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National Oilwell Varco

NOV

$19.96

-2.73%

NOV Inc. is a leading global provider of equipment and components for the oil and gas industry, designing, manufacturing, and selling a comprehensive portfolio that includes rig equipment, downhole tools, drill pipe, and well casing. The company operates as a major integrated supplier across two primary segments—energy products and services and energy equipment—serving a diverse customer base from major integrated oil companies to independent drilling contractors. The current investor narrative is shaped by management's demonstrated confidence in the company's financial stability, as evidenced by a recent substantial 20% dividend increase, which signals a focus on shareholder returns amidst ongoing volatility in energy capital expenditure cycles. This move highlights a strategic pivot towards capital discipline and cash flow generation, even as the broader industry navigates uncertain demand and pricing environments.…

Should I buy NOV
Bobby Quantitative Model
Jun 16, 2026

NOV

National Oilwell Varco

$19.96

-2.73%
Jun 16, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
NOV Inc. is a leading global provider of equipment and components for the oil and gas industry, designing, manufacturing, and selling a comprehensive portfolio that includes rig equipment, downhole tools, drill pipe, and well casing. The company operates as a major integrated supplier across two primary segments—energy products and services and energy equipment—serving a diverse customer base from major integrated oil companies to independent drilling contractors. The current investor narrative is shaped by management's demonstrated confidence in the company's financial stability, as evidenced by a recent substantial 20% dividend increase, which signals a focus on shareholder returns amidst ongoing volatility in energy capital expenditure cycles. This move highlights a strategic pivot towards capital discipline and cash flow generation, even as the broader industry navigates uncertain demand and pricing environments.
Should I buy NOV

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NOV 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $19.96
Average Target $19.96
High Target $22.954
Low Target $16.966

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on National Oilwell Varco's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $25.95 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$25.95

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$16 - $26

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage for NOV is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is not a widely followed large-cap name and may suffer from less efficient price discovery. The consensus sentiment appears mixed, with recent institutional ratings showing a diversity of opinions including a 'Sell' from Goldman Sachs, 'Neutral' from Citigroup and Piper Sandler, and 'Buy' from Stifel and TD Cowen. The average revenue estimate for the forward period is $9.57 billion, with a range from $9.09 billion to $9.94 billion, suggesting moderate growth expectations. The wide target price range implied by the revenue estimates, coupled with the divergent analyst actions (e.g., Barclays upgraded from Underweight to Equal Weight, while others maintained neutral stances), signals high uncertainty and low conviction regarding the company's near-term trajectory. This limited and fragmented coverage environment means stock moves can be more volatile and driven by company-specific news, such as the recent dividend announcement, rather than broad analyst consensus.

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NOV Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend, having gained 66.67% over the past year, and is currently trading at approximately 93.5% of its 52-week range, with a price of $20.00 against a 52-week high of $21.38. This positioning near the high end of the range indicates strong bullish momentum but also suggests the stock may be approaching a technical resistance level where profit-taking could emerge. The 6-month price change of 22.55% further confirms the strength of the intermediate-term uptrend. Recent momentum shows a notable divergence, with the stock up only 0.70% over the past month, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 5.26% gain, as indicated by a relative strength of -4.56. This 1-month underperformance, contrasted with the robust 1-year return, signals a potential consolidation or short-term exhaustion following the prior strong advance, rather than an immediate trend reversal. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate resistance at the 52-week high of $21.38 and support at the 52-week low of $11.65. A decisive breakout above $21.38 would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a breakdown below recent consolidation lows near $19.00 could indicate a deeper pullback. The stock's beta of 0.92 indicates it is slightly less volatile than the broader market, which is atypical for the cyclical oilfield services sector and may reflect its diversified business model and stable cash flows, influencing risk-adjusted positioning.

Beta

0.91

0.91x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-16.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$12-$22

Price range past year

Annual Return

+45.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodNOV ReturnS&P 500
1m-2.0%+1.5%
3m+9.4%+13.4%
6m+28.4%+10.9%
1y+45.8%+24.5%
ytd+21.6%+10.0%

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NOV Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $2.277 billion representing a year-over-year decline of 1.34%. Analyzing the quarterly trend, revenue peaked at $2.308 billion in Q4 2024, declined through the first three quarters of 2025, and showed a slight sequential increase in Q4 2025, suggesting potential stabilization but not yet a clear reacceleration. The company's profitability is volatile, as evidenced by a net income of -$78 million in the latest quarter, swinging from a profit of $42 million in Q3 2025. The gross margin for the quarter was 20.29%, which is consistent with the trailing twelve-month gross margin of 20.21%, indicating stable pricing power despite revenue fluctuations. The net margin for the period was a negative 3.43%, highlighting the challenge of translating top-line stability to the bottom line in the current cost environment. Balance sheet health is a relative strength, with a solid current ratio of 2.42 and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37. More importantly, the company generated robust free cash flow of $876 million over the trailing twelve months, providing ample internal funding for operations, the recently increased dividend, and potential share repurchases. The return on equity of 2.31% remains low, reflecting the cyclical pressure on earnings, but the strong cash generation mitigates near-term financial risk.

Quarterly Revenue

$2.3B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.01%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.20%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$876000000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Royalty

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Valuation Analysis: Is NOV Overvalued?

Given the company's positive net income on a trailing basis (EPS of $0.025), the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E is exceptionally high at 40.1x, which is distorted by the low earnings base, while the forward P/E is a more reasonable 15.2x, indicating the market expects significant earnings recovery in the coming year. The large gap between trailing and forward multiples underscores the market's anticipation of a sharp profit rebound from recent depressed levels. Compared to sector peers, NOV trades at a discount on a Price-to-Sales basis, with a PS ratio of 0.66, which is typically below the average for oilfield equipment and services companies that often trade between 1.0x and 2.0x sales. This sales multiple discount may reflect investor skepticism about near-term revenue growth or margin prospects relative to more specialized service providers. Historically, the stock's current PS ratio of 0.66 is near the lower end of its own range observed over recent quarters, which has fluctuated from approximately 2.1x to 4.9x over the past two years. Trading near historical lows on a sales multiple suggests the stock is pricing in significant pessimism, potentially offering a value opportunity if the company can demonstrate a sustained earnings recovery and cash flow stability as hinted by the dividend increase.

PE

40.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -55x~49x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

8.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple

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