Intuitive Machines
LUNR
$11.81
-1.91%
Intuitive Machines is a space infrastructure and services company that designs, builds, integrates, and operates spacecraft and space-based network systems, offering 'infrastructure-as-a-service' across low Earth orbit, geostationary orbit, cislunar space, and deep space for commercial, civil, and national security customers. The company has established itself as arguably the most credible pure-play lunar lander operator among NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) contractors, with seven NASA missions on its manifest and a reported $1.8 billion backlog that gives it a distinct position versus higher-risk peers like Voyager and Firefly. The current investor narrative centers on whether Intuitive Machines can convert that record backlog into revenue and eventual profitability, with management guiding toward profitability around 2027 while the company burns substantial cash and has leaned on large equity raises to fund operations. Recent headlines have focused on the dilutive cash grab, execution risk following a revenue miss, and competitive dynamics around NASA's roughly $10 billion lunar cargo contract award, which has kept the stock in a volatile, sentiment-driven debate between speculative upside and near-term funding risk.…
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
$11.81
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy LUNR Today?
Rating: Hold (speculative, catalyst-dependent). The core thesis is that Intuitive Machines owns a genuinely scarce asset — a $1.8 billion backlog and seven NASA missions on its manifest as arguably the most credible pure-play CLPS lunar lander operator — but at $12.04 the stock already discounts a meaningful portion of that promise via a 9.22x PS multiple while the company burns -$190.51 million in TTM free cash flow and grew revenue just 3.10% YoY in Q2 2026. The sell-side is anchored on the long-term story (9 Buy / 0 Hold / 1 Sell, 'strong_buy' consensus, average target $27.11 implying ~+125% upside), but the wide $13.00-$39.00 target range and the lone BofA Underperform signal that conviction is low and outcomes are binary on mission execution and financing.
Supporting evidence is mixed but tilts toward 'not yet a buy at this price.' On the positive side, gross margin swung from -23.54% in Q2 2025 to 17.40% in Q2 2026 (and 38.99% in Q1 2026), demonstrating the cost structure can scale; the current ratio of 4.96 and $379.02 million cash balance provide real runway; and the PS multiple has de-rated from 43.24x in Q4 2025 to 9.22x today (EV/Sales 6.39x), meaning much of the disappointment is priced in. Against that, revenue of $206.17 million grew only 3.10% YoY, net margin is -22.53% (trailing -39.65%), shares outstanding rose 9.7% in a single quarter (147.88 million to 162.17 million) on $238.77 million of stock issuance, and negative shareholders' equity (D/E -0.50) means the balance sheet offers no cushion. The implied +125% upside to the average target is only credible if the 2027 profitability path holds.
Key risks that would invalidate even a Hold: (1) a further capital raise before cash flow inflects, given roughly four to five quarters of runway at the current burn; (2) a NASA task-order loss to Voyager/Astrobotic or MDA Space, which would undermine the backlog narrative; and (3) mission delay or failure pushing the 2027 profitability target out. This Hold would upgrade to Buy on evidence of backlog conversion — two consecutive quarters of revenue growth above 20% YoY with gross margin sustained above 30% — or on a pullback toward the $8-$9 zone that compresses PS toward 6x. It would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth stays near 3%, another dilutive raise occurs at a depressed price, or the stock breaks below the $7.78 52-week low. Valuation verdict: fairly valued to modestly rich relative to current fundamentals, but at a discount to its own history — a speculative position, not a value entry.
