively bullish, with the average target sitting well above even the 52-week high of $47.235, indicating that sell-side models expect the stock to break out to new highs over the next twelve months. Estimated EPS averages $3.18 (range $3.11-$3.26) on average revenue of $4.559 billion, consistent with continued double-digit top-line growth and margin leverage.
The target range of $50.00 to $64.00 is wide in absolute terms (a $14 spread, or roughly 25% of the midpoint), signaling meaningful dispersion in assumptions about the pace of margin expansion and new-club returns. The high target of $64.00 implies multiple expansion toward the mid-20s forward PE alongside sustained high-teens EBITDA margins and successful new-unit productivity, while the low target of $50.00 still assumes solid execution but with more conservative margin and free-cash-flow conversion. Institutional ratings show a constructive drift: Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight in October 2025 and reiterated in February 2026, Guggenheim has maintained Buy, and Goldman Sachs sits at Neutral, a pattern of net positive revisions that supports the strong consensus but leaves room for further upgrades if free cash flow turns positive.
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Bulls vs Bears: LTH Investment Factors
The bull case currently holds the stronger evidence: revenue is growing 12.33% YoY with every quarter above prior-year levels, operating margin has expanded roughly 430bps YoY to 17.38%, and 14 analysts rate the stock a strong buy with a $56.07 target implying +38.4% upside. The bear case rests less on deteriorating fundamentals than on cash conversion and balance-sheet constraints — negative trailing FCF of -$20.96M, 2.16x debt-to-equity, and a 0.63 current ratio — plus a stock that has already run 62.60% in a year and is now consolidating. The single most important tension is whether margin expansion converts into positive free cash flow as the new-club buildout laps; if FCF turns positive, the 15.59x EV/EBITDA re-rates higher, but if capex stays elevated and FCF remains negative, the premium multiple and leveraged balance sheet become the binding constraint.
Bullish
- Margin expansion is dramatic and durable: Operating margin expanded to 17.38% in Q4 2025 from 13.11% a year earlier, and EBITDA margin jumped to 35.74% from 23.58%. Gross margin has held in a tight 46.9%-47.5% band across all four 2025 quarters, showing the improvement comes from pricing and operating leverage on a fixed club cost base rather than one-time items.
- Double-digit revenue growth every quarter: Q4 2025 revenue of $745.10M grew 12.33% YoY, and every 2025 quarter exceeded its prior-year counterpart ($706.04M vs $596.72M; $761.47M vs $667.76M; $782.65M vs $693.23M). Membership dues of $535.10M provide a high-visibility recurring base, with $191.19M of in-center spend as the incremental margin lever.
- Analyst consensus strongly bullish: 14 analysts carry a consensus 'strong_buy' with a recommendation mean of 1.14, and the $56.07 average target implies +38.4% upside from $40.52. The average target sits above even the 52-week high of $47.235, signaling sell-side models expect a breakout to new highs.
- Earnings inflection compressing valuation: Q4 2025 net income of $123.00M (16.5% margin) versus $37.16M (5.6%) a year earlier drove the trailing PE down from 30.82x in Q4 2024 to 15.54x today. The forward PE of 19.85x on $3.18 EPS and PEG of 0.127 suggest the market is paying little for expected growth.
Bearish
- Negative free cash flow despite profits: Trailing free cash flow is -$20.96M and Q4 2025 FCF was -$64.64M after $304.50M of capex, even as operating cash flow was robust at $239.86M. The capital-intensive buildout means reported earnings are not yet converting into shareholder cash.
- Leveraged balance sheet, thin liquidity: Debt-to-equity is 2.16x and the current ratio is only 0.63, with interest coverage of 7.65x adequate but not fortress-like. With $232.17M of cash against a heavy development pipeline, growth is funded by operating cash flow plus incremental debt, keeping refinancing risk in focus.
- Short-term momentum has stalled: The stock is down 0.52% over one month and 3.87% over three months against a rising SPY, producing relative strength of -1.74 and -6.56. Failure to reclaim the $47.235 high leaves it vulnerable to a deeper mean-reversion toward the $33-$35 June shelf.
- Rich EV/EBITDA for a leveraged operator: EV/EBITDA of 15.59x is a premium to typical leisure/fitness operators and is the most telling multiple for a capital-intensive, debt-funded business. The 1.93x price-to-sales and 4.12x EV/sales are moderate but leave little room for execution slippage.
