NiSource
NI
$46.66
-0.41%
NiSource Inc. is a regulated natural gas and electric utility company serving approximately 3.8 million customers across seven states, primarily in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. As one of the largest natural gas distribution companies in the U.S., it operates a diversified portfolio of regulated utilities, including gas-only and combined gas-electric operations, with a growing focus on renewable energy. The current investor narrative centers on NiSource's multi-year capital investment plan to modernize infrastructure and expand renewable generation, driving rate base growth and earnings visibility, while regulatory proceedings and interest rate sensitivity remain key debates.…
NI
NiSource
$46.66
NI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on NiSource's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $60.66 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$60.66
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$37 - $61
Analyst target range
Only 3 analysts cover NiSource, with a consensus recommendation leaning bullish (2 Buy/Outperform, 1 Hold/Neutral). The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $2.89, with a range of $2.78 to $2.98. Revenue estimates average $9.12 billion, with a low of $8.87 billion and high of $9.34 billion. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the forward P/E of 21.3x and estimated EPS of $2.89, the implied target is approximately $61.50, suggesting 28.6% upside from the current price of $47.82. The consensus is bullish, reflecting confidence in the company's growth plan. The limited analyst coverage (3 analysts) is typical for a mid-cap utility, which can lead to less efficient price discovery and higher volatility. The lack of a formal target range from the data limits the ability to assess conviction, but the narrow EPS range ($2.78–$2.98) suggests relatively low uncertainty in earnings expectations. Recent rating actions show upgrades from Jefferies (Hold to Buy) and maintained Overweight/Outperform ratings from Wells Fargo, Barclays, and Mizuho, indicating positive sentiment. However, the small coverage base means investors should supplement with broader research.
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NI Technical Analysis
NiSource is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 21.3% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500's 19.1% gain. The current price of $47.82 sits at 96.7% of its 52-week range ($38.45–$49.21), indicating the stock is near the top of its range and reflecting strong momentum. This positioning near highs suggests bullish sentiment but also potential overextension, as the stock may be pricing in optimistic expectations. Short-term momentum is mixed: the 1-month return of +4.3% shows acceleration, while the 3-month return of +0.7% is nearly flat, indicating a recent deceleration from the longer-term uptrend. This divergence could signal a temporary consolidation phase or a pause before the next leg higher, especially as the 1-month relative strength vs. SPY is +5.5%, confirming near-term outperformance. The 52-week low of $38.45 provides strong support, while the 52-week high of $49.21 acts as immediate resistance. A breakout above $49.21 would signal continued upside momentum, potentially targeting new highs, while a breakdown below $38.45 would negate the uptrend. With a beta of 0.54, NiSource is significantly less volatile than the market, making it a defensive holding that may lag in strong rallies but hold up better during downturns.
Beta
0.54
0.54x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-9.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$38-$49
Price range past year
Annual Return
+18.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.7% | +2.0% |
| 3m | -2.9% | +10.6% |
| 6m | +11.0% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +18.6% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +10.7% | +10.2% |
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NI Fundamental Analysis
NiSource's revenue trajectory is growing, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting revenue of $1.90 billion, up 19.9% year-over-year from $1.59 billion in Q4 2024. This growth is driven by rate increases and customer growth, though revenue is seasonal, with Q1 typically the strongest due to winter heating demand. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue totaled $6.64 billion, up from $5.45 billion in the prior TTM period, indicating accelerating growth. The company's regulated utility model provides stable, predictable revenue streams, but growth is dependent on regulatory approvals and capital deployment. Profitability is solid: net income for Q4 2025 was $257.8 million, with a net margin of 13.5%, up from 14.1% in Q4 2024. Gross margin improved to 58.1% from 49.7% a year ago, reflecting better cost management and rate design. Operating margin of 27.1% is healthy for a regulated utility, though interest expense of $187.3 million in Q4 2025 weighs on net income. The company is profitable and generates consistent earnings, with EPS of $0.54 in Q4 2025. NiSource's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.72, which is elevated but typical for capital-intensive utilities. Free cash flow was negative $134 million in Q4 2025, and TTM free cash flow is -$420 million, reflecting heavy capital expenditures of $846 million in Q4 alone. The company relies on external financing (debt and equity) to fund its capex program, as evidenced by $446.5 million in debt repayment and $53 million in common stock issued in Q4. ROE of 9.8% is reasonable for the sector, but the negative free cash flow yield (-2.1% based on market cap) indicates that the company is not self-funding its growth, increasing financial risk.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+19.85%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
58.12%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-419999999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NI Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 21.3x, while the forward P/E is 21.3x (based on estimated EPS of $2.89), implying the market expects stable earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 1.05x suggests the stock is fairly valued relative to its growth rate. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22.0x (estimated), NiSource trades at a slight 3% discount, which is justified by its lower growth profile and higher leverage. The stock's P/B ratio of 2.09x is above the industry average of 1.8x, indicating a premium on book value, likely due to its regulated asset base and consistent returns. Historically, NiSource's trailing P/E has ranged from 7.6x (Q1 2022) to 54.0x (Q3 2025), with the current 21.3x near the middle of that range. This suggests the stock is not overly expensive or cheap relative to its own history, but the wide historical range reflects earnings volatility from seasonal and regulatory factors. The current P/E is below the 5-year average of ~25x, indicating potential value if earnings growth materializes.
PE
21.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 8x~54x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
11.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