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LUNR 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward view is genuinely balanced: the sell-side is overwhelmingly bullish (recommendation mean 1.3, average target $27.11) and the $1.8 billion backlog with seven NASA missions is a real, multi-year asset that most space pure-plays lack, yet the current fundamentals — 3.10% revenue growth, -$190.51 million TTM free cash flow, and 9.7% quarterly dilution — do not yet support the 9.22x PS multiple without further proof. The de-rating from 43.24x PS in Q4 2025 to 9.22x today means much of the disappointment is priced in, which limits downside relative to the -81.14% max drawdown already endured, but the stock sits at only ~11% of its 52-week range with a beta of 1.907, so volatility will remain extreme. The most likely path (55% base case) is a wide $13-$18 range as the market waits for backlog conversion evidence, with a 25% bear case toward $7.78 and a 20% bull case toward $27-$39. I would upgrade to bullish on two consecutive quarters of 20%+ revenue growth with gross margin above 30%, and downgrade to bearish on another dilutive raise at a depressed price or a break below the $7.78 low.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Intuitive Machines's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $27.11 and implied upside of +129.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$27.11
10 analysts
Implied Upside
+129.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
10
covering this stock
Price Range
$13 - $39
Analyst target range
Nine analysts cover Intuitive Machines with a distribution of 9 Buy, 0 Hold, and 1 Sell, yielding a consensus recommendation of 'strong_buy' with a recommendation mean of 1.3 (where 1.0 is a strong buy). The average target price is $27.11, which implies roughly +125% upside from the current price of $12.04 — an extraordinarily bullish consensus that stands in stark contrast to the stock's 66% six-month decline and suggests analysts are anchoring on backlog-driven long-term value rather than near-term price action. The bullish tilt is notable given the recent revenue miss and dilutive equity raise, indicating the sell-side views the current dislocation as an opportunity rather than a value trap.
The target range is very wide, from a low of $13.00 to a high of $39.00, a spread of roughly 200% that signals high uncertainty and low conviction in precise valuation. The high target of $39.00 (about 3.2x the current price) likely assumes successful conversion of the $1.8 billion backlog, multiple NASA mission wins, and a path to the projected 2027 profitability with margin expansion; the low target of $13.00 (just 8% above the current price) prices in continued execution risk, mission delays, further dilution, and margin compression. Institutional ratings show recent stability with a notable upgrade — Stifel moved from Hold to Buy on 2026-08-14 — alongside reiterated Buy/Overweight ratings from B. Riley, KeyBanc, Canaccord, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Roth Capital, while BofA Securities maintains an Underperform rating as the lone bear. The persistence of the BofA bear case alongside a strong_buy consensus highlights the binary nature of this speculative space name, where outcomes hinge on mission execution and financing rather than incremental fundamental improvement.
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Bulls vs Bears: LUNR Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence: revenue growth of just 3.1% YoY, a -$190.51 million TTM cash burn, 9.7% quarterly dilution, and a -66.26% six-month price decline all describe a company whose fundamentals have not yet caught up to its narrative. The bull case rests almost entirely on the $1.8 billion backlog, seven NASA missions, and a sell-side consensus (9 Buy, average target $27.11) that is anchoring on 2027 profitability rather than current results. The single most important tension is backlog conversion: if LUNR can demonstrate accelerating revenue and sustained gross margins above 30% over the next two to three quarters, the 9.22x PS multiple becomes defensible and the analyst targets look achievable; if conversion remains lumpy at ~3% growth, further dilution and multiple compression toward historical trough levels are the likely path. The binary nature of mission execution and NASA task-order awards means this is a catalyst-driven speculative position rather than a fundamentals-compounding investment at present.
Bullish
- Analyst consensus overwhelmingly bullish: Nine analysts rate the stock 9 Buy / 0 Hold / 1 Sell, producing a 'strong_buy' consensus with a recommendation mean of 1.3. The average target of $27.11 implies roughly +125% upside from the current $12.04, and Stifel upgraded from Hold to Buy on 2026-08-14, suggesting the sell-side views the 66% six-month decline as dislocation rather than deterioration.
- $1.8B backlog with seven NASA missions: The company carries a reported $1.8 billion backlog and seven NASA missions on its manifest, giving multi-year revenue visibility that most space pure-plays lack. This backlog is roughly 2.2x the analyst forward revenue estimate of ~$2.05 billion's implied annual run-rate and underpins the 2027 profitability guidance.
- Gross margin recovery from negative base: Q2 2026 gross margin recovered to 17.40% ($35.87 million gross profit) from a deeply negative -23.54% in Q2 2025, and Q1 2026 posted 38.99%. The swing from negative to positive gross profit demonstrates that the cost-of-revenue structure can scale, which is the key precondition for the 2027 profitability target.