LTH Technical Analysis
LTH is in a sustained, powerful uptrend: the stock is up 62.60% over the trailing year and 51.82% year-to-date, massively outperforming the S&P 500's 15.53% and 11.93% respective gains, with relative strength of +47.07 over one year. At $40.52, the shares sit at roughly 70.7% of the 52-week range bounded by a $24.14 low and a $47.235 high, having pulled back from the July/August peak near $45.70 but still holding well above the spring base in the mid-$20s. This positioning signals a stock in a healthy uptrend digesting gains rather than a broken chart, though the failure to reclaim the highs leaves it vulnerable to further consolidation.
Short-term momentum has clearly decelerated and diverges from the longer-term trend: the stock is down 0.52% over the past month and 3.87% over three months, versus a 41.88% gain over six months, producing negative relative strength of -1.74 (1-month) and -6.56 (3-month) against a rising SPY. The pattern of a strong 6-month and 1-year advance paired with a flat-to-negative 3-month stretch is classic mid-trend consolidation, likely mean reversion after the sharp May-June re-rating (from ~$26 in early May to ~$41 by late June) rather than a trend reversal, especially since the pullback has been orderly and contained within a $38-$46 band since August. Volume of roughly 2.56 million shares and a short ratio of 4.31 days suggest moderate speculative positioning but no acute squeeze dynamic.
Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the September swing low near $38.19 and, more meaningfully, the 52-week low of $24.14, while resistance is the 52-week high of $47.235 and the $45.70 July peak. A breakout above $47.24 would confirm resumption of the primary uptrend and likely open a new leg higher, whereas a decisive break below $38 would signal a deeper mean-reversion toward the $33-$35 June consolidation shelf. With a beta of 1.488, LTH is roughly 49% more volatile than the market, and a max drawdown of -16.49% over the period underscores that position sizing should account for amplified swings relative to the index.
Beta
1.49
1.49x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-16.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$24-$47
Price range past year
Annual Return
+62.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | LTH Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +10.0% | -1.2% |
| 3m | -0.8% | +3.4% |
| 6m | +54.0% | +7.0% |
| 1y | +62.1% | +14.4% |
| ytd | +57.3% | +12.0% |
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LTH Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing at a solid double-digit clip: the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) posted $745.10 million in revenue, up 12.33% year-over-year from $663.28 million, and the trailing four quarters totaled roughly $2.995 billion ($706.04M + $761.47M + $782.65M + $745.10M). The sequential trend shows Q1 $706.04M, Q2 $761.47M, Q3 $782.65M, and Q4 $745.10M, a seasonal pattern where Q3 is the peak quarter and Q4 steps down, but every quarter is comfortably above its prior-year counterpart ($596.72M, $667.76M, $693.23M, $663.28M), confirming durable growth rather than a one-off. Membership dues of $535.10 million dominate the segment mix, with in-center spending at $191.19 million and product/service other at $18.81 million, meaning the recurring membership base is the engine and ancillary spend is the incremental margin lever.
Profitability has inflected sharply upward: Q4 2025 net income was $123.00 million (16.5% net margin) versus just $37.16 million (5.6% margin) in Q4 2024, and full-year 2025 net income across the four reported quarters sums to roughly $373.9 million. Gross margin has been stable in the 46.9%-47.5% range across 2025 quarters (47.06% in Q3, 46.95% in Q2, 47.46% in Q1), while operating margin expanded to 17.38% in Q4 from 13.11% a year earlier, and EBITDA margin reached 35.74% in Q4 versus 23.58% in the prior-year period. The reported 47.63% gross margin and 16.07% operating margin in the valuation dataset are consistent with this trajectory, and the improvement is being driven by pricing, membership mix, and operating leverage on a largely fixed club cost base rather than one-time items.
The balance sheet is the key risk offsetting the operating story: debt-to-equity stands at 2.16x, the current ratio is a thin 0.63, and interest coverage of 7.65x is adequate but not fortress-like. Free cash flow is the pressure point, with trailing free cash flow of -$20.96 million and Q4 2025 FCF of -$64.64 million after $304.50 million of capital expenditure, though operating cash flow remains robust at $239.86 million in Q4 and $251.11 million in Q3. ROE of 11.95% and ROA of 4.17% are improving but modest given the asset-heavy model, and with cash of $232.17 million against a heavy development pipeline, the company is funding growth largely from operating cash flow plus incremental debt rather than internal surplus, which keeps execution and refinancing risk in focus.
