Monolithic Power Systems
MPWR
$1374.13
+4.46%
Monolithic Power Systems (MPS) is a fabless analog and mixed-signal semiconductor company specializing in high-efficiency power management solutions for computing, automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer markets. It differentiates itself through proprietary BCD process technology and a focus on energy efficiency, positioning it as a key enabler in the growing power management space. The current investor narrative centers on MPS's accelerating growth driven by AI-related power demands, with recent earnings beats and analyst upgrades fueling optimism, though its elevated valuation remains a point of debate.…
MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems
$1374.13
Related headlines
MPWR 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Monolithic Power Systems's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1786.37 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$1786.37
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$1099 - $1786
Analyst target range
Only 3 analysts cover MPWR, which is low for a $64.5B market cap company, likely due to its niche focus. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly provided, but the average estimated EPS is $46.75, with revenue estimates averaging $6.80B. The average target price is not directly given, but using the forward PE of 42.5x and estimated EPS of $46.75 implies a target of ~$1,987, representing 54% upside from the current price of $1,288.16. This suggests a bullish consensus. The estimated EPS range is $44.53 to $49.97, and revenue range is $6.55B to $7.16B. The wide spread (12% for EPS, 9% for revenue) indicates high uncertainty about the pace of AI-driven growth. The high end of the range implies strong AI adoption and margin expansion, while the low end reflects potential competitive pressures or demand normalization. Recent ratings from firms like Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Needham are all Buy/Overweight, with no downgrades, reinforcing positive sentiment. However, the limited coverage means less efficient price discovery and potentially higher volatility.
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MPWR Technical Analysis
MPWR has been in a strong long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +68.5%. The current price of $1,288.16 sits at 75.1% of its 52-week range ($686.87 low to $1,714.09 high), indicating the stock is still in the upper half of its range but has pulled back from the highs. This positioning suggests the stock retains upward momentum but may be experiencing a corrective phase after reaching near-term peaks. Short-term momentum has diverged sharply from the long-term trend: the 1-month change is -20.7%, while the 3-month change is +15.2%. This divergence signals a significant pullback from the April highs, potentially a mean-reversion move or profit-taking after a rapid run-up. The relative strength vs. SPY over 1 month is -19.5%, confirming underperformance. The stock's beta of 1.71 indicates it is 71% more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves. The 52-week high of $1,714.09 acts as key resistance; a breakout above that level would signal renewed bullish momentum. The 52-week low of $686.87 provides support, though the stock is far above that. Given the recent sharp decline from the high, the next support zone may be around the $1,300 area (recent lows). The high beta suggests aggressive position sizing should be tempered with risk management.
Beta
1.71
1.71x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-24.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$687-$1714
Price range past year
Annual Return
+82.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MPWR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -10.3% | +2.0% |
| 3m | +1.5% | +10.6% |
| 6m | +43.3% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +82.9% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +46.8% | +10.2% |
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MPWR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been robust and accelerating. In Q4 2025, revenue reached $751.2 million, up 20.8% year-over-year, following a 19.0% increase in Q3 2025 ($737.2 million) and a 31.0% jump in Q2 2025 ($664.6 million). The sequential acceleration from Q1 2025 ($637.6 million) to Q4 2025 highlights strong demand, particularly in DC-to-DC products ($616.1 million in the latest segment data), which dominate revenue. This growth trajectory supports the investment case for AI-driven power management expansion. Profitability is solid and improving. Net income in Q4 2025 was $170.1 million, with a net margin of 22.6%, up from 20.2% in Q2 2025. Gross margin remained stable at 55.2% in Q4 2025, consistent with the 55.1-55.4% range over the past year. Operating margin improved to 26.6% in Q4 2025 from 24.8% in Q2 2025, indicating operating leverage. The company is profitable with a trailing PE of 70.7x, but the forward PE of 42.5x suggests expected earnings growth. The balance sheet is pristine. Debt-to-equity is a mere 0.007, and the current ratio is 5.91, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) was $664.2 million, translating to a free cash flow yield of about 1.5% based on the current market cap. ROE is 17.4%, reflecting efficient capital use. The company generates sufficient cash to fund operations and growth internally, with no reliance on external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$751155000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+20.83%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
55.15%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$664189000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MPWR Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the trailing PE ratio of 70.7x is the primary valuation metric. The forward PE of 42.5x implies the market expects significant earnings growth, with the gap between trailing and forward PE suggesting a 40% earnings increase over the next year. This is consistent with the estimated EPS growth to $46.75 in the coming year. Compared to the semiconductor industry average PE of roughly 25x, MPWR trades at a 183% premium. This premium is partially justified by its superior revenue growth (20.8% YoY vs. industry average ~10%) and high gross margins (55.2% vs. industry ~50%). However, the magnitude of the premium suggests high growth expectations are already priced in. Historically, MPWR's trailing PE has ranged from 35x to 100x over the past five years. The current 70.7x is above the midpoint of that range, indicating the stock is not at historical extremes but is on the higher end. This suggests the market is pricing in optimistic future growth, leaving limited room for error. If growth disappoints, multiple compression could be significant.
PE
70.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~99x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
52.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