- Strong liquidity and low leverage: The current ratio of 4.96 and $379.02 million in cash at Q2 2026 provide a meaningful runway against a -$190.51 million TTM free cash flow burn. With no traditional debt burden (negative D/E of -0.50 reflects negative equity, not leverage), the company has funded growth through equity rather than debt, avoiding refinancing risk.
Bearish
- Revenue growth decelerated to 3.1%: Q2 2026 revenue of $206.17 million grew just 3.10% year-over-year, a sharp deceleration from the prior-year comparison and far below what a 9.22x PS multiple requires. The sequential increase from $186.73 million in Q1 was modest, confirming that backlog conversion is lumpy and mission-timing dependent rather than a smooth ramp.
- Heavy cash burn and serial dilution: TTM free cash flow is -$190.51 million, with Q2 2026 alone at -$83.87 million (operating cash flow of -$59.80 million less $24.07 million capex). The company issued $238.77 million of common stock in Q2 2026 alone, lifting shares outstanding from 147.88 million to 162.17 million — roughly 9.7% dilution in a single quarter — and further raises remain likely until cash flow turns positive.
- Deeply unprofitable with negative margins: Q2 2026 net income was -$46.45 million on a -22.53% net margin, with operating margin at -22.86% and operating income of -$47.14 million. SG&A of $60.35 million plus R&D of $7.73 million means the company must roughly double revenue at expanding gross margins to reach the 2027 profitability target.
- Severe downtrend and high volatility: The stock is down 66.26% over six months and 32.66% YTD, with a max drawdown of -81.14% and a beta of 1.907. At $12.04 it sits at roughly 11% of its 52-week range ($7.78-$46.75), and relative strength of -24.62 over three months versus the S&P 500 confirms persistent underperformance that technicals alone will not reverse.
LUNR Technical Analysis
Intuitive Machines is in a pronounced downtrend that has erased most of its earlier gains, with the stock down 66.26% over six months and 32.66% year-to-date despite a still-positive 25.55% one-year return that reflects a strong first half followed by a severe second-half collapse. At $12.04, the stock sits at roughly 11% of its 52-week range (52-week low of $7.78, high of $46.75), positioning it deep in the lower quartile of its annual band — a zone that historically signals either capitulation/value-hunting or a falling knife, and the -81.14% max drawdown underscores how punishing the decline has been for holders. The trend structure is clearly broken, with the price trading far below where it sat in May and June 2026 when it briefly touched the mid-$40s.
Short-term momentum is mixed but tilting negative: the stock is down 8.72% over the past month and 26.94% over three months, both sharply worse than the S&P 500's -3.32% and -2.32% respective moves, producing relative strength readings of -5.40 (1-month) and -24.62 (3-month) that confirm significant underperformance versus the market. However, the most recent session shows a violent counter-trend bounce, with the stock surging 14.99% on the day (from a previous close of $10.47 to $12.04) on elevated volume of 18.3 million shares, suggesting short-covering or speculative dip-buying after the stock probed toward its 52-week low of $7.78 in early November. This divergence — a sharp one-day spike within a multi-month downtrend — often signals either a tradable mean-reversion rally or a dead-cat bounce, and the 4.44 short ratio indicates a heavily shorted float that can amplify such squeezes.
Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $7.78, and a breakdown below that level would signal a fresh leg lower and likely trigger momentum-driven selling, while resistance is anchored at the 52-week high of $46.75, with intermediate overhead supply likely in the $15-$20 zone where the stock consolidated in August and September. A decisive breakout above resistance would require a fundamental catalyst (contract awards, successful mission, or financing clarity) rather than technicals alone. With a beta of 1.907, the stock is roughly 90% more volatile than the broader market, meaning position sizing must account for outsize drawdown risk — a 1.9 beta implies moves nearly double the market's in either direction, which is critical for risk management in a name already exhibiting -81% peak-to-trough declines.