Quarterly Revenue
$745096000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+12.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-20958000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is LTH Overvalued?
Because LTH is solidly profitable (Q4 2025 net income of $123.00 million; trailing EPS of $0.0645 on a reported basis but forward EPS estimates of $3.18), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at 15.54x trailing earnings and 19.85x forward earnings, an unusual inversion where the forward multiple exceeds the trailing multiple, reflecting the fact that the trailing figure is distorted by a low reported EPS base while the forward estimate of $3.18 implies substantial normalized earnings power; on that forward number the stock is priced at a reasonable 19.85x. The PEG ratio of 0.127 is exceptionally low, suggesting the market is paying very little for expected growth, though this metric should be treated cautiously given the noisy trailing earnings base.
Against the broader market and its own sector, LTH screens cheap on earnings but rich on cash flow: the 15.54x trailing PE and 19.85x forward PE compare favorably to the S&P 500's high-teens-to-low-20s multiple, while the 1.93x price-to-sales, 1.85x price-to-book, and 4.12x EV/sales are moderate for a premium consumer brand. The 15.59x EV/EBITDA is the more telling figure for a capital-intensive, leveraged business and sits at a premium to typical leisure/fitness operators, reflecting the market's willingness to pay for the margin-expansion runway. The 6.66x price-to-cash-flow and 0.127 PEG suggest the valuation is not stretched relative to cash generation and growth, but the negative trailing FCF (-$20.96 million) means the cash-flow-based multiples flatter near-term reality.
Historically, LTH's valuation has compressed dramatically as earnings have inflected: the PE ratio fell from 30.82x in Q4 2024 and 23.06x in Q2 2025 to 14.82x in Q3 2025 and 11.92x in Q4 2025 on the historical ratios series, while price-to-sales expanded from 5.03x in Q1 2024 to 7.87x in Q4 2025. The current 15.54x trailing PE sits near the low end of its post-IPO range, which is a function of earnings growth outrunning the share price rather than multiple compression alone, and the 1.85x price-to-book is mid-range versus the 1.30x-2.34x band seen over the past two years. The read-through is that the market is no longer paying a growth-at-any-price premium but is instead pricing LTH on improving profitability, leaving room for re-rating if margin expansion continues.
PE
15.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 12x~42x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
15.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on cash conversion and leverage. Trailing free cash flow is -$20.96M and Q4 2025 FCF was -$64.64M after $304.50M of capex, meaning the margin story is not yet translating into surplus cash. Debt-to-equity of 2.16x and a current ratio of 0.63 leave limited liquidity buffer, and with interest expense of $16.93M in Q4 alone, a rise in refinancing costs would directly compress the 16.5% net margin. Revenue is also concentrated in membership dues ($535.10M of the quarterly mix), so any membership attrition or pricing pushback would hit the recurring base that underpins the entire margin thesis.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation and volatility. At 15.59x EV/EBITDA, LTH trades at a premium to typical leisure/fitness operators, so any deceleration in margin expansion would likely trigger multiple compression rather than a graceful de-rating. Beta of 1.488 means the stock is roughly 49% more volatile than the market, and the recent divergence is already visible: -3.87% over three months versus SPY's +2.69%, a relative strength of -6.56. The premium positioning also exposes LTH to consumer cyclical rotation — in a discretionary spending slowdown, upscale fitness memberships are a cuttable expense, and the $14 spread between the $50 and $64 analyst targets shows the sell-side itself disagrees on how durable the margin runway is.
The worst-case scenario is a capex-driven cash crunch coinciding with membership softness: new-club openings keep consuming capital, FCF stays negative, refinancing costs rise, and the market re-rates the stock from a growth multiple to a leveraged-operator multiple. Quantitatively, a move to the 52-week low of $24.14 would represent roughly -40% from the current $40.52, while the analyst low target of $50.00 actually sits above the current price, meaning the sell-side bear case is not the real downside — the technical floor is. A break below the $38.19 September swing low would open the $33-$35 June consolidation shelf, or about -15% to -18%, and the observed max drawdown of -16.49% confirms that magnitude of decline is well within this stock's normal behavior.