Beta
1.91
1.91x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-81.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$8-$47
Price range past year
Annual Return
+19.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | LUNR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -10.5% | -3.7% |
| 3m | -30.3% | -2.9% |
| 6m | -67.7% | +0.2% |
| 1y | +19.7% | +10.1% |
| ytd | -33.9% | +10.0% |
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LUNR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing but decelerating sharply at the margin: Q2 2026 revenue came in at $206.17 million, up just 3.10% year-over-year, a marked slowdown from the explosive growth implied by the prior-year comparison (Q2 2025 revenue was $50.31 million, so the YoY base effect is now comping against a much larger number). Sequentially, revenue rose modestly from $186.73 million in Q1 2026, and the segment mix is heavily weighted toward Product at $166.74 million versus Service at $36.68 million, meaning hardware/spacecraft delivery is the primary growth engine while services remain a smaller contributor. The $1.8 billion backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility, but the tepid 3.1% YoY growth rate suggests conversion is lumpy and mission-timing dependent, which is the central execution risk in the investment case.
The company remains unprofitable, with Q2 2026 net income of -$46.45 million and a net margin of -22.53%, though this is a dramatic improvement from the -$38.59 million loss on a -76.70% net margin in Q2 2025. Gross margin has been volatile but is recovering: Q2 2026 gross margin was 17.40% ($35.87 million gross profit) versus a deeply negative -23.54% in Q2 2025, and Q1 2026 posted a stronger 38.99% gross margin, indicating margin compression in Q2 driven by cost of revenue rising to $170.30 million. Operating margin remains negative at -22.86% (operating income of -$47.14 million), and with SG&A at $60.35 million and R&D at $7.73 million, the company is still spending heavily to scale — profitability by 2027, as some analysts project, requires both revenue acceleration and sustained gross margin expansion.
The balance sheet is a tale of two signals: liquidity is strong with a current ratio of 4.96 and $379.02 million in cash at the end of Q2 2026, but the company is burning cash aggressively, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of -$190.51 million and Q2 2026 FCF of -$83.87 million (operating cash flow of -$59.80 million less $24.07 million capex). The negative debt-to-equity ratio of -0.50 reflects negative shareholders' equity, a red flag, and the company has been funding itself through equity issuance — $238.77 million in common stock issued in Q2 2026 alone — which is highly dilutive (shares outstanding rose from 147.88 million in Q1 to 162.17 million in Q2). ROE of 11.13% is technically positive but distorted by negative equity, while ROA of -5.52% confirms the asset base is not yet generating returns; the company depends on external financing to fund growth until cash flow turns positive.
Quarterly Revenue
$206168000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+309.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
17.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-190506000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is LUNR Overvalued?
Because Intuitive Machines has negative net income (Q2 2026 net income of -$46.45 million, trailing EPS of -$0.043), the PE ratio is not meaningful — the trailing PE of -23.19 and forward PE of -77.68 are artifacts of losses, so the appropriate primary metric is the price-to-sales ratio. The stock trades at a PS ratio of 9.22x and an EV/Sales of 6.39x, which is rich for a company growing revenue at just 3.1% YoY, though the forward-looking analyst revenue estimate of approximately $2.05 billion (versus current quarterly run-rate of ~$206 million) implies the market is pricing in a massive step-up in revenue that would bring the forward PS down materially if achieved.
Peer comparison is constrained by the absence of a clean industry-average multiple in the provided valuation data, but contextually, a 9.22x PS and 6.39x EV/Sales sit at a premium to most aerospace & defense primes (typically 1-3x sales) and are more in line with high-growth space/defense disruptors. The premium is difficult to justify on current fundamentals — a -39.65% net margin, -41.53% operating margin, and 15.62% gross margin are well below what a premium-multiple company should deliver — suggesting the valuation is a bet on backlog conversion and 2027 profitability rather than present profitability. The negative PB ratio of -2.59 (reflecting negative book value) and negative PCF of -135.26 further underscore that traditional value metrics offer no support.
Historically, the stock's PS ratio has been extremely volatile, ranging from roughly 1.76x in Q4 2023 to 43.24x in Q4 2025, with the current 9.22x sitting in the lower-middle portion of that band — well below the 16.83x seen in Q2 2026 and the 14.70x in Q1 2026, but above the single-digit lows of 2023-2024. This suggests the market has de-rated the stock substantially from its peak optimism (when PS exceeded 40x) but has not fully reset it to historical trough levels, implying investors still embed meaningful growth expectations. The PEG ratio of 0.27 is optically attractive but unreliable given negative earnings; the more telling signal is that the de-rating from 43x to 9x PS reflects waning confidence in the growth story, and further multiple compression is a real risk if backlog conversion disappoints.
PE
-23.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 0x~3x
vs. Industry Avg
37.1x
Industry PE ~37.1x*
EV/EBITDA
-23.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are substantial and quantifiable. The company burned -$190.51 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, with Q2 2026 alone at -$83.87 million, against $379.02 million in cash — implying roughly four to five quarters of runway at the current burn rate before another capital raise is required. Dilution is already material: shares outstanding rose from 147.88 million in Q1 2026 to 162.17 million in Q2, a 9.7% quarterly increase driven by $238.77 million of stock issuance, and negative shareholders' equity (D/E of -0.50) means the balance sheet offers no cushion. Revenue concentration compounds this: Q2 2026 revenue of $206.17 million grew only 3.10% YoY, with Product at $166.74 million versus Service at $36.68 million, so the entire thesis hinges on lumpy, mission-timing-dependent hardware deliveries to a small number of government customers.
Market and competitive risks center on valuation compression and an evolving competitive field. At 9.22x PS and 6.39x EV/Sales, LUNR trades at a steep premium to aerospace & defense primes (typically 1-3x sales) despite a -39.65% net margin and 15.62% gross margin, leaving little room for disappointment; the multiple has already compressed from 43.24x in Q4 2025, and a further reset toward the 2023-2024 single-digit lows is plausible. The beta of 1.907 means the stock moves nearly twice the market in either direction, amplifying sector rotation out of speculative space names. Recent news highlights emerging threats: Voyager's Astrobotic acquisition and inclusion in NASA's ~$10 billion lunar cargo contract creates a direct competitor for the same task orders, which are competitive and not guaranteed, while MDA Space's $620 million US defense acquisition adds a profitable, well-capitalized rival targeting the same customer base.
The worst-case scenario is a chain of mission delay or failure combined with a NASA task-order loss and a subsequent emergency capital raise at a depressed price. In that path, revenue growth stalls below the current 3.1%, the 2027 profitability target slips, and the stock retests its 52-week low of $7.78 — a decline of roughly -35% from the current $12.04. A more severe outcome, consistent with the -81.14% historical max drawdown, would see the stock fall toward the $5-$6 range if dilution accelerates and the PS multiple compresses toward 4-5x on stagnant revenue, implying losses of -50% to -58% from current levels. The lone sell-side bear (BofA at Underperform) and the $13.00 low analyst target bracket the near-term downside, but the historical drawdown shows the tail risk is considerably deeper than the low target implies.
FAQ
From a pure risk/reward standpoint, LUNR offers an asymmetric but highly uncertain payoff: the $27.11 average analyst target implies roughly +125% upside from $12.04, while the 52-week low of $7.78 implies about -35% downside and the -81.14% historical max drawdown shows losses can go far deeper in a bad scenario. The fundamental case is not yet supportive — revenue grew just 3.10% YoY in Q2 2026, TTM free cash flow is -$190.51 million, and the company diluted shareholders by 9.7% in a single quarter — so the upside depends on backlog conversion and mission execution rather than current earnings. The 9 Buy / 0 Hold / 1 Sell consensus with a recommendation mean of 1.3 signals strong sell-side conviction, but the $13.00-$39.00 target range and BofA's lone Underperform show that conviction is not universal. It is a reasonable buy only for risk-tolerant investors with a multi-year horizon who size the position small enough to absorb a further 35-50% drawdown, and it is not a good buy for anyone seeking near-term earnings support or capital preservation.